Analysis of Air Traffic, Passenger Movement Data to Discover Trends

This project analyzes data obtained from various sources which comprises airport passenger movement per month, airport aircraft movement per month, airport aircraft movement for years and the airport passenger movement for years this will help discover trends and patterns in the various airports in Australia with the aim of helping various stakeholders in planning.

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS 1
ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER
PATTERNS, TRENDS AND FORECASTING
Name of Student
Institution

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TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS
EEMD: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
EMD: Empirical Mode Decomposition
IMF: Intrinsic Mode Functions
SVM: Support Vector Machines
RPT: Revenue Passenger Movement.

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Content
TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS...............................................................................................................2
INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................................5
Problem Statement....................................................................................................................................6
Project Objectives......................................................................................................................................6
LITERATURE REVIEW.........................................................................................................................8
FRAMEWORKS...........................................................................................................................................12
METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................................14
Data Sources........................................................................................................................................14
Gantt chart...........................................................................................................................................15
DISCUSSION OF ARTERFACT...........................................................................................................17
1985-2017 PASSENGER MOVEMENT............................................................................................17
Average Annual Growth of Passenger Movement............................................................................18
1985-2017 AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT...............................................................................................19
1985-2017 TOTAL AUSTRALIAN PASSENGER MOVEMENT BASED ON AIRPORT TYPE
...............................................................................................................................................................20
1985-2017 TOP TEN AIRPORTS IN AUSTRALIA.........................................................................20
SYDNEY..........................................................................................................................................20
MELBOURNE.................................................................................................................................21
BRISBANE.......................................................................................................................................22
PERTH.............................................................................................................................................23
ADELAIDE......................................................................................................................................24
GOLD COAST.................................................................................................................................25
CAIRNS............................................................................................................................................26
CANBERRA....................................................................................................................................27
DARWIN..........................................................................................................................................28
HOBART..........................................................................................................................................29
OTHERS..........................................................................................................................................30
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE RPT REVENUE PASSENGER MOVEMENTS..........................31
1985-2012 PASSENGER MOVEMENT........................................................................................32
1985-2012 AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT...........................................................................................33

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS 4
1985-2012 TOTAL AUSTRALIAN PASSENGER MOVEMENT BASED ON AIRPORT TYPE
...............................................................................................................................................................35
1985-2012 TOP TEN AIRPORTS IN AUSTRALIA.........................................................................36
Summary of Cities...............................................................................................................................36
FORECASTING..................................................................................................................................40
CONCLUSION, LIMITATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................41
Conclusion............................................................................................................................................41
Limitations...........................................................................................................................................41
Recommendations................................................................................................................................41
REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................42

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INTRODUCTION
Air transport makes a significant contribution to the economy of Australia since it’s a major
employment provider and provides market to local suppliers, besides the sector helps in the
transportation of both local and foreign passengers within and outside the country (Holland &
Cooksley, 2008).
Foreign tourists arriving by air in Australia spend their money in the country thus improving the
local economy, this in turn supports local jobs (Adler, Fu, Oum & Yu, 2014). In 2014 the air
transport supported $34.2 billion gross value added contribution to Australian GDP (Cheng,
2009).
There are various types of transport in Australia which are highly used and dependable and one
of them is air transport. There are at least 300 airports in Australia which have cemented
airstrips. In current years there have been much discussions over the capability of planned air
services to and from various regional communities in Australia (Sturman, Tyson & D’abreton,
2007). There have been issues over the past few years with strategy makers over sustainability
and accessibility of regional airports in Australia. There are various types of airports in Australia
namely, domestic regional and state airports (Australia, 2012).
The airports in the sector are categorized into three major sector, the international airports, the
regional airports and the domestic airports (Leigh, 2009). This project will analyze data obtained
from various sources which comprises airport passenger movement per month, airport aircraft
movement per month, airport aircraft movement for years and the airport passenger movement
for years this will help discover trends and patterns in the various airports in Australia with the
aim of helping various stakeholders in planning (Black, Black, 2009). There will be an analysis

