Bush’s Foreign Policy Assignment PDF
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Bush’s Foreign Policy (2001-2009)
Bush's main foreign policy advisors were Secretaries of State Colin
Powell and Condoleezza Rice, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, and Vice
President Dick Cheney. Critical geopolitical developments that occurred during Bush's
presidency include the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11,
2001, and the subsequent Global War on Terror.
o September 11 attacks (Mayor turning point – 11/09/2001)
Series of four coordinated terrorist attacks by the Wahhabi terrorist group Al-
Qaeda. The attacks resulted in 2977 fatalities and at least $10 billion in
infrastructure and property damage. That evening, Bush addressed the nation from
the Oval Office, promising a strong response to the attacks. On September 20,
2001 address to congress, Bush condemned Osama bin Laden and his
organization Al-Qaeda, and issued an ultimatum to the Taliban regime in
Afghanistan, where bin Laden was operating, to "hand over the terrorists”
o Bush Doctrine
After the September 11 attacks, Bush decided to use his newfound political capital
to fundamentally change U.S. foreign policy. He became increasingly focused on
the possibility of a hostile country providing weapons of mass destruction to
terrorist organization. During the State of the Union Address of 2002, Bush set
forth what has become known as the Bush Doctrine, which held that the United
States would implement a policy of preemptive military strikes against nation
known to be harboring or aiding a terrorist organization hostile to the U.S. Bush
outlined what he called the he called “Axis of Evil”, consisting of three nations
(Iraq, North Korea and Iran) that, he argued, posed the greatest threat to world
peace due to their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and potential to aid
terrorists.
Principles of the doctrine:
1. The “regime change”
2. The unilateralism and the military interventionism
3. The preemptive war
4. The pressure on the allied nations
Nevertheless, the American doctrine of interventionism sparks number of critics-
specially abroad, development of an American phobia- which ends up with a
tarnished image of America, whereas the issues on the ground cause defections
within the coalition
o National Missile Defense
On December 13, 2001, President Bush announced the withdrawal of the U.S
from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, a bedrock of U.S.- Soviet nuclear
stability during the Cold War era. Bush thought that the treaty hinders the
government’s ability to develop ways to protect the American people from future
terrorist or rogue state missile attacks. The Bush administration pursued a
national missile defense. The National Missile Defense project that Clinton
introduced, and Bush supported was designed to detect intercontinental ballistic
missiles and destroy them in flight. Critics doubted that the project could ever
work and said that it would be expensive.
Bush's main foreign policy advisors were Secretaries of State Colin
Powell and Condoleezza Rice, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, and Vice
President Dick Cheney. Critical geopolitical developments that occurred during Bush's
presidency include the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11,
2001, and the subsequent Global War on Terror.
o September 11 attacks (Mayor turning point – 11/09/2001)
Series of four coordinated terrorist attacks by the Wahhabi terrorist group Al-
Qaeda. The attacks resulted in 2977 fatalities and at least $10 billion in
infrastructure and property damage. That evening, Bush addressed the nation from
the Oval Office, promising a strong response to the attacks. On September 20,
2001 address to congress, Bush condemned Osama bin Laden and his
organization Al-Qaeda, and issued an ultimatum to the Taliban regime in
Afghanistan, where bin Laden was operating, to "hand over the terrorists”
o Bush Doctrine
After the September 11 attacks, Bush decided to use his newfound political capital
to fundamentally change U.S. foreign policy. He became increasingly focused on
the possibility of a hostile country providing weapons of mass destruction to
terrorist organization. During the State of the Union Address of 2002, Bush set
forth what has become known as the Bush Doctrine, which held that the United
States would implement a policy of preemptive military strikes against nation
known to be harboring or aiding a terrorist organization hostile to the U.S. Bush
outlined what he called the he called “Axis of Evil”, consisting of three nations
(Iraq, North Korea and Iran) that, he argued, posed the greatest threat to world
peace due to their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and potential to aid
terrorists.
Principles of the doctrine:
1. The “regime change”
2. The unilateralism and the military interventionism
3. The preemptive war
4. The pressure on the allied nations
Nevertheless, the American doctrine of interventionism sparks number of critics-
specially abroad, development of an American phobia- which ends up with a
tarnished image of America, whereas the issues on the ground cause defections
within the coalition
o National Missile Defense
On December 13, 2001, President Bush announced the withdrawal of the U.S
from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, a bedrock of U.S.- Soviet nuclear
stability during the Cold War era. Bush thought that the treaty hinders the
government’s ability to develop ways to protect the American people from future
terrorist or rogue state missile attacks. The Bush administration pursued a
national missile defense. The National Missile Defense project that Clinton
introduced, and Bush supported was designed to detect intercontinental ballistic
missiles and destroy them in flight. Critics doubted that the project could ever
work and said that it would be expensive.
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Operation “Enduring Freedom” (Global War on Terrorism)
Operation Enduring Freedom as originally planned was a response to the September 11,
2001 attacks on the United States. It was, in its first manifestation, a military operation
against the Taliban government of Afghanistan and the network of foreign groups,
including al-Qaeda, believed responsible for the September 11 attacks.
The U.S.-led coalition’s initial military operations in Afghanistan, from September through
December 2001, were directed at the Taliban forces and their foreign allies. In late
September, CIA forces entered Afghanistan to organize existing Afghan anti-Taliban forces
(primarily the loose coalition of groups called the Northern Alliance) and assist covert U.S.
Army and Air Force units to transport equipment into the country.
Throughout the first phase of the conflict, millions of dollars in cash and significant
amounts of weapons, communications equipment, and other military supplies were
ferried into Afghanistan and given to anti-Taliban forces. As the war progressed, the
U.S. advance teams were joined by Army Special Forces and Special Forces units from the
Navy and Air Force, and ultimately, regular army ground troops and units from coalition
partners such as the United Kingdom and Australia. Over the next two months, the
U.S.-led coalition carried out an extensive air campaign against the Taliban and its allies.
Anti-Taliban forces on the ground initially assisted in identifying targets for the air
campaign and later advanced and seized areas held by Taliban and al-Qaeda forces.
Since December 2001, the U.S.-led coalition’s primary military focus has been on locating
remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda which did no surrender and fled into remote areas of
the country.
However, there was and is more to Operation Enduring Freedom than military operations
against Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants. Coalition operations have included investigative
and intelligence-gathering components aimed at locating or uncovering threats to the
United States and other coalition members and disrupting or eliminating those
threats. Operations have also included efforts to capture terrorist suspects a gather
intelligence in Afghanistan as part of the global campaign to disrupt the worldwide
operations of al-Qaeda.
o For a decade, Western coalition and international organizations rhetoric is
dominated by the announcement of the future progress of the Afghan state.
However, the regime installed after the September 2001 invasion does not reach the
level of territorial control reached by the Taliban before their fall.
o Fraud, corruption, opium trafficking, social inequalities were presented after the
American intervention.
o The return of insurrection: strong attrition among the army, ambiguous role of
Pakistan, anti-American sentiment, etc.
Zero Dark Thirty
On May 2, 2011, a US special forces team stormed a walled compound in the northeastern
Pakistani city of Abbottabad, near a Pakistani military base, and shot dead Osama bin
Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda, adding growing American mistrust with the army of this
country.
The operation, carried out in the early hours of the morning, brought an end to a 10-year
hunt for the world’s most-wanted terrorist, responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks on the US in
2001 and numerous other terrorist outrages.
Operation Enduring Freedom as originally planned was a response to the September 11,
2001 attacks on the United States. It was, in its first manifestation, a military operation
against the Taliban government of Afghanistan and the network of foreign groups,
including al-Qaeda, believed responsible for the September 11 attacks.
The U.S.-led coalition’s initial military operations in Afghanistan, from September through
December 2001, were directed at the Taliban forces and their foreign allies. In late
September, CIA forces entered Afghanistan to organize existing Afghan anti-Taliban forces
(primarily the loose coalition of groups called the Northern Alliance) and assist covert U.S.
Army and Air Force units to transport equipment into the country.
Throughout the first phase of the conflict, millions of dollars in cash and significant
amounts of weapons, communications equipment, and other military supplies were
ferried into Afghanistan and given to anti-Taliban forces. As the war progressed, the
U.S. advance teams were joined by Army Special Forces and Special Forces units from the
Navy and Air Force, and ultimately, regular army ground troops and units from coalition
partners such as the United Kingdom and Australia. Over the next two months, the
U.S.-led coalition carried out an extensive air campaign against the Taliban and its allies.
Anti-Taliban forces on the ground initially assisted in identifying targets for the air
campaign and later advanced and seized areas held by Taliban and al-Qaeda forces.
Since December 2001, the U.S.-led coalition’s primary military focus has been on locating
remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda which did no surrender and fled into remote areas of
the country.
However, there was and is more to Operation Enduring Freedom than military operations
against Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants. Coalition operations have included investigative
and intelligence-gathering components aimed at locating or uncovering threats to the
United States and other coalition members and disrupting or eliminating those
threats. Operations have also included efforts to capture terrorist suspects a gather
intelligence in Afghanistan as part of the global campaign to disrupt the worldwide
operations of al-Qaeda.
o For a decade, Western coalition and international organizations rhetoric is
dominated by the announcement of the future progress of the Afghan state.
However, the regime installed after the September 2001 invasion does not reach the
level of territorial control reached by the Taliban before their fall.
o Fraud, corruption, opium trafficking, social inequalities were presented after the
American intervention.
o The return of insurrection: strong attrition among the army, ambiguous role of
Pakistan, anti-American sentiment, etc.
Zero Dark Thirty
On May 2, 2011, a US special forces team stormed a walled compound in the northeastern
Pakistani city of Abbottabad, near a Pakistani military base, and shot dead Osama bin
Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda, adding growing American mistrust with the army of this
country.
The operation, carried out in the early hours of the morning, brought an end to a 10-year
hunt for the world’s most-wanted terrorist, responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks on the US in
2001 and numerous other terrorist outrages.
Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003)
19 March (air) 20 March 2003 (ground) marked the beginning of Operation Iraqi
Freedom with preemptive airstrikes on Saddam Hussein’s Presidential Palace and military
targets followed by approximately 67,700 “boots on the ground” with 15,000 Navy
personnel on ships in the region. U.S, U.K, Australia and Poland invaded Iraq.
Iraqi forces were overwhelmed quickly, and Baghdad fell a mere five weeks after the
invasion began. With the invasion complete, an insurgency and influx of al Qaeda
inspired fighters poured into the country which sparked guerilla warfare tactics
against U.S. troops and civil war between the Sunni and Shia tribes. On 15 December
2011, “The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other top U.S. military leaders
observed the official end of U.S. Forces Iraq’s mission after nearly nine years of conflict
that claimed the lives of nearly 4,500 troops”
After U.S. forces withdrew from Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
invaded areas of Syria and Iraq causing widespread causalities, destruction of the
country’s infrastructure and barbaric practices against citizens. In response to the terrorists’
group, Operation Inherent Resolve began 17 October 2014.
