Valuation Study of British American Tobacco using Financial Tools
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This report focuses on the valuation study of British American Tobacco using various financial tools such as EVA analysis, total shareholder return, net asset value, ratios, discounted cash flows etc. The report concludes that the stock price of the company is undervalued and thus the company is not a good choice for the purpose of investment.
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Corporate Finance 2 Executive summary A valuation study has been performed on the British American Tobacco in the report. It focuses on the economic valuation model, net asset valuation model, total share holder return, comparable ratio, discounted cash flows etc methods to identify the position of the business in terms of the investment. The EVA analysis express that the current EVA of the company is $ 4743796.77. the total shareholder return of last 5 years are 28.39%. the position of TSR is highest in the current market. Further, the DCF valuation method expresses that the intrinsic value of the company is lower than the market value which means the stock is overvalued. On the basis of the study, the stock price of the company is undervalued and thus the company is not a good choice for the purpose of investment.
Corporate Finance 3 Contents Introduction...........................................................................................................................................4 Company overview................................................................................................................................4 EVA analysis.........................................................................................................................................4 Total shareholder return.........................................................................................................................5 Net asset value.......................................................................................................................................7 Comparable ratios..................................................................................................................................7 Discounted cash flow............................................................................................................................9 Conclusion...........................................................................................................................................10 References...........................................................................................................................................11 Appendix.............................................................................................................................................13
Corporate Finance 4 Introduction: The report has been prepared to identify the various tools to identify the value of a business in the marketplace. A business and the investors are required to identify various tools and techniques on the basis of which the correct worth of the business could be recognized. In this report, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC has been taken into the concern and various financial tools such as EVA analysis, total shareholder return, net asset value, ratios, discounted cash flows etc have been calculated on the company to reach over a conclusion about the overall performance of the company in the market and the investment position of the company (Lumby and Jones, 2007). Company overview: BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC is a British multinational company which operates its activities under tobacco industry in the US market. Headquarter of the company is in London. The company services its products and revises at worldwide. It is one of the leading companies in around 50 countries in tobacco industry. The company has managed better strategies and financial planning to improve the overall performance of the business in the industry (Home, 2018). EVA analysis: Economic value added is a measurement tool to identify the residual value of an organization. It valuates the financial performance of the business on the basis of the operating profits and the cost of capita of the business. It briefs the exact economic value of the business (Madura, 2014). The EVA analysis has been done on BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC to identify the economic worth of the business. For analyzing the EVA figures of the business, the operating profit of the business has been collected form the annual report of the company. The US corporate tax which is 20% has been taken into the context further. The WACC of each year has been calculated through collecting the data from various authentic websites and the US official websites. On the basis of the overall EVA analysis, it has been found that the EVA position of the company as enough strong in the year of 2013. But along with the time, a decrement has been seen in the economic profit position of the company (lord, 2007).
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Corporate Finance 5 The current year performance of BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC explains that the economic profit level of the company is highest and thus the company is performing better in the market. The investment level of the company has also been improved. Figure1: Economic Value analysis (Morningstar, 2018) Total shareholder return: Further, the study has been done on the total shareholder return of the company (Lord, 2007). Total shareholder return (TSR) is a measurement tool which evaluates the performance of the stock of a business, it combines the share price, and dividend paid etc items of the company to identify the total return to shareholder which is mainly expressed in the percentage form (Lee and Lee, 2006). In case of BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC, it has been found that the total shareholder return of the company was 51.58%, 19.65%, -2.58%, 44.22% and 29.11% respectively in the year of 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 and 2013. It expresses that the worth of the shareholders in the business was highest in the year of 2017. The huge changes have occurred due to the great increment in the stock price of the company in the year of 2017 (Morningstar, 2018). Further, it has been found that the overall position of the company is improving constantly and because of it, the total shareholder return of the company is also showing positive result. It briefs a better investment position in the company.