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS 6
on the climate data to discover the cause of the various trends (Brons, Pels, Nijkamp, Rietveld,
2012).
Problem Statement
Without air transport forecast many sectors are left in the dark on what to expect in the future on
the trends of aircrafts and passengers (De’Neufville, 2015). Civil aviation authorities, airlines,
organizations and individuals need air passenger traffic and aircraft forecast in carrying out their
plans. Revenue management in the airlines is enhanced by accurate forecasts. Airline’s risk is
significantly reduced by carrying out forecasts to determine demand in the air transport (Stohl,
Eckhardt, Forster, James & Spichtinger, 2012). Lack of accurate forecast on air transport will
make the civil authorities unable to efficiently plan decisions in air transport infrastructure. In
order to carry out these forecast consideration is put on the airport passenger movement per
month, airport aircraft movement per month, airport aircraft movement for years and the airport
passenger movement for years (Hocking & Haddon, 2011).
In the past years many academic researchers have made multiple contributions to air transport
forecasting in Australia but they have not done its comprehensively considering all aspects
including passenger movements, aircraft movements and the climatic conditions in the various
airports (Xia, Nitschke, Zhang, Shah, Crabb & Hansen, 2015).
Project Objectives
 Analyze given data with the aim of finding the patterns, trends to help in forecasting the
number of passengers the airport may expect in the future to help different stakeholders
in decision making.

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 Analyze climate data to find out the reasons for the trends in various airlines.
 To help stakeholders to make better informed decisions by assessing where the air
transport industry is headed in both the long term and short term period.
Analyses Undertaken Using the Available Datasets include:

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LITERATURE REVIEW
According to Cheng (2009) in 2014 the Australian air transport employed more than 170,000
people. The passengers in the airports bought services and goods in the year leading to the
supporting of a further 100,000 jobs. By paying salary to its employees the sector supported a
further 60,000 jobs almost all being spent on consumer services and goods. Foreigners using the
Australian airports in the year are estimated to have supported a further 290,000 jobs (Cheng,
2009). Both the air transport industry and foreign tourists contributed an estimate of $64.3 billion
to the gross value added contribution to the Australian GDP this amounts to 4.5% of the
economy. Air transport in Australia facilitates tourism, exports, and foreign direct investment. In
2014 Australia exported US $300 billion worth of services and goods which were facilitated by
air transport (Cheng, 2009).
The air transport sector connects Australia to other countries both developed and undeveloped
this helps drive economic growth. According to available statistics there are sixteen direct flights
terminuses amongst the twenty fastest developing countries in the world (Bryce, 2013). There
are also twenty direct flight destinations to the twenty fastest growing cities in the world as
measured using GDP. North America and Europe are the biggest sources of inbound passengers
to Australia (Hooper, 2008).

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Figure 1 showing inbound passenger arrival in Australia from Various Continents.
The total inbound and outbound of aircraft in Australia is almost 1.4 million with three of its
airports ranked in the top hundred in the world airports ranking based on passenger numbers.
Some of the top airports in Australia are Kingsford Smith, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth
and Adelaide international. Airports in Australia are categorized into domestic, international and
regional (Laird, 2009).
In the trends of regional aviation, there has been an increase in the number of passenger’s
schedules at the regional airports. From the year 1984 to the year 2005 passenger movement rose
from 8.5 million to around 17.5 million which add ups to 3.5 %. On the other hand, the number
of airports have dropped from 278 in the year 1984 to 170 airports in 2005 (Laird, 2009). The
movement of passengers was seen to increase in every ASGC remoteness grouping. The number
of regional airports which are served in every ASGC remoteness class in regional Australia

