Advanced Statistical Hydrology Assignment 2022

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ADVANCED STATISTICAL HYDROLOGY
NAME OF STUDENT
NAME OF PROFESSOR
NAM OF CLASS
NAME OF SCHOOL
STATE AND CITY
DATE

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INTRODUCTION
The whole of the assignment attracts a report of up to five thousand words and has
several sections and subsections that need to be focused on. The sections and the subsections will
be listed towards the end of the executive section but in the meantime, we have to focus on what
exactly flood and flood analysis is and how floods should be combated in different
environments. Floods is a hydrological usually problem and in most cases, it requires measures
to be taken for it to be controlled or managed. The case that we are looking at we have two
Australian stations to focus on and as it looks it seems that they are closely adjacent to one
another. The stations are both is NSW state and they are Station 204017 at Bielsdown Creek at
Dorrigo Number 2 & Number 3. Dataset has been provided in this case and it contains what is
called the maximum flow which is the hydrological water that flows out of the stations. The
flow-through is not that very smooth and there are frequent stagnations in the stations hence
frequent flooding and this requires what is called analysis using online software to help look at
the amount of water that needs to be discharged at a time. The amount of discharge in designated
amounts, once established, then countermeasures that can aid in the actual discharge of the
amounts of floodwater experienced can be taken into consideration. The actual measures that
need to be explored are constructing actual structures such as dams that act as reservoirs on
higher raised grounds that are far off the stations. This will help do an actual, hold up of water
upstream. Looking at other actual structure, then bridges as well can be considered. Proper
drainage systems can be dug to help channel water off the stations into areas that they are highly
needed.
The actual sections that will be considered in this case will be the literature review that will
father give a critical review of the concept and methods that are to be used in doing analysis.

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The literature review section should be the most elaborate in that it contains the backbone of
what the whole literature is all about. What this means is all that needs to be done will be listed
in this step and therefore will contain most marks in the whole report as it is. There will be an in-
depth of references provided to give an elaborative number of journals that give an illustrative
view of areas where we can get the same amount of information from.
The next section will focus on the real equations that will be used in analyzing a pen and
paper probability distribution. All the methods discussed will be done here and therefore there
will listing of the actual equations that are to be used. The other important section is the section
where discussion and results are discussed. Then in wrapping things up, there will be a
conclusion that will give the actual recommendation on the proactive measure that should be
taken in curbing the problem of flood discharge in the stations.
LITERATURE REVIEW
There will be a closer look at what the whole concept on this assignment is all about.
Before arriving at the problem of flooding that is experienced in the two stations that are there in
Australia, there will be first looks at other areas across the globe. Looking at China, India and the
African plains as well, there are frequent reports of floods hitting these areas due to high
amounts of hydrological circulation. All the stated areas are associated with hot weather
conditions and this brings about a high amount of evaporation and therefore a follow-up of some
heavy downpour (Benson, Ransohoff and Huang, 2017). The heavy downpour in these three
cases again happens in areas that do have poor geographical alignments and build-up. Most of
these areas are usually flatlands and this translates into a poor drainage which then later makes