Obama Foreign Policy
Cairo Speech: Barack Obama opens another chapter in the Muslim World. On June 4, 2009,
President Obama proposed a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the
world, based upon mutual interest and mutual respect.
29 June 2014
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi proclamed the rebirth of the caliphate taing the name of caliph Ibrahim
End of 2011
The total disengagement end
August 2010The American troops withdraw from Iraq, as planned by Washington agenda and adopted by Baghdad in
November 2008.
30 December 2006Saddam Hussein is hanged in Bagdad. Arrested and had been charged with "crimes against humanity", "war
crimes" and "genocide" by Iraqi special court and condemmed to death penalty
15 October 2005
Iraqi adopt the new Constitution establishing Iraq as a federal state with a parliamentary democratic regime
2004Clashes between the US-British coalition, supporters of Shiite leader Moqtada Al-Sadrs and those of the Sunnite
leader Abou Al-Zarkaoui.
09 April 2003
Baghdad falls
20 March 2003
Beginnig of the US-British military intervention in Iraq.
IRAQ-U.S Key Dates
19 March (air) 20 March 2003 (ground) marked the beginning of Operation Iraqi
Freedom with preemptive airstrikes on Saddam Hussein’s Presidential Palace and military
targets followed by approximately 67,700 “boots on the ground” with 15,000 Navy
personnel on ships in the region. U.S, U.K, Australia and Poland invaded Iraq.
Iraqi forces were overwhelmed quickly, and Baghdad fell a mere five weeks after the
invasion began. With the invasion complete, an insurgency and influx of al Qaeda
inspired fighters poured into the country which sparked guerilla warfare tactics
against U.S. troops and civil war between the Sunni and Shia tribes. On 15 December
2011, “The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other top U.S. military leaders
observed the official end of U.S. Forces Iraq’s mission after nearly nine years of conflict
that claimed the lives of nearly 4,500 troops”
After U.S. forces withdrew from Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
invaded areas of Syria and Iraq causing widespread causalities, destruction of the
country’s infrastructure and barbaric practices against citizens. In response to the terrorists’
group, Operation Inherent Resolve began 17 October 2014.
Obama Foreign Policy
Cairo Speech: Barack Obama opens another chapter in the Muslim World. On June 4, 2009,
President Obama proposed a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the
world, based upon mutual interest and mutual respect.
29 June 2014
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi proclamed the rebirth of the caliphate taing the name of caliph Ibrahim
End of 2011
The total disengagement end
August 2010The American troops withdraw from Iraq, as planned by Washington agenda and adopted by Baghdad in
November 2008.
30 December 2006Saddam Hussein is hanged in Bagdad. Arrested and had been charged with "crimes against humanity", "war
crimes" and "genocide" by Iraqi special court and condemmed to death penalty
15 October 2005
Iraqi adopt the new Constitution establishing Iraq as a federal state with a parliamentary democratic regime
2004Clashes between the US-British coalition, supporters of Shiite leader Moqtada Al-Sadrs and those of the Sunnite
leader Abou Al-Zarkaoui.
09 April 2003
Baghdad falls
20 March 2003
Beginnig of the US-British military intervention in Iraq.
IRAQ-U.S Key Dates
- He seeks a more comprehensive engagement with Muslim-majority countries by expanding
partnerships in areas like education, economic development, science and technology,
health, among others, while continuing to work together to address issues of common
concern.
- Egypt was chosen because it is a country that in many ways represents the heart of the Arab
World.
- It was the end of the ideological rhetoric of the war of Good versus Evil and the Axis of
Evil.
- They wanted to recover the American legitimacy and credibility in the Middle East.
Some changes were identified in the continuity such as:
- The willingness to normalize the relation with Syria and Iran throughout a nuclear
agreement on July 14th, 2015 by the P5+1 and the Islamic Republic of Ian in Vienna.
P5+1, refers to the UN Security Council´s five permanent members (China, France, Russia,
the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany), who joined together in
diplomatic efforts with Iran with regard to its nuclear program.
- The revival of the centrality process in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Obama declared
himself in favor of the future Palestinian state creation.
The leaders overthrown by the Arab Spring (2011): The Arab Spring was a series of anti-
government protests, uprising, and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab World in
the early 2010s. it began in response to oppressive regimes and a low standard of living, starting
with protests in Tunisia.
Major events:
- Tunisia (18 December 2010 – 14 January 2011): Overthrow of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali
(1989 – 2011), Ben Ali flees into exile in Saudi Arabia.
- Egypt (25 January 2011): Overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, who is later convicted of
corruption and ordered to stand trial for ordering the killing of protesters. It was followed
by another government overthrow in July 2013 and the Egyptian Crisis until 2014.
- Yemen (27 January 2011): Overthrow of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Saleh granted immunity from
prosecution.
- Libya (15 February 2011): The major protests began on 17 February 2011, government
overthrown of Muammar Gaddafi on 23 August 2011.
From Al – Qaeda to Daech
“The Base” (Al-Qaeda) was founded in August 1988 in the suburban Peshawar (Pakistan) by
Osama bin Laden.
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was founded in 1999 by Jordanian Salafi jihadist Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi. It gathered Al-Qaeda veterans and former Saddam Hussein army, and from a
group of Syrian rebels. Its first actions took place in April 2013, then in 2014 after having extended
its control on a significant part of Iraq territory, ISIS proclaims the new caliphate led by his leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was born in Samarra northern Iraq in 1971. In 2013 he formed the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In June 2014, proclaims a “caliphate” and the
ISIL becomes the Islamic State Group (IS). On October 31, 2019 his death was confirmed
by IS a new leader was designated: Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi.
Syria, a big headache in Barack Obama foreign policy outcome
partnerships in areas like education, economic development, science and technology,
health, among others, while continuing to work together to address issues of common
concern.
- Egypt was chosen because it is a country that in many ways represents the heart of the Arab
World.
- It was the end of the ideological rhetoric of the war of Good versus Evil and the Axis of
Evil.
- They wanted to recover the American legitimacy and credibility in the Middle East.
Some changes were identified in the continuity such as:
- The willingness to normalize the relation with Syria and Iran throughout a nuclear
agreement on July 14th, 2015 by the P5+1 and the Islamic Republic of Ian in Vienna.
P5+1, refers to the UN Security Council´s five permanent members (China, France, Russia,
the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany), who joined together in
diplomatic efforts with Iran with regard to its nuclear program.
- The revival of the centrality process in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Obama declared
himself in favor of the future Palestinian state creation.
The leaders overthrown by the Arab Spring (2011): The Arab Spring was a series of anti-
government protests, uprising, and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab World in
the early 2010s. it began in response to oppressive regimes and a low standard of living, starting
with protests in Tunisia.
Major events:
- Tunisia (18 December 2010 – 14 January 2011): Overthrow of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali
(1989 – 2011), Ben Ali flees into exile in Saudi Arabia.
- Egypt (25 January 2011): Overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, who is later convicted of
corruption and ordered to stand trial for ordering the killing of protesters. It was followed
by another government overthrow in July 2013 and the Egyptian Crisis until 2014.
- Yemen (27 January 2011): Overthrow of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Saleh granted immunity from
prosecution.
- Libya (15 February 2011): The major protests began on 17 February 2011, government
overthrown of Muammar Gaddafi on 23 August 2011.
From Al – Qaeda to Daech
“The Base” (Al-Qaeda) was founded in August 1988 in the suburban Peshawar (Pakistan) by
Osama bin Laden.
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was founded in 1999 by Jordanian Salafi jihadist Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi. It gathered Al-Qaeda veterans and former Saddam Hussein army, and from a
group of Syrian rebels. Its first actions took place in April 2013, then in 2014 after having extended
its control on a significant part of Iraq territory, ISIS proclaims the new caliphate led by his leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was born in Samarra northern Iraq in 1971. In 2013 he formed the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In June 2014, proclaims a “caliphate” and the
ISIL becomes the Islamic State Group (IS). On October 31, 2019 his death was confirmed
by IS a new leader was designated: Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi.
Syria, a big headache in Barack Obama foreign policy outcome
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In 2012, Obama said that the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government would be crossing
a red line and would entail U.S. military action. On August 21, 2013 took place the Ghouta
chemical attack and Obama administration formally blamed the incident on the Syrian government
and sought Congressional approval for military action in Syria.
Obama asked for the support of Britain and France to attack Syria. However, on September 2013
Obama put a military strike or combat operations on hold and achieved an agreement with Russia
and the Syrian government to destroy all chemical weapons in Syria.
- Obama´s decision to allow the violation of a red line was widely criticized by the U.S. But
in 2016, Obama said he was proud of his decision since he avoided entangling the US in yet
another unfixable situation in the Middle East.
- In 2017, Russia forged closer ties with Turkey and Saudi Arabia on the back of its
successful military campaign in Syria. Some analysts said that Russia´s clout in the region
had grown because Obama allowed it to.
Trump Presidency
- Sanctuarisation of the territory and American interest. “The Muslim ban” or the Executive
Order 13769 (January 27, 2017), was an executive order by United States president
Donald Trump. It lowered the number of refugees to be admitted into the United States in
2017 to 50,000. It suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program for 120 days,
suspended the entry of Syrian refugees indefinitely. This executive was targeted for those
countries that cannot ensure stability and the security of the American interest.
- He strengthens the cooperation with some allies as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.
- Recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital city.
- On March 25, 2019, Donald Trump signed the decree recognizing Israeli sovereignty on the
Golan Heights, won by the Hebrew state in 1967.
- Opposition to Iran, US withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2018.
- The American embassy in Tel-Aviv moved to Jerusalem on May 14, 2018.
The Yemen Conflict
- The conflict has its roots in the Arab Spring of 2011, when an uprising forced the country's
long-time authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to hand over power to his deputy,
Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. The political transition was supposed to bring stability to
Yemen, one of the Middle East's poorest nations, but President Hadi struggled to deal with
various problems including militant attacks, corruption, food insecurity, and continuing
loyalty of many military officers to Saleh.
- Fighting began in 2014 when the Houthi Shia Muslim rebel movement took advantage of
the new president's weakness and seized control of northern Saada province and
neighbouring areas. The Houthis went on to take the capital Sanaa, forcing Mr Hadi into
exile abroad.
- The conflict escalated dramatically in March 2015, when Saudi Arabia and eight other
mostly Sunni Arab states - backed by the US, UK, and France - began air strikes against
the Houthis, with the declared aim of restoring Mr Hadi's government.
- The Saudi-led coalition feared that continued success of the Houthis would give their rival
regional power and Shia-majority state, Iran, a foothold in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern
a red line and would entail U.S. military action. On August 21, 2013 took place the Ghouta
chemical attack and Obama administration formally blamed the incident on the Syrian government
and sought Congressional approval for military action in Syria.