Corporate Finance 7 Further, the comparison has been done among the stock price of the British American tobacco Plc and the competitors valuation and it has been found that the overall position of the company is very lowered in the industry in terms of P/E ratio, Price book ratio, price sales ratio etc. (Jiashu, 2009) the below image depicts that the huge changes are required to be done by the company in order to improve the overall performance of the business (Jiashu, 2009). The changes could help the company to improve the overall performance in the market. Net asset value: Net asset value is the valuation model which describes that total value of the business on the basis of an organization’s assets minus the liabilities value of the business. The net asset value of a company is recognized in order to identify the overall performance of the business and the total equity value of the business to run the operations of the business smoothly (Horngren, 2009). The net asset value method has been applied on BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC to recognize the worth of the business on the basis of its equity amount. In case of BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC, it has been found that the net asset value of the company has been improved in the year of 2017 at huge level. The overall value of the company was better in earlier months as well but in the recent year, a huge increment has been seen. The net shareholder value of the business has been improved from $ 348.97 to $ 2974.75 from 2013 to 2017. It express that the worth of the company has been improved at great level and thus the company is a good choice for the purpose of investment.
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Corporate Finance 8 Figure3: Net asset value method (Yahoo Finance, 2018) Comparable ratios: Ratio analysis is one of the financial analysis tools which are applied on the financial statement of the company to recognize the various financial level of the business. It makes it easier for the business and the stakeholders of the business to identify the changes into the business at different level. The comparable ratios of the BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC have been done to recognize the changes into the performance of the company. The different ratios of the company have been calculated which are as follows: Price earnings ratio: Price earnings ratio is an investment ratio which depicts the total price and earnings relation in a business (Higgins, 2012).The comparison has been done among the price earnings ratio of the British American tobacco Plc and the competitors and it has been found that the overall position of the company is much lowered in the industry in terms of P/E ratio. The below image depicts that the PE ratio of BTI is 2 and the industry average is 14.2 which depict huge differences. And thus the business is required to improve the profitability level and market position so that the PE level could be improved. Price book value ratio:
Corporate Finance 9 Further, thePrice book ratio has been calculated which is also an investment ratio and depicts the total market price of a stock against the book stock price of the company.The comparison has been done among the price book ratio of the British American tobacco Plc and the competitors and it has been found that the overall position of the company is very lowered in the industry in terms of price book ratio (Horngren, 2009). The below image depicts that the Price book ratio of BTI is 1.3 and the industry average is 7.2 which depict huge differences. And thus the business is required to improve the market position so that the PE level could be improved. EV/EBITDA: Further, theEV/EBITDA ratio has been calculated which is also an investment ratio and depicts the total enterprise value of a business against the earnings before the interest, taxes, dividend and the amortization of the company (Hillier, Grinblatt and Titman, 2011). The comparison has been done among the price book ratio of the British American tobacco Plc and the competitors and it has been found that the overall position of the company is very lowered in the industry in terms of managing the enterprise value against the EBITDA. The company is required to make the changes into the financial strategies and policies so that the profitability level of the company could be improved and the company get succeed to make a better position in the market. Discounted cash flow: Discounted cash flow method is one of the crucial business valuation models. It takes the concern on the historical cash flows position of the business to estimate the future cash flows of the business. On the basis of which an intrinsic value of the business is calculated and it is compared to the market book price of the company to identify that how much changes have taken place into the overall position of the company in a given period of time (Higgins, 2012). The discounted cash flow method has been applied on BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC. Firstly, the future cash flows of the business have been calculated on the basis of the last 5 years cash flows of the business. It has been found that the FCFF of the company is $ 34,27,444.60. the growth rate among the dividends of the company are 12.67% which is quite higher in the industry and thus the industry data has been taken to measure the overall growth of the business which s 3.33% (Appendix).
Corporate Finance 10 In addition, firstly the future cash flows of the next 10 years have been calculated and it has been found that the terminal cash flow of the business is $ 49,14,644.57. The present value method has been applied on the future cash flows and the terminal cash flows of the business to identify the current worth of the business (Appendix). The WACC i.e. 1.17% rate has been applied on the future cash flows and terminal cash flows of the business and it has been found that the total PV of next 10 year cash outflows of the business are $ 38,569,707.91 (Investing, 2018). The present value of terminal cash flows of the business is $ 52,622,162.78 which was earlier $ 4,914,644.57. On the basis of present value of terminal cash flows of the business, the valuation process has been applied on the financial figures of the company. Firstly, the total worth of the business has been calculated through adding the terminal cash flows and the PV of future cash flows of the business(Appendix). The total value of the firm is $ 91,191,870.68. Further, the total debt amount of the company has been deducted from the total value of the firm to recognize the value of the equity of the business. The total value of equity of the business has been estimated $ 26.501,870.98. The total stock price of the company has been dividend by the outstanding shares of the company i.e. 20,440 to identify the per share value of equity off the business which is 1296.57. It express that the intrinsic value of the company is $ 1296.57. However, the market price of the company is $ 4848 (Yahoo Finance, 2018). It express that the market position of the company is overvalued. Conclusion: On the basis of the various valuation model of the company, it has been found that the BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC has made various changes into the financial strategies and policies in last 5 years which impact could be seen in the valuation process of the business. However, on the basis of the overall financial valuation model, it has been found that the stock price of the company is undervalued. The market price of the company is $ 4848 in current market. On the other hand, the intrinsic value of the company from the entire valuation model is lower the market value and thus it is concluded that the stock price of the company is undervalued.
