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Investment Strategies

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Added on  2023/01/19

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This document discusses various investment strategies for analyzing opportunities in other countries. It covers topics such as purchasing power parity, arbitrage, covered and uncovered interest arbitrage, and comparison of investment strategies. The document provides insights into risk evaluation, cross currency conversions, and projected returns.

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INVESTMENT STRATEGIES
NAME OF STUDENT
NAME OF UNIVERSITY

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................3
A.Purhasing power parity ............................................................................................................4
B.Arbitrage ..................................................................................................................................5
C.Covered and Uncovered interest arbitrage................................................................................6
D.Investment Strategies................................................................................................................8
E. Comparison and contrast of investment strategies...................................................................9
Referencies.................................................................................................................................10
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Executive summary.
The investment strategies that one can use when analysing opportunities in another country. Such
investment requires one to carefully evaluate the opportunities and the risk involved in cross
currency conversions, subsequent investments and the exit process from an investment.
The first point of call to check is the purchasing power parity of the targeted country to evaluate if
cost of living is deemed expensive when compared with the US dollar. South Korea has the highest
purchasing power and stable exchange rate hence it is more suitable for investing as the returns are
higher and predictable.
The strategy of arbitrage of interest rates which measures the return of transferring cash from one
country to another, investing in that country and the exiting the investment by converting the
proceeds to the currency of the home country. In our case India is preferred as the local interest
rates are relatively higher and has as stable exchange rate.
Covered interest arbitrage is another strategy that will lock the exchange rate at the point of exiting
the investment in a foreign country. This locked rate gives the investors assurance of an agreed
exchange rate. This method requires one to pay a premium for that assurance. Since it is possible to
project the gains in advance, this method is usually preferred as it insures the investor against a loss
if the exchange rate. On the other hand, the investor cannot gain any changes in exchange rate that
may favour them. Our analysis show India and South Korea offer the best returns on the strength of
higher interest rates and stable exchange rate.
Another method is comparing two investment strategies within one country. In our analysis we have
sampled investing in crypto currencies and monetary markets. Our conclusion indicates that
investing in Bitcoin GBP will offer the best return.
The strategy that an investor will use will depend on the risk appetite, time and projected returns.
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Analysis
A. Purchasing power parity
Purchasing power parity trends for the three countries are tabulated in table 2 below.
The purchasing power parity is simply calculated by dividing the cost of in local prices of a basket of
goods in country against the equivalent in UD dollars (The Balance,2019).
A review of the trends shows that South Korea has the highest purchasing power parity, followed by
India and lastly by Singapore. This means that the South Korean cost of living is the lowest as
compared to the other two countries. Singapore stands out because its purchasing power parity is
less that one, it averages 0.8 Singapore dollar to 1 US dollar.
The purchasing power parity across the three countries indicate that handbags in Singapore are
overvalued while South Korea is greatly undervalued.
However, the purchasing power parity is not enough to for us to conclude that the handbags are
relatively cheaper in South Korea and expensive in Singapore.
All the three countries dollar exchange rates data show that the US dollar is stronger than the local
currencies, with South Korea requiring more of its currency to exchange for one dollar.
The implications for business on the purchasing power parity and exchange rates trends show that it
is it is important to consider countries with a stable exchange rate and where the products are not
overvalued to the US dollar. South Korea has the highest purchasing power parity indicating that it
the items are relatively cheaper. The South Korean exchange rate to the dollar is also relatively
stable and has few swings with the average change in the six-month interval being 5%. Singapore on
the other hand a low purchasing power parity indication the handbags are relatively overvalued. The
currency is weaker than the US dollar and has been appreciating for extended periods. This may be a
tricky business environment for a business to operate in.

