Newcastle Housing Market Analysis

This assignment requires a comprehensive analysis of the Newcastle housing market. It explores factors driving price trends, focusing on student accommodation demand due to the presence of educational institutions like the University of Newcastle. The analysis also considers broader economic indicators impacting the market, such as Australia's overall economic performance and global influences.

BUILDING PROJECT EVALUATION
16 Robert Street, Jesmond

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL............................................................................................................3
INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................4
OVERVIEW OF THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET..............................................................................6
Analysis of Real Estate Market.......................................................................................................6
Jesmond...........................................................................................................................................7
FINANCIAL CAPACITY....................................................................................................................8
SITE ANALYSIS..................................................................................................................................9
LOCATION CHARACTERISTICS.....................................................................................................9
SURROUNDING FACILITIES...........................................................................................................9
PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS...................................................................................................12
LEGAL CHARACTERISTICS..........................................................................................................12
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL.........................................................................................................12
DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT.................................................................................................12
Project : Mixed Commercial and Residential Development.........................................................12
TARGETED’ LIKELY CUSTOMERS..............................................................................................13
SCHEDULE FOR DEVELOPMENT................................................................................................13
CONSTRUCTION COST..................................................................................................................14
CAPITAL............................................................................................................................................14
ENVIRONMENT-FRIENDLY FEATURES INCORPORATED INTO PROJECT..........................15
Urban Design.................................................................................................................................15
Labor..............................................................................................................................................15
Noise..............................................................................................................................................15
Materials and waste.......................................................................................................................15
Energy............................................................................................................................................15
INCOME ESTIMATE........................................................................................................................16
INVESTMENT PROPOSAL.............................................................................................................16
CASH FLOWS – BEFORE TAX.......................................................................................................16
AFTER TAX CASH FLOWS............................................................................................................17
IRR and NPV- BEFORE TAX............................................................................................................17
IRR and NPV-AFTER TAX...............................................................................................................17
RISK ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY...................................................17
RISK MATRIX...................................................................................................................................18
COMPARABLE MARKETS.............................................................................................................19
REFERENCES...................................................................................................................................20
APPENDICES....................................................................................................................................22

LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
The Management
Real Estate Pty Ltd
Newcastle City
1234 Victor Road
January 2017
To the Client
Sydney,
2314 Wisshes Road
Sydney
Dear Sir/ Madam
Reference: Property Valuation Report for 16 Robert Street Road, Jesmond,
NSW
The above refers; this report is a valuation of the named property, using the API (Australian
Property Institute) standards. The facility is valued based on the returns it can provide when
purchased and developed as a real estate business, specifically, a student accommodation facility
with 105 rooms and a small commercial section covering 1450 square meters. The valuation is done
based on present and projected financial and economic conditions, as well as social dynamics.
Assumptions are made, such as that the real estate market will not collapse or the economy faces a
recession that can drastically lower real estate prices. The report is made on January 2018. The
report is done step by step, with external factors evaluated, internal dynamics also evaluated, and
risks that the project may face also analyzed. As such, the report is accurate and factual to the limits
of assumptions made
Regards
Real Estate Pty Ltd