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Corporate Finance 11 The valuation method makes it easier for the investors and the financial analyst to identify the economical profit and worth of the business and make better decision about the investment level of the business.
Corporate Finance 12 References: Gapenski, L.C., 2008.Healthcare finance: an introduction to accounting and financial management. Health Administration Press. Government publications. 2018.Rates and allowances. [online].Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowances-corporation-tax/rates- and-allowances-corporation-tax(accessed 17/9/18). Higgins, R. C., 2012.Analysis for financial management. McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Hillier, D., Grinblatt, M. and Titman, S., 2011.Financial markets and corporate strategy. McGraw Hill. Home. 2018.Britsih American tobacco plc. [online]. Available at:http://www.bat.com/ (accessed 17/9/18). Horngren, C.T., 2009.Cost accounting: A managerial emphasis, 13/e. Pearson Education India. Investing. 2018.Bond rates. [online]. Available at:https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/uk-5- year-bond-yield-historical-data(accessed 17/9/18). Jiashu, G., 2009. Study on Fair Value Accounting——on the essential characteristics of financial accounting [J].Accounting Research,5, p.003. Lee.C.F and Lee, A, C,.2006.Encyclopedia of finance, Springer science, new York Lord, B.R., 2007. Strategic management accounting.Issues in Management Accounting,3 (2). P. 17. Lumby,S and Jones,C,.2007.Corporate finance theory & practice, 7th edition, Thomson, London Madura, J. 2014.Financial Markets and Institutions. Cengage Learning. Morningstar. 2018.Britsih American tobacco plc. [online]. Available at: http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-overview.html? t=BTI®ion=usa&culture=en-US(accessed 17/9/18).
Corporate Finance 13 Yahoo finance. 2018.Britsih American tobacco plc. [online]. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/bti?ltr=1(accessed 17/9/18).
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Corporate Finance 14 Appendix: Calculation of Economic Value Added Particulars20172016201520142013 Operating profit Amount in GBP '000 64700004653000459100046530005571000 Less: Tax @ 20%12940009306009182009306001114200 Net Operating Profit After Tax (A) 51760003722400367280037224004456800 WACC (B)1.17%2.07%2.17%3.09%2.86% Invested Capital (C )369830003331000175400015780002398000 D= BXC432203.2369002.4137979.9448743.3968555.36 Economic Value Added (A-D) 4743796.773653397.593634820.063673656.614388244.64 Calculation of Total Share holder return Particulars20172016201520142013 Market price of shares 4848.258794313.44973394.64653025.7622681.4548 Capital Gain or loss534.809082918.80322368.88452344.30713 Dividend Per Share2.191.561.521.451.41 TSR536.999082920.36322370.40452345.75713 TSR %11.08%21.34%10.91%11.43% 2017 Cost of Equity: CAPM model A. Risk free rate1.12% B. Market rate of return (S&P500 2016 return) 3.03% C. Beta- 0.097918 D. CAPM0.93% Cost of debt: Net finance cost ($'000)1124000 Less: Tax @30%224800 After tax cost of debt899200
Corporate Finance 15 Borrowings amount64690000 After tax cost of debt (%) [3517.50/135794] 1.39% Debt64690000 Equity60804000 DebtOrdinary Shares Total Cost of Finance1.39%0.93% Market Weights 0.52 0.48 WACC0.72%0.45%1.17% 2016 Cost of Equity: CAPM model A. Risk free rate1.12% B. Market rate of return (S&P500 2016 return) 5.10% C. Beta-0.1514 D. CAPM0.52% Cost of debt: Net finance cost ($'000)670000 Less: Tax @30%134000 After tax cost of debt536000 Borrowings amount19735000 After tax cost of debt (%) [3517.50/135794] 2.72% Debt19735000 Equity8182000 DebtOrdinary Shares Total Cost of Finance2.72%0.52% Market Weights0.710.29 WACC1.92%0.15%2.07%
