Investment Decision Making for Fresh Juice Manufacturers

The given assignment content discusses the investment proposal for Fresh Juice Manufacturers in UK, using statistical tools to determine its viability. The net present value (NPV) of the project is positive, amounting to £280,650, indicating that it is a good investment opportunity. Additionally, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 46.83%, which suggests that the project's cash inflows and outflows are balanced at this rate. The analysis concludes that the project is a viable option for business investment.

BUSINESS DECISION
MAKING

TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................1
TASK 1......................................................................................................................................1
AC 1.1 Determination of consumer profile, preferences, attitude and their buying
behaviour...............................................................................................................................1
(B) Survey methodology and sampling method....................................................................2
(C) Designing of questionnaire for UK Fresh Juice organization.........................................3
TASK 2......................................................................................................................................5
AC 2.1 Data analysis of collected primary and secondary data............................................5
(B) Quartile and percentile deviation and correlation...........................................................9
Task 3.......................................................................................................................................10
(A) Analysis and conclusion by construction charts...........................................................10
(B) Construction of Trend Line...........................................................................................12
(C)Analysis through graphical representation.....................................................................13
(D) Formal Business Report................................................................................................13
TASK 4....................................................................................................................................13
Project plan for launching a new product in the market......................................................13
CONCLUSION........................................................................................................................15
REFERENCES:........................................................................................................................16

INDEX OF TABLES
Table 1: sales and profit of UK Fresh Juice Industry (In £).......................................................7
Table 2: Descriptive statistics.....................................................................................................8
Table 3: Quartile and percentile deviation of sales (In £)..........................................................9
Table 4: Quartile and percentile deviation of profits (In £).......................................................9
Table 5: Correlation between sales and profits........................................................................10
Table 6: Histogram of sales......................................................................................................11
Table 7: Histogram of profits...................................................................................................11