Obama asked for the support of Britain and France to attack Syria. However, on September 2013
Obama put a military strike or combat operations on hold and achieved an agreement with Russia
and the Syrian government to destroy all chemical weapons in Syria.
- Obama´s decision to allow the violation of a red line was widely criticized by the U.S. But
in 2016, Obama said he was proud of his decision since he avoided entangling the US in yet
another unfixable situation in the Middle East.
- In 2017, Russia forged closer ties with Turkey and Saudi Arabia on the back of its
successful military campaign in Syria. Some analysts said that Russia´s clout in the region
had grown because Obama allowed it to.
Trump Presidency
- Sanctuarisation of the territory and American interest. “The Muslim ban” or the Executive
Order 13769 (January 27, 2017), was an executive order by United States president
Donald Trump. It lowered the number of refugees to be admitted into the United States in
2017 to 50,000. It suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program for 120 days,
suspended the entry of Syrian refugees indefinitely. This executive was targeted for those
countries that cannot ensure stability and the security of the American interest.
- He strengthens the cooperation with some allies as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.
- Recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital city.
- On March 25, 2019, Donald Trump signed the decree recognizing Israeli sovereignty on the
Golan Heights, won by the Hebrew state in 1967.
- Opposition to Iran, US withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2018.
- The American embassy in Tel-Aviv moved to Jerusalem on May 14, 2018.
The Yemen Conflict
- The conflict has its roots in the Arab Spring of 2011, when an uprising forced the country's
long-time authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to hand over power to his deputy,
Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. The political transition was supposed to bring stability to
Yemen, one of the Middle East's poorest nations, but President Hadi struggled to deal with
various problems including militant attacks, corruption, food insecurity, and continuing
loyalty of many military officers to Saleh.
- Fighting began in 2014 when the Houthi Shia Muslim rebel movement took advantage of
the new president's weakness and seized control of northern Saada province and
neighbouring areas. The Houthis went on to take the capital Sanaa, forcing Mr Hadi into
exile abroad.
- The conflict escalated dramatically in March 2015, when Saudi Arabia and eight other
mostly Sunni Arab states - backed by the US, UK, and France - began air strikes against
the Houthis, with the declared aim of restoring Mr Hadi's government.
- The Saudi-led coalition feared that continued success of the Houthis would give their rival
regional power and Shia-majority state, Iran, a foothold in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern
neighbour. Saudi Arabia says Iran is backing the Houthis with weapons and logistical
support - a charge Iran denies.
- Both sides have since been beset by infighting. The Houthis broke with Saleh and he was
killed by Houthi fighters in December 2017. On the anti-Houthi side, militias include
separatists seeking independence for south Yemen and factions who oppose the idea.
- The stalemate has produced an unrelenting humanitarian crisis, with at least 8.4 million
people at risk of starvation and 22.2 million people - 75% of the population - in need of
humanitarian assistance, according to the UN. Severe acute malnutrition is threatening the
lives of almost 400,000 children under the age of five.
Attacks in Saudi Arabia: Mike Pompeo calls an “act of war” from Iran
On 14 September 2019, Aramco was attacked with drones. The Houthi movement in Yemen
claimed responsibility, tying it to events surrounding the Saudi Arabian intervention in the Yemeni
Civil War and stating they used ten drones in the attack launched from Yemen, south of the
facilities.
Summary of events
- 4 June 2009: Cairo Speech
- From 18 December 2010: Arab Springs
- From 15 March 2011: Syrian civil war
- 29 June 2014: Proclamation of the Islamic State Caliphate
- 14 July 2015: Iranian nuclear deal (Vienna), P5 +1 accord
- 3 January 2020: Elimination of General Qassem Soleimani by US drone strike
Post WWII and France loss of influence in North Africa and the Middle East
A.The ambiguities of the French policy under the 4th Républic.
B.Meanwhile, an ambivalent attitude towards Israel.
C. France foreign policy under the 5th Republic
II. French policy main directions
A. France and Iran : a difficult relation…
B. When France played on both sides… and saving good deals…
C.Principle and weakness of Lebanese confessionalism
Post WWII and France’s loss of influence in North Africa and the middle East:
(before: After WWI, Syria and Lebanon became a French protectorate (thinly disguised as a
League of Nations Mandate) French control was met immediately with armed resistance, so to
combat Arab nationalism France divided the Mandate area into Lebanon and four sub-states.)
French foreign policy started with some ambiguities under the fourth republic:
1) The independence of Lebanon – November 1943. French general de Gaulle de leader of
free French grants the independence of Lebanon. But it will be effective only after 3 years
after the declaration in 1946. French troops stayed more than 3 years and then they were
forced to leave by British.
The ambiguity: General de Gaulle declare the independent of Lebanon, but it has been
effective only 3 years after.
support - a charge Iran denies.
- Both sides have since been beset by infighting. The Houthis broke with Saleh and he was
killed by Houthi fighters in December 2017. On the anti-Houthi side, militias include
separatists seeking independence for south Yemen and factions who oppose the idea.
- The stalemate has produced an unrelenting humanitarian crisis, with at least 8.4 million
people at risk of starvation and 22.2 million people - 75% of the population - in need of
humanitarian assistance, according to the UN. Severe acute malnutrition is threatening the
lives of almost 400,000 children under the age of five.
Attacks in Saudi Arabia: Mike Pompeo calls an “act of war” from Iran
On 14 September 2019, Aramco was attacked with drones. The Houthi movement in Yemen
claimed responsibility, tying it to events surrounding the Saudi Arabian intervention in the Yemeni
Civil War and stating they used ten drones in the attack launched from Yemen, south of the
facilities.
Summary of events
- 4 June 2009: Cairo Speech
- From 18 December 2010: Arab Springs
- From 15 March 2011: Syrian civil war
- 29 June 2014: Proclamation of the Islamic State Caliphate
- 14 July 2015: Iranian nuclear deal (Vienna), P5 +1 accord
- 3 January 2020: Elimination of General Qassem Soleimani by US drone strike
Post WWII and France loss of influence in North Africa and the Middle East
A.The ambiguities of the French policy under the 4th Républic.
B.Meanwhile, an ambivalent attitude towards Israel.
C. France foreign policy under the 5th Republic
II. French policy main directions
A. France and Iran : a difficult relation…
B. When France played on both sides… and saving good deals…
C.Principle and weakness of Lebanese confessionalism
Post WWII and France’s loss of influence in North Africa and the middle East:
(before: After WWI, Syria and Lebanon became a French protectorate (thinly disguised as a
League of Nations Mandate) French control was met immediately with armed resistance, so to
combat Arab nationalism France divided the Mandate area into Lebanon and four sub-states.)
French foreign policy started with some ambiguities under the fourth republic:
1) The independence of Lebanon – November 1943. French general de Gaulle de leader of
free French grants the independence of Lebanon. But it will be effective only after 3 years
after the declaration in 1946. French troops stayed more than 3 years and then they were
forced to leave by British.
The ambiguity: General de Gaulle declare the independent of Lebanon, but it has been
effective only 3 years after.
The reason: Lebanon, during the WWII, was a strategic player in the region, so France
wanted to keep some troops on the Lebanon territory.
2) France’s loss of influence in the region comes also from factors linked to the
decolonization/Arab nationalist movement:
2.1) (the most important event) Beginning of Algerian War started by General De Gaulle
in 1954 and ended in 1962 with the Evian agreement. According to the history’s book this
war has started in 1954 but actually it started earlier. It supposed to be started during the
rise of Arab nationalism and the constitution of groups of independent nationalists in
Algeria especially in the North of Algeria. These groups started armed a confrontation with
the French state during the event of Toussaint rouge in 1954.
2.2) end of the protectorates in Morocco and Tunisia (March 1956);
2.3) Suez crisis (nov. 1956) following the Suez Canal nationalization by Abdel Nasser);
This Algerian war represents the problems that these two-country had and have nowadays,
moreover it tarnished the image of France in the Arab world and among the neighbouring country
such as Iran (which has been neutral among this period, they didn’t criticize the French acts during
the war). This neutrality is an important event to following the story and the relation btw France and
Iran.
Meanwhile, an ambivalent attitude towards Israel
Nevertheless, Israel has been neutral during the A. war and it helped France by proving some
information about Algerian separatist, their relations could be considered as ambiguous.
This ambivalent attitude of France towards Israel emerged during the resolution 181 (nov. 1947)
when France recognized the creation of Israel but the recognition de facto of the Hebrew state and
de jure happened only one year after (1949).
Another ambivalent attitude is the rapprochement of the two-state following the Suez crisis when
Israel troops joint the French and brithish one in the invasion of Egypt.
FRANCE FOREIGN POLICY UNDER THE FIFTH REPUBLIC
The warm-ambivalent relation between Iran and France armament had been stopped with the fifth
republic started by Charles De Gaulle. He started a Gaullist period marked by the “French Arab
policy” (1967).
What is French Arab policy?
De Gaulle wanted Israel to not get involve in these 6 days war otherwise France it would have stop
the supplier of arm to Israel.
This this happened, because Israel intervened in the war and as promised de Gaulle stopped to
supply the armament to them.
This episode marked the end of the commercial relationship between Israel and France and the
beginning of the French Arab policy.
Indeed, French Arab policy started in 1967 and the goal was above all to regain a foothold in the
Mediterranean periphery and regain a better image tarnished in the Middle East.
This policy led to some ambiguities..
Example. The deal on more than 100 Mirage aircrafts sale and their gradual shipping until 1974 to
Libya did not have to be revealed. On power following the September 1st, 1969 coup, Gaddafi
needs weapons and visit Paris in December the same year. It is then that France and Libya agreed
on the French aircrafts sale. Publicly released by the Israeli secret services, the transaction is a
wanted to keep some troops on the Lebanon territory.
2) France’s loss of influence in the region comes also from factors linked to the
decolonization/Arab nationalist movement:
2.1) (the most important event) Beginning of Algerian War started by General De Gaulle
in 1954 and ended in 1962 with the Evian agreement. According to the history’s book this
war has started in 1954 but actually it started earlier. It supposed to be started during the
rise of Arab nationalism and the constitution of groups of independent nationalists in
Algeria especially in the North of Algeria. These groups started armed a confrontation with
the French state during the event of Toussaint rouge in 1954.
2.2) end of the protectorates in Morocco and Tunisia (March 1956);
2.3) Suez crisis (nov. 1956) following the Suez Canal nationalization by Abdel Nasser);
This Algerian war represents the problems that these two-country had and have nowadays,
moreover it tarnished the image of France in the Arab world and among the neighbouring country
such as Iran (which has been neutral among this period, they didn’t criticize the French acts during
the war). This neutrality is an important event to following the story and the relation btw France and
Iran.
Meanwhile, an ambivalent attitude towards Israel
Nevertheless, Israel has been neutral during the A. war and it helped France by proving some
information about Algerian separatist, their relations could be considered as ambiguous.
