Climate Change Impacts in Victoria, Australia

This report provides a summary of climate change impacts in Victoria, Australia, including changes in rainfall, temperature, bushfires, sea level rise, and effects on infrastructure, agriculture, species and ecosystems, coasts, and human health.

1
Student’s Name
Name of Course
Professor’s Name
University
Date

2
Abstract
The consequences of climate change are already being experienced in Victoria Australia. More
impacts and trends are projected to be felt in all sectors of the economy and in all ecosystems.
Victoria is already becoming more warm and dry and is likely to continue into the future.
Communities, local residents and businesses are changing their ways of operation so as to cope
with the changing climatic conditions. This report gives a summary of the previous research in
Victoria on climate and effects for the past few years, 21st century climate change projections and
projected impacts either direct or indirect as described (Keywood, et al., 2016).
Introduction
The climate in Australia has significantly changed consistently with worldwide trends.
Over the 20th century, Australia's has recorded an average temperatures rise of about 1˚C. The
rising temperatures have led to a decrease in the occurrence of frosts and the number of cold
days while the number of severely hot days rise. The amount of rainfall received in north-west
Australia have been rising as the amount in the south-east and south-west reduce. The levels of
the seas are rising and the oceans are warming as the global average temperatures rise. Victoria's
climate has been changing with the national trends and is expected to keep changing for the
coming years and this may lead to extreme risks and challenges to the nation. The increasing
temperatures have made Victoria very hot and dry, a trend which together with the continued
occurrence of severe events such as bushfires, heatwaves, floods and droughts pose dangerous
risks to the nation's agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems, health, and coasts (Bureau of
Meteorology, 2013).
Climatic Changes that are exposed to Victoria, Australia
Rainfall, floods, and drought
In 2010 and 2011, Victoria received heavy rains but now the conditions are different as it
experiences extreme drying trend of about two decades. There has been a reduction in rainfall by
about 10-20% over the late winter and autumn season. The reduction in the amount of rainfall
has surpassed the projected models for a period of 20 years.

3
La Nina effects and high warm ocean temperatures led to a lot of rains in the years 2010-
2011 resulted in floods in Victoria. The severe floods caused extensive damage to townships,
important services, rural and residential properties, and agriculture. It is projected that for the
coming century, dry conditions will continue across Victoria and average rainfall will decrease
during spring and winter seasons (Raktima, et al., 2019).
Temperature
Since 1960, Victoria's maximum temperature has risen by 1.1˚C while the minimum
temperatures have risen by 0.9 ˚C. The average number of yearly hot days have been increasing.
The number of intensive and too much hot weather days and high-temperature records set in the
summer 2012-2013 was remarkable (Ashcroft, et al., 2012).
Bushfire
From 1973-2010, the Forest Fire Danger Index has significantly risen in Victoria.
Extreme temperatures, low humidity, and high winds are projected to become more common in
future hence triggering intense and large fires. The extent of vegetation necessary for fuelling
fires is expected to increase. By 2020 the number of fire vulnerable days is expected to rise as
average temperature increase by 4%-25% and 15%-70% by 2050 (Hennessy, 2009).
Black Saturday bushfires which occurred in 2009 is the ever most severe Victoria's
bushfire which led to the loss of 173 lives, burnt about 400000 ha, damaged over 2000 properties
and affected 78 communities. The bushfire occurred on one of the driest and hottest summers in
Victoria. The temperature in Melbourne rose to 46.4˚C on Saturday 7 February 2009 without any
rain. The conditions combined with low humidity and high wind speeds formed favourable
conditions for the occurrence of the disaster due to the overall climate change. The fires were
ignited by sparks that were falling from power lines (Cameron, et al., 2009).
Sea Level
Since the late 1980s, there has been a record rise in global sea levels by an average of
about 20cm. The rate of change has been increasing over the past 20years. There is a projection
that a rise of 50-100 cm may occur this century due to the influence of the state of main ice