INTRODUCTION
This report details the feasibility study and evaluation of a proposed real estate investment in NSW,
in Newcastle City at Jesmond. Specifically, the report looks at the feasibility of constructing a 3
level mixed residential and commercial building at 16 Robert Street in Jesmond that will be used to
provide accommodation to University students studying at Newcastle University. The project looks
at putting up 105 accommodation rooms, motivated by the large student population at Newcastle
University and the scarcity of adequate accommodation for these students. Further, the region
(Newcastle) is touted a the next big growth area in real estate; this study therefore seeks to justify
whether the proposed investment on 2500 square feet of land at 16 Jesmond street is feasible, by
computing its cash flows, and net present value for an intended development and use of the facility
for ten years, after which it will be sold off.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The ‘company’ is looking at making an investment into real estate; recently, here has been an upturn
in the real estate sector in Newcastle in NSW; with analysts projecting that it is the next growth
frontier for real estate. With a projected population growth of 33 % by the year 2016, the region will
see a huge demand for real estate. In looking at the region, it was decided that Jesmond, a dormitory
town for Newcastle City, and just 9.5 km from the Newcastle CBD, offered a good investment
opportunity. This is because land rates are still lower than purchasing the same amount of land in
within the Newcastle CBD. As such, a search returned a suitable piece f land, Number 16 Robert
Street, Jesmond, measuring 2500 square meters. The land has straight edges and is rectangular with
triangular shaped edges. Its shape makes it an ideal investment for real estate given that it will
maximize utilization of space. The piece of land is 80% vacant, with an old building and a few
structures touching the Robert Street road. The zoning for the areas means it can be used only as a
residential area with rating of residential zone Type A. The piece of land can easily take 11 three
bedroomed residential houses; however, the company wanted a different approach that would
enable it serve the needs of the community better and attain higher returns. The University of
Newcastle has a student population of 26615 in Newcastle City and at Jesmond, meaning this is a
long term investment with guaranteed results. It is proposed that a student accommodation be built
as well as a few commercial facilities where small restaurants, laundry businesses can be put up.
The proposed development is a mixed use facility with three levels and an underground parking.
Based on construction rates, the building will cost a total of $ 13.2 million to construct, including all
other costs. The proposed building will be developed using solar technology and double envelope
large windows for maximum natural lighting and to reduce air conditioning needs. Further, solar air

conditioners will be installed and solar panels used to minimize energy consumption. Some of the
anticipated risks include business, vacancy, environment, structural, project, management, and
legal risks. Computing the IRR and NPV using the cash flow method shows that the business is
viable; the IRR before tax is 12.2% with an NPV $ 8,931,854, while after tax, the IRR is 10.2%
with an NPV of $ 5,530,440 using a discounted cash flow rate of 6%. the findings show that it is a
viable business; the tax rate used is 30% with annual depreciation of 2.5%. selling off the facility
after 10 years means it remains a very viable investment. The project will take 36 weeks to
complete

OVERVIEW OF THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET
Australia has a highly developed economy and is considered among the largest mixed economies
globally, with a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of $ 1.69 trillion (in Australian Dollars) (Holden,
2018). Considered in terms of wealth per adult, Australia is the second wealthiest country in the
world, behind Switzerland, with a total wealth of $ 8.9 trillion as of 2017 (Pash, 2016). It is the 14th
largest economy (national) in terms of GDP and is the 25th largest exporter of goods among the
world national economies (Tasker, 2017). The country’s economy has consistently performed well,
ensuring a sustained GDP growth for 26 years, with its last recession reported 27 years ago; even
the global economic recession of 2007/2008 did not affect her economy (Kopf, 2017). The service
sector accounts for a major portion of the country’s GDP, at 61% of total GDP and this sector is also
the biggest employer, employing 79% of the total labor force as of 2017 (Garnett, 2015). Australia
has the 16th largest stock exchange (the ASX) in the context of domestic market capitalization; the
country also has the largest interest rate derivatives in the Asian region (Martin, 2016). The
country’s economy is a fully liberalized free market economy. Its GDP grew by an average of 3.4%
between 1999 and 2008, and by an average of 2.7% between 2009 and 2014 (‘Focus Economics’,
2017). In 2018, the country’s GDP id projected to grow by 2.7%, same for 2019 (Holden, 2018).
The GDP growth is shown in the chart below;
Source: Trading Economics
Analysis of Real Estate Market
Interest rates are dropping in Australia; coupled with steady economic growth and other indicators
such as th weakening of the AUD, the real estate sector has benefited significantly. Sydney and
Melbourne recorded the strongest property execution in 2015 - a pattern seen in 2016 and 2017, and