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dropped. In the past years, Australia have experienced decline in the amount of regional airports
attended by airlines, followed by secluded Australia external regional Australia and inner
regional Australia (Forsyth, 2008, 2009, 2017). Nevertheless, in spite of the substantial drop
down over time, the amount of airports in very distant Australia remained high compared to
those in other AGSC remoteness classes are district areas.
There was a substantial dropdown in the number of airline services at the regional airports. The
rate of market awareness has advanced over time (Wheeler & Wheeler 2015). Back in the 80’s
regional airports were served by 52 airlines and managed about 8.5 million passengers’ revenue.
An important stir has also been observed in regional airports serving airlines over the years. Only
five airlines out of 34 serving regional airports are still offering services since 1984 (Ison,
Merkert & Mulley, 2014). Single operators have however been serving more than half of the
regional airports over the past 22 years. Despite the fact that there was double the number of
passengers in 2005 as compared to 1984, the number of flight was lower in the year 2005 than in
1984. Before 1990, aircrafts which had fewer than 18 seats operated an average of 40% of the
scheduled flights both outbound and inbound to regional airports. In the year 1994, aircrafts with
30 to 100 seats were introduced and the industry is strategizing at using larger aircraft to serve
regional airports (Mulley, Nelson, Tead, Wright & Daniels, 2012).
The amount of passengers has risen on regional air routes. A significant upward trend has been
observed from 6.5 million in the year 1984 to 16 million in the year 2005. There was a
downward trend in the number of regional air routes that dropped in the year 1984 to 2005 from
816 to 415 routes (Hancock, 2007). Many air routes were modernized over the year. On the
other hand, distribution of air routes in 2005 was significant with the flight frequency of regional
air routes providing an average about three return flights every week. The route density

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transported fewer than 1000 revenue passengers annually. About 80% of regional air routes
travelled a distance of 1000km or less (Zhang & Zhang 2013).
According to Stevens (2006) about 90 percent of the population was within access point to at
least one of the airports in Australia (Stevens, 2006). Seven percent of the population had an
access to medium, small and rural airports while only 3 percent of the population had no close
access to the airport. At most 92 percent of people living around large airports earned $ 400 to
$600. Passenger movement (Blow, 2012). Access points to the airports that were anticipated with
negative passenger movements increased with increase in population. Also population with a
smaller revenue is higher with negative estimated passenger movement than airports with
positively proposed passenger movements (Hooper, 2008). Air services. According to the flight
frequency, about 95 % of the population gave at least more than four return flights per day.
Medium airports with a coverage of 4.72 % of the population gave at least one or more daily
return flights. 85 % of small airports gave at least one daily return flight (Black, Black, 2009).
A research article written by Yukun Bao, Tao Xiong and Zhongyi Hu (2013) focusses on the use
of an Ensemble empirical mode decomposition EEMD in the calculation of air transport forecast.
They state that this method is an improvement of the empirical mode decomposition EMD being
used for calculation owing to the fact that it does not include mode mixing. In using the EEMD
for forecasting the existing air passenger traffic in the UK and the US were decomposed into a
small and finite numeral of a residual and an intrinsic mode functions IMF using slope based
formula. The components of IMF were then extracted through EEMD with each component
being modelled by an independent support vector machines SVM, finally another independent
SVM was used to aggregate the forecast of all components. In this calculation monthly air
transport data of 6 airlines in both the US and the UK was used (Bao, Hu & Xiong, 2013).

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In recent decades the aviation industry in Australia has faced a major debate on the competence
of programmed air flights both inbound and outbound from regional societies (Gunaratnam,
Tobin, Seale, Marich & Mc-Anulty, 2014). Various policy makers in the country’s different
organizations have faced matters concerning the accessibility, viability and sustainability of
some of the parts in the country (Lepani, Freed, Murphy & Mc-Givillary, 2009). There is need
for a detailed research with the aim of informing the industry and policy development (Collyer,
Barnes, Churchman, Clarkson & Steiner, 2014). This should be done by ensuring the research
provides a better comprehension of the state of the air transport industry, pointing out essential
issues and trends.
FRAMEWORKS
Various types of relevant literature have been reviewed on the artefact addressing the project
problem efficiently. In the project data has been gathered on the inbound and outbound of
aircraft in Australia. The data has been fed to the Microsoft excel software and analysis done on
it with the aim of addressing the problem statement which is to discover trends and patterns in air
transport in Australia in order to help in forecasting (Gaudry & Mayes, 2012).
The analysis is done based on the fact that the Australian air transport industry is important to the
economy and the globe since it has a significant impact. It is assumed that a significant number
of stakeholders will find the data analysis and discussion important in making their decisions
related to the Australian air transport industry (May, Hill, 2006).
It is assumed that the data used in this project which has been gathered from various online
sources is accurate and thus can be relied on by the various stakeholders who have been
discussed in the problem statement.