This ambivalent attitude of France towards Israel emerged during the resolution 181 (nov. 1947)
when France recognized the creation of Israel but the recognition de facto of the Hebrew state and
de jure happened only one year after (1949).
Another ambivalent attitude is the rapprochement of the two-state following the Suez crisis when
Israel troops joint the French and brithish one in the invasion of Egypt.
FRANCE FOREIGN POLICY UNDER THE FIFTH REPUBLIC
The warm-ambivalent relation between Iran and France armament had been stopped with the fifth
republic started by Charles De Gaulle. He started a Gaullist period marked by the “French Arab
policy” (1967).
What is French Arab policy?
De Gaulle wanted Israel to not get involve in these 6 days war otherwise France it would have stop
the supplier of arm to Israel.
This this happened, because Israel intervened in the war and as promised de Gaulle stopped to
supply the armament to them.
This episode marked the end of the commercial relationship between Israel and France and the
beginning of the French Arab policy.
Indeed, French Arab policy started in 1967 and the goal was above all to regain a foothold in the
Mediterranean periphery and regain a better image tarnished in the Middle East.
This policy led to some ambiguities..
Example. The deal on more than 100 Mirage aircrafts sale and their gradual shipping until 1974 to
Libya did not have to be revealed. On power following the September 1st, 1969 coup, Gaddafi
needs weapons and visit Paris in December the same year. It is then that France and Libya agreed
on the French aircrafts sale. Publicly released by the Israeli secret services, the transaction is a
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shock, for the reason that in the same time, France blocked the Mirage aircrafts delivery to Israel,
under a weapon import embargo, decided by General de Gaulle after the 6 Days War..
Main aspects of French Arab policy:
- Respect the international law and respect the united nation resolutions
- Sustain the double principle universally accepted by the international community of:
Israel’s rights for security and Palestinian's rights for a state (justice for all people).
These main aspects has been the main points of “Venice declaration” (1980):
The heads of the states and governments held a comprehensive exchange of views on all aspects of
the present situation in the Middle east, in particular the state of negotiations resulting from the
agreements signed between Egypt and Israel (1979).
The 9 members of Europe community decided to collaborate in a concrete way towards peace, in
order to try to put an end to the violence. The 9 country stress the need for Israel to put an end to the
territorial occupation which it has maintained since the conflict of 1969. They think that Israeli
settlement constitute a serious obstacle to the peace process in the middle east. They bars
themselves on : resolutions state 242 and resolutions state 338.
(With the Gaullists return to power in 1995 (Jacques Chirac), we noted strong diplomatic
gestures : the French diplomatic activism in the Near East in 1996, President Chirac speech on the
“Arab policy" at the Cairo University the same year, the refusal of the American war in Irak in
2003, diplomatic rupture with Syria after the assassination of Lebanese Rafic Hariri in 2005.)
FRANCE AND IRAN: A DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP
The relationships between these two country has always been unstable and complicated.
To remember: 1) Iran restrain from critics when France was involved in the Algerian war, and 2) De
Gaulle wanted to regain some influence in the middle east turn to Iran and a non-Arab country to
start some commercial relations.
De Gaulle was invited at the French embassy in Tehran 1963, he was the first French president, he
was admired by Pahlavi for his political position and for his tendency to rise and protect French
sovereignty from the USA.
(Indeed, Charles de Gaulle had this policy of “Grande ère de la France”, and an image that France is
powerful and independent.)
This meeting in Tehran had the specific purpose to start again relations in the middle east and Iran
of the Shah was a friend country.
So, this Gaullist orientation towards Iran had been followed by Valery Giscard d'Estaing who was
the French president in the 70s.
In 1967 was the last visit of France in Iran because the relationship started to be difficult, indeed a
difficult relationship illustrated by ambiguous games that Valery Giscard d'Estaing played with Iran
in the late 70s prior to the revolution of Iran: On one side, contract war, signed with Iran and the
Shah (he was keen to continue a relationship with the shah) while in the same time he granted
political asylum in France one year before revolution to his main political opponent Ayatollah
Khomeini (keen to protect the main opponent only to continue to observe and to be updated with
the news in Iran).
During the 70s the French company called “Eurodif” signed a nuclear contract with Iran in order to
participate in to the Iranian nuclear program started by the Shah. Eurodif, participated supplying
nuclear installations and uranium (material used for the nuclear bomb).
23% of eurodif was possession of Iranian gov.
In 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini led the revolution and the Islamic republic in Iran, Iran broke
this contract because France no longer supply uranium.
under a weapon import embargo, decided by General de Gaulle after the 6 Days War..
Main aspects of French Arab policy:
- Respect the international law and respect the united nation resolutions
- Sustain the double principle universally accepted by the international community of:
Israel’s rights for security and Palestinian's rights for a state (justice for all people).
These main aspects has been the main points of “Venice declaration” (1980):
The heads of the states and governments held a comprehensive exchange of views on all aspects of
the present situation in the Middle east, in particular the state of negotiations resulting from the
agreements signed between Egypt and Israel (1979).
The 9 members of Europe community decided to collaborate in a concrete way towards peace, in
order to try to put an end to the violence. The 9 country stress the need for Israel to put an end to the
territorial occupation which it has maintained since the conflict of 1969. They think that Israeli
settlement constitute a serious obstacle to the peace process in the middle east. They bars
themselves on : resolutions state 242 and resolutions state 338.
(With the Gaullists return to power in 1995 (Jacques Chirac), we noted strong diplomatic
gestures : the French diplomatic activism in the Near East in 1996, President Chirac speech on the
“Arab policy" at the Cairo University the same year, the refusal of the American war in Irak in
2003, diplomatic rupture with Syria after the assassination of Lebanese Rafic Hariri in 2005.)
FRANCE AND IRAN: A DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP
The relationships between these two country has always been unstable and complicated.
To remember: 1) Iran restrain from critics when France was involved in the Algerian war, and 2) De
Gaulle wanted to regain some influence in the middle east turn to Iran and a non-Arab country to
start some commercial relations.
De Gaulle was invited at the French embassy in Tehran 1963, he was the first French president, he
was admired by Pahlavi for his political position and for his tendency to rise and protect French
sovereignty from the USA.
(Indeed, Charles de Gaulle had this policy of “Grande ère de la France”, and an image that France is
powerful and independent.)
This meeting in Tehran had the specific purpose to start again relations in the middle east and Iran
of the Shah was a friend country.
So, this Gaullist orientation towards Iran had been followed by Valery Giscard d'Estaing who was
the French president in the 70s.
In 1967 was the last visit of France in Iran because the relationship started to be difficult, indeed a
difficult relationship illustrated by ambiguous games that Valery Giscard d'Estaing played with Iran
in the late 70s prior to the revolution of Iran: On one side, contract war, signed with Iran and the
Shah (he was keen to continue a relationship with the shah) while in the same time he granted
political asylum in France one year before revolution to his main political opponent Ayatollah
Khomeini (keen to protect the main opponent only to continue to observe and to be updated with
the news in Iran).
During the 70s the French company called “Eurodif” signed a nuclear contract with Iran in order to
participate in to the Iranian nuclear program started by the Shah. Eurodif, participated supplying
nuclear installations and uranium (material used for the nuclear bomb).
23% of eurodif was possession of Iranian gov.
In 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini led the revolution and the Islamic republic in Iran, Iran broke
this contract because France no longer supply uranium.
Ayatollah Khomeini asked also his money back to the French gov (eurodif) and they refused to
reimburse them. This commercial dispute lasted until the late 80s in 1988. This caused also the
Paris bombardments attacked by Iran and the hostage crisis in Lebanon.
FRENCH POLICY TOWARDS IRAK
IRAK WAS ON OF THE best middle estern country partner with France. The begin of the relations
back to 1962.
Hussain and Pompidou: iraki oil was a key factor of the relationship, France energetic strategy was
to diversify its oil supply (at the beg of the oil crisis)
Valery with Hussain: this cooperation would have been in the nuclear and the uranium as Iran in
1974. In 1980 France delivered two nuclear centrals to Irak,
Irak was extremely important to France during the France Arab-policy.
In fact, before the Irak war, there were based 55 French companies Irak ,with the presence of
10’000 French technician working there. Moreover, Irak was the first commercial partner of France
and the second most important oil supplier to France. The armaments deals with Irak was on
French aircrafts.
Iran-irak war: (see MCQ papers)
In 1980, France officially supported Irak but also still continue to supply Iran equipments and
bombs.
The gulf war: (see MCQ papers)
During the night of August 1st to 2nd, 1990, two years after the end of a very costly war against
Iran, the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein gives its army the order to invade Kuwait , small oil rich
country with a strategic position in the Persian Gulf. Kuwait is the beneficiary of rights inherited
from the Ottoman period and shows complacency towards the US and Israel. In the following days,
this annexion is condemned by the United Nations, which under the US leadership, sets a
mobilisation and the convoy of international troops in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf. On January 17,
1991, an air Operation “Desert Storm” is triggered, followed by land offensive on February 24,
constraining Saddam Hussein to accept a cease fire as soon as on the 28th. Kuwait recovers its
independence, but regional geopolitics is dramatically changed.
Lebanon and France
Lebanese confessionalism: principle and weakness
Lebanon had a confessionalism political system which represents some principles and weaknesses.
This government has been formed on the population senses .
1970 marked a turning point for Lebanon: Palestinian issue.
The presence of Palestinian in Lebanon caused some problems because the conflicts btw Israel and
Palestine was exported to Lebanon. This causes a sense of resentment and insecurity in the country
that finally led to a civil war in 1975.
This war between Phalangists militias and Palestinians and in June 1976 Syrian troops tried to
restore peace and to put order in the country.
In 1978 Israel invaded to Lebanon.
In 1982 Israel launched another operation and the prime minister of Israel has been assassinated and
Israeli’s troops occupied Beirut where the phalangists militias were fighting with the Palestinian.
(French Journalist kidnapping by the esbola (?), the reason was the reaction from Iran to the
commercial dispute Eurodif.)
The new war in Lebanon: a new shift in horror. The assassination of the business Rafic Hariri in
Lebanon on February 14th brought Lebanon back to the forefront in the Middle East stage and
escalating tensions and resentments between communities – Syrian troops withdrawal in April
2005.
III. The limits of the French Middle East policy …
A. The controversy of the French Middle East policy.
reimburse them. This commercial dispute lasted until the late 80s in 1988. This caused also the
Paris bombardments attacked by Iran and the hostage crisis in Lebanon.
FRENCH POLICY TOWARDS IRAK
IRAK WAS ON OF THE best middle estern country partner with France. The begin of the relations
back to 1962.
Hussain and Pompidou: iraki oil was a key factor of the relationship, France energetic strategy was
to diversify its oil supply (at the beg of the oil crisis)
Valery with Hussain: this cooperation would have been in the nuclear and the uranium as Iran in
1974. In 1980 France delivered two nuclear centrals to Irak,
Irak was extremely important to France during the France Arab-policy.
