APPLIED RISK ANALYSIS2IntroductionQualitative risk analysis (QRA) provide a balanced, informative and broad picture of therisk in order to properly assess the support decisions. The proper analysis can be done only whenthe uncertainties are treated properly. In QRA risk is typically described through the usage of theexpected values and the probabilities. The different approaches applied in order to assess theuncertainties are totally based on the thinking that the uncertainties can be calculated through theexpected values and the calculated probabilities. The leads to the increase in difficulties when theresults of the calculations are conveyed. An alternative approach can be included which willencompass the uncertainty instead of the probability as the vital component of the risk. The mostcommonly used personnel risk indices with respect to the offshore QRA are the fatal accidentrate (FAR), potential loss of life (PLL), individual risk (IR) (Flage and Aven 2009). This study isbased on the description of a Norwegian offshore quantitative risk analysis (QRA) along with thedetailed information of the engineering phases with respect to the personnel risk from the ignitedgas release in the processing area and the headlines are to be in accordance with the ISO 31000standard.Risk analysis The assignment talks about the personnel risks arising from the ignited gas release in theprocess area. An example can be cited which will give a better picture of the ignited gas releasefrom the processing area. The risk of the explosion from the compressor area at the gas and oilinstallation. The probability of determining ignition (event A) can be related to the gas leak(initiating event 1). It is assumed that the pattern of the gas dispersion from the point of the gasleakage is very crude and simple. Dispersion of the gas is an uncertainty factor in the backgroundof the knowledge and any information regarding the dispersion must be reported when theprobability of the occurrence is highlighted. The human factor can also be included in theassessment and the number of the personnel working in the processing area can also be taken into account. The reason being the assessment is based on the impact of the ignited gas release onthe humans that are working in the offshore oil rigs (Flage and Aven 2009). For the purpose ofthe calculation of individual risk, it is assumed that the employees that are working on the oil rigsare spending a certain amount of time in the processing area. This also summarizes that a certainnumber of persons are present at the time of the occurrence of an accident. The uncertaintyfactors are both considered to be a vulnerability and the risk. The effect of the vulnerability andthe risk depending on the two dimensions: uncertainty degree; the sensitivity of the vulnerabilityindices and the relevant risks that change in uncertain quantities. The elevated levels ofuncertainty paired with the high sensitivity can lead to a conclusion that the factors ofuncertainty do have a significant effect on the risk. It is also noted that, if the uncertainty degreesare high and the indices of vulnerability are considerably insensitive to further changes thenchances of the risk can be moderate or minor. The classification and the (significant, moderate,minor) will depend on a specific case and the will depend on the judgement passed by the analyst(Flage and Aven 2009). The case of personnel risk arising from the ignited gas release in the process area will bein accordance with the 2017 draft version of the ISO 31000 standard. Communication and consultation- the sole aim of the communication and theconsultation are to convey the risk to the relevant stakeholders based upon which the necessarydecisions are to be made. The external stakeholder is the management authorities, while the

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Risk Management and Gas Detection in Oil and Gas Industry

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