4
sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The extremely increasing sea levels by the end of the century
will most likely lead to frequent flooding at the coastal region.
Effects of Climate Change and how different Groups and Assets are Vulnerable to the
Changes
Infrastructure
Victoria is a developed locality with good infrastructures like railways, power lines, and
roads. These infrastructures are vulnerable to very hot temperatures which may lead to melting
of bitumen road surfaces, power outages may occur when power lines and station fail, and
railway lines can also buckle. Power outages during heatwaves are sensitive because they happen
when there is a high demand for power to be used for cooling purposes. Failure to use air-
conditioning systems on such hot periods exposes one to illnesses and death. High rainfall events
in Victoria lead to flooding posing extreme risks for agriculture, infrastructure, and health
(Hughes & Steffen, 2013).
Agriculture
Australian farmers have been equipped with significant adaptive capacity in approaching
the current climatic changes. Warming climate does not favour some of the farmers due to
factors such as extended planting seasons and capability of other crops to utilize little soil water
over the growth period because of accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Generally,
climate change is associated with stress on livestock due to too much heat, reduction of irrigation
activities, drop in crop yields, reduction of stone fruit chilling periods and enhancing certain
forms of pest and disease distribution (Loughnan, et al., 2010).
Species and Ecosystem
Geographical features, population sizes of species and their life cycles are projected to be
significantly affected by climate change. Such changes could include advances in life cycles,
slow population growth and breeding chances for wetland birds, saltwater intrusion into coastal
freshwater wetlands, rampant species extinction and abnormal spread of pests. Most of these
changes have already been noted in Victoria.
Coasts

5
Extreme weather events like storms and tides combined with increased sea levels can
frequently drive seawater to nearby coastal areas causing flooding to infrastructure, property, and
beaches in Victoria.
Human Health
Heatwaves and many hot days increase the vulnerability of the population to the risk of
heat-associated illnesses and mortality, especially to the old people. Bushfires case injuries and
deaths, and can even trigger some respiratory infections. Floodwater and soils during heavy
rainfall periods cause diarrhea and some bacterial infections.
The people who are vulnerable to most of the consequences of climate change in Victoria
are the elderly, children, the sick and people who reside in rural areas. In order to reduce the
negative effects of climate change, the healthcare departments in Victoria are already in action
ready to provide health services.
Conclusion
The effects of human-induced climate change have already been felt in Victoria and are
expected to keep increasing for the coming years. Action should be taken in order to protect
society from being undermined by climate change in terms of environment, prosperity, and
health. In order to avoid the severe risks, the society must embrace sustainable development
which emphasizes clean energy and reducing carbon emission to the environment (CSIRO,
2012).

6
References
CSIRO, 2012. Climate and water availability in South-Eastern Australia: A synthesis of findings from
Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian climate Initiative (SEACI). [Online]
Available at: http://www.seaci.org/index.html
[Accessed 19 4 2019].
Bureau of Meteorology, 2013. Annual Australian climate Statement 2012. [Online]
Available at: http:/www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20130103.shtml
[Accessed 19 4 2019].
Ashcroft, L., Karoly, D. & Gergis, J., 2012. Temperature variations of southeastern Australia 1860–2011.
Australian meteorological and oceanographic Journal, 62(4), p. 227–245.
Cameron, P. et al., 2009. Black Saturday: the immediate impact of the February 2009 bushfires in
Victoria, Australia. Medical Journal of Australia, 191(1), p. 11–16.
Hennessy, K., 2009. CSIRO Submission 09/345 Climate Change and the 2009 Bushfre. Prepared for the
2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commision, Melbourne: Aspendable.
Hughes, L. & Steffen, W., 2013. Climate change in Victoria: trends, predictions and impacts. Proceedings
of the Royal Society of Victoria , 125(1\2), pp. 5-13.
Keywood, M., Emmerson, K. & Hibberd, M., 2016. (Climate: Indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects of
pressures on climate. In: Australia state of the environment 2016, Australian Government Department of
the Environment and Energy, Canberra,. [Online]
Available at: https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/climate/topic/2016/indirect-secondary-and-
tertiary-effects-pressures-climate, DOI 10.4226/94/58b65c70bc372
[Accessed 19 4 2019].
Loughnan, M., Nicholls, N. & Tappeer, N., 2010. Mortality–temperature thresholds for ten major
population centres in rural Victoria, Australia. Health and Place, 16(6), p. 1287–1290.
Raktima, D., Sophie, C., Julie, M. & Nerilie, J., 2019. A review of past and projected canges in Australia's
rainfall. Wiley Online Library, 10(2), pp. 2-7.