expected to continue in 2018 ('CB Richard Ellis', 2018). Those sway from claiming easier
investment rates need been specifically felt in the retail and private property sectors, same time
further downstream benefiting office rates. The real estate sector has greatly benefited from lower
overall interest rates, helping spur growth (‘Trading Economics’ 2017). According to Bleby (2015),
the property market is now among the biggest industries in Australia, larger than mining, the
financial services, home ownership and has doubled its contribution to the overall GDP in the past
ten years. In 2016, the sector contributed 11.5% of GDP, equivalent to $ 182.5 billion and plans are
underway to lobby for legislation that would promote its growth further
Jesmond
Jesmond is a a suburb located about 9.5 km West of the Newcastle central business district in New
South Wales, Hunter Region. The suburb is a dormitory suburb of Newcastle as well as a
commercial center and has residents that are both Australian and international; the majority of the
international residents being students attending the nearby University of Newcastle. It is a multi
cultured suburb because f the many international students studying at the University. It is
characterized by several aged buildings and has a population of 2442 people living in 1144
dwellings (Butler et al., 2016), . However, the vast number of residents are students studying at the
University of Newcastle, which had a total student population of 26615 students, located at the
Newcastle City and Callaghan campuses. The demand for real estate in Newcastle is very high,
especially residential rental houses in the area. The figure below shows the demand for rental
houses in Newcastle;

The rental houses yields have also been on an upward trend in the past two years, and is expected to
continue rising ('Newcastle City Council', 2018)
While Sydney has been the ‘king’ of real estate in Australia, Newcastle and its environs is the next
big growth frontier, with the population of the city expected to grow by 33% by the year 2036. The
city CBD has been revitalized, with the NSW government also making a $ 6.5 billion and improved
amenities. Further, a new university wing has been developed and is attracting increasing numbers
of international students. The median house prices in Sydney is $ 530000, which makes it an
interesting real estate investment location. Further, with such high rent rates and many students, as
well as a huge and rising demand for housing, Jesmond becomes an ideal place to invest in real
estate, being just a short hop away from Newcastle CBD, and about ten minutes drive (half an hour
walk, or 20 minutes cycling) from the Callaghan campus of the Newcastle university (Schipp, 2017)
.
FINANCIAL CAPACITY
The company wishing to invest in the property is a relatively new real estate firm that has an Equity
value of $ 7 million and $ 700 000 in cash for operations and investments. The company will make
a significant investment in putting up the facility; the investment will also include the cost of
acquiring the land and other legal requirements and stamps, drawing of building plans, and getting
approvals from the local authorities to commence construction.

SITE ANALYSIS
Jesmond is a transport junction and a dormitory town for Newcastle City; with the projected huge
growth in population, and increasing demand for housing and accommodation within the wider
Newcastle region, coupled with rising real estate prices, the location is ideal as an investment in real
estate. It is expected that the prices of real estate in the region will continue to appreciate fast, and is
a hot investment destination, that may surpass Sydney in the future. The chosen property is a vacant
land, commercial grade investment, with a few old structures that will have to be brought down.
Further, the facility is located at 16 Jesmond street in very close proximity to to Jesmond Public
School. The facility is 2500 square meters with a large frontage of 22.6 meters ('Century 21
Australia', 2018).
LOCATION CHARACTERISTICS
The piece of land is located in 16 Robert street with a single 3 bedroom old house touching the
tarmac and a large portion of the land being vacant. The land is flat with just a gentle slope towards
the back, covered in grass, some shrubs, and a few trees. The land is well serviced with a road on
the frontage and has services that include sewerage, water, and electricity ('Newcastle City Council',
2018). Based on its location, it only requires strategic development for maximum returns. The
approach price for the facility if $ 700000, which is feasible and realistic for the intended
investment, given that 80% of the property is void and ready for development.
SURROUNDING FACILITIES
The area is very close to the Jesmond Public school, it is also a walking distance to the Jesmond
Shopping Center and is also a very short distance to the Newcastle University. This makes it a
perfect site for development and indications show that it can take up to 12 town houses. The area is
surrounded by other residential structures in its immediate neighborhood, and other surrounding
facilities include public schools (Jesmond Public School, Jesmond Campus, Callaghna College,
Heaton Public School, Wallsend Public School, Lambton Public School, Plattsburg Public School,
John Hunter Public School, and Waratah West Public School). There are also severa private
schools nearby, including St. Johns Primary School, Aspect Hunter School, Our Lady of Victories
primary, Waratah West, St. Patrick's Primary School, St. Phillip’s Christian College, Corpus Christi
primary School, and Margaret Jurd College. The location is surrounded by various amenities that
include Parks such as McClure Reserve, Hugo Reserve, and Jesmond Park. The available services
include the Jesmond Post Office, New Lambton Post Office, Lambton Post Office, and the Wallsend
Post Office. Transport is readily available with both pubic road and train transport, a good roads
network suitable for private transport, cycling, or even walking to the nearby facilities ('Century 21
Australia', 2018). The images below show the site

PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS
The facility has rectangular shapes and triangular shapes on some edges, making it an ideal
developers’ site due to mostly straight edges and predominantly geometric shapes. The land is 2500
square meters, with a lettable area of of 92% 2300 square meters (see Appendix I for plans for the
building). The proposed buildings on three stories will create a total floor area of 6900 square
meters, which will provide a very large floor space for utilization ('Century 21 Australia', 2018).
LEGAL CHARACTERISTICS
The area is zoned by the Newcastle Municipal Council as a residential area Zoning A, with the
primary land use being a residential area.
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL
Given the potential for the area, a large student population, and demand for residential property
(Kelly, 2015), the proposed development is for hostel type developments to be used for external
accommodation by students at the Newcastle University. The proposed development is a mixed use
property, with a few commercial facilities that can be rented out for a restaurant, ice cream parlor,
stationery shops, amongst other small businesses. This is because the area is highly multi cultural
(Branley, 2012), and there will be demand for restaurants and eateries to cater for the cosmopolitan
global populations and cultures living and studying at the university. Being a primarily
accommodation property, different room configurations can be achieved to cater for both
undergraduate and post graduate students studying at the University. These will be small size
apartments/ rooms that are self contained with some sections having common kitchens for students,
and some being fully self contained living apartments with in built kitchens. The envisaged
outcome is an accommodation structure that will have several rooms to maximize returns. With the
University of Newcastle having received a recent upgrade and with future prospects for growth, the
proposed facility offers long term rental incomes, that are on average higher than residential rental
properties.
DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT
Project : Mixed Commercial and Residential Development
The facility will have three floors for the residential apartments and a similar number of floors for
the commercial section. The accommodation section will have an underground parking developed
for student parking and to maximize the use of the land. The commercial section will be located on

the road frontage touching the Robert Street road covering the area that currently has an old
building on it, with an access t the interior separated by a parking lot. The accommodation section
will be at the rear of the building and will have a total of 105 accommodation units, ranging in size
from 36 square meter rooms to 60 square meter accommodation rooms. The commercial center will
cover a total of 1450 square meters on all three floors. The services to be offered will be
accommodation as the primary service, with commercial space for various related services such as
restaurants, shops, and parlors for ice cream and other light retail businesses. This will be a medium
development project in terms of scale.
TARGETED’ LIKELY CUSTOMERS
Primarily, the targeted consumer for the facility are ideally University students and college students
studying at the Newcastle University and students from surrounding colleges, who are not residents
of Jesmond (Kelly, 2015). Given its location and the surrounding residential areas, a few
commercial facilities such as Landry shops, small restaurants offering various types of cuisine such
as oriental and Chinese to cater to the metropolitan and multicultural student population in the area,
as well as specialty shops such as surf hire businesses will add to its allure and increase incomes for
the developer. Potential clients include;
Students-permanent and residential students
Business people seeking to start small businesses like theme restaurants
Tourists
SCHEDULE FOR DEVELOPMENT
The site will be developed by first undertaking a site research and evaluation and agreeing on the
final financial payment terms for the facility. Financing will be arranged and this will be followed
by a survey of the area to establish its exact size for the purposes of planning. After getting the
relevant legal documents, an architect will be engaged to develop designs for the commercial
facilities as well as the residential areas. After finance having been secured and plans developed for
the facility, the architectural firm will then undertake a costing schedule to determine the cost of the
facility in terms of materials and services. Once the plans have been developed, approvals will be
sought and relevant permits obtained, before interested contractors (and sub contractors)are invited
to express interest and give a quotation. A project execution team will be formed at the initial phase
and team members added as and when needed. The contractors will be evaluated and qualified
contractor(s)awarded the contract to start works. The first job will be securing the area, before
demolishing the existing building and removing the debris from site. This will be followed by
ground preparation and then the construction of the facilities, it is envisaged the construction will
take a total of 36 months to have the building ready. Interior design will take a month, where

