This paper discusses the impact of climate change on project management in West Africa, with a focus on agriculture and water resources. It covers risks, vulnerabilities, and tools for analysis and adaptation.
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Running head: Complex Project Management Complex Project Management Name of the Student Name of the University Author Note
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Complex Project Management1 Executive Summary: The purpose of this paper is to discuss about the climate change in project management. The variation curve of the water runoff shows a rate of rainfall indices which has decreased in the last decade. These disturbances of the climate are causing the rivers to dry up, the vegetation is being destructed, production of agriculture is reduced and there has been increase in the water borne diseases.
2Complex Project Management Table of Contents Introduction:...............................................................................................................................4 The risks and the impacts that are observed, which are arising from the current and the future climate changeability and change in West Africa:.....................................................................4 Current climate related risks and vulnerability in Guinea:........................................................5 Tools for the risk of the climate and analysis of vulnerability at the local level:......................6 The practices and the opportunities for implementation:...........................................................6 Contributions of the project activities that are planned to mitigation and adaptation:..............7 The methodologies and the tools for accounting of carbon:......................................................7 Multiple stakeholders:................................................................................................................8 Ambiguity of the features of project:.........................................................................................8 Significant Authority influences:...............................................................................................9 Unknown features of project:.....................................................................................................9 Dynamic project governance:....................................................................................................9 Significant external influences:................................................................................................10 Usage of new technology:........................................................................................................10 Use of the un-developed technologies:....................................................................................10 The duration of the project exceeds the cycle of the relevant technologies:...........................11 Significant social influences:...................................................................................................11 Rader diagram:.........................................................................................................................11 Conclusion:..............................................................................................................................12 References:...............................................................................................................................13
3Complex Project Management Introduction: Fast population growth and a greater number of malnutrition people in the regions calls for an increase in the productivity of agriculture. Climate smart agriculture is a concept which can address both the challenges (Wise et al., 2014). The variation curve of the water runoff shows a rate of rainfall indices which has decreased in the last decade. These disturbances of the climate are causing the rivers to dry up, the vegetation is being destructed, production of agriculture is reduced and there has been increase in the water borne diseases. The purpose of this paper is to discuss about the climate change in project management. The risks and the impacts that are observed, which are arising from the current and the future climate changeability and change in West Africa: For an outcome that is successful of the FDH-INRM project, it is important for the stakeholders to be aware of the risks and the impacts which is posed by the changeability in the patterns of the weather and observed climatic changes on the various sectors. The planning of adaptation should be based upon the latest information of the climate that is available and the scenarios, which helps in addressing and identifying the short and the long term risks and the vulnerabilities. This part briefly illustrates, on the foundation of a literature review, the recent climate changeability that has been experienced in the recent years, the trends in the variables of the climate and the impacts on the resources of water and agriculture in the area (Navarro-Ortega, 2015). West Africa is regarded as one of the most vulnerable areas to CC all over the world and the proof of changes has been witnessed in the last decade. For the last 50 years, there has been a reduction in the annual rainfall in the west African countries. The deficit periods of rainfall are 1972-73, 1982-84 and 1997 but the areas of Sudan and Guinea regions are not spared from less rainfall. An investigation of the rainfall
