Influence of Analytical Thinking and Probability Estimates on Decision Making

Running head: ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
Name of Student
Name of University
Author note

1ANALYTICAL THINKING AND DECISION MAKING
Influence of the change in initial probability estimates by the UWS technical staffs
In the case of UWS Technical solutions, the specifications outlined by their client,
required packaged software, which would not be cost effective for the concerned company. The
decision of the UWS Technical solutions being chosen for the outsourcing of the web and mobile
applications of the ARS Company decided to adopt any one of the four possible software
applications for the application development. The seven stages of decision making suggests that
the process of decision making can be divided in to seven steps which involves identifying the
decision to be taken, gathering proper information to make the decision a success, researching
the alternatives with proper evidences and the final step includes choosing from the alternatives
and reviewing the decision (Velasquez and Hester 2013). As per the seven stages of decision-
making, seven steps includes identifying the decision, gathering relevant information, identifying
alternatives, examining the alternatives, choosing from the alternatives, implementation of the
decision and the last step involves reviewing of the final decision. The engineers of the UWS
solution have clearly applied the seven stages of decision-making by identifying that a decision
should be made on which software would ensure maximum probability of success both for their
client as well as for the company itself. Relevant information regarding the cost and the effective
output of software are gathered which in turn shaped their decision making process also the
alternatives of each of the software are researched. Weighing each of the alternatives the UWS
chose to draw a final decision based on the best alternative. The sixth stage of decision-making
helped the UWS employees to reduce the risk of the uncertainty of their deliverables. The last
step of the decision-making process that involves reviewing the decision before implementation
will allow the engineers to predict the consequences of their decision before hand (Levy 2015).