TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................3 Overview of financial performance of five year....................................................................3 2. Peer group comparison.......................................................................................................6 3. Analysing the present issues with their impact of future earnings.....................................8 4. Estimating ROE of company for past 5 years with DuPont ROE approach....................11 Comparison of financial performance from Dupont approach.............................................12 PART 2..........................................................................................................................................12 2.a.........................................................................................................................................12 2.b.........................................................................................................................................13 3. Evaluation of value or price of organization....................................................................14 3.a Is Intrinsic value is differing from current share price?.................................................14 3.b Presenting that dividend discount model is appropriate or not......................................14 3.c Investment decision on basis of above evaluation of stock price...................................16 CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................16 REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................17
INTRODUCTION Company valuation is replicated as process of identifying economic value of a specific business or organization. It could be also used for determining fair value of business entity for numerous variety of reasons which consist of sale value and to establish partner ownership along with proceeding of divorce. The present report will discuss about overall valuation of Flight Ceneter travel group limited of past 5 years with context of public announcement as well. In the similar aspect, it will perform peer to peer comparison and analysis as micro and macro level. This report will state return on equity with DuPont analysis with appropriate demonstration. Further, it will be conducting regression for estimating beta and to adjust it for mitigating issue of stability. With context of beta, it will estimate return through CAPM as cost of equity in model of stock valuation. It will evaluate comparison from intrinsic and actual share price with context of dividend discount model. Overview of financial performance of five year Profitability ratio analysis YearFormula20142015201620172018 Gross Profit22072363262525442793 Net profit206,918256,553244,556230,773264,213 Sales revenue2,207,45 0 2,363,09 0 2,611,89 7 2,647,36 4 2,921,44 0 Earnings before interest and tax or operating profit 429403407300466 Capital employed10981270134614291550 Average total assets24102599289530983300
GP ratio Gross profit / sales * 100 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%95.6% NP ratio Net profit / sales * 100 9.38%10.88%9.33%9.08%9.04% Return on capital employed EBIT / capital employe d 39.07%31.73%30.24%20.99%30.06% Return on assets Net income / average total assets 8.59%9.89%8.46%7.46%8.00% Interpretation:The above table is replicating analysis of profitability ratio of Flight Center group Limited with context of return on capital employed and asset, gross and net profit ratio. From year 2014 to 2017 it does not have various fluctuations as in 2015 it decreased by 1.5% and further till 2017 it started decreasing by approx. 0.4% which is bad indicator for long term perspective and might impact in short term as well. In the similar context,itisgivingsimilarimpactonnetprofitratioasorganizationmustkeep appropriate watch on its operating and non operating expenses for evaluating profitability. By considering return on capital employed and asset is also decreasing from year to year with small proportion. Hence, it could be evaluated that its profitability is decreasing from 2014 to 2017 so organization must take various steps for increasing it growth on basis of profitability. Liquidity ratio analysis Year20142015201620172018 Current assets1,887,54 9 2,152,70 0 2,263,23 3 2,337,80 1 2,435,14 5 Current liabilities1,261,22 1 1,452,50 0 1,566,72 4 1,634,89 6 1,683,78 8
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Inventory1,0441,7891,7181,2431,625 Prepaid expenses2332394259 Quick assets18642119222222952374 Current ratio Current assets / current liabilities 1.501.481.441.431.45 Quick ratio Current assets - (stock + prepaid expenses ) 1.481.461.421.401.41 Interpretation:The above table is showing liquidity of Flight Center travel group limited with context of current and quick ratio. From year 2014 to 2017, it has stable current ratio, as organization was not capable to meet its ideal ratio which is 2:1. It signifies the incapability to repay its obligations from its current assets. Simultaneously, its quick ratio is good as it has ability to repay its short term obligations from its quick assets. Hence, it could be evaluated that its liquidity is not up to mark with current ratio but quick ratio is reflecting good indicator. Solvency ratio analysis Year20142015201620172018 Long-term debt20001 Shareholder's equity10981270134614291550 Debt-equity ratio Long-term debt / shareholders โ equity 0.00 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1
