Research Methods and Forecasting Techniques

This assignment delves into different research methods used for international forecasting, including bottom-up forecasting, Delphi technique, model building, projection, scenario planning, surveys of intentions, and top-down forecasting. It provides specific examples of how each method can be applied in international contexts. Furthermore, the assignment explores software applications commonly used in market analysis and forecasting, such as Adaptive Insights, MM4XL Software, IBM Marketing Cloud, Percolate, GMDH Shell, and Marketo, outlining their key features and functionalities.

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Assessment Task 2
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Define the following research methods, give examples of appropriate applications to
international forecasting:
1. Bottom-up forecasting – it is a detailed budget which comprises of the plans for spending
by a department which is actually the operational expense plan less the expenses of
depreciation then plus the capital expenditures. For instance, the account manager may
put a volume forecast in by week against all the ski’s expected to be sold. The prices are
input by ski and have a basic P + L for that account.
2. Delphi technique is a systematic approach of making decisions which involve the
structured interaction of a group of experts on a certain issue. The method is used to
forecast and make decisions whereby the forecasters consecutively assemble the
judgment of the experts. 1For instance, it can be used to combine the opinions of the
experts on the probability and the anticipated expansion time.
3. Model building is a function which identifies and mounts models for decision-making in
order to solve a given problem by considering the input variables and their
interrelationships, constraints, and model assumptions. It is an iterative process for
mounting a model starting with some information concerning the form of the problem
and having some relevant data. For example, it can be used to forecast disease patterns
and health requirements and addressing clinical problems or to substitute the
conventional meetings, hence avoiding group pressures.
1 Gaur, Garima, and R. K. Bhatt. "Library Services in Inclusive Environment: Role of marketing
tools." International Journal of Information Dissemination and Technology 6, no. 2 (2016): 122.

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4. Projection refers to an appraisal of what is probably to happen in the future considering
the current situation, trends or whatever is happening at the moment the actual demand
can be calculated using the current actual demand and using the equation.
5. Scenario planning is a practice of developing varying courses of action for an
organization to implement on grounds of the potential events known as scenarios. It is a
structured way used by organizations to predict the future whereby the executives
develop a small number of stories concerning how the future might unfold and how this
might impact the issue confronting them and make flexible long-term plans2. Examples
include: what will be the deficit value of Canada next year? What is the expected impact
of the global warming? How much oil will be available in the year 2030?
6. Surveys of intentions is a forecasting tool which is used to make decisions based on the
interests of a customer in a certain product or service to predict their demand and
requirement in a future period. For instance, observing the sales volume and demand of a
certain product can help to predict the sales for the company.
7. Top-down forecasting – it is a demanding process of estimation whereby the product
demand predictions for a business are generated for the higher product group level first
and then projected downwards to the lower levels. For instance, the combined data on
sales of all the products can be used and then apply these statistical methods to predict the
sales of individual items.
2 Rusko, Rauno. "Conflicts of supply chains in multi-channel marketing: a case from northern
Finland." Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 28, no. 4 (2016): 477-491.

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Is an approach whereby the forecaster uses the sales data to come up with predictions for
every item in each sales area. The statistical methods then sum up the item forecasts in
order to develop the forecast at the higher group level.
8. Give examples of software applications that are commonly used in market analysis and
forecasting and outline their key features.
Adaptive Insights – it is a cloud-based software delivered over the web in a software-as-a-
service. (SaaS). Has data visualization which enables the users with faster insight. Has
customizable reports and drag-and-drop report builder. It also has an easy-to-use interface and
automatic data consolidation. Has flexible forecasting and budgeting tools. Has self-service
reporting and automated currency exchange calculations. Has revenue planning and sharing
documents features.
MM4XL Software – the tools are available in in one single Excel add-in software. It provides
scenario modeling and simulation and offers marketing examples.
IBM Marketing Cloud – It is designed to manage data and has design and automated customer
experiences. It also uses embedded analytics and has other feature such as the IBM Digital
Marketing, Journey Design, IBM Analytics, campaign automation, and IBM Lead Management.
Percolate – is a system used to keep the records of marketing that helps to see, organize and
enhance the marketing activities3.
GMDH Shell – it is a windows application and the fastest way to forecast time series. Has plug-
ins that draw their panels into the host window. It has a sidebar and tabs for plugging in the
panels. Has great core algorithms optimization. Has templates which can be customized to match
3 Rusko, Rauno. "Conflicts of supply chains in multi-channel marketing: a case from northern
Finland." Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 28, no. 4 (2016): 477-491.

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the user’s preferences. It has multiple languages and fast evaluations. It has multiple users and
customizable platform.
Marketo – has automating tools, sales management dashboards, analytics and lead management
tools. It also allows inbound marketing and has been registered on NASDAQ.

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Bibliography
Gaur, Garima, and R. K. Bhatt. "Library Services in Inclusive Environment: Role of marketing
tools." International Journal of Information Dissemination and Technology 6, no. 2 (2016): 122.
Rusko, Rauno. "Conflicts of supply chains in multi-channel marketing: a case from northern
Finland." Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 28, no. 4 (2016): 477-491.