INTRODUCTION
Every organization needs to collect the necessary data and analyse it through different
analytical tools. There are two sources available to collect the required data, that is, primary
as well as secondary. However, data analysis can be done by preparing different kinds of
charts. Moreover, it can be done by applying variety of analytical tools such as average,
correlation and quartile as well as percentile deviation. This report will help in identifying
different sources of data collection for Fresh Juice Manufacturer Company in London (Laing,
Ross and Joubert, 2014). Moreover, it determines the techniques that are available for data
analysis. In addition to this, the present report will also focus on identifying the financial
viability of project.
TASK 1
AC 1.1 Determination of consumer profile, preferences, attitude and their buying behaviour
Data collection is an important activity and concerned with the preparation of
necessary data in a suitable manner. Information can be required for different purposes of the
organization for which primary and secondary sources are available.
Primary sources: This kind of data is collected by the investigator himself for the first
time. Every researcher identifies his own requirement and collects data by research (Zeleny
and Cochrane, 2010). It is also termed as the original information because this is collected by
the researcher himself. Primary research helps the organization to collect quantitative as well
as qualitative data.
Secondary sources: This type of data is previously collected by the others for their
purpose. It is also termed as published sources and includes internal and external information.
Internal data is already available in the organization such as their financial statements or
previous records. However, external data involves journals, newspaper, magazines and other
published sources outside the organization.
Fresh Juice Manufacturer in UK also conducts primary and secondary research so as
to identify the customer choices, consumer profile, their attitude and purchasing behaviour.
Consumer profile: It is the process of classifying consumers on the basis of different
factors. Fresh Juice Manufacturer of UK can classify the customers on the basis of their
locality, literacy, demographic and psychological factors. It helps the organization for
advertisement and marketing purpose. Research can organize the field surveys and direct
observation of customers as the primary source of data collection. However, secondary
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sources that are available for such purpose includes reports published by trade and business
association, existing market research results and customer database.
Consumer Preference: Different types of customer prefer different kinds of products
to fulfil their own requirement. In context to Fresh Juice Manufacturer, customers may prefer
Tropicana, Organic super juice, Apple juice, Pear juice and others. Primary research can be
done by experts by surveys and research. However, secondary sources can be collected from
the industrial sales figures for the previous period and newspapers.
Buying Behaviour: It is the total of consumer's attitude, preferences and their
behaviour in the market (Anderson and et.al, 2015). It is very much affected by the cultural,
social and personal factors. It has a great impact on the customer's purchasing decision for a
product or service. Primary research can take place by making questionnaire and secondary
research can be done by published economic reports and previous sales records.
Consumer attitude: It relates to the customer beliefs, feelings and their intentions in
context to marketing. It is concerned with the customer's past behaviour that also affect the
future intentions to a great extent. Questionnaire method can be adopted under the primary
research so as to know about the customer’s likes and dislikes. However, published economic
reports, commercial service reports and trade service reports can be used as the secondary
sources.
(B) Survey methodology and sampling method
Organization can collect the necessary data by conducting surveys and the use of
sampling methods as described below:
Surveys: It helps in getting a variety of information for different objectives of the
organization. Surveys are considered as the primary data source because it is done by the
investigator himself. Researcher must set the target market first so as to identify the place at
which the survey has to be conducted. Then the scholar has to determine the method to gather
the information. Questionnaire method is considered as the best method for such purpose as it
helps the organization to collect information from wider space. Moreover, it can be filled by
both researcher and customers. Researcher can fill the questionnaire by asking questions from
customers (Solomon and et. al., 2014). There are different kinds of questions that can be
structured in drafting a questionnaire so as to know the customer’s preference, choices, their
attitude and their behaviour. Moreover, it helps in identifying the factors that would affect the
consumer decision for purchasing the product or service. UK Fresh Juice Manufacturing
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Company can also use this method. It is an appropriate method because it is a confidential
source of information and takes less time and eliminates bias.
Sampling method: It is not always possible to collect the data of complete research
universe, that is, the target segment. Therefore, the sampling method will be used by the
organization. In this method, researcher determines the appropriate size of sample and
collects the related data. The sample should be a representative of the universe. Through this
method, the investigator can analyse the universe by collecting data of sample only. The
sample can be selected by two methods which are random sampling and non random
sampling. In random sampling, all the units of universe have an equal chance of possibility of
inclusion in the sample. The best advantage is that sampling error can be estimated in this
method (Ibrahim Dumas and McGuire, 2015). However, in non random sampling, sample is
determined on the basis of some factor. It is used by the organization for their convenience
and speed. Quota sampling and judgemental sampling is the type of such techniques.
Therefore, it can be concluded that random sampling will be more appropriate method for
UK Fresh Juice Manufacturers as it eliminates the present biases. Moreover, the probability
of all the units for determining the sample is equal.
(C) Designing of questionnaire for UK Fresh Juice organization
Questionnaire is the method of primary data collection technique as it is collected by
the researcher itself. A questionnaire is designed for analyzing the customer’s preferences,
attitude and choices for UK Fresh Juice Manufacturing Company.
Name
Age
Gender
Ques1: Which type of fruit juice highly satisfies your needs to prefer it?
 Apple Juice
 Pear Juice
 Juna Guanabana Juice
 Pomegranate Juice
 If any other (please specify)_______
Ques2: In last month, how many times you used to drink such fruit juice?
 10 to 15 days
 15 to 20 days
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 Daily
Ques3: How much amount did you spend on your preferred juice brand?
 Less than 150£
 150£ to 200£
 More than 200£
Ques4: From where do you purchase such fresh juice?
 Specialized shops
 Supermarket
 Any other (Please specify)______
Ques5: Which factor has a great impact on your buying decisions?
 Price
 Place
 Quality
 Volume
 Any other (Please specify)_________
Ques6: Do you satisfy that preferred fresh Juice is under your purchasing power?
 Yes
 No
Ques7: Do you satisfy with the quality produced by the juice manufacturer and fulfill your
nutrition requirement.
 Yes
 No
Ques8: Will you prefer such juice in the future period also?
 Yes
No
Ques9: Do you want to bring any changes in your preferred fresh juice in terms of quality,
price and packaging?
Specify: _______________________________________________________
TASK 2
AC 2.1 Data analysis of collected primary and secondary data
Data analysis can be done by constructing frequency table and making charts from
gathered primary and secondary data. Frequency table summarize the collected data by
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identifying the frequency for each item (Drucker, 2001). The frequency table for primary and
secondary data collected is explained below:
Primary data analysis: we have taken a sample of 40 consumers and use
questionnaire method for data collection.
Which type of fruit juice highly satisfies your needs to prefer it?
Particular Frequency
Apple Juice 15
Pear Juice 11
Juna Guanabana Juice 8
Pomegranate Juice 4
If any other (please specify) 2
40
From the above chart, it is clear that 15 customers prefer apple juice, 11 customers
prefer pear juice and 8 customers prefer Juna Guanabana juice. However, there are only 4
customers that prefer Pomegranate juice and 2 customers will prefer other kind of juice.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the demand for apple juice is quite high as it is preferred
by 15 customers.
Which factor has a great impact on your buying decisions?
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Apple Juice
Pear Juice
Juna Guanabana Juice
Pomegranate Juice
If any other (please specify)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15
11
8
4
2