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Table 1.
10/10/2006 7/6/2009 4/1/2012 12/27/2014 9/22/2017 6/18/2020
-
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
Purchasing Parity
Purchasing Power parity S.Korea Dollar exchange rate S.Korea
Series6 Purchasing Power parity Singapore
Dollar exchange rate Singapore Series12
Purchasing Power parity India Dollar exchange rate India
B. Arbitrage
The arbitrage of transferring & 15m through fiat currency (Investopedia ,2019) to the three markets
of South Korea, Singapore and India. The &15 will be converted to the respective countries
currency ,invested and the recovered to Pounds again on maturity of the investment.
Table 2
Exchange rates as at 20th April 2019.
Currency Expected spot
rate
forward rate Money market
Rate
(Analytics,2019)
Singapore Pound 1,76 0,507719 1,66
South Korean 1476,8 0,000583484 1,76
Indian Rupee 90,2 0,010681 5,75
1 Singapore South Korea Indian Rupee
FIAT (Convert to local
currency at expected spot
rate) 26 400 000,00 22 152 000 000,00 1 353 000 000,00
2 Money market option
Interest rate @ money
market rate multiplied
fiat currency 438 240,00 389 875 200,00 77 797 500,00
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3 Add the gains to fiat currency investment
1+2 26 838 240,00 22 541 875 200,00 1 430 797 500,00
4
Convert sum of
investment and gains to
Great Britain pound at
forward exchange rate
4,
a
I will assume a 5%
depreciation from the
current price 1,848 1550,64 94,71
3/4, a 14 522 857,14 14 537 142,86 15 107 142,86
6 Gain or loss on strategy
Sum of gain or loss and
investment less initial
investment
Option 1 - 477 142,86 - 462 857,14 107 142,86
A review of the arbitrage (Corporate Finance Institute,2019) opportunity of investing in the money
market shows that the highest gain will be realised in India’s local interest market. This is simply
because of the high interest rate offered in that space. This is also helped by the stable currency
which does not experience changes that could wipe out the gains. The same strategy has returned a
loss in Singapore and South Korea due to the low interest rate applicable in the country. The interest
rates applicable are not sufficient to cover the exchange rate risk on the markets . This is a very
important measure that will be used the strategies available to make gains in the markets.
C. Covered and Uncovered interest arbitrage.
Covered interest arbitrage and uncovered interest arbitrage (Connell,2019) are strategies that rely
on taking advantage of interest rate differentials between two markets which have different
currencies. Covered interest arbitrage will have the added advantage of hedging the foreign
exchange risk. This is done by locking the exchange rate in future by agreeing on such a rate now.
The investor will have to pay a premium. In our example where I have simulated investing USD
100,000 in the three countries. The interest to be gained on the 9 months is then added to the
investment and the funds are the converted back to dollars. A premium must be paid for to the
hedging provider.
The second option of uncovered interest is where the investor does not lock or hedge the future
exchange rate that will be used to settle the transaction. There is exposure in the sense that the
future exchange rate may wipe out any gain the investor may have had in the opportunity of
investing in the interest rate differential.
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In our case, it is evident that the covered interest arbitrage returns a better margin in two countries
out of three, that is India and South Korea. India also return the best margin due to the relatively
higher interest rate and stable exchange rate.
Table 3.
South Korea Singapore India
Forward ratio 0,000586398 0,507719 0,010681
Expected spot rate 0,000583484 0,508227 0,010511
Money market interest rate 0,5 0,5 0,5
local interest rate 2,5 0,1 7
Spot rate for the dollars
(XE.com ,2019) 0,0008
8
0,7
4
0,01
4
Scenario 1
Covered interest arbitrage
Computation of arbitrage
opportunity. assuming a USD
100,000.00 investment
1
Convert USD to fiat currency (spot
rate times investment in dollars) 113 636 363,64 135 135,14 7 142 857,14
2, a
Calculate applicable interest rate for
nine months 2 130 681,82 101,35 375 000,00
2, b
Calculate money market interest rate
for nine months 426 136,36 506,76 26 785,71
3 sum of gain or loss and investment (1+2)
local interest rate 115 767 045,45 135 236,49 7 517 857,14
money market interest rate 114 062 500,00 135 641,89 7 169 642,86
4 Convert to dollars at forward rate
local interest rate option 67 885,54 68 662,13 80 298,23
money market interest rate option 66 886,00 68 867,97 76 578,96
Scenario 2
uncovered interest arbitrage
Computation of arbitrage
opportunity. assuming a USD
100,000.00 investment
1
Convert USD to fiat currency (spot
rate times investment in dollars) 113 636 363,64 135 135,14 7 142 857,14
2, a Calculate applicable interest rate for 2 130 681,82 101,35 375 000,00

