Air Transport Forecasting and Market Research

AIR TRANSPORT
FORECASTING AND
MARKET RESEARCH

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................................2
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................3
Comparison of forecast, highlighting and differences between forecasts...................................3
Overview of assumptions of company........................................................................................8
Critically analyse the projected growth of the aviation industry and the areas which required
improvement...............................................................................................................................8
CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................10
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................11

INTRODUCTION
Forecasting is the process of making predictions about the future which is based on the
past and present data of the company. The present report is based on the two forecast report of
the Boeing company named as Commercial Market outlook 2020 to 2039 and Commercial
Market outlook 2021 to 2040. This covers the forecast of the company various activities for the
upcoming next 20 years. Now, this report will cover the comparison between the two forecast on
the basis of various factors such as drivers of air travel passenger demand, air cargo demand,
economic development etc. Further, the report will discuss the assumption used by the Boeing in
their most recent forecast such as forecast of 2021 to 2040. Lastly, the report will critically
analyse the projected growth in the aviation industry along with the area which need
improvement.
Comparison of forecast, highlighting and differences between forecasts
This section covers the comparison between the two forecasts of Boeing company using
the various factors of comparison. These factors are as follows:
Driver of Air Travel Passenger Demand:
This is one of the factors which describes the drivers on which demand of the air travel
passenger is estimated by Boeing company. This driver includes economic growth, airline traffic
growth and airline fleet growth. The forecasted data of these driver are as follows:
Particulars 2020 – 2039 2021 – 2040
GDP growth rate 2.50% 2.70%
Airline traffic growth 4.00% 4.00%
Airline fleet growth 3.20% 3.10%
‘
Graphical presentation of data:

Interpretation:
On the basis of above data and its graphical presentation, it is analysed and interpretated
that the estimated GDP growth rate and airline fleet rate in both forecast is different. It is because
in the year 2020 – 2039 the GDP growth is 2.50% while in 2021 – 2040 forecast is 2.70%. This
means that in the recent commercial market outlook, the company has increased their estimation
regarding their contribution towards the GDP of the country. On the same side, the airline fleet
growth in the 2020 – 2039 forecast is 3.20% and in the 2021 – 2040 forecast report is 3.10%.
This means that in the recent forecast report, Boeing has estimated low growth in airline fleet.
This might be because of the Covid-19 crises. On the basis of data, it is also interpretated that the
airline traffic growth rate in the forecast report 2020 – 2039 and 2021 – 2040 is similar i.e., 4%.
The reason behind keeping this driver similar in both forecasts might be that company beliefs
that this factor does not get affected by the changes taken place in the external business
environment (Siami-Namini, Tavakoli and Namin, 2018).
Passenger Market Development:
This is a factor which are plays crucial role in the business operation of Boeing which
involve service market size and flow of passenger traffic between region.