Particular Frequency
Price 15
Place 6
Quality 12
Volume 5
Any other (Please specify) 2
40
The chart depicts that price is the most important factor that affects the buying
decision of consumers. Thereafter, quality is the second most important factor because 12
customers said that quality of juice would be must better. However, only 6 customers replied
that place is important while 5 customers replied that volume means quantity is important.
Moreover, only 2 customers said other factors such as marketing, advertisement also has a
great impact on purchasing decision (Nutt and Wilson, 2010).
Do you satisfy with the quality produced by the juice manufacturer and fulfill your
nutrition requirement.
Particular Frequency
Yes 32
No 8
40
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Price
Place
Quality
Volume
Any other (Please specify)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15
6
12
5
2

This chart clear that 32 customer said that better quality is provided by UK Fresh
Juice Manufacturer. Moreover, it fulfills their nutrition requirements. However, only 8
customers are not satisfied with the quality.
Secondary data analysis: Secondary data can be gathered from the industrial records
of sales and profits for the previous period (Hofmann, 2007). Here, we analyze the sales and
profit from the previous ten year records from 2004 to 2014, described below:
Table 1: Sales and profit of UK Fresh Juice Industry (In £)
Year Sales Profit
2004 950 100
2005 1075 125
2006 1130 135
2007 1400 160
2008 1750 200
2009 2200 275
2010 2550 300
2011 2800 315
2012 3200 350
2013 4000 400
2014 4500 475
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Yes No
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
32
8
Frequency