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The use of Ensemble empirical mode decomposition EEMD in the calculation of air transport
forecast has been employed. In using the EEMD for forecasting the existing air passenger traffic
in Australia is decomposed into a small and finite numeral of a residual and an intrinsic mode
functions IMF using slope based formula. The components of IMF are then extracted through
EEMD with each component being modelled by an independent support vector machines SVM,
finally another independent SVM is used to aggregate the forecast of all components. In this
calculation monthly air transport data of 6 airlines in Australia is used (Bao et al., 2013).
All these assumptions and formulae are applied to come up with a dependable analysis on the air
transport tends in the Australian air transport industry. The results from the calculations and
analysis play a significant role when various stakeholders make decisions (Harris, Pattiaratchi,
Cole & Keene).

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METHODOLOGY
The data used in this project is in excel comprising the aircraft movement data of Australian
cities and passenger movement data. Graphs have been designed in excel on the above data to
show the trends. The graphs were created using the following procedure:
 The data from online sources on the various airlines in Australia is entered in Excel.
 In the creation of the graphs there is a choice on what graph and chart to create.
 The data is highlighted and the desired graph is inserted as shown in the excel files.
 The data is aligned properly on the desired axes.
 The layout and colors are adjusted to achieve the desired outlook.
 The size of the graph’s axis and legend labels is adjusted.
 The graphs are titled according to the data (Kelly, Blyde & Denney, 2008).
Data Sources
The key data source for this project was the Air Transport Statistics database sustained by the
Aviation Statistics Section of BITRE (Laws, 2012). The source comprises an assembly of
statistical returns gathered for domestic, international and regional airports since 1985. The
website www.bom.gov.au has been used to obtain climate data to help in explaining the various
transport trends in both the international domestic and regional airports.

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Table 1 : Gantt Chart
DISCUSSION OF ARTERFACT
1985-2017 PASSENGER MOVEMENT
The graph 1 shows the annual passenger movement both inbound and outbound in Australia in a
span of thirty-two years from 1985 to 2012 in the international and domestic airlines. There is a
steady growth in the passenger movement in both airlines with the Domestic airlines leading.
The reason why the domestic airline has a large number of passenger movement as compared to
the international airline is because the international airlines only handle international flights in
and out of Australia while the domestic airlines handle flights between airlines in Australia thus
handle more passengers since there are more people travelling within the country as compared to
outside the country (Nelson, 2014). In 1988 to 1989 there was a decline in passenger movement
owing to the recession in Australia which was as a result of Japan and West Germany increasing
interest rates leading to the increase of interest rates by the US (Prideaux, 2008). This resulted in

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stock market crash globally and Australia was affected. In 2000 to 2002 there was a slight
decline in the passenger movement in both airlines due to the outbreak of the SARS disease in
some countries and the September 11 attack in the US (Williams, 2016). From 2002 onwards the
graph shows a steady increase in the passenger movement owing to the growth of the Australian
economy and most world economies in this period (Rimmer, 2012), 2017 recorded the highest
level of passenger movement while 1988-1989 recorded the lowest passenger movement. From
the graph it can be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers over the
period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International airlines. This trend is consistent over the years
with the domestic airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002 onwards compared to the
other airlines (Schuster, 2009). The international airline maintains a steady increase over the
years with a slight decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002. The gap between the domestic and the
international airlines is very large thus majority of passengers use the domestic airlines. This is
due to the fact that the number of passengers who travel within Australia is higher than those
who travel out or into the country (Yigitcanlar, Fabian & Coiacetto, 2008).
Average Annual Growth of Passenger Movement
The table 2 above shows the average total Annual growth of passenger movement from 20012-
2017 is 2.4%, from 2007-2017 its 3.2% and from 1997-2017 its 4.2%
This shows that there was more growth 1997 to 2017 at 4.2% as compared to the past five years
2012-2017. The positive growth over the years shows that the Australian Air transport sector is

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growing and contributing positively to the country’s GDP. This positive growth can be used to
forecast a positive growth in the future (Starkie, 2016).
1985-2017 AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT
The graph 2 shows the annual aircraft movement both inbound and outbound in Australia in a
span of thirty-two years from 1985 to 2017. There is a steady growth in the aircraft movement.
In 1988 to 1989 there was a decline in aircraft movement in 1999 to 2001 there were a slight
decline in the aircraft movement. From 2001 to 2002 there is a steady number of passenger
movement in Australia. There is a slight passenger movement decline from 2008-2009. 2017
recorded the highest level of aircraft movement.