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sure that most of the hydrological water is stagnated at one point and yet this might cause varied
effects that actually tend to affect lives in ways that cannot be imagined by those that experience
better drainage system because of better geographical alignment and set up altogether (Bolch,
2017). One thing that one needs to know is the drainage systems and that aid in expelling out
excess water that is associated with heavy hydrological downpour through rain must not be
artificially created. There are natural drainage systems that are physically induced like in a
scenario where is better soil that allows for easy percolation of water into the underground layer.
Another naturally induced drainage system that exists can be associated with the slope that
certain geographical area has. Other areas experience some fair degree of slope or slant on their
alignment making it very easy for rainwater to trickle down to the lower areas where there are
streams that flow into larger water bodies and therefore helps in dispensing water out of an area
(Clark and Hanson, 2017). This way floods and heavy downpour can easily be taken care of
nature and without any hustles, as there will be no spending made directed towards developing
artificial drainage systems which might cost a lot as hydrologists and engineers who command
large amounts of money must be involved in such an ordeal.
In the areas where frequent flood effects are experienced, one will note that these areas
lack more than one thing and this ranges from, poorly drained type of soil that do not actually for
ease in percolation and drainage of water into the lower layers of soil. The next thing is the fact
that these areas are flatter hence bringing forth the stagnation ad lack of flow of the rainwater
down into other areas and therefore lower parts in altitude which eventually leads the water
being drained in a lager water body (Delignette-Muller and Dutang, 2015). Other factors that
might cause flood and flash floods is human negligence and what this means is the fact that most
humans just throw away waste products into trenches and the artificially made drainage systems

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and what this means is these drainage systems will be blocked and therefore paths that water pass
through will not be there during heavy downpour. Therefore, water will have to stagnate hence
creating serious floods or flash floods that might be detrimental to the lives of most individuals
(Eslamian, 2018).
Now we go back into the lives and the operation of those around the two stations under
the study that we have in this case. Form the dataset that was provided on the pdf file containing
the maximum flow of hydrological data, actually gives the fact that there are high amounts of
rainwater as well as water coming from up-streams that pass through the two stations. The flow
as per the dataset, the data was collected for a period of up to forty years starting from 1972 till
2011. The maximum flow will give the high values of cubic meters per second and the average
of the maximum flow was way above 200 m3/s (Faraway, 2016). This is the way too high
amount of water flow through hydrological processes since the drainage systems of these two
stations are not aligned and this poses a challenge in drainage. This is the more reason as to why
there is a need for analysis to be done on the provided dataset. The type of analysis will be to try
and predict the probability occurrence of 1% of the total flow. There will be the use of
probability distribution to predict the distribution of the probability of the 1% flow of flood
happening. After the probability methods have been reached, then there will need to use the
second method which is a non-parametric (non-probability distributed) method that will be used
in making estimates and predictions. This second method will have results that are compared to
the results that were gotten in the probability distribution estimates. After arriving at the actual
results, then the results will be used to answer the last part of the last part of the set of questions
where there will be a recommendations made as to what step to take to get to manage the actual

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flood flow and how to curb the menace that arises from floods and poorer outflow from the two
stations (Flowers, 2018).
In this part of the literature review, there will need to look at the effects of flood in the lives of
those that interact with floods from time to time. There will be lots of scrutiny of different effect
but the very first effect that will be picked up will be the effects that are induced by human
negligence. The very first case that we will pick in this case is a flash flood caused in streets in
towns because of poor dumping by humans. Those who drive might, for example, have garbage
that they might be intending to dispose of and because they feel so lazy to dispose of them
properly at the right places (Giner and Smyth, 2016). This irresponsible dumping that is done by
the irresponsible citizens of a place drives these wastes to go into trenches and therefore block
the trenches and what this result is a blocked drainage system. Water, therefore, can be blocked
from flowing during a heavy downpour and the blocked overflow can largely be directed to the
roads. Cases such as flash floods give an actual blockage of paths and what this means is that if
there was any construction along the path of usage, and if there was a real dug point then a driver
can deviate if they hit any invisible pothole or hole and this can lead to their deaths (Garvey,
Book and Covert, 2016).
The second effect happens by cause of diseases. The very first disease that is related to
flood and stagnated water is malaria, the second is bilharzia. Malaria happens in the sense that
the stagnated water offers a vibrant breeding ground for mosquitoes. Mosquitoes have found a
breeding ground will multiply in number and do this even faster as the multiplies ones multiply
even more. This then later can be of negative effects as there can be spread of malaria caused by
the several mosquitoes and this can eventually cause deaths that were not expected in the lives of
those living around these places. The Bilharzia case works the same way as in the case of malaria