From the presented table, it can be seen that Fresh juice industry sales are
continuously increasing. The industrial sales for the year 2004 was 950£ and increases to
4500£ in the year 2014. Moreover, profits also tend to increase because of increasing in sales.
The profits of Juice industry is 100£ in 2004 and increases to 475£ in the year 2014.
Therefore, it can be said that in UK, Fresh Juice Industry has a great chance of succeed in the
future period.
Average, measurement of dispersion and other statistical tools: The industrial sales
and profit data is analyzed here by computing different statistical measurement such as
representative values and dispersion of measurement. The Average is considered as
measurement of central tendency that measures the representative value for the sales and
profit. However, dispersion measurement helps us in identifying the scatter of sales as well as
profits from its mean value (Kimmel, Weygandt and Kieso, 2010).
Table 2: Descriptive statistics
sales profits
Mean 2323.1818
181818
Mean 257.7272727273
Standard Error 365.07923
96723
Standard Error 37.1444577804
Median 2200 Median 275
Mode #N/A Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 1210.8308
567411
Standard Deviation 123.1942294989
Sample Variance 1466111.3
6363636
Sample Variance 15176.818181818
2
Kurtosis -
0.7678608
286
Kurtosis -0.9962567849
Skewness 0.5930850
569
Skewness 0.3238785389
Range 3550 Range 375
Minimum 950 Minimum 100
Maximum 4500 Maximum 475
Sum 25555 Sum 2835
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Count 11 Count 11
Representative value: The representative value (Average) is calculated by dividing the
total sales as well as total profits to the number of years. The Average sales is 2323£ whereas
the average profit is 257.73£ for UK Fresh Juice Industry.
Measure of dispersion: It can be find out by identifying the range, variance also the
standard deviation, explained below:
Range: It is the difference between highest and lowest value of sales as well as
profits.
Range = Highest Value – Lowest value
Sales = 4500£ – 950£ = 3550£
Profit = 475£ -100£ = 375£
Variance: Variance is the square of the standard deviation that helps in identifying the
variability of the data (Ferrell and Fraedrich, 2014). High variance indicates high variability
whereas low variance indicates lower volatility in the market. The variance for sales and
profit is very high for Fresh Juice Manufacturer indicates high volatility.
Standard deviation: The standard deviation helps in determining the market volatility
also helps in identifying the future market behavior. The standard deviation for sales and
profit is 1210£ and 123£ respectively.
(B) Quartile and percentile deviation and correlation
Table 3: Quartile and percentile deviation of sales (In £)
Sales
Quartile 1 1265 Percentile 25 1265
Quartile 2 2200 Percentile 50 2200
Quartile 3 3000 Percentile 75 3000
Quartile 4 4500 Percentile 100 4500
Table 4: Quartile and percentile deviation of profits (In £)
Profits
Quartile 1 147.5 Percentile 25 147.5
Quartile 2 275 Percentile 50 275
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Quartile 3 332.5 Percentile 75 332.5
Quartile 4 475 Percentile 100 475
Correlation: Correlation measures the interrelationships between two factors
(Pettigrew, 2014). Sales and profits are directly relates with each other. Correlation helps in
identifying the degree and level of relationship between sales and profits. Higher the sales
volume indicate high amount of profits and vice versa.
Table 5: Correlation between sales and profits
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.9916408001 1
The correlation between sales and profits indicate 0.99 indicate high relatedness
between them. It indicates that if sales are rising then profits also tend to rise positively.
Whereas, if sales is decreasing, then profits also tend to decrease for the period.
TASK 3
(A) Analysis and conclusion by construction charts
Charts are considered as an important statistical tool for analysis purpose. There is
variety of charts available to the organization for this purpose such as pie chart, bar chart and
histogram. Chart of ten year sales and profits for Fresh Juice Industry are as follows:
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Sales
Profit

Histogram: It is a graphical representation of distribution of numerical data. It is the
estimation of probability of continuous variable (Martin, 2015). Histograms for sales are as
follows:
Table 6: Histogram of sales
Bin Frequency
950 1
2133.3333333333 4
3316.6666666667 4
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More 2
From the presented histogram, it is clear that sales amounting to 2133.3£ and
3316.67£ has a highest frequency of 4. Therefore, it can be said that in most of the year, sales
amount will be nearest to 2133.33£ and 3316.67£ respectively.
Histogram chart for profits is prepared as under:
Table 7: Histogram of profits
Bin Frequency
100 1
225 4
350 4
More 2
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950 2133.33 3316.67 More
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1
4 4
2
Histogram - sales
Frequency

From the presented chart, it is clear that profits amounted to 225£ and 350£ had equal
frequency of 4. Therefore, in most of the year’s profits falls nearest to 225£ and 350£
respectively (Popovich, 2014).
(B) Construction of Trend Line
Trend Line: Trend line shows the tendency or occurrence of something (Robert,
2010). It represent the trend for different factors also helps in forecasting for the future
period. It may be of two type’s resistance and support trend line. Resistance trend line is
formed when prices are increasing while support trend line arises when prices are decreasing
continuously. Trend line for sales and profits are presented here:
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100 225 350 More
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1
4 4
2
Histogram - profit
Frequency
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
f(x) = 767.975906299486 exp( 0.162893815614357 x )
R² = 0.990622563602374
f(x) = 90.518938816701 exp( 0.155105129208021 x )
R² = 0.976312951337787
Sales
Exponential (Sales )
Profit
Exponential (Profit)