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1985-2017 TOTAL AUSTRALIAN PASSENGER MOVEMENT BASED ON AIRPORT
TYPE
The airports in Australia are categorized into Regional, Domestic and International airports. The
graph shows the total number of passengers in millions who used the various types of airports.
1985-2017 TOP TEN AIRPORTS IN AUSTRALIA
Ten cities were considered in the analysis of the Australian airports among which are Sydney,
Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Cairns, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Others.
SYDNEY
Sydney is one of the major cities in Australia having both international and domestic airlines.
From the graph 3 it can be depicted that Domestic airports in Sydney handled most of the
passengers over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International airlines. This trend is

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consistent over the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002
onwards compared to the other airlines. The international airlines maintain a steady increase over
the years with a slight decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002 and 1989 to 1990, there is also a
similar decrease in the domestic airlines (Stevens, 2006).
Percentage Growth
The table 3 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in the domestic and international airlines.
MELBOURNE
Melbourne is a major city in Australia and plays an important role in its economy.

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From the graph 4 it can be shown that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers over the
period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International airlines. This trend is consistent over the years
with the domestic airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002 onwards compared to the
other airlines. The international airlines maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight
decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002 (Walker & Stevens, 2008).
Percentage Growth
The table 4 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in all airline types
BRISBANE
From the graph 5 above it shows the airline types in Brisbane city it can be noted that Domestic
airlines handled most of the passengers over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by

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International airlines. This tendency is steady over the years with the domestic airline showing a
large passenger increase from 2002 onwards compared to the other airline. There is a slight
decline in the periods of 1987 to 1989 and 2000 to 2002 in the domestic and the international
airlines.
Percentage Growth
The table 5 above shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to
2017 in the domestic and international airlines.
PERTH
Perth is a major airline transport hub in Australia.

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From the graph 6 above it can be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers
over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International airlines. This trend is consistent over
the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002 onwards.
Percentage Growth
The table 6 above shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2011 to
2012 in all airline types.
ADELAIDE
Adelaide is one of the major cities in Australia in terms of growth and GDP.
From the graph 7 it can be depicted that Domestic airports in Adelaide handled most of the
passengers over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by the International airlines. Both airlines

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maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002 and
1987 to 1989.
Percentage Growth
The table 7 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in the regional and international airlines.
GOLD COAST
From the graph 8 of Gold Coast city, it can be depicted that Domestic airlines handled most of
the passengers over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International airlines. This trend is
consistent over the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002

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onwards compared to the other airlines. This large gap between the domestic and international
airline shows that majority of the passengers preferred the domestic airlines to international
airlines.
Percentage Growth
The table 8 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in all airline types
CAIRNS
From the graph 9 it can be interpreted that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers
over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International airlines. From 2002 there was a sharp

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rise in the domestic airlines and a sharp decline in the international airlines thus increasing the
gap between the two.
Percentage Growth
The table 9 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in all airline types
CANBERRA
Canberra is one of the major cities in Australia.
From the graph 10 it can be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers over
the period of 1985 to 2017 in Canberra followed by the International airlines. The international
airlines recorded a zero passenger movement except from 2015 onwards. The domestic airlines

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maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002,
1988 to 1989 and 2009 to 2012 (Whelan, Nguyen, Hajkowicz, Davis, Smith, Pyke and Markes,
2012).
Percentage Growth
The table 10 shows that there is a decline in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017 in all
airline types with international airlines recording a percentage of zero in most of the years.
DARWIN
In Darwin city the situation is almost the same as the other cities, from the graph 11 it can be
depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers over the period of 1985 to 2017
followed by International airlines. This trend is consistent over the years with the domestic