Corporate Finance 16 2015 Cost of Equity: CAPM model A. Risk free rate1.12%https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/uk-5-year-bond- yield-historical-data B. Market rate of return (S&P500 2016 return) -1.22% C. Beta0.288096 D. CAPM0.45% Cost of debt: Net finance cost ($'000)582000 Less: Tax @30%116400 After tax cost of debt465600 Borrowings amount17615000 After tax cost of debt (%) [3517.50/135794] 2.64% Debt17615000 Equity4894000 DebtOrdinary SharesTotal Cost of Finance2.64%0.45% Market Weights0.780.22 WACC2.07%0.10%2.17% 2014 Cost of Equity: CAPM model A. Risk free rate1.12% B. Market rate of return (S&P500 2016 return) 2.28% C. Beta0.083007 D. CAPM1.22% Cost of debt: Net finance cost ($'000)588000 Less: Tax @30%117600
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Corporate Finance 17 After tax cost of debt470400 Borrowings amount11888000 After tax cost of debt (%) [3517.50/135794] 3.96% Debt11888000 Equity5510000 DebtOrdinary Shares Total Cost of Finance3.96%1.22% Market Weights0.680.32 WACC2.70%0.39%3.09% 2013 Cost of Equity: CAPM model A. Risk free rate1.12% B. Market rate of return (S&P500 2016 return) 3.02% C. Beta-0.3034 D. CAPM0.54% Cost of debt: Net finance cost ($'000)614000 Less: Tax @30%122800 After tax cost of debt491200 Borrowings amount11811000 After tax cost of debt (%) [3517.50/135794] 4.16% Debt11811000 Equity6634000 DebtOrdinary Shares Total Cost of Finance4.16%0.54% Market Weights0.640.36 WACC2.66%0.20%2.86%
Corporate Finance 23 amortisations5,1244,8479,2839,7629,192 Add/Less: Decrease in GE current receivables3,5485,428(1,913)8,754(1,245) Add/Less: Decrease in inventories(1,257)7,854(564)(1,254)(856) Add/Less: Increase in accounts payable1,257(800)1,5421,360(1,542) Add/Less: Increase in GE progress collections1,875(847)(8,564)875964 Total 5,186,5473,738,88 2 3,672,58 4 3,741,89 7 4,463,31 3 Less: Capital expenditure (978,000)(674,000 ) (601,000 ) (692,000 ) (721,000 ) Free cash flows to the firm 4,208,5473,064,88 2 3,071,58 4 3,049,89 7 3,742,31 3 Avergae 3,427,44 5 Dividend Per Share 2.191.561.521.451.41 0.403846150.026315790.048275860.02836879 YearGDP ($M)Growth rate 201316155255 2014166915173.32% 2015173931034.20% 2016180366483.70% 201718415417.62.10% Average GDP growth rate 3.33% Valuation of equity taking free cash flows of firm Past average
Corporate Finance 24 FCFF ($'000) 3,427,444.60 Discrete free cash flow growth12.67%Applied for next 10 years Permanent growth rate free cash flow 3.33%Applied after 10 years Estimated Free cash flows for firm YearFCFF ($'000)Remarks 20173,541,601.45 20183,659,560.48 20193,781,448.35 20203,907,395.89 20214,037,538.33 20224,172,015.38 20234,310,971.42 20244,454,555.63 20254,602,922.15 20264,756,230.27 Terminal cash flows 4,914,644.57 Present value of discrete cash flows for next 10 years YearFCFF ($'000)PVF @1.17% PV of Cash Flows 13,541,601.45 0.988 3,500,643.91 23,659,560.48 0.977 3,575,406.53 33,781,448.35 0.966 3,651,765.84 43,907,395.89 0.955 3,729,755.95 54,037,538.33 0.943 3,809,411.67 64,172,015.38 0.933 3,890,768.59 74,310,971.42 0.922 3,973,863.03
Corporate Finance 25 84,454,555.63 0.911 4,058,732.10 94,602,922.15 0.901 4,145,413.71 104,756,230.27 0.890 4,233,946.56 Total38,569,707.91 Present value of terminal cash flows Terminal cash flows 4,914,644.5752,622,162.78 Total value of Firm ($'000)91,191,870.68 Less: Value of Debt64,690,000.00 Total value of Equity26,501,870.68 No of Shares Outstanding20,440.00 Per share value of value of equity1,296.57