The Trend line of both sales and profits showed an upward trend. It implies that Fresh
Juice Manufacturer sales and profits are increasing continuously from the last ten years.
Moreover, it indicates that it will be increase in future period also (Business decision making,
2011). Therefore, the UK Fresh Juice Manufacturers contributes to success in future due to
higher the sales and profits.
(C)Analysis through graphical representation
Enclosed in presentation.
(D) Formal Business Report
To
The Decision Support Manager,
Fresh Juice Company
Date: 19th November 2015
After conducting the market research so as to know the customer preference, attitude
and their purchasing behavior it can be concluded that Fresh Juice Company has a great
chance of success in UK. For such purpose, company has to provide the better quality of
juice at reasonable prices only. It should satisfy the customer needs by provide energy and
nutrition to them. The Manufacturer will be able to achieve the growth by providing better
services to customer. Moreover, the trend line depicts uptrend in the market implies that
companies sales and return will be increase in the upcoming years. In addition to it, it also
helps in reducing the cost of the business operations. Moreover, the business unit can
compete effectively by making strategic planning and the market surveys.
TASK 4
Information processing tools
There are different types of information processing tools for taking effective business
decisions. Management information system and Data base management information system
helps the organization for collecting information. Under the management information system
all the business related information is maintained in a particular way. Management can get
any information at any time so as to take decisions. Further, technological improvement also
can be made in the information keeping system. For instance, data base management system
also is of significant importance for information collection purpose. Managers can collect
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important information through this system at any time. On contrary, it also helps to maintain
proper data security. Thus, it is clear that MIS and DBMS gains special importance for
getting the required information regarding business transactions. Management can make
effective and strategic planning and take decisions through these tools.
Project plan for launching a new product in the market
Launching a new Fresh Juice Drink: It is very important for the organization to make
a list of all the activities that have taken place before launching any new product in the
market. The organization needs to make effective planning that helps in satisfying the
customer needs (Bazerman and Moore, 2012). This in turn, helps in increasing the demand
for the product lead to increase the sales and profitability. The project plan for launching a
new product in the market will include the following activities, described below:
Activities Days Predecessor
Market surveys to determines customer choice, and their
purchasing behaviour 18 -
Collection of data by both primary and secondary sources 9 1
Analysis of data by applying different statistical and analytical
tools 15 2
Budget preparation by forecast various kind of expenditure 10 2,3
Make Strategic planning for launching new fresh juice drink in
the market 8 3,4
Implementing the plan 12 5
Reviewing the market performance of the product 7 6
Take necessary steps to meet the objectives 11 7
Gantt chart: Gantt chart concerned to all the activities for launching new Fresh Juice Drink in
the market are as follows:
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Network diagram: The network diagram for launching the product in the market is as follows:
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The Gantt chart and network diagram indicate the minimum time period that
organization will take to complete the project on time.
Financial tools for decision-making
There are different types of financial tools that are available to the organization for
decision-making purpose. Every organization is required to estimate and forecast the cash
flows associated with the investment proposal over the period. For instance, the revenues and
cost for material, labour and overheads are computed here for an investment that require
initial investment of 250000£, here as under:
Particular 1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
Revenue 200000 250000 300000 420000
Material 80000 85000 92000 120000
Labour 15000 18000 19000 20000
Overhead 5000 5000 7000 8000
Calculation of cash flow: Cost is determined through adding the material, labour and
overhead cost. However, cash flows are computed through subtracting the total revenue to the
total cost.
Revenue Cost Cash flows
200000 100000 100000
250000 108000 142000
300000 118000 182000
420000 148000 272000
Total 696000
Calculation of net present value and internal rate of return
Net present value: It is determined through using cost of capital @ 10%. Moreover,
net present value is computed through subtracting the total discounted cash inflows to the
initial investment.
Cash flows
Discounted cash flows @
10% Discounted cash flows
-250000 1 -250000
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100000 0.909 90900
142000 0.826 117292
182000 0.751 136682
272000 0.683 185776
IRR = 46.83% NPV = 280650
The net present value of the project is positive amounted to 280650£. Therefore,
business can make investment in this project.
Internal rate of return: It identifies the rate at which firm's total cash inflows and cash
outflow are equal. The internal rate of return for the present investment proposal is 46.83%.
Therefore the investment can be made in such project.
CONCLUSION
From the present report, it is clear that statistical tools are very important for the
organization. It helps in identifying the prevailing market trend and also the forecasting for
the future period (Pettigrew, 2014). Moreover, it identifies the volatility in the market for
Fresh Juice Manufacturers in UK. It helps the organization in meeting its goals and objectives
by providing good and better service to the consumers. In addition to it, the business
organization will be able to grab the large market share by determining the trend in the
market.
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