Business Intelligence System | Assignment

Running head: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM
Name of the Student:
Name of the University:
Author Note

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BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM
Answer to question number 1
A computer program which is able to mimic decisions made by human experts is known
as an expert system. These type of systems are capable of teaching, advising and taking expertise
decisions by themselves without eternal human interference. The environment for the
development of this type of this type of applications involve the actives which are acquired
necessarily and the representation of the knowledge for making explanations and the inferences.
The ES is applied in various type of programing conventions and has several other applications.
Among the applications the Rule-base ES deserve a special mention. This type of application is
represented along with a series of rules. The frame based systems have knowledge and the term
comes from a series of frames which are taken into considerations. In hybrid systems the
application of fuzzy logic and neural networks are done. In the model based system the system
under study is structured with model from the functions of the ES. An unutilized prepacked
software is known as the readymade software and the real times system are developed to produce
the users the real time updates.
The best application of the ES however remains the fuzzy network and neural network.
The neural networks are developed with the help of the fuzzy logic where the machines are made
to understand a particular set of instructions several times and then the machine provides the
users with the result just by reading the input. This applies ES to a huge extent.
As it is already known that the human expert is mimicked by an expert system it is worth
noting that the system is also capable of making errors that a human expert might do. However,
this occurs as there are wrong rules defined in the system and hence, a wrong diagnosis in the
system occurs. There is also situation when an ES is made to work with the incomplete

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BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM
information and this makes them provide the probabilistic answers to the users. This is because
often the ES is often not sure about the results of the diagnosis and often they are unable to
interpret a particular rule as stated by the users. For instances it can be considered that the rate of
malfunction can be measures with the certainty factor of 0.8 as per confirmation. It can be then
easily inferred that the system can provide incorrect results 20% of the time to the users. In
addition to providing wrong answers and probabilistic answers the system can also ask the wrong
question to the users at times and this results in yielding the in correct result for the users.
However, the separation of the inference engine from the knowledge base is very
essential and it is important the knowledge is organized in a non-sequential manner and hence, it
is easier to correct the mistakes once they are detected provided that the rules applied for the
system are incorrect.
Answer to question number 2
Part 2.1
Fact: dollar is declining.
Forward: Then, interest rate is up;
[ Rule 2: IF interest rates increase,
THEN bond prices will decline.]
then, bonds price is down.
[ Rule 5: IF the dollar falls,
THEN interest rates will decrease.]