In fact, before the Irak war, there were based 55 French companies Irak ,with the presence of
10’000 French technician working there. Moreover, Irak was the first commercial partner of France
and the second most important oil supplier to France. The armaments deals with Irak was on
French aircrafts.
Iran-irak war: (see MCQ papers)
In 1980, France officially supported Irak but also still continue to supply Iran equipments and
bombs.
The gulf war: (see MCQ papers)
During the night of August 1st to 2nd, 1990, two years after the end of a very costly war against
Iran, the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein gives its army the order to invade Kuwait , small oil rich
country with a strategic position in the Persian Gulf. Kuwait is the beneficiary of rights inherited
from the Ottoman period and shows complacency towards the US and Israel. In the following days,
this annexion is condemned by the United Nations, which under the US leadership, sets a
mobilisation and the convoy of international troops in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf. On January 17,
1991, an air Operation “Desert Storm” is triggered, followed by land offensive on February 24,
constraining Saddam Hussein to accept a cease fire as soon as on the 28th. Kuwait recovers its
independence, but regional geopolitics is dramatically changed.
Lebanon and France
Lebanese confessionalism: principle and weakness
Lebanon had a confessionalism political system which represents some principles and weaknesses.
This government has been formed on the population senses .
1970 marked a turning point for Lebanon: Palestinian issue.
The presence of Palestinian in Lebanon caused some problems because the conflicts btw Israel and
Palestine was exported to Lebanon. This causes a sense of resentment and insecurity in the country
that finally led to a civil war in 1975.
This war between Phalangists militias and Palestinians and in June 1976 Syrian troops tried to
restore peace and to put order in the country.
In 1978 Israel invaded to Lebanon.
In 1982 Israel launched another operation and the prime minister of Israel has been assassinated and
Israeli’s troops occupied Beirut where the phalangists militias were fighting with the Palestinian.
(French Journalist kidnapping by the esbola (?), the reason was the reaction from Iran to the
commercial dispute Eurodif.)
The new war in Lebanon: a new shift in horror. The assassination of the business Rafic Hariri in
Lebanon on February 14th brought Lebanon back to the forefront in the Middle East stage and
escalating tensions and resentments between communities – Syrian troops withdrawal in April
2005.
III. The limits of the French Middle East policy …
A. The controversy of the French Middle East policy.
Close to the Arab countries, France does not succeed to prevail as a structuring player in the region,
not even to guarantee the loyalty of its friendship in the Mediterranean. In 2004 France’s Law No.
2004-228 of 15 March (the Act), prohibits students in public primary schools, secondary schools,
and lycées from wearing symbols and clothing manifesting a religious affiliation. French schools
implementing the Act have expelled students who manifest their religion by wearing articles of faith
to school. This was considered discrimination to the Middle East community in France.
In power from 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy wanted a rupture, both marked by a rapprochement with
Israel, considered necessary to weight on the regional conflicts, and a resurgence in the dialogue
with Damascus, considered essential to get out of the Lebanese impasse.
Even though the controversies, France was still the #1 arms, rocket, bomb and missiles seller of
Libya, and Libya held the most important oil reserve in Africa in 2010.
B. Union for the Mediterranean: When France wanted to do geopolitics …
Founded in 2008, The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) is an intergovernmental institution
bringing together 43 countries whom 28 are EU members. Based on a co-presidency parity between
the two Mediterranean coasts, southern and northern, the UfM’s objective is to promote dialogue
and cooperation in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The headquarters are in Barcelona.
C. The time of business scandals… Karachi scandal
The Karachi affair, otherwise known as Agosta Submarine scandal, was a major military scandal
that took place in the second administration of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, involving the
presidencies of François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac in 1992–97.
The scandal involved the payment of massive commissions and kickbacks between France and
Pakistan over the negotiations to acquire Agosta 90B-class submarines. The submarines utilized the
emerging Air-independent propulsion proprietary designs, which Pakistan was eager to acquire over
the nuclear submarines.
In 1992, the Benazir administration began its negotiation with French President François Mitterrand
over the procurement of expensive and complex Agosta 90Bravo submarine designs, eventually
signing the contract in 1994 for a sum equivalent to €826 million ($996m). Negotiations and the
decision-making for defense procurement with France was extremely controversial, with the United
Kingdom later entering in the competition by offering its four Upholder-class submarines, which
were being decommissioned from the military service with the Royal Navy.
The Pakistan Navy NHQ wanted to procure the four British-manufactured diesel-electric Upholder-
class submarines, which were already available and at a lesser cost than the Agostas, which were
still in the prototype phase, and would have taken years to manufacture and deliver. Nonetheless,
the Benazir administration selected the Agosta, taking advantage of the lucrative financial credits
provided by France.
In the morning of 8 May 2002, a man driving an explosive-laden Honda Civic parallel to the
Daewoo city bus outside the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi, detonated his car with the moving bus,
ripping the bus apart and severely damaging the hotel. In this attack, it was reported that eleven of
the French navy's engineers and two Pakistani engineers were killed while 40 others were injured in
this attack. The French engineers were working with their Pakistani counterparts to assemble the
machined parts of the Agosta 90Bravo submarines in Naval Dockyard in Karachi. Initial blames
were put on the Indian branch of al-Qaeda, and later Pakistani crime-scene investigators linked it
with HuM operatives who later confessed that the attacks were supposed to target the Americans
but mistakenly attacked the French nationals.
IV. France facing the 2010’s waves.
A. The impact of the Arab springs from 2011
The Arab Spring was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions that
spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in response to oppressive regimes
and a low standard of living, starting with protests in Tunisia. From Tunisia, the protests then
spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain, where either the ruler was
deposed (Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Muammar Gaddafi, Hosni Mubarak, and Ali Abdullah Saleh) or
not even to guarantee the loyalty of its friendship in the Mediterranean. In 2004 France’s Law No.
2004-228 of 15 March (the Act), prohibits students in public primary schools, secondary schools,
and lycées from wearing symbols and clothing manifesting a religious affiliation. French schools
implementing the Act have expelled students who manifest their religion by wearing articles of faith
to school. This was considered discrimination to the Middle East community in France.
In power from 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy wanted a rupture, both marked by a rapprochement with
Israel, considered necessary to weight on the regional conflicts, and a resurgence in the dialogue
with Damascus, considered essential to get out of the Lebanese impasse.
Even though the controversies, France was still the #1 arms, rocket, bomb and missiles seller of
Libya, and Libya held the most important oil reserve in Africa in 2010.
B. Union for the Mediterranean: When France wanted to do geopolitics …
Founded in 2008, The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) is an intergovernmental institution
bringing together 43 countries whom 28 are EU members. Based on a co-presidency parity between
the two Mediterranean coasts, southern and northern, the UfM’s objective is to promote dialogue
and cooperation in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The headquarters are in Barcelona.
C. The time of business scandals… Karachi scandal
The Karachi affair, otherwise known as Agosta Submarine scandal, was a major military scandal
that took place in the second administration of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, involving the
presidencies of François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac in 1992–97.
The scandal involved the payment of massive commissions and kickbacks between France and
Pakistan over the negotiations to acquire Agosta 90B-class submarines. The submarines utilized the
emerging Air-independent propulsion proprietary designs, which Pakistan was eager to acquire over
the nuclear submarines.
In 1992, the Benazir administration began its negotiation with French President François Mitterrand
over the procurement of expensive and complex Agosta 90Bravo submarine designs, eventually
signing the contract in 1994 for a sum equivalent to €826 million ($996m). Negotiations and the
decision-making for defense procurement with France was extremely controversial, with the United
Kingdom later entering in the competition by offering its four Upholder-class submarines, which
were being decommissioned from the military service with the Royal Navy.
The Pakistan Navy NHQ wanted to procure the four British-manufactured diesel-electric Upholder-
class submarines, which were already available and at a lesser cost than the Agostas, which were
still in the prototype phase, and would have taken years to manufacture and deliver. Nonetheless,
the Benazir administration selected the Agosta, taking advantage of the lucrative financial credits
provided by France.
In the morning of 8 May 2002, a man driving an explosive-laden Honda Civic parallel to the
Daewoo city bus outside the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi, detonated his car with the moving bus,
ripping the bus apart and severely damaging the hotel. In this attack, it was reported that eleven of
the French navy's engineers and two Pakistani engineers were killed while 40 others were injured in
this attack. The French engineers were working with their Pakistani counterparts to assemble the
machined parts of the Agosta 90Bravo submarines in Naval Dockyard in Karachi. Initial blames
were put on the Indian branch of al-Qaeda, and later Pakistani crime-scene investigators linked it
with HuM operatives who later confessed that the attacks were supposed to target the Americans
but mistakenly attacked the French nationals.
IV. France facing the 2010’s waves.
A. The impact of the Arab springs from 2011
The Arab Spring was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions that
spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in response to oppressive regimes
and a low standard of living, starting with protests in Tunisia. From Tunisia, the protests then
spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain, where either the ruler was
deposed (Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Muammar Gaddafi, Hosni Mubarak, and Ali Abdullah Saleh) or
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major uprisings and social violence occurred including riots, civil wars, or insurgencies. Sustained
street demonstrations took place in Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Iranian Khuzestan, Lebanon, Jordan,
Kuwait, Oman, and Sudan.
The Greater Middle East has traditionally played a major role in French foreign policy. Following
WWI, the 3rd French Republic acquired Syria and Lebanon which created a foundation for
political, economic and cultural ties between France and the Arab world. In the post-Cold War era,
French diplomatic activity in the region was split into several main priorities which gravitated
around being a solid mediator between Israel and the Arabs for the construction of a durable peace
– via treaty – while supporting Arab and French regional interests.
France’s relations today with its former colonies depend on the conditions under which the
decolonization took place. For example, the still have conflictual relations with Algeria, while
Morocco and Tunisia became two close allies to France.
B. « Arab countries, France’ best friend and its armament industry? »
In terms of defense and geostrategy, the Arab policy of France is relaunched since the early 2000’s.
Partnership between France and the regional States are strengthened, particularly in armament. The
Middle East is one of the world’s regions where governments dedicate an important part of GDP to
defense, a tendency strengthened by the Arab revolts in 2011 which increased insecurity. Since the
attacks on the French soil, France found itself in a « convergence of geopolitical interests beyond
traditional diplomatic postures » with the Gulf countries. Indeed, the cooperation in the fight against
terrorism is central today in these bilateral relations.
Chammal Operation
Launched on September 19, 2014, the Chammal operation is the name given to the French part to
the combined operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) gathering more than 70 nations. To the Iraqi
government request and in coordination with France allies in the region, it aims to provide military
support to local forces engaged in the fight against Daech (Islamic State or ISIS) on their territory.
C. The French cultural « soft power »
In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to attract and co-opt,
rather than coerce (contrast hard power). In other words, soft power involves shaping the
preferences of others through appeal and attraction. A defining feature of soft power is that it is
non-coercive; the currency of soft power includes culture, political values, and foreign policies.