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4Complex Project Management series shows that the there is a tendency of the isohyets to shift south of 200 km, which reflects a decrease in the rainfall all over West Africa, there are rainy seasons that are short, which are followed by long droughts due to evaporation and trans-evaporation. There has been a reduction in the average annual rainfall in the different regions which was recorded in the year 1970 (Hwang & Ng 2013). It is accompanied by droughts. The flow of the Niger River fell by 30% between the year 1971 and 1989. The flow of the rivers of the Senegal and Gambia also fell by a percentage of 60 due to a drop in rainfall in the same basin in the same year. The average discharge of the rivers of the regions went in to a decline of 30%-60% in the early 1970s. There have been reports of several droughts that have occurred in the year 1970 and first half of 1980.At the end of the 20thh century there have been reports of desertification which decreased the productivity of agriculture which reduces the biodiversity and degrades the environment. West Africa is one of the regions where desertification occurs due to less rainfall where the land that is arable are about 61% between the year 1990-2025. Current climate related risks and vulnerability in Guinea: According to the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), one of the wettest countries in the sub regions of West Africa is Guinea. An investigation of the data of rainfall from the year 1960 to 2004, it shows decline in the rainfall across Guinea. There has been increase in the average temperature of the country and decrease in the average rainfall. These are seen more towards the North (Rose et al., 2014). Studies show that droughts have been observed between the periods of 1961-1990. The variation curve of the water runoff shows a rate of rainfall indices which has decreased in the last decade. These disturbances of the climate are causing the rivers to dry up, the vegetation is being destructed, production of agriculture is reduced and there has been increase in the water borne diseases. There has been a need for the adaptation planning which is being evident so as to reduce the agricultural vulnerability and the future threats that are due to the climate variability (Dawson & Scott,
5Complex Project Management 2013). Fast population growth and a greater number of malnutrition people in the regions calls for an increase in the productivity of agriculture. Climate smart agriculture is a concept which can address both the challenges. It aims for increase in the productivity of agriculture and reduction or removal of GHG, and each of them contribute to the achievement of development goals and security of the national food. Tools for the risk of the climate and analysis of vulnerability at the local level: Sustainable and successful adaptation methods should always be selected not only on the basis of the interpretation of the climatic data but also in accordance with the culture of the locals, priorities and aspirations. In reality climate data often should always be downscaled at the level of the project, and the perception about the climate risks and vulnerability is an important part of the risk of climate analysis (Kunreuther et al., 2013). A number of methods and the tools have been made in the international forum for development for solving these two problems. This part of the report has a brief description of the three tools so as to conduct an evaluation of the vulnerabilities and the impacts. The practices and the opportunities for implementation: This part discusses about the practices and the approaches in the forest and agricultural sectors of management based on the review of the national CC. This section gives an overview of the relevant options so as to strengthen the FDH region capacity to respond to the hazard of the climate. This part briefly illustrates, on the foundation of a literature review, the recent climate changeability that has been experienced in the recent years, the trends in the variables of the climate and the impacts on the resources of water and agriculture in the area. West Africa is regarded as one of the most vulnerable areas to CC all over the world and the proof of changes has been witnessed in the last decade. There have been reports of
6Complex Project Management several droughts that have occurred in the year 1970 and first half of 1980(Harrison, Holman & Berry, 2015).At the end of the 20thh century there have been reports of desertification which decreased the productivity of agriculture which reduces the biodiversity and degrades theenvironment.Everyoptionshouldbecomparedtotheirbenefitsoftheircosts, complexities and the effectiveness of the project shareholders in relation to a large range of factors which is related to the socio-economic and agro-ecological contexts. Contributions of the project activities that are planned to mitigation and adaptation: The protection of watershed and the rehabilitation of the watershed areas that is degraded present a very high potential to increase of resilience to CC while reducing and storing the emissionsof carbon.The projectwasnot designedspecificallyso astoaddressthe dimensions of CC. In reality climate data often should always be downscaled at the level of the project, and the perception about the climate risks and vulnerability is an important part of the risk of climate analysis. A number of methods and the tools have been made in the international forum for development for solving these two problems. The main objective of the encouraging the sustainable management and the conservation of NR and FDH over the long term so s to improve the livelihood of the population (Waldhoff, 2015). It is recognised that the CC and the variability are among the root causes of the degradation of the natural resources of FDH. The variations in climate and the droughts are said to be among the risks affecting the sustainability of the project. The methodologies and the tools for accounting of carbon: The carbon balance of the project is measured by putting forward the project performance in terms of mitigation of the climate, planning of low activities of carbon and to obtain funds from the finance of carbon. A large number of models and tools are there so as to conduct the