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airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002 onwards compared to the other airlines.
The domestic airlines maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight decrease in the
period of 2001 to 2002, 2008-2009, and 1988 to 1989. There is a significant decline in the
international airlines in the period of 2000 to 2006.
Percentage Growth
The table 11 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in all airline types
HOBART
Hobart is one of the major airlines in Australia
From the Hobart passenger movement graph 12 above it can be depicted that Domestic airports
handled most of the passengers over the period of 1985 to 2017 followed by International

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airlines. The international airlines recorded a near zero passenger movement. This trend is
consistent over the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger increase from 2002
onwards compared to the other airlines. There is a decline in the domestic airlines in the period
1989 and 2002.
Percentage Growth
The table 12 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in the domestic airlines with the international airlines recording a zero growth.
OTHERS
The graph 13 above is a representation of all the other cities in Australia. From the graph it can
be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the passengers over the period of 1985 to

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2017. The international airlines handled very few passengers thus there is a large gap between
the two. There are sharp declines in the domestic airlines in the period of 1989, 2002 and 2009.
Percentage Growth
The table 13 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2016 to 2017
in all airline types.
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE RPT REVENUE PASSENGER MOVEMENTS
The graph 14 above shows the revenue per passenger movement on the top air transport cities in
Australia. Sydney is leading followed by Melbourne, Brisbane and then Perth. In all the cities the
months of November to January showed the highest RPT April, May and June showed the lowest

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RPT. This is due to the fact that between November and December people are on holiday and in
December there are the Christmas festivities and later on in January there is the New Year
festivals. Contrary to this in April, May and June most people are at work.
1985-2012 PASSENGER MOVEMENT
The graph 15 shows the annual passenger movement both inbound and outbound in Australia in
a span of twenty-seven years from 1985 to 2012.
There is a steady growth in the passenger movement.
In 1988 to 1989 there was a decline in passenger movement.
In 2000 to 2002 there were a slight decline in the passenger movement.
From 2002 onwards the graph shows a steady increase in the passenger movement.
2012 recorded the highest level of passenger movement at about 140, 000,000 while 1988-1989
recorded the lowest passenger movement at 30,000,000 aircrafts.

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Average Annual Growth of Passenger Movement
The table 14 above shows the average Annual growth of passenger movement from 2007-2012 is
4%, from 2002-2012 its 6.4% and from 1992-2012 its 5.4%
This shows that there was more growth between 2002 to 2012 at 6.4% as compared to the past
five years between 2007 and 2012.
The positive growth over the years shows that the Australian Air transport sector is growing and
contributing positively to the country’s GDP.
This positive growth can be used to forecast a positive growth in the future.
1985-2012 AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT

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The graph 16 shows the annual aircraft movement both inbound and outbound in Australia in a
span of twenty-seven years from 1985 to 2012.
There is a steady growth in the aircraft movement.
In 1988 to 1989 there was a decline in aircraft movement.
In 1999 to 2001 there were a slight decline in the aircraft movement.
From 2001 to 2002 there is a steady number of passenger movement in Australia.
From 2002 onwards the graph shows a steady increase in the passenger movement.
There is a slight passenger movement decline from 2008-2009.
2012 recorded the highest level of passenger movement at about 140, 000,000 while 1988-1989
recorded the lowest passenger movement at 30,000,000 aircrafts.
Average Annual Growth of Passenger Movement
The table 15 above shows the average Annual growth of passenger movement from 2007-2012 is
3.1%, from 2002-2012 its 3.0% and from 1992-2012 its 1.3%
This shows that there was more growth between 2007 to 2012 at 3.1% as compared to the past
ten years between 2002-2012 but the difference is slight at 0.1%

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35
The positive growth over the years shows that the Australian Air transport sector is growing and
contributing positively to the country’s GDP.
This positive growth can be used to forecast a positive growth in the future.
1985-2012 TOTAL AUSTRALIAN PASSENGER MOVEMENT BASED ON AIRPORT
TYPE
The airports in Australia are categorized into Regional, Domestic and International airports. The
graph shows the total number of passengers in millions who used the various types of airports.
From the graph 17 above it can be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the
passengers over the period of 1985 to 2012 followed by International airlines which is lagged by
the Regional airlines.
This trend is consistent over the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger
increase from 2002 onwards compared to the other airlines.

