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Running head: BUSINESS Business Name of the Student: Name of the University: Authors Note:
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1 BUSINESS Contents Answer 1:.........................................................................................................................................2 Part ii:...........................................................................................................................................3 Part iii:.........................................................................................................................................3 Answer 2:.........................................................................................................................................4 Part i:............................................................................................................................................4 Part ii:...........................................................................................................................................5 Part iii:.........................................................................................................................................5 Part iv:..........................................................................................................................................5 Answer 3:.........................................................................................................................................6 Answer 4:.........................................................................................................................................8 Answer 5:.......................................................................................................................................10 Answer 6:.......................................................................................................................................13 Answer 7:.......................................................................................................................................14 Answer 8:.......................................................................................................................................14 Answer 9:.......................................................................................................................................15 Answer 10:.....................................................................................................................................17 Answer 11:.....................................................................................................................................18 Answer 12:.....................................................................................................................................18 References:....................................................................................................................................20
2 BUSINESS
3 BUSINESS Answer 1: Market portfolio SecurityValue (₤' millions)Standard deviation% investment A405%20% B4010%20% C6020%30% D6030%30% Thus in order to achieve market portfolio the proportion of investment to be made in A, B, C and D class securities is 20%, 20% 30% and 30% respectively. Standard deviation of the portfolio is calculated below: SecurityValue (₤' millions ) Standard deviation % investment Proportionate standard deviation A405%20%1.00% B4010%20%2.00% C6020%30%6.00%
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4 BUSINESS D6030%30%9.00% Standard deviation of the portfolio18.00% Thus, standard deviation of the market portfolio would be 18% on the basis of proportionate standard deviation. Part ii: Capital market line equation is showed below: Where Rf = Risk free rate of return (5%). SD = Standard deviation (18%) Rm = Market rate of return (13%) Security market line equation is showed below: Re = Rf + Beta x (Rm – Rf) = 5% + 1.5 x (13% - 5%) = 5% + 20.25% - 7.5% Part iii:
5 BUSINESS The pension fund should be invested in equity shares that have market rate of return higher than 17%. In order to diversify the portfolio the investors should invest in the both high rate of return securities as well as low rate of return of securities. The proportion of total investment should be such that will entail the pension fund to earn 17% return and keep the risk as low as possible. None of the securities, i.e. A, B, C and D have expected rate of return even close to what the pension fund requires as expected rate of return thus, the pension fund should be invested in different securities which have higher rate of return of 17% or more. The standard deviation would be significantly higher than the average standard deviation of 18% as computed at the beginning of the document (Barberiset. al.2015). Answer 2: Part i: Equity portfoliosExpected rate of returnStandard deviation Coefficient of variation Premium for risk 18%5%0.63160.0% 210%6%0.60166.7% 315%8%0.53187.5% 420%13%0.65153.8% 525%18%0.72138.9%
6 BUSINESS As can be seen that equity portfolio 3 has lowest coefficient of variation and highest premium for standard deviation hence, equity portfolio 3 is the best. Part ii: No, with current equity portfolios none of the single portfolio or combined portfolios would enable the committee to earn a 20% return with standard deviation of 10%. The minimum standard deviation at a return of 20% will be 11%, i.e. investment to earn 15% return from equity 3 and 5% return from equity 2. Standard deviation would be (8% + 6% x 50%) =11%. Part iii: Equity portfolios Expected rateof return Standard deviation Coefficient covariance Premium for risk 18%5%0.63160.0%18% 210%6%0.60166.7%110% 315%8%0.53187.5%115% 420%13%0.65153.8%0.84615 4 0.169231 525%18%0.72138.9% Total expected return50%
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7 BUSINESS Thus, total expected return would be 50% with 30% standard deviation. Part iv: Expected rate of return with equal weightage is calculated below: Equity portfolio s Expected rateof return Standard deviation Weightage investment Proportionate return 18%5%0.20.016 210%6%0.20.020 315%8%0.20.030 420%13%0.20.040 525%18%0.20.050 Expected rate of return0.156 Expected rate of return of weightage is 15.60%. Answer 3: Part i:
8 BUSINESS Calculation of yearly returns from the portfolio assuming that 30% funds are invested in Share A and 70% in market portfolio. YearReturn from share AReturnfromMarket portfolio Combine return 20121.509.8011.30 20132.106.308.40 20141.201.402.60 20151.8010.5012.30 20160.303.503.80 2017(0.90)(4.20)(5.10) 20181.204.906.10 Part ii: Calculation of average rate of return and standard deviation based on the 30% weightage in share A and 70% in market portfolio is calculated below: Average expected rate of return (39.40 /7)5.6 3% Standard deviation5.15%