France has long exerted a great amount of soft power. The country and its culture have for centuries
been admired in many parts of the world; so much so that Thomas Jefferson is famously quoted as
saying "Every man has two countries, his own and France". In 2017, France had the third largest
diplomatic network in the world.
France was a focal point of the Age of Enlightenment; its attachment to the ideals of liberty,
equality, tolerance and reason was notably embodied in the writing and publishing of the
Encyclopédie. The French Revolution was one of the most significant events in European and world
history. France has since then been instrumental in spreading Republican ideals. The Napoleonic
Code, which influenced much of the rest of Europe and beyond, is regarded as one of the most
important law documents of the modern era.9
RUSSIA
Since 2000 Putin is the president of this new Russian federation (2000-2008 and then 2012-now).
His policy changed in the years (2000, when he was elected, 2014 annexation of Crimea, and 2020).
He changed policy due to the reappearance of threats that can be explained by the history of Russia.
Gorbatchev was the general secretary and resigned from his job of the communist party on
December 1991.
He stayed in power for 6 years and during his tenure he tried to transform, reforming the soviet
union. When he got the power, he realized the catastrophic economic situation of soviet union
(Afghan war was ongoing and many other problems where presents) he said “we can’t live like that
anymore”. He introduce reforms. The first reform called “Perestrojka” which means transformation.
street demonstrations took place in Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Iranian Khuzestan, Lebanon, Jordan,
Kuwait, Oman, and Sudan.
The Greater Middle East has traditionally played a major role in French foreign policy. Following
WWI, the 3rd French Republic acquired Syria and Lebanon which created a foundation for
political, economic and cultural ties between France and the Arab world. In the post-Cold War era,
French diplomatic activity in the region was split into several main priorities which gravitated
around being a solid mediator between Israel and the Arabs for the construction of a durable peace
– via treaty – while supporting Arab and French regional interests.
France’s relations today with its former colonies depend on the conditions under which the
decolonization took place. For example, the still have conflictual relations with Algeria, while
Morocco and Tunisia became two close allies to France.
B. « Arab countries, France’ best friend and its armament industry? »
In terms of defense and geostrategy, the Arab policy of France is relaunched since the early 2000’s.
Partnership between France and the regional States are strengthened, particularly in armament. The
Middle East is one of the world’s regions where governments dedicate an important part of GDP to
defense, a tendency strengthened by the Arab revolts in 2011 which increased insecurity. Since the
attacks on the French soil, France found itself in a « convergence of geopolitical interests beyond
traditional diplomatic postures » with the Gulf countries. Indeed, the cooperation in the fight against
terrorism is central today in these bilateral relations.
Chammal Operation
Launched on September 19, 2014, the Chammal operation is the name given to the French part to
the combined operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) gathering more than 70 nations. To the Iraqi
government request and in coordination with France allies in the region, it aims to provide military
support to local forces engaged in the fight against Daech (Islamic State or ISIS) on their territory.
C. The French cultural « soft power »
In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to attract and co-opt,
rather than coerce (contrast hard power). In other words, soft power involves shaping the
preferences of others through appeal and attraction. A defining feature of soft power is that it is
non-coercive; the currency of soft power includes culture, political values, and foreign policies.
France has long exerted a great amount of soft power. The country and its culture have for centuries
been admired in many parts of the world; so much so that Thomas Jefferson is famously quoted as
saying "Every man has two countries, his own and France". In 2017, France had the third largest
diplomatic network in the world.
France was a focal point of the Age of Enlightenment; its attachment to the ideals of liberty,
equality, tolerance and reason was notably embodied in the writing and publishing of the
Encyclopédie. The French Revolution was one of the most significant events in European and world
history. France has since then been instrumental in spreading Republican ideals. The Napoleonic
Code, which influenced much of the rest of Europe and beyond, is regarded as one of the most
important law documents of the modern era.9
RUSSIA
Since 2000 Putin is the president of this new Russian federation (2000-2008 and then 2012-now).
His policy changed in the years (2000, when he was elected, 2014 annexation of Crimea, and 2020).
He changed policy due to the reappearance of threats that can be explained by the history of Russia.
Gorbatchev was the general secretary and resigned from his job of the communist party on
December 1991.
He stayed in power for 6 years and during his tenure he tried to transform, reforming the soviet
union. When he got the power, he realized the catastrophic economic situation of soviet union
(Afghan war was ongoing and many other problems where presents) he said “we can’t live like that
anymore”. He introduce reforms. The first reform called “Perestrojka” which means transformation.
These are reforms in economy and society. For economy his goal was a middle way between a
domestic and a open economy.
From ’85 with the “Glasnot” reform that means transparency, soviet population could show their
opinion, ideas. They’ve been published books banned before. During this period, it’s been revealed
a secret deal between Molotov and Ribbentrop on the Baltic states. Signed between Stalin and the
Nazi Germany in 1939. This implied the occupation of Baltic state after WWII. In 1989 the Baltics
discovered that pact and they protests in mass. The first protest in the Soviet bloc. 2 months later
they proclaimed their independence and the union was starting to collapse.
These reforms made things change during these years, but not the politic situation, Communism
was still the only party allowed to govern. (they were instead allowed to criticized, they did that
with Stalin.)
These reforms (economy and society) have been made at the same time and it has been a mistake
according to China. China learnt from this mistake.
Gorbatchev was unaware of the nationalism in some part of the union. That was a Pandora box that
was open and such republics started to proclaim their independence in 1991. It started to let collapse
the union.
Military army of Russian Federation lost power and equipment, due to losing such territories.
1995 was a transition year in the economy and society. A new feeling of what should be the Russian
power after disintegration of Russian empire. They lost their economy and securities (pensions,
job…) , inflation. It created a sense of anger in the population against the government, Gorbatchev
was hated by everyone, he is seen as the one who dislocated the soviet union.
The following leader was Yeltsin and in 1999, with Chechen first war, that would wake up the
nationalist feeling and started this independence war. Russia won against them. The victory over the
Chechen made come very popular Putin who was elected in 2000.
Warsaw Pact had been established in 1955 , responding to the creation of NATO.
The Warsaw pact has been dissolved after the collapse of soviet union, while NATO still exists. It
was a big threat. Part of Europe started to join NATO and European Union, a big threat for Russia.
Media in Russia was led by the state, so not independent, so that government was able to show what
they wanted.
In January 2016, 65 % of Russians say they feel a military menace from other states
The « color revolutions » in the post-soviet space and in the Middle East which led to regime fall –
and perceived by the Russian elites as the Occident instigation – are Kremlin’s real obsession.
Orange revolution in Ukraine mass protest against the corruption and sustaining the candidate pro-
European instead of pro-Russia. Ukraine had active NGO financed by US (started from ‘90) , in
order to respect democracy and avoid fake news. Viktor Ioutchtenko was pro-European, his ideas
was to join the European union with an open market, following western Europe. The Russian
poisoned him during his campaign as he was a threat for them.
There is the still alive memory of the fall of the USSR and the years of transition that followed. «
Great geopolitical catastrophe» according to Vladimir Putin, the disintegration of the USSR resulted
in the loss of economic and social stability, of many free public services, but also of territories, rank
and international influence.
The reasons to the fall of the USSR had never been really understood and accepted by Russians.
More than 25 years later, 56 % of Russians still regret the former system, 51 % think it could have
been avoided and 52 % think it has been a plot from national elites or Occident.
What are the Russian power factors?
1. Diplomatic power. Russia is one of the permanent members for veto rights with China
France UK, US. USRR and consequently Russia is the country who used the veto right the
most (The right of veto is the right enjoyed by the UN Security Council today. It is
tantamount to blocking and opposing any decision within the Council and can be made by
the five permanent members, the five winning states of the Second World War). The last
time they used the veto right was in 2019.
domestic and a open economy.
From ’85 with the “Glasnot” reform that means transparency, soviet population could show their
opinion, ideas. They’ve been published books banned before. During this period, it’s been revealed
a secret deal between Molotov and Ribbentrop on the Baltic states. Signed between Stalin and the
Nazi Germany in 1939. This implied the occupation of Baltic state after WWII. In 1989 the Baltics
discovered that pact and they protests in mass. The first protest in the Soviet bloc. 2 months later
they proclaimed their independence and the union was starting to collapse.
These reforms made things change during these years, but not the politic situation, Communism
was still the only party allowed to govern. (they were instead allowed to criticized, they did that
with Stalin.)
These reforms (economy and society) have been made at the same time and it has been a mistake
according to China. China learnt from this mistake.
Gorbatchev was unaware of the nationalism in some part of the union. That was a Pandora box that
was open and such republics started to proclaim their independence in 1991. It started to let collapse
the union.
Military army of Russian Federation lost power and equipment, due to losing such territories.
1995 was a transition year in the economy and society. A new feeling of what should be the Russian
power after disintegration of Russian empire. They lost their economy and securities (pensions,
job…) , inflation. It created a sense of anger in the population against the government, Gorbatchev
was hated by everyone, he is seen as the one who dislocated the soviet union.
The following leader was Yeltsin and in 1999, with Chechen first war, that would wake up the
nationalist feeling and started this independence war. Russia won against them. The victory over the
Chechen made come very popular Putin who was elected in 2000.
Warsaw Pact had been established in 1955 , responding to the creation of NATO.
The Warsaw pact has been dissolved after the collapse of soviet union, while NATO still exists. It
was a big threat. Part of Europe started to join NATO and European Union, a big threat for Russia.
Media in Russia was led by the state, so not independent, so that government was able to show what
they wanted.
In January 2016, 65 % of Russians say they feel a military menace from other states
The « color revolutions » in the post-soviet space and in the Middle East which led to regime fall –
and perceived by the Russian elites as the Occident instigation – are Kremlin’s real obsession.
Orange revolution in Ukraine mass protest against the corruption and sustaining the candidate pro-
European instead of pro-Russia. Ukraine had active NGO financed by US (started from ‘90) , in
order to respect democracy and avoid fake news. Viktor Ioutchtenko was pro-European, his ideas
was to join the European union with an open market, following western Europe. The Russian
poisoned him during his campaign as he was a threat for them.
There is the still alive memory of the fall of the USSR and the years of transition that followed. «
Great geopolitical catastrophe» according to Vladimir Putin, the disintegration of the USSR resulted
in the loss of economic and social stability, of many free public services, but also of territories, rank
and international influence.
The reasons to the fall of the USSR had never been really understood and accepted by Russians.
More than 25 years later, 56 % of Russians still regret the former system, 51 % think it could have
been avoided and 52 % think it has been a plot from national elites or Occident.
What are the Russian power factors?
1. Diplomatic power. Russia is one of the permanent members for veto rights with China
France UK, US. USRR and consequently Russia is the country who used the veto right the
most (The right of veto is the right enjoyed by the UN Security Council today. It is
tantamount to blocking and opposing any decision within the Council and can be made by
the five permanent members, the five winning states of the Second World War). The last
time they used the veto right was in 2019.