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36
The regional and the international airlines maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight
decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002.
Percentage Growth
The table 16 above shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2011
to 2012 in all airline types
1985-2012 TOP TEN AIRPORTS IN AUSTRALIA
Ten airports were considered in the analysis of the Australian airports among which are Sydney,
Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Cairns, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Others
Summary of Cities
SYDNEY
Sydney is one of the major airlines in Australia

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37
From the graph 18 above it can be depicted that Domestic airports in Sydney handled most of the
passengers over the period of 1985 to 2012 followed by International airlines which is lagged by
the Regional airlines.
This trend is consistent over the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger
increase from 2002 onwards compared to the other airlines.
The regional and the international airlines maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight
decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002.
Percentage Growth
The table 17 shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2011 to 2012
in the domestic and international airlines.

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS
38
The Regional airlines show a decline in the period of 2011 to 2012.
MELBOURNE
Melbourne is one of the major airlines in Australia
From the graph 19 above it can be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the
passengers over the period of 1985 to 2012 followed by International airlines which is lagged by
the Regional airlines.
This trend is consistent over the years with the domestic airline showing a large passenger
increase from 2002 onwards compared to the other airlines.
The regional and the international airlines maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight
decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002.
Percentage Growth

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS
39
The table 18 above shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2011
to 2012 in all airline types
OTHERS
From the graph 20 above it can be depicted that Domestic airports handled most of the
passengers over the period of 1985 to 2012 followed by regional airlines which is lagged by the
international airlines.
This trend is consistent over the years with the domestic airline and the regional airlines showing
a large passenger increase from 2002 onwards compared to the international airlines.

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS
40
The regional and the international airlines maintain a steady increase over the years with a slight
decrease in the period of 2001 to 2002.
Percentage Growth
The table 19 above shows that there is a positive growth in the passenger movement from 2011
to 2012 in all airline types except the international airlines that show a negative growth in the
period.
FORECASTING
Figure 2 showing Forecasting of outbound aircrafts in Australia (International Air Transport
Association, 2015)

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS
41
The results from the graph on the outbound of passengers from Australia shows that there will be
a decline in the outbound of aircraft followed by an increase after a few years (Jones, 2006).
There is a high fluctuation in the outbound of aircraft in Australia (International Air Transport
Association, 2015). The positive trend in all the cities of Australia shows that there will be an
even further increase in the number of aircraft and passengers handled in all the Australian
airlines (Gardner & Sarker, 2013).
CONCLUSION, LIMITATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusion
The trends in the analysis made above show that in all the Australian airlines both the domestic
and international airlines there has been a consistent growth in the number of aircrafts they
handle and in the passenger movement in all the major cities in Australia. However, there are
declines in all the airlines in the years 1989 and 2002-2003. The decline in 1989 was due to the
recession in Australia which was instigated by Japan and West Germany and the US due to their
action of increasing interest rates this led to the stock market crash that impacted Australia
negatively. The 2002-2003 decline was due to the outbreak of the SARS disease and the USA
September 11 attack. Despite this challenges the air transport industry in Australia has had a
consistent expansion of its service worldwide. The results show that the industry has a potential
of even expanding further in the coming years.
Limitations
 Obtaining the data of some of the cities was problematic since it’s scattered online on
various secondary sources.

ANALYSIS OF AIR TRAFFIC, PASSENGER MOVEMENT DATA TO DISCOVER TRENDS
42
 The forecast may not be accurate due to unforeseen dangers which may arise and affect
the Australian air transport sector.
Recommendations
The government and the air transport industry must be ready to encounter any challenge that
affects the Australian air transport industry such as the decline due to the stock market crash.
This will ensure consistency in the growth of the industry. Air transport companies can reduce
their transport costs during the peak moths of October and November and channel the resources
to advertisements during the off peak moths of April, June and May.

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43
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