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7Complex Project Management accountingofcarbonisavailable.Theyvaryinscale,aim,landusemanagement, geographical coverage and the pools of carbon. As result they have high variable in number and the details of the parameters that are given in input and the output accuracy. At present there are no model which can be considered to be standard. Multiple stakeholders: The stakeholders are the individuals or the group of the individuals, who have a potential impact and interest in an organisation. At the place of applying the attitude for wait and see, all of the organisations are taking one approach which is proactive at the present time, because the organisations are paying so much attention to the consequences, risks as well as the threats for change that is happening in the climate. The complexity factor is almost fifty-seven percent. The weight is having validity for the change in climate. All of the organisations are beginning to look down upon what is the importance of the stakeholders and their engagement as the responses which is so much strategic against the battle that is against the change that is happening in the climate. Ambiguity of the features of project: The states which are developed are also committed to the public based financing which is having so much importance for the adoption that is in the change that is happening in the climate change. This is so much delegated through the states that the monitoring as well as the implementation of the adoption for the international based companies which are already existed.The complexity factor for the ambiguity of the project features is around 48% as well as the ambiguity is having the validity for the change in the climate (Bulkeley & Newell, 2015). This is also noted by all of the scholars which the discretion of the states that are delegated to all of the organisation which are specializes for the performance of tasks on
8Complex Project Management behalf of the organisation but this has not even explored about the non-certainties of the nature of the task. Significant Authority influences: The opinion which is so much scientific, on behalf of the climate change that is a judgement which needs to be done by the science experts. The complexity factor for the significant authority influences is around 35% as well as the important influence of the authorities that are having genuine validity for the change of climate. In the climate change the policies that are related to the economy in the approach that has applied the political thinking, politics for the critical study related problem that are surrounded for the decision making fir the climate change. Unknown features of project: The population has flummoxed normally or not certainly, the complexity factor for the unknown project features is 33% as well as it is valid partially for the change in climate. Theoverwhelming makes the atmosphere less unmistakable. Dynamic project governance: For the dynamic project governance, the complexity factor is around 29%, and this is valid for the change in climate. West Africa is regarded as one of the most vulnerable areas to CC all over the world and the proof of changes has been witnessed in the last decade. There have been reports of several droughts that have occurred in the year 1970 and first half of 1980(Williams & Brown, 2014). At the end of the 20thh century there have been reports of desertification which decreased the productivity of agriculture which reduces the biodiversity and degrades the environment. In reality climate data often should always be downscaled at
9Complex Project Management the level of the project, and the perception about the climate risks and vulnerability is an important part of the risk of climate analysis. Significant external influences: The heat and the temperature of the whole world are relying upon on the equalization that is between the arrangement which is the vitality entering as well as leaving of the earth. At that point at the time the vitality has been originating from the sun at the time it is possible to be consumed by the temperature and the arrangement of the earth (Bulkeley, 2013). For the significant external influences, the complexity factor is around 28 percent, this is just partially valid for the change in climate. At the time the vitality has been retained as well as discharged again within the space, the earth is chilling off. The elements are as follows: Changes in reflectivity. Varieties in the vitality of the sun. Changes in the impact of the ozone depleting substances. Usage of new technology: The job of the advance technologies to tend for the problems that are related to the societal like the contamination of air such as the contamination of water(Ebi et al., 2014). For the use of the new technologies in climate change the complexity factor is 26%. The developments that are going to happen in the project because in the pharmaceuticals and in the hardware where the outcomes of the approaching are the new item what the consumers actually want. Use of the un-developed technologies: As the past and the continuous outflows of the O3depleting the substances for incurring the damages which is on the atmosphere and appropriation which can allude to find
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10Complex Project Management fortheexecutionofthemethodsforthesounds.Fortheuseoftheun-developed technologies, the complexity factor is almost 25%. For the advancement of the difficulties is to give the guarantee which are the best requirements that will be served by them. The project was not designed specifically so as to address the dimensions of CC. The main objective of the encouraging the sustainable management and the conservation of NR and FDH over the long term so s to improve the livelihood of the population(Hewitt, 2004). It is recognised that the CC and the variability are among the root causes of the degradation of the natural resources of FDH. The duration of the project exceeds the cycle of the relevant technologies: The adoption of the governance poses some of the issues that are demanding as well as they are specific such as the context of the fragmentation of the organisation. A large number of models and tools are there so as to conduct the accounting of carbon is available (Gerber, 2013). They vary in scale, aim, land use management, geographical coverage and the pools of carbon Their existence that is in the evidence that the impact of chicxulub had affected severally the climate of the Earth.