Interpretation:The above table is replicating capital structure of Flight Center travelgroupLimited.Itcouldbeclearlyviewedthatorganizationhasabsenceof borrowing as it is highly financing through equity. In year 2014 and 2018 it has borrowed but in 2015, 2016 and 2017 there was zero borrowings. Hence, it could be evaluated that the owner of organization has lost its ownership and power in process of decision making (Annual report of Flight Center travel Group Limited,2016). Efficiency ratio analysis Year20142015201620172018 Turnover or sales revenue22072363262525442921 Average total assets24102599289530983300 Receivables or debtors544449454533594 Total assets turnover ratio Sales / average total assets 0.920.910.910.820.89 Receivables or debtors turnover ratio (in days) (Debtor s * 365) / Credit sales 89.9 7 69.3 5 63.1 3 76.4 7 74.2 2 Interpretation:The above table is showing efficiency of organization with context of total asset turnover ratio and debtors turnover ratio. In year 2014, it was generating 92 cents of its sales which was decreasing from year as it was 0.89 in 2017. In the similar context, debtors turnovers was increasing from year to year which could be articulated that its debtors were set off in 89.97 days in 2014 as it suddenly rose to 69.35 days in 2015 but for recovering its position it decreased to 63.13 days. As the situation was not in control which is 76.47 in 2016 and 74.22
in year 2017. Hence, it could be evaluated that Flight center travel group limited is not efficient on basis of efficiency ratio. Public announcement: The Flight Central Travel group has announced agreement for acquiring two businesses which are leading such as Travel Managers Group (TMG) and executive travel group (ETG). In addition to this, ETG has consolidated position of organization as one the largest corporate travel management organization of Newzealand while TMG acquisition would be providing strong broker and complement to franchise network to its omni-channel leisure offerings. On this basis business entity has agreed to acquire 100% of both organization with application of cash to fund the major acquisitions (Annual report of Flight Center travel Group Limited,2017). 2. Peer group comparison Return on equity Return on asset Current ratio Debtors turnover Operating profit margin Helloworld travel Ltd11.02%4.77%1.11 4.89 9.70% Corporate travel management 18.25%9.93%1.171.724% Flight travel group17.66%8%1.455.1816%
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Reasoning The return on equitystates thatthe company providesto equity shareholders onthere investments thattheyhad made.The best ROEis providedby FlightTravel Groupwhich 23.39%. TheReturn onasset ratio indicates thathow profitable companyis whenitis compared with its total assets.The idealreturn onassets' ratioare 5%.so againthe Flight group is generating 13.1% ROA so it is very goodwhen compared with its peer Current ratio statesthe company abilityto paythe current liabilities of the company. Theideal current ratio is1.Flight travel group isthebest current ratio when compared to different companies insame sector. Debtors turnover ratiostates measure how efficient company is in collection ofthere payments from debtors.A higheris this ratio it meansthat collection processis very sound. Amongall thisflight travelis highest debtor turnover ratio. Operating Marginratio indicatedthat theprofit earnedby companyform themain business operationsthat theyare involved in. So, thebest operating marginisof Corporate travel management. Market cap ($) Flight travel group4.572 B Corporate travel management2.20 B Helloworld travel Ltd696 M 3. Analysing the present issues with their impact of future earnings This analysis of current issues with their impact of future earnings could be illustrated through PEST and Swot analysis.
SWOT Analysis Strength: ๏ทIt has presence of successful track record which has integrated various complimentary firms via acquisition and mergers. In the same series, it has integrated numerous technology organizations in previous years for streamlining its major operations for building a reliable supply chain. ๏ทThe activities are automated as it brings consistency to its quality products along with enabling business entity for scaling up and down on basis of high demand conditions in market. ๏ทIts portfolio of brand is very strong which is useful for expansion into different innovative product categories. ๏ทThere is presence of strong distribution network for reaching majority with reference to potential market. Weakness ๏ทIn the context of weakness, its profitability and net contribution is not matching industry average. ๏ทThe structure of business entity is not compatibly with the latest business model as it had set limit for expansion in number of adjacent product segments. ๏ทThere is inefficiency on basis of financial planning where current and liquid asset ratio is recommending that company can use its cash in very efficient aspect. ๏ทThere is huge requirement of innovative technologies in investment along with expansion scale and different geographies for expansion perspective. ๏ทInvestment on basis of research and development is below fastest growing players in context of this industry. This organization has lost capability for competing with its industry's leading players on basis of innovation. Opportunities ๏ทNew customers through online channel, the organizations has invested vast amount of money in online platform. The new sales channel was opened on basis of investment and opportunities are leveraged by understanding customer in better aspect. The needs are served with application of big data analytic.
