Influence of Analytical Thinking and Probability Estimates on Decision Making

This article discusses the influence of analytical thinking and probability estimates on decision making using the case of UWS Technical Solutions. It covers the seven stages of decision making, potential uncertainty, and the importance of considering both company benefits and service quality.

Running head: ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
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1ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
Influence of the change in initial probability estimates by the UWS technical staffs
In the case of UWS Technical solutions, the specifications outlined by their client,
required packaged software, which would not be cost effective for the concerned company. The
decision of the UWS Technical solutions being chosen for the outsourcing of the web and mobile
applications of the ARS Company decided to adopt any one of the four possible software
applications for the application development. The seven stages of decision making suggests that
the process of decision making can be divided in to seven steps which involves identifying the
decision to be taken, gathering proper information to make the decision a success, researching
the alternatives with proper evidences and the final step includes choosing from the alternatives
and reviewing the decision (Velasquez and Hester 2013). As per the seven stages of decision-
making, seven steps includes identifying the decision, gathering relevant information, identifying
alternatives, examining the alternatives, choosing from the alternatives, implementation of the
decision and the last step involves reviewing of the final decision. The engineers of the UWS
solution have clearly applied the seven stages of decision-making by identifying that a decision
should be made on which software would ensure maximum probability of success both for their
client as well as for the company itself. Relevant information regarding the cost and the effective
output of software are gathered which in turn shaped their decision making process also the
alternatives of each of the software are researched. Weighing each of the alternatives the UWS
chose to draw a final decision based on the best alternative. The sixth stage of decision-making
helped the UWS employees to reduce the risk of the uncertainty of their deliverables. The last
step of the decision-making process that involves reviewing the decision before implementation
will allow the engineers to predict the consequences of their decision before hand (Levy 2015).

2ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
Influence of the probability estimates and the uncertainty of the decision
The decision-making process of the UWS Technological Solution involves potential
uncertainty. The implementation of the Software packages B, C, D may turn out to be successful
or unsuccessful depending on the discrepancies of the applied technology. Apart from this, their
lies potential risk on the chances of running the software on both web application as well as the
mobile-based application. As the probability estimates suggests, the cost of developing the
software A, B, C and D varies and their chances of successful compilation varies from platform
to platform. Although UWS Technological Solutions have mapped their decision with the aid of
seven stages of decision-making but still there lies a potential risk and uncertainty of the
decision. The probability estimates have also helped in shaping the decision making process for
the company (Kahneman and Tversky 2013). Considering the company benefits and the required
service of their respective clients the UWS Technology Solutions is expected to give a much
more importance to not only their own benefits but also their service quality. Compromising the
cost can turn out to be both profitable and risky at the same time (Ford and Richardson 2013).
The probability estimates have greatly influenced the decision making process of the UWS team.

3ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
References
Ford, R.C. and Richardson, W.D., 2013. Ethical decision making: A review of the empirical
literature. In Citation classics from the Journal of Business Ethics (pp. 19-44). Springer,
Dordrecht.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 2013. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.
In Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making: Part I (pp. 99-127).
Levy, H., 2015. Stochastic dominance: Investment decision making under uncertainty. Springer.
Velasquez, M. and Hester, P.T., 2013. An analysis of multi-criteria decision making
methods. International Journal of Operations Research, 10(2), pp.56-66.