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nine months
2, b
Calculate money market interest rate
for nine months 426 136,36 506,76 26 785,71
3
sum of gain or loss and investment
(1+2)
local interest rate 115 767 045,45 135 236,49 7 517 857,14
money market interest rate 114 062 500,00 135 641,89 7 169 642,86
4 Convert to dollars at expected spot rate
local interest rate option 67 548,22 68 730,83 79 020,20
money market interest rate option 66 553,64 68 936,87 75 360,12
5 covered arbitrage from 5 above
local interest rate option 67 885,54 68 662,13 80 298,23
money market interest rate option 66 886,00 68 867,97 76 578,96
6 Check for covered and uncovered arbitrage
local interest rate option (4-5 - 337,32
68,7
0 - 1 278,04
money market interest rate option (4-
5) - 332,36
68,9
1 - 1 218,84
D. Investments strategies
The implications of data trends for the nine crypto currencies across the three currencies and
analysing them against the monetary interest rate across three countries show that investing in
BITCOIN GBP has the best returns. However, the return is marginally better than investing in the
monetary market in India at .27% against .22% for India.
Crypto currencies generally returned a lower rate of return investing in the three countries money
markets.
Average daily change in crypto currency price from 6th April to 20th April.
Data has been obtained from Finance.yahoo.com. (2019) from 6th April to 20th April 2019.
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Adjusted money market interest rate for two weeks.
One-year rate
two-week rate (divide
annual rate by 26 weeks)
Singapore Pound 1,66 0,06
South Korean 1,76 0,07
Indian Rupee 5,75 0,22
E. Compare investment strategies.
A review of the various strategies for investing show that trading in other currencies will have a
higher chance of better returns. However, it is equally important to hedge the currency risk. This will
lock the projected returns should the exchange rate have an adverse movement. Other countries
especially the developing ones have a higher interest rate as we have seen with India. This coupled
with stable exchange rate will present an opportunity to take advantage of the interest rates. The
time required for an investment may be long as investing in monetary markets will require one to
lock the funds for one year. This will have the drawback that one will not take part in any
opportunity that may present itself when the funds are locked.
Purchasing power parity method drawback is that the prices of basket of goods include other costs
which are not comparable across countries like cost of insurance, utilities, transport, taxes and
impact of competition on prices.
The default risk is low when we invest in government securities.
For interest covered and uncovered interest arbitrage, the difference is that a premium must be paid
to hedge the future currency conversion. The premium should outweigh the gains to be made in the
whole transaction. It is important to take note of other cost like transactions costs which may make
it expensive to execute a transaction. This is occurring when money is moving across borders and
banks. Each country will have it unique regulations towards foreign currency movement. The
drawback in hedging is that the investor will not gain should the exchange rate movement favour
them. This method assumes that that there is perfect substitutability and free flow of capital for it to
work. However, there could be opportunities even with interest rate parity where the difference in
borrowing and lending rates can lead to riskless yield.
Emerging investment opportunities like Bitcoin also present an equally attractive proposition as we
have seen with the Bitcoin GBP outperforming the interest rate return in India. However, from the
basket of Bitcoin returns, several of them were not performing well as compared to the India’s
monetary interest rate. Some coins have negative returns. This indicates that Bitcoins are relatively
volatile and generally are not performing well. One of the major drawbacks of bitcoin is that being a
relatively new field, a lot of consideration will have to be put in place before investing in the coins.
References
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Connell, S. (2019). Covered and Uncovered Interest Arbitrage Explained with Examples. [online]
Forex Opportunities. Available at: https://forexop.com/strategy/covered-uncovered-interest-arbitrage/
Corporate Finance Institute. (2019). Arbitrage | Definition and Examples - A Common Trading
Strategy. [online] Available at: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-
investing/arbitrage/
Economic Indicators | Moody's Analytics. [online] Economy.com. Available at:
https://www.economy.com/singapore/indicators [Accessed 20 Apr. 2019].
Falk, T. (2019). Cryptocurrency arbitrage made easy: A beginner's guide | finder.com. [online] finder
US. Available at: https://www.finder.com/cryptocurrency-arbitrage
Finance.yahoo.com. (2019). Yahoo is now part of Oath. [online] Available at:
https://finance.yahoo.com/cryptocurrencies [Accessed 20 Apr. 2019].
Investopedia. (2019). Fiat Money. [online] Available at:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiatmoney.asp
Money control. (2019). What is Speculation/Hedging/Arbitrage?. [online] Available at:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/-1360591.html
The Balance. (2019). Why Does a Big Mac Cost a Lot Less in China?. [online] Available at:
https://www.thebalance.com/purchasing-power-parity-3305953
Wall Street Survivor. (2019). Investment Strategies: How To Choose The Right Strategy For You –
Wall Street Survivor. [online] Available at: https://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/starter-
guides/investment-strategies/ [
Xe.com. (2019). XE: Convert GBP/INR. United Kingdom Pound to India Rupee. [online] Available at:
https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=GBP&To=
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