9 BUSINESS Part iii: Calculation beta of stock A is provided below: YearReturn from share AReturn from Market portfolio 20121.509.80 20132.106.30 20141.201.40 20151.8010.50 20160.303.50 2017(0.90)(4.20) 20181.204.90 7.2032.20 Average return1.034.60 Beta of stock A (1.03/4.60)0.22 Answer 4: BondMarket value
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10 BUSINESS A5055.55556 B100111.1111 C5055.55556 D100111.1111 E200222.2222 500555.5556 Current Macaulay duration (555.5556 / 500)1.111111 Current Macaulay duration is 1.11. Modified duration = (1.11 /1+10%) = 1.11 / 1.10 = 1.0101 Part ii: The approximate value of the portfolio is calculated below: BondMarket valuePortfolio value A50.0055.56
11 BUSINESS B100.00111.11 C50.0055.56 D100.00111.11 E200.00222.22 Approximate value of the portfolio555.56 Part iii: In such case the bond manager should issue new bonds at low coupon rate to discharge the old bonds issued at higher coupon rates. Answer 5: Part i: Bond 1 YearCash flowPeriod X cash flowPV Factor @10% paPresent value of inflow 1990.9090918.181818182 29180.82644614.87603306 39270.75131520.28549962 49360.68301324.58848439 59450.62092127.94145954
12 BUSINESS 69540.56447430.48159222 79630.51315832.32896145 81098720.466507406.7944355 565.478284 Macaulay Duration (565.478 / 100)5.65478284 Part ii: In case bond yields rise by 1% then both bond 2 and 3 shall be sold to release the funds as the rate of coupon is significantly less than the yield to maturity in both bond 2 and 3. Part iii: In that case it would be better to invest in Bond 1 as it has proportionately higher coupon to yield to maturity rate as compared to Bond 2. Hence, with boom in yield to maturity it would be better to invest in bond 1 than bond 2 (Zabarankin, Pavlikov and Uryasev, 2014). Part iv: Expected percentage of price change in Bond 3 with credit rating upgrade resulting in reduction in yield to maturity 13% is calculated below. YearCashflowPVPresent
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13 BUSINESS factor @14.5% value 1100.8733628.733624 2100.7627627.62762 3100.6661686.661677 4100.5818065.818058 5100.5081275.081273 6100.4437794.437793 71100.3875842.63382 Value of the bond @14.5% yield80.99387 YearCashflowPV factor @13% Present value 1100.8849568.849558 2100.7831477.831467 3100.693056.930502 4100.6133196.133187
14 BUSINESS 5100.542765.427599 6100.4803194.803185 71100.42506146.75667 Value of the bond @13% yield86.73217 Change in price (86.73-80.99)5.7383 Expectedpercentagechangein price (5.7383 x 100/80.99) 7.08% Answer 6: Part (i): The fair value of the stock will be calculated using following formula: P = Dividend at the end of year 1 / (Cost of capital - growth rate) =₤11.20. Workings: Cost of equity as per CAPM model, Risk free rate + beta x Market risk premium. =18%
15 BUSINESS Annual growth rate = 12% Dividend at the end of year 1 = 60 x 112% = 67.20 pence. Part (ii): The fair value of the stock at the end of year 3 would be ₤6.48 and the fair value of the stock at the end of year 4 would be ₤6.81. Part (iii): In case the projections prove to be wrong and the stock grows only at 10% per year for 5 years and then falls to 4% for indefinitely then the stock will be over paid if these are purchase at fair value calculated in part (i). Answer 7: Part (i): The purchase of such contract implies that only the difference between the interest rate shall be used to settle the contract between the two parties on the notional principal amount. Thus, there would be no exchange of principal amount only the difference between interest rates shall be used for settlement. Part (ii): In case the three months interest rate would be 4% then it would be financially beneficial to sale the contract as it has higher rate of interest as compared to the 4% rate of interest. Expected profit would be as following: Expected profit {1000000 x (6% - 4%)}₤20,000
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16 BUSINESS Part (iii): By entering into a forward contract to hedge the rate of interest at 4% will be a best option to ensure that the risk of fluctuation in the interest rate in the future Answer 8: Part i: As per Black Scholes model the value of share is calculated below: The fair value is₤7.57. Part ii: Using the following formula:
17 BUSINESS The value of share would be₤8.84 Answer 9: Part i: US $ value in 270 days 1000001200005326.027125326 UK pound sterling value in 270 days 1000001000001479.452101479.5 Future price1.234989 Part ii: US $ value in 270 days 1000001200005326.027125326
18 BUSINESS UK pound sterling value in 270 days 1000001000001479.452101479.5 Sale proceed in pound after 270 days 104438.4 Less: repayment of Pound in 270 days 101479.5 Profit in 270 days2958.904 Part iii: a.The US $ shall be sold immediately if the expected future exchange rate is going to be $1.40/₤1. b.Profit in dollars is calculated below: US $ value in 270 days 1000001200005326.027125326 UK pound sterling value in 270 days 1000001000001479.452101479.5 Future price1.234989 Sale proceed in pound after 270 days 104438.4
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19 BUSINESS Less: repayment of Pound in 270 days 101479.5 Profit in 270 days2958.904 Profit in dollars3654.215 c.The loss will be $695 in case the initial assessment is wrong. Answer 10: Part (i): Dividend yield is higher that the risk free rate of interest as each point equals to₤10. Thus, there is a dividend return of (50 x 10) =₤500 which is significantly higher than the risk free rate of interest. Part (ii): By purchasing put option to sale the stock at a price higher than the loss margin that the investor is willing to accept will help the investor to manage the risk of significant loss in the stock market. Part (iii): Speculative strategy to use put option and by using hedging instrument the investor can reduce the risk of losing his investment due to sudden fall in the stock index. Answer 11: Expected rate of return on equity Debt / equity ratiop 10%p 20 p 30%
20 BUSINESS % 0.572747 1.52.333333915.66667 21.756.7511.75 From the above it is clear that the debt to equity ratio affects the rate of return on equity. The higher the debt to equity ratio the lower would the expected rate of return on equity. Answer 12: Part (i): Beta denotes the volatility of a stock or investment option. Thus, it can also be used to measure risk in investment. Part (ii): The SML is depicted below: Part(iii): The shares lying under SLM is overvalued.
21 BUSINESS
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22 BUSINESS References: Barberis, N., Greenwood, R., Jin, L. and Shleifer, A., 2015. X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model.Journal of financial economics,115(1), pp.1-24. Zabarankin, M., Pavlikov, K. and Uryasev, S., 2014. Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with drawdown measure.European Journal of Operational Research,234(2), pp.508-517.