11Complex Project Management Significant social influences: Rader diagram: Multiple stakeholders Ambiguity of project features Significant political influences Unknown project features Dynamic peoject governance Significant external influences Use of technology Social influences Highly regulated environment Project duration exceeds the cycle 0% 50% 100% Climate change Conclusion: Thus it can be concluded from the above report that the climate change poses the additional challenges for the sustainability of the water sheds in all over the world. The flow of the rivers of the Senegal and Gambia also fell by a percentage of 60 due to a drop in rainfall in the same basin in the same year. The average discharge of the rivers of the regions went in to a decline of 30%-60% in the early 1970s. There have been reports of several droughts that have occurred in the year 1970 and first half of 1980.At the end of the 20thh century there have been reports of desertification which decreased the productivity of agriculture which reduces the biodiversity and degrades the environment.
12Complex Project Management References: Bulkeley, H. (2013).Cities and climate change. Routledge. Bulkeley, H., & Newell, P. (2015).Governing climate change. Routledge. Dawson, J., & Scott, D. (2013). Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector. Tourism Management,35, 244-254. Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Arnell, N. W., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., ... & Winkler, H. (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions.Climatic Change,122(3), 363-372. Gerber, P. J., Steinfeld, H., Henderson, B., Mottet, A., Opio, C., Dijkman, J., ... & Tempio, G. (2013).Tackling climate change through livestock: a global assessment of emissions and mitigation opportunities. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Harrison, P. A., Holman, I. P., & Berry, P. M. (2015). Assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation: an introduction to the CLIMSAVE project. Hewitt, C. D. (2004). Ensembles‐based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union,85(52), 566-566. Hwang, B. G., & Ng, W. J. (2013). Project management knowledge and skills for green construction: Overcoming challenges.International Journal of Project Management, 31(2), 272-284. Kunreuther, H., Heal, G., Allen, M., Edenhofer, O., Field, C. B., & Yohe, G. (2013). Risk management and climate change.Nature Climate Change,3(5), 447.
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13Complex Project Management Navarro-Ortega, A., Acuña, V., Bellin, A., Burek, P., Cassiani, G., Choukr-Allah, R., ... & Grathwohl,P.(2015).Managingtheeffectsofmultiplestressorsonaquatic ecosystems under water scarcity. The GLOBAQUA project.Science of the Total Environment,503, 3-9. Rose, S. K., Kriegler, E., Bibas, R., Calvin, K., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., & Weyant, J. (2014). Bioenergyin energytransformationandclimatemanagement.Climatic Change,123(3-4), 477-493. Waldhoff, S. T., Martinich, J., Sarofim, M., DeAngelo, B., McFarland, J., Jantarasami, L., ... & Li, J. (2015). Overview of the special issue: a multi-model framework to achieve consistent evaluation of climate change impacts in the United States.Climatic Change,131(1), 1-20. Williams, B. K., & Brown, E. D. (2014). Adaptive management: from more talk to real action.Environmental Management,53(2), 465-479. Wise, R. M., Fazey, I., Smith, M. S., Park, S. E., Eakin, H. C., Van Garderen, E. A., & Campbell, B. (2014). Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response.Global Environmental Change,28, 325-336.