๏ทThe stability in market has been up-brought due to low inflation rate. It also enables credit at less interest rate to its customers. ๏ทThe opportunities for investing in adjacent product segments had been provided through stable free cash flow. ๏ทThe customer spending is raised with economic uptick after recession years with slow rate of growth on basis of its industry. ๏ทIntroducingnewmarketduetogovernmentagreementasadoptionofinnovative technology standard government free trade agreement has been given for entering in emerging market. Threats ๏ทThere is absence of regular supply related to innovative products and supply of products are not regular as it leads to high and low swings of sales. ๏ทDevelopment of new technologies via market disruptor or competitor must be considered as very serious threat in medium to future of long term. ๏ทIncrement in raw material could be posed as threat on basis of its profitability. ๏ทThe operations of business entity are in various countries with appropriate exposure of currency fluctuations with volatile politic climate in its markets across the world. PEST analysis Political factors ๏ทPresence of political stability along with significance of consumer services sector in the economy. ๏ทThe corruption level, majorly related to regulation related to consumer service sector, ๏ทPresence of legal framework for enforcing contract. ๏ทProtection of intellectual property. ๏ทTrading partners are favored. ๏ทTaxation along with its tax rates and incentives as well. ๏ทThe interference and bureaucracy in industry of consumer services through government. ๏ทThe employee benefits are mandatory. ๏ทTariffs and trade regulation on basis of customer service. ๏ทAnti trust laws based of customer service.
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๏ทIndustrial regulation about safety, product labeling along with various requirements of consumer service. ๏ทWage legislation at minimum wages and overtime. Economic factors The macro economic factors like interest rate, foreign exchange rate, savings rate along with economic cycle for identifying sum of demand and investment in economy. However, microeconomics factors such as norms of competition are directly impacting the competitive advantage of Flight Centre travel group. Its main economic factors are: ๏ทIntervening government in free market on basisi of consumer services. ๏ทQuality of infrastructure in this industry. ๏ทWorkforce's skilled level. ๏ทEducation level. ๏ทTypes of economic system for operating in particular country. ๏ทHost country's comparative advantage and consumer service sector. ๏ทUnemployment rate ๏ทEconomic growth rate ๏ทEfficiency of financial market. ๏ทDiscretionary income ๏ทInterest rate ๏ทStages of business cycle such as recovery, recession, prosperity Social factors Thecultureofsocietyandmethodofperformingthingswhichareimpacting organization's culture in specific environment. The beliefs and attitude which are shared of population plays vital role in marketing of Flight Center Travel group Limited. The social factors are: ๏ทLeisure interests ๏ทEducation level along with education standard ๏ทEntrepreneurial spirit and society's broad nature. ๏ทDemographics and skill level of particular population. ๏ทCulture and attitudes Technological factors
In the present scenario, technology is disrupting different industries as transportation is replicated as best example. Generally. Business must not analyze technology of industry along with speed through which industry is disrupted. Technological factors impacts the things are stated below: ๏ทCost structure on consumer service industry impacted through technology. ๏ทvalue chain structure is impacted ๏ทtechnological developments ๏ทTechnological diffusion's rate ๏ทCost structure is impacted in basis of its cost. 4. Estimating ROE of company for past 5 years with DuPont ROE approach DuPont Analysis=(Net Income/ Sales)* (Sales/ Total Assets)* (Total assets/ Total equity) Year20142015201620172018 Net income207257245231264 Sales22072363262525442921 Net profit margin9.38%10.88%9.33%9.08%9.04% Total assets24102599289530983300 Asset turnover ratio0.920.910.910.820.89 Total equity10981270134614291550 Return on equity19.48%21.67%18.70%16.63%17.66% Financial leverage2.22.192.232.242.2 Interpretation:The DuPont analysis provides broad picture of organization's return on equity. Generally, organizations pinpoints and strengthens areas where is presence of scope for improvement aspect. From year 2014 to 2018, Flight center's is having various ups and down as it was 19.48% in 2014 and 17.66% in 2017. It might be because of accelerated depreciation in initial years (Jin, 2017).