2. Nuclear power: Russia is part of the group of the nuclear country to produce energy. Oil
and Gas company are State companies. Consequently, the investments result in the north of
Russia are positive, developing maritime route from Siberia a project that China joined in
the last years, with heavy investments, that’s a strategic initiative for Russia.
The Russian army, factor and vector of power.
The repartition of the military expenses in 2018. US spent the most, 2nd China, Russia Army and
French Army spend the same on military expenses. What happened to the Russian Army after the
collapse URSS? They have no money for military equipment. The soldiers didn’t receive wages.
Military bases were abandoned. In the 2012 Putin started to modernize the army. Nowadays, the
army is particularly useful in the domestic policy with Putin. His goal was to transform the army
and he invested quite a lot (14 % of the state budget), so in the next years Russia won’t spend too
much on Army as he already invested a lot. This investment was successful in Syria, Crimea.
Syria is a strategic place for Russia as it’s close to the Mediterranean sea. The military army in 2015
changed the geopolitics of Russia.
Syrian conflict from the Arab spring in 2011 to a civil war that became an international conflict
with the support of many other nations (Russia Turkey Iran).
Putin and El-Assar (who is still on power - Syria) have a great relationship. Putin want him to be in
power forever (if he could). Syria and Russia have agreements for oil, gas.
Turkey participated in the battle for Syria and became a Russian enemy sharing the same interests
(Syria). Turkish soldiers have been killed by Russians in the Idlib area. The UN Security Council
had to do an emergency meeting. Turkey and Russia depend on themselves on different fields:
economy, energy, etc.
Three tools are advantaged by the Kremlin. First, the limited use
of military force: in Syria, air strikes and installation of antimissiles system S-400 have
reversed the situation and enabled Russia to derive diplomatic and political benefits (it was not
authorize by NATO). This S400 change the geopolitics in Russia, this missile can reach other
countries. Russia has a strategic port in Crimea and Syria. The last one they realized is a military
port in Sudan. Russian is the second in the world exporting weapons.
Russia is the 2nd exported in the world in terms of arms and weapons.
During the cold war, the zones of the Eastern part of Europe, Yugoslavia (which was a communist
state and was not part of the Warsaw pact) and Cuba were allies.
The European allies in particular had been the core of the military deployment of the Soviet Union.
Today after the cold war a shift occurred; in particular a shift there has been from the 1990s, since
this has been te period in which there was a feeling of loss of status, of international influence and a
feeling of loss of power, that frustrated the Russian authorities.
One particularly important character in this context is Evgueni Primakov, who was the minister of
foreign affairs in the mid 1990s and he advocated a multiple world by counterbalancing the
American growing influence on the international stage. This tendency had been formulated even by
Vladimir Putin in 2007, during the speech at the « Security conference » in Berlin.
In 2007 Putin pointed (sued) the unipolarity of the USA ; this unipolarity was perceived as so by the
Russian Federation. Putin so, as like as Primakov thought that USA had too much influence on the
international stage and also on the economic matter. In order to counterbalance the American
influence, thought that the alternative pole of power could be Eurasia, so that they forged a
relationship with China, Imndia and Japan.
In 1996, Eltsin (the Russian president of that time) announced an agreement of a strategic
partnership with China, and this relationship established the import in China of Russian raw
materials and military equipment.
Indeed, today we can find that there is no more the unipolarity of USA thanks to the strategy of
Russia and to the rise of China, so that there is a multipolarity nowadays even in the economic field.
Moscow and the Russian federation see theirselves as the center of the Eurasian geopolitical vision
and Gas company are State companies. Consequently, the investments result in the north of
Russia are positive, developing maritime route from Siberia a project that China joined in
the last years, with heavy investments, that’s a strategic initiative for Russia.
The Russian army, factor and vector of power.
The repartition of the military expenses in 2018. US spent the most, 2nd China, Russia Army and
French Army spend the same on military expenses. What happened to the Russian Army after the
collapse URSS? They have no money for military equipment. The soldiers didn’t receive wages.
Military bases were abandoned. In the 2012 Putin started to modernize the army. Nowadays, the
army is particularly useful in the domestic policy with Putin. His goal was to transform the army
and he invested quite a lot (14 % of the state budget), so in the next years Russia won’t spend too
much on Army as he already invested a lot. This investment was successful in Syria, Crimea.
Syria is a strategic place for Russia as it’s close to the Mediterranean sea. The military army in 2015
changed the geopolitics of Russia.
Syrian conflict from the Arab spring in 2011 to a civil war that became an international conflict
with the support of many other nations (Russia Turkey Iran).
Putin and El-Assar (who is still on power - Syria) have a great relationship. Putin want him to be in
power forever (if he could). Syria and Russia have agreements for oil, gas.
Turkey participated in the battle for Syria and became a Russian enemy sharing the same interests
(Syria). Turkish soldiers have been killed by Russians in the Idlib area. The UN Security Council
had to do an emergency meeting. Turkey and Russia depend on themselves on different fields:
economy, energy, etc.
Three tools are advantaged by the Kremlin. First, the limited use
of military force: in Syria, air strikes and installation of antimissiles system S-400 have
reversed the situation and enabled Russia to derive diplomatic and political benefits (it was not
authorize by NATO). This S400 change the geopolitics in Russia, this missile can reach other
countries. Russia has a strategic port in Crimea and Syria. The last one they realized is a military
port in Sudan. Russian is the second in the world exporting weapons.
Russia is the 2nd exported in the world in terms of arms and weapons.
During the cold war, the zones of the Eastern part of Europe, Yugoslavia (which was a communist
state and was not part of the Warsaw pact) and Cuba were allies.
The European allies in particular had been the core of the military deployment of the Soviet Union.
Today after the cold war a shift occurred; in particular a shift there has been from the 1990s, since
this has been te period in which there was a feeling of loss of status, of international influence and a
feeling of loss of power, that frustrated the Russian authorities.
One particularly important character in this context is Evgueni Primakov, who was the minister of
foreign affairs in the mid 1990s and he advocated a multiple world by counterbalancing the
American growing influence on the international stage. This tendency had been formulated even by
Vladimir Putin in 2007, during the speech at the « Security conference » in Berlin.
In 2007 Putin pointed (sued) the unipolarity of the USA ; this unipolarity was perceived as so by the
Russian Federation. Putin so, as like as Primakov thought that USA had too much influence on the
international stage and also on the economic matter. In order to counterbalance the American
influence, thought that the alternative pole of power could be Eurasia, so that they forged a
relationship with China, Imndia and Japan.
In 1996, Eltsin (the Russian president of that time) announced an agreement of a strategic
partnership with China, and this relationship established the import in China of Russian raw
materials and military equipment.
Indeed, today we can find that there is no more the unipolarity of USA thanks to the strategy of
Russia and to the rise of China, so that there is a multipolarity nowadays even in the economic field.
Moscow and the Russian federation see theirselves as the center of the Eurasian geopolitical vision
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and of this multipolar world, so that can cause some problems with their partners, since a multipolar
world implied to build a strong network with other regions and other countries, so that this network
should be done also in the Middle-East or in South-America in order to counterbalance USA.
So this process started in the mid 1990s and was strengthened by Putin presidency.
Indeed in this multipolar world tendency, Middle-East and Asia have a pivotal role, so that this has
been a return for the Soviet Union since of its interest fro the Middle East and for the South Asia
during the cold war.
During the 1990’s and from 2007 so many strategic relationships have been done by Russia, as like
as with Iran, which is a very strategic area between Asia and the African continent. Russia in
particular started this relationship with Iran in the period in the same period in ehich the relationship
between USA and Turkey had been intensified.
In the mid 1990’s however this plan of Russia didn’t function very well, since the economy was still
not having many positive results, since during this period of this transiction, even called « shock
Terapy », during which Russia had to open the market and this transiction had been series of
difficulties and issues that didn’t satidfy the expectancies of Russia.
Nowadays the influence of Russia in « near abroad » (given by : Kazakhistan, Turkmenistan,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan) represent the ex Soviet république and
still have a cultural language and cutlural heritage from Russia and Moscow in particular. Most of
the leaders in these new independent république were indeed in power during the old Soviet system,
so that even these countries are part o the multipolar vision of Russian federation.
The relationship with these countries of Central Asia has been developed through the
collabeorations and cooperations formed by Russia since the 1990’s : the first one is the
« Collective Security Treaty organisation » (CSTO) that was created in 1992 and whose intention
was to collaborate on the security. All these treaties have been signed with this Soviet république in
Central Asia.
Another cooperation instead is the « Shangai cooperation organization », which is an organization
of which China is part of, which includes a collaboration on the economic and security field ; it has
been created in 2001 and has been enlarged in 2017.
We have even the « BRICS », which is an economic organization between Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa.
Since Russia is part of all these organizations, there could be some issues between the members of
all these organizations, given that Russia wants to be the dominant country and sometimes imposes
pressures over its partners.
Russia has like a dominance over a colonial empire so, and given that very often the other partners
perceived this fact under a bad light, then Russia tried and is still now trying to adapt and to
emphasize more dialogue and cooperation between all the parts of the organization and gain the
trust of its partners.
Russia indeed pushed even Iran to join the Shangai cooperation organization, Iran said yes, but now
it still didn’t enter ; however nowadays Iran has several members inside the Shangai organization,
even if it is not formally a member of it.
In particular Serguey Lavrov, who is the foreign affair minister, represented all those countries as
the main allies of Russia until today. Indeed China is the best partner of the Russian federation,
since China signed the agreement with Russia already in the mid 1990’s and today represents the
14% of Russian international trade.
China is so important as an alliance for the Russian Federation since China is going to be the first
economic power in the next few years. China invested even very much in the Russian project of the
« northen maritime road » in Siberia, while Russia is actually supporting the « one belt one
road » initiative led by China (it is a project that wants to emphasize globalization and
interconnections between Europe and Asia) and that is big matter in economic terms for USA.
Other partners that illustrated the tendency of multipolar world in terms of economy led by Russia
are : Bachar el-Assad (Syria) to reconstruct Syria and get in exchange Syrian oil, Hassan Rohani
world implied to build a strong network with other regions and other countries, so that this network
should be done also in the Middle-East or in South-America in order to counterbalance USA.
So this process started in the mid 1990s and was strengthened by Putin presidency.
Indeed in this multipolar world tendency, Middle-East and Asia have a pivotal role, so that this has
been a return for the Soviet Union since of its interest fro the Middle East and for the South Asia
during the cold war.
During the 1990’s and from 2007 so many strategic relationships have been done by Russia, as like
as with Iran, which is a very strategic area between Asia and the African continent. Russia in
particular started this relationship with Iran in the period in the same period in ehich the relationship
between USA and Turkey had been intensified.
In the mid 1990’s however this plan of Russia didn’t function very well, since the economy was still
not having many positive results, since during this period of this transiction, even called « shock
Terapy », during which Russia had to open the market and this transiction had been series of
difficulties and issues that didn’t satidfy the expectancies of Russia.