furniture and other facilities will be sourced and installed on the facility, ready for use. The chart
below shows the schedule for the project
CONSTRUCTION COST
The construction costs for the building will be computed per square meter and will include all costs
of construction; for materials, labor, energy, and facilities/ amenities, as well as finishes. The
proposed finishes is medium quality finishes, this will result in rational costs for construction of the
facility. Further, costs for professional services, including the surveying of the area, incidentals,
licenses, the cost of acquiring the land, as well as professional fees for the architect and the actual
contractor construction costs are computed as shown in the table below;
Description Unit Cost in $ Area/ Quantity Total in $
Site Surveying 4000
Incidentals and
licenses/ stamps
2500
Cost of land acquisition 2500 sqm 1050000
Demolition and
disposal of debris
25000
Construction for
commercial section
1294 1350 sqm 1746900
Construction for
residential/accommodat
ion section
1458 4900 sqm 7144200
Fixtures, fittings,
furniture
2000000
Professional fees 10% 1217260
Total 13189860
The average total cost of developing the property, taking into account incidences and possibly
delays, will be $ 13.2 million

CAPITAL
The company has an equity contribution of 8.5 million, plus another $ 700000 in cash, giving the
company a total capital structure of 9.2 million; the company will still have a shortage of $ 4
million. The company, with a well detailed and promising business plan, will seek financing from a
banking or other financial institution for a medium term loan of five to seven years. This will fund
construction and other works. The acquisition of the facility will be financed by the company
through equity contributions, and this will lead to an increase in the asset value of the company, and
improve its balance sheet. The project will create jobs for about 120 people, directly and indirectly,
and will be able to pay off its loan and interest and be able to break even in a short period, given the
demand for housing and accommodation in the area.
ENVIRONMENT-FRIENDLY FEATURES INCORPORATED INTO PROJECT
Given the increasing energy demands in Australia and the shortage of its supply, the building will be
developed to incorporate as many environmentally sustainable features as possible, to reduce the
cost of ownership and operation, and importantly, reduce material use and energy consumption.
Urban Design
For starters, double sided glass will be used liberally in order to allow as much natural lighting as
possible and to reduce energy needs for cooling during hot periods, due to a double envelop
window.
Labor
The labor used will be in accordance with the NSW labor laws, the anti discrimination acts, and the
work place health and safety laws and standards to ensure full compliance.
Noise
Noise pollution will be avoided during construction through sound deflecting enclosing materials
used to secure the construction site. Care will be taken to minimize dust and debris during the
construction of the facility.
Materials and waste
The design will be done so that few materials are used; Auto CAD and BIM (Building Information
Management) features will be incorporated into the construction to minimize wastage and ensure
efficient life cycle management of the building (Gerrish et al., 2017).
Energy
This will be of great focus in the construction and life cycle management of the building. Solar
roofing material (Tesla) will be used in the development of the roof and/ or solar panels used for