Comparison of financial performance from Dupont approach YearFlight CenterHelloworld Travel LtdCorporate travel management Net income2643277 Sales2921323369 Net profit margin 9.04% 9.91%20.87% Total assets3300698805 Asset turnover ratio 0.89 0.480.48 Total equity1550301454 Financial leverage2.22.321.77 Return on equity17.66%11.02%18.25% Interpretation:The above table is reflecting financial performance on basis of return on equity or Dupont analysis along with comparison of flight center travel group ltd from both Webjet and corporate travel management Limited. Flight Center is capable for generating good sales, but Webjet Limited has maintained high sales with less cost of goods which could be observed above. On the contrary, Flight center limited is capable for generating huge turnover on assets as 89%. On basis of financial leverage, Flight center and Webjet has similar amount but Corporate travel management limited has very less leverage as 2.2 which seems riskier than compared to other comparison. Hence, Webjet Limited is leading and gaining high return on equity and is followed by Flight cementer group Limited (Flight Centre Travel group Ltd,2018). PART 2 2.a
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Particulars FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL (Return stock) S&P/ASX 200 - PRICE INDEX (Average return index) Avergae Return Stock0.00030.0001 Covariance5.94 Std devaiation0.0190.008 variance0.000366.68 Calculation of BetaCo-variance (ri,rm)/variance(rm) Beta0.89 Rf2.75% CAPMRf+(Beta*Market Premium) .0275+(.89*.09826) 11.50% Cost of Equity11.50% Risk Free Rates are the rates that investors are expecting bare minimum form any investment that they had done. As it is rates that even government will provide if they invest in there securities such as Bond etc. Risk free Rate of Return of 10 Year Government Bonds is 2.75% that had been provided by Australian Government (FLT share price, 2018). 2.b Dividend Discount Model-: It is the method for valuing a company stock price that are based on theory that are price of stock is sum of all future payments of dividend and are discounted back to the present values. In simple words it can be said as it is the net present value of future dividends. Value of Stock=DPS 1 / Ke - G Where DPS= Expected Dividends R= Required Rate of Return G=Growth Rate
ParticularsFigures Cost of Equity Ke11.50% DPS year 1177.07 Growth Rate6.03% Calculation of Intrinsic Value of Share 177.07 /11.5 โ 6.03 = 32.37 Calculation of Growth Rate Growth Rate= Retention Ratio*Du Point Roe Where Retention Ratio= 100-Payout R = 100 - 64.4 = 35.6 Return on Equity=Profit Margin Ratio*Total Assets Turnover Ratio*Financial Leverage Ratio ParticularsFigures So, Profit Margin9 Total Assets Ratio0.86 Financial leverage2.19 Return of Equity=9*.86*2.1916.9506 Growth Rate=35.6*16.95%6.03776 Growth Rate6.03% Value of Stock=DPS1 / R โ G Dividend per Share = 167 DPS for next year = 167 + 6.03% = 177.07 3. Evaluation of value or price of organization 3.a Is Intrinsic value is differing from current share price? The estimated intrinsic value and current share price are differing with huge proportion as its intrinsic price is 32.37 and current price is approx to 50. Hence, it could be evaluated that both price are having variations and currently it is overestimated. This stock must not be ignored as current market price is related to trading but not necessarily worth on actual aspect. Generally,
stock's market price always vary due to concept of demand and supply. The price replicates present demand for particular stock. The current market price of stock of Flight Center group limited is higher than book value due to high demand through its investors. Any stock which might appear at overestimated price, but it does not signify it should be least considered or purchased (Flight Centre Travel group Limited,2018). 3.b Presenting that dividend discount model is appropriate or not This model is considered as first type of discounted cash flow model at specified rate. This model always considers only dividends with context of cash flows which are legitimate. In case, any business entity does not pay dividend then this model could not be applied to it and on basis of amount of profitable and efficient cash flow along with its operations. In whole business, this is very popular model with different advantages along with disadvantages as well. This model is grounded in particular theory as its justifications are indisputable and rock solid along with simple logic as every business is reflected as perpetual entity. As the firm's value is perpetual along with stream which is never ending and buyer intends for accomplishing it on later perspective with time passage. In the similar aspect, dividends always tends for consistent over long duration. Generally, every business entity faces volatility in free cash flow and measure of earnings. The dividends are ensured by company and only paid from expected cash to be present in each year. Usually, unnecessary high dividend expectations are not set due to not fulfilling expectations which makes price of stock plummet at later perspective. In this model, there is always absence of ambiguity on basis of defining dividends as it has presence of subjectivity which constitutes