Nowadays the influence of Russia in « near abroad » (given by : Kazakhistan, Turkmenistan,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan) represent the ex Soviet république and
still have a cultural language and cutlural heritage from Russia and Moscow in particular. Most of
the leaders in these new independent république were indeed in power during the old Soviet system,
so that even these countries are part o the multipolar vision of Russian federation.
The relationship with these countries of Central Asia has been developed through the
collabeorations and cooperations formed by Russia since the 1990’s : the first one is the
« Collective Security Treaty organisation » (CSTO) that was created in 1992 and whose intention
was to collaborate on the security. All these treaties have been signed with this Soviet république in
Central Asia.
Another cooperation instead is the « Shangai cooperation organization », which is an organization
of which China is part of, which includes a collaboration on the economic and security field ; it has
been created in 2001 and has been enlarged in 2017.
We have even the « BRICS », which is an economic organization between Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa.
Since Russia is part of all these organizations, there could be some issues between the members of
all these organizations, given that Russia wants to be the dominant country and sometimes imposes
pressures over its partners.
Russia has like a dominance over a colonial empire so, and given that very often the other partners
perceived this fact under a bad light, then Russia tried and is still now trying to adapt and to
emphasize more dialogue and cooperation between all the parts of the organization and gain the
trust of its partners.
Russia indeed pushed even Iran to join the Shangai cooperation organization, Iran said yes, but now
it still didn’t enter ; however nowadays Iran has several members inside the Shangai organization,
even if it is not formally a member of it.
In particular Serguey Lavrov, who is the foreign affair minister, represented all those countries as
the main allies of Russia until today. Indeed China is the best partner of the Russian federation,
since China signed the agreement with Russia already in the mid 1990’s and today represents the
14% of Russian international trade.
China is so important as an alliance for the Russian Federation since China is going to be the first
economic power in the next few years. China invested even very much in the Russian project of the
« northen maritime road » in Siberia, while Russia is actually supporting the « one belt one
road » initiative led by China (it is a project that wants to emphasize globalization and
interconnections between Europe and Asia) and that is big matter in economic terms for USA.
Other partners that illustrated the tendency of multipolar world in terms of economy led by Russia
are : Bachar el-Assad (Syria) to reconstruct Syria and get in exchange Syrian oil, Hassan Rohani
(Iran president), Erdogan (Turkish president) both on both economic and diplomatic (peace
matter).
The partnership (multipolarity) with all these countries does not only concern a diplomatic,
economic and military aspect but even a counterbalncing over the United Nations that are
dominated by the Western countries.
The one belt one road in particular is literally changing the geopolitical asset of all the world, since
the EU and China are the two main partners of Russia, in particular for what regards the economic
aspect, even if the relationship with China is « easier » with respect to the partnership with the EU.
This Eurasia project so has become indeed an object of study of American researchers, in order to
understand how much could it be influent in the world and how much could it be dangerous for
USA economy.
Regarding USA instead, Russia federation preferred and had gopd relationships nwith Trump since
Trump is a business-man and he said that he would relieve the tension accumulated with Russia
since the Crimea annection. However at the end Trump has not been of relevant help for Russia,
since Russia was not considered as one of the first priorities by USA.
During the USA presidential election of 2016 however was actuated a cyber attack, but this kind of
Hybrid war (includes propaganda, information war, diffusion of fake news and or other methods of
influence which cause rivals to question and to be enable to deny its own implication and make
response difficult, and finally to start a cyber war) started in 2007 and reached its peak in 2016,
regarding mainly cyber attacks and information war.
This kind of war is very effective since a country can mask itself under another country, so it’s
difficult to understand, furthermore the virus APT28 designed and sent by Russian hackers during
the presidential election (Trump vs Clinton) is even a very low-cost « weapon » against USA, but
very effective at the same time. Referring to this event there is the « Russiagate », which is the
suspicion and accusation that Donald Trump or his campaign’s members were indeed linked with
Russian key people and have secretly met russians in order to offert them incriminating information
about Hilary Clinton. Trump’s members accusated are: Malaffort, Trump Jr and Kusher.
During this period the most important journals of USA received such information behing « Guccifer
2.0 ». In July 2016 is discovered that behind Guccifer there was Russia.
The summary of all this story is that maybe Trump has been elected thanks to Russia, since rumors
growing against Clinton were in favour Trump’s election, and he could have won in this way even
if hackers did not breach vorting machines or computers that tailed elections. This facts was
covered by many people being positive on social medias like Facebook or Twitter and Trump has
not been considered as Guilty, but Russia was pointed of the Russiagate. We can so conclude that
according to Mueller (FBI director) access to elections in fact of choosing many american states had
indeed occurred but some efforts to research american voting systems, processes and other elements
of voting had been observed, but the activity of this cyber warf rom Russia was directed at voting
machine companies. At the same time according to Mueller there has even been a great effort to
observe polling activity and its relationship to misinformation campaigns.
Nowadays we can state that the practice of cyber war is largely diffused, so Russia is not the only
one to operate with hackers versus other countries.
Russia however made cyber attacks even against Estonia in 2007, against Georgia in 2008 and
against Ukraine in 2014, so that in total Russia is accused for the conduct of 32 cyber attacks in the
world since 2007 and 30 cyber attacks since 2014 ; however such attacks are almost impossible to
discover because of the use of proxies, which mask the hackers.
The cyber strategy planned by Russia can be so divided into « Cyber attacks » and the « cyber
informational war ». The cyber informational war is given by a series of actions of political warfare
to influence the course of events. The tools used for these cyber informational war are trolls and
botnets mainly, and such tools have origins in the anti-Putin protests in 2011-2012. These tools can
be effective because they can cause political destabilization, confusion and discredit. Those active
measures siplay the great power of Russia.
matter).
The partnership (multipolarity) with all these countries does not only concern a diplomatic,
economic and military aspect but even a counterbalncing over the United Nations that are
dominated by the Western countries.
The one belt one road in particular is literally changing the geopolitical asset of all the world, since
the EU and China are the two main partners of Russia, in particular for what regards the economic
aspect, even if the relationship with China is « easier » with respect to the partnership with the EU.
This Eurasia project so has become indeed an object of study of American researchers, in order to
understand how much could it be influent in the world and how much could it be dangerous for
USA economy.
Regarding USA instead, Russia federation preferred and had gopd relationships nwith Trump since
Trump is a business-man and he said that he would relieve the tension accumulated with Russia
since the Crimea annection. However at the end Trump has not been of relevant help for Russia,
since Russia was not considered as one of the first priorities by USA.
During the USA presidential election of 2016 however was actuated a cyber attack, but this kind of
Hybrid war (includes propaganda, information war, diffusion of fake news and or other methods of
influence which cause rivals to question and to be enable to deny its own implication and make
response difficult, and finally to start a cyber war) started in 2007 and reached its peak in 2016,
regarding mainly cyber attacks and information war.
This kind of war is very effective since a country can mask itself under another country, so it’s
difficult to understand, furthermore the virus APT28 designed and sent by Russian hackers during
the presidential election (Trump vs Clinton) is even a very low-cost « weapon » against USA, but
very effective at the same time. Referring to this event there is the « Russiagate », which is the
suspicion and accusation that Donald Trump or his campaign’s members were indeed linked with
Russian key people and have secretly met russians in order to offert them incriminating information
about Hilary Clinton. Trump’s members accusated are: Malaffort, Trump Jr and Kusher.
During this period the most important journals of USA received such information behing « Guccifer
2.0 ». In July 2016 is discovered that behind Guccifer there was Russia.
The summary of all this story is that maybe Trump has been elected thanks to Russia, since rumors
growing against Clinton were in favour Trump’s election, and he could have won in this way even
if hackers did not breach vorting machines or computers that tailed elections. This facts was
covered by many people being positive on social medias like Facebook or Twitter and Trump has
not been considered as Guilty, but Russia was pointed of the Russiagate. We can so conclude that
according to Mueller (FBI director) access to elections in fact of choosing many american states had
indeed occurred but some efforts to research american voting systems, processes and other elements
of voting had been observed, but the activity of this cyber warf rom Russia was directed at voting
machine companies. At the same time according to Mueller there has even been a great effort to
observe polling activity and its relationship to misinformation campaigns.
Nowadays we can state that the practice of cyber war is largely diffused, so Russia is not the only
one to operate with hackers versus other countries.
Russia however made cyber attacks even against Estonia in 2007, against Georgia in 2008 and
against Ukraine in 2014, so that in total Russia is accused for the conduct of 32 cyber attacks in the
world since 2007 and 30 cyber attacks since 2014 ; however such attacks are almost impossible to
discover because of the use of proxies, which mask the hackers.
The cyber strategy planned by Russia can be so divided into « Cyber attacks » and the « cyber
informational war ». The cyber informational war is given by a series of actions of political warfare
to influence the course of events. The tools used for these cyber informational war are trolls and
botnets mainly, and such tools have origins in the anti-Putin protests in 2011-2012. These tools can
be effective because they can cause political destabilization, confusion and discredit. Those active
measures siplay the great power of Russia.
This is however a win/win situation for Russia and its target states, given that in this way Russia
can fill in the international media coverage, weigh on public debates abroad can diffuse a distorted
image of power regarding bot hits domestic and foreign policy, while for its“Target” states this is a
way for political actors to play advantage of their victimisation against their political rivals
(Trump/Clinton, Macron/Le Pen/Fillon, etc..).
To conclude, the policy of Putin saw the change of some amendments of the constitution in summer
2020, which have been approved by the greatest part of russian people, so that Putin can remain
president until 2036. At the same time, when Putin will leave the power, a protection is guaranteed
to him and to his family.
Nowadays the relationship of Russia with Syria is going well, the relationship with Erdogan in
Turkey is pragmatic since the presence of Turkish troup in Armenia is indeed a treath for Armenian
population and Vladimir Putin acceptance to have Turkish troups next to its « near abroad » area is
pragmatic in view of the alliance between Russia and Turkey.
can fill in the international media coverage, weigh on public debates abroad can diffuse a distorted
image of power regarding bot hits domestic and foreign policy, while for its“Target” states this is a
way for political actors to play advantage of their victimisation against their political rivals
(Trump/Clinton, Macron/Le Pen/Fillon, etc..).
To conclude, the policy of Putin saw the change of some amendments of the constitution in summer
2020, which have been approved by the greatest part of russian people, so that Putin can remain
president until 2036. At the same time, when Putin will leave the power, a protection is guaranteed
to him and to his family.
Nowadays the relationship of Russia with Syria is going well, the relationship with Erdogan in
Turkey is pragmatic since the presence of Turkish troup in Armenia is indeed a treath for Armenian
population and Vladimir Putin acceptance to have Turkish troups next to its « near abroad » area is
pragmatic in view of the alliance between Russia and Turkey.
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