water heating and for lighting purposes so that the building will have a low or net negative carbon
foot print. Double envelop windows will be used, with large windows to allow natural lighting and
reduce air conditioning needs during the hot weather. Further, external air conditioners will be solar
powered to further reduce air conditioning costs; the aim is to depend as little as possible on mains
power supply, manly for running the lifts. BIM will be used for life cycle energy management of the
structure to further maximize energy conservation (Gerrish et al., 2017)
INCOME ESTIMATE
Facility Unit Total (Per annum)
Commercial center $ 22 psq (per square foot per
annum)
343368.74
Accommodation $ 200 (average) per room/ unit,
per week
10080000.00
Gross annual income 1351368.74
Maintenance 10% of income 120000
Total Annual Income 1231369
INVESTMENT PROPOSAL
The proposed investment is that the company will operate the facility for a period of 10 years, and
thereafter, dispose it or sell to acquire a bigger and better commercial building, or invest elsewhere,
considering the region will see a huge demand for housing in the next 20 years, with population
expected to grow at an annual rate of 33 % (Schipp, 2017), (Devine, 2017). To acquire the facility
and develop it, the company will need a total of 13.5 million; it can raise 7.7 million so the firm will
need a loan of 5.8 million to successfully complete the construction. The financing will be financed
on a 68 to 32 percentage financing, equity to debt ratio, that is; $ 9.2 million will be contributed
from equity and $ 4.3 million be obtained through debt as a bank loan. The loan will attract an
interest of 4.87% per annum, on a reducing rate. Maintenance and repairs will cost 10% of the
estimated annual earnings for the facility. The income is expected to increase by an average of 7.5
% per annum as the area has a high demand for housing and accommodation. The property will
appreciate in value by an average of 7.18% per annum, the value at the end of the ten year period
will be $ 26386252
CASH FLOWS – BEFORE TAX

AFTER TAX CASH FLOWS
IRR and NPV- BEFORE TAX
The IRR before tax was computed using the cash flow method in MS Excel; the rate was found to
be 12.2% with a Net Present Value (NPV) of $ 8,931,854 using a discounted rate of 6% per annum

IRR and NPV-AFTER TAX
After tax, the IRR was again computed using the cash flow method it was found to be 10.2% with a
Net Present Value (NPV) of $ 5,530,440 using a discounted rate of 6% per annum
From the analysis of the NPV and IRR, the project is sound, given that its NPV after tax is
$4,057,046, which is 42% of the initial project investment. However taxation has the effect of
significantly reducing the net present value and the IRR, as taxation ‘eats’ into the earnings na cash
flows from the project.
RISK ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
The project will no doubt face some risks including massive scope changes that lead o a rise in the
overall costs, poor demand or non use of the facility, poor workmanship, and abandonment of the
project midway before it is completed. Other risks include being sued by neighbors for
environmental violations and employees getting injured/ hurt, or fatalities resulting from the
construction works requiring massive compensation.
Risk type Description
Business risk The business suffers losses due to competition from cheaper
prices
Vacancy risk A type of risk experienced because the units do not get tenants/
occupants
Environment risk Taxation becomes too high or regulations require the building to
be demolished
Structural risk Poor workmanship requiring major re-works or the building
comes down/ collapses
Project management risks Project abandoned before completion
Legal risks Non compliance with laws and regulations
These risks have various impacts and probabilities of occurrence, and this can be evaluated using
the risk matrix below.
RISK MATRIX
Likelihood/
Severity
Very
unlikely
Unlikely Possible Likely Very likely

High impact Project
management
risks
Business
risk
Structural
risk
Vacancy risk
Major
impact
Environment
risk
Legal risks
Medium
impact
Low impact
No impact
The project is sustainable, given that the rates used to compute capital appreciation and rates of rent
increase are modest. With an expected population explosion and high demand for accommodation,
the annual rent rates may rise at a rate higher than what has been used, meaning that the project is
likely to yield higher returns. Further, with an NPV of $ 5.3 million and an IRR of 10.2%, the
investment is sound as it will give much higher returns than investing in government bonds of the
stock market for a similar time period.
COMPARABLE MARKETS
University residential accommodation rates at $ 225 per week
Home stay placement by the university at a cost of $ 250 per week, including three meals
Home placement by the university at a cost of $ 235 per week for 16 meals, that means lunch is
excluded
Looking at these rates, the investment will provide accommodation for a self contained room at the
rate of $ 180 (on average) as some rooms will cost up to $ 250 depending on configuration while
others will cost as low as $ 140 per week. This makes the business plan plausible and cost
effective, given the self catering option for students with either an inbuilt kitchen per room or a
common kitchen area where up to ten rooms share a common kitchen.

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APPENDICES
Appendix I: Building Plans