earnings along with free cash flow. In case, with different analysts has come up with more or less similar valuation which lacks subjectivity and makes it reliable along with preferred. Dividends are only considered as valuation measure with availability of shareholder of minority. The institutional investors could acquire high stakes and actually influence policies of dividend payout and minority shareholders has absence of company's control. The only concern is related for receiving dividend on each year for receiving it in past on consistent aspect. Hence, the minority shareholder's concern along with dividends which are on metric and could be used for corporation's valuation. Thedividenddiscountmodelhasnumerousdrawbackswhichconsistofdifficult projections which are accurate along with fact with absence of buyback factor and fundamental
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assumption of income through its dividends. As it could not be applied with absence of dividend but it has realized capital gains via investing in stock. Generally, it is built on various flawed assumption which only values stock on return on investment by giving numerous dividends. In the similar aspect, its calculation uses various assumptions related to required rate of return and growth rate. The major fact is that, dividend yield always changes from substantial time. If any assumptions or projections are made through calculation along with slight error which gives outcome for identifying stock valuation. Its outcome for identifying valuation of stock which is significantly off for over or undervalued. However, most of these are engaged in adding more projections and calculations with context of error magnified over time. 3.c Investment decision on basis of above evaluation of stock price In the present scenario, every decision about investment must do appropriate fundamental and technical analysis as well. In the present era, every investor's objective it to buy on low and sell on high price and in this investor's considered analysis in stock of Flight Center group limited is likely to be sold in future for more price as compared to current market price, as it might be appropriate in excellent investment on basis of organization's current intrinsic value. In the above analysis, it has measure its profitability, liquidity, solvency and efficiency as well. As its original price is approx 32 but currently it is trading by 50 which means that price is overvalued. But whole decision regarding investment will be not on basis of this, it will also observe trend of ratio analysis and DuPont equation with its appropriate peer comparison. Hence, it could be evaluated that its liquidity is not up to mark but short term liquidity is good. In the similar aspect, overestimation of stock price shows that there is high demand so large position must be hold despite rich valuation and big margin as well. This move was due to simple reason as stocks which are overvalued and richly price defy gravity and continued to increase for prolonged duration. When stock is hot and in this context investors are clamoring for purchasing shares and price could continue to increase and lofty valuation multiples are sustained. If these shares are sold on early basis, then it might lock gains but simultaneously profits are set to limit. Hence, its financial performance is not good indicator with each parameter and it is also overvalued so in the present scenario, there would be absence of buying stock of Flight Center travel group Limited but not to be in short position also because of good demand (Reilly, Frank K., Keith C. Brown and Sanford Leeds, 2018).
CONCLUSION From the above study it had been concluded that valuation is important for organization which has desire to sell whole or particular proportion of its operations or to perform any merger or acquisitions with another business entity. It had been articulated that price of Flight travle group limited is overestimated from its actual price. The organization financial performance is not reflecting good indicator to its investors with parameter of profitability, liquidity, solvency and efficiency as well. Further this could be summarized that this stock is competing with Webjet and corporate travel management where Flight group's stock is at second position and this should not take long position at present moment.
REFERENCES Books and Journals Reilly, Frank K., Keith C. Brown and Sanford Leeds, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management (11th Edition), Thomson South-Western, 2018 Online AnnualreportofFlightCentertravelGroupLimited.2016.[Online].Available through<http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160825/pdf/439m08l6vnhtxs.pdf>. AnnualreportofFlightCentertravelGroupLimited.2017.[Online].Available through<http://www.fctgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Flight-Centre-Travel-Group- Annual-Report-2017.pdf>. FlightCentreTravelgroupLimited.2018.[Online].Available through<https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=flt.ax>. FlightCentreTravelgroupLtd.2018.[Online].Available through<https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FLT:AU>. FLTshareprice.2018.[Online].Available through<http://www.afr.com/research-tools/FLT/share-prices>.