Decision-making under certainty and uncertainty

Running head: ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
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1ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
Confidence Certainty and Uncertainty
Pouget, A., Drugowitsch, J., & Kepecs, A. (2016). Confidence and certainty: distinct
probabilistic quantities for different goals. Nature neuroscience, 19(3), 366.
This study describes the conditions of certainty and the confidence are closely related and
this study describes that both the concepts are quiet same. This study shows how the certain
conditions are different from the uncertain conditions. The study describes that the certainty and
the confidence are related as the business leader gets confidence while taking any decisions as
the conditions are already known to them from the previous experiences.
The conditions of decision making under certainty means that the conditions of the certainty
exists when the decision maker knows that with the reasonable certainty that is what are the
conditions that are associated with each of the alternatives and the outcomes of each alternatives.
The decision those are made under the conditions of certainty will be more accurate, measurable
and the reliable informations those are based on the decisions that are available. As stated by
Pouget (2016), the cause and the effect relationships are mostly known for this type of decision
making process. This also stated that the future are highly predictable under the conditions of
certainty. Such conditions are mostly found to be existing in the case of the routine and the
repetitive decisions that are concerned with the day to day operations of the business process.
Kepecs (2016), stated that the significant decisions are made in now a day’s complex
environment that are formulated under the state of uncertainty. The conditions of uncertainty
exists when the future environment is unpredictable and everything deals with the state of flux.
The decision maker is also not aware of the fact of the available alternatives and the risks that are
associated with each and the consequences of each of the alternatives and the probabilities. Even

2ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
in this type of decision making process under uncertainty, the manager also does not possess the
proper information regarding the alternatives and the information those are available may not be
reliable. In such phases of uncertainty, managers are required to make complete assumptions
regarding the situations for providing the reasonable frameworks for the decision-making
process. The manager and the leaders are required to depend upon the judgment and experiences
for making decisions. Although there are several modern approaches made upon for improving
the quality of decision making under the condition of uncertainty.
Therefore, this study concludes that the confidence could be described as the probability that the
decision taken is correct by the given evidence. This study suggests that the term certainty could
be referred to the encoding of the probability distributions over the sensory and the cognitive
variables.
Decision-making under uncertainty and certainty
Merigo, J. M. (2015). Decision-making under risk and uncertainty and its application in
strategic management. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 16(1), 93-116.
This study introduces the new decision making model that unifies the risks and the
uncertain environments in the same formulation. This study also provides the decision making
conditions under uncertainty and how is it different from the certain conditions in the decision
making process. This study also focused on the multi person decision making problem in the
strategic management.
The conditions under the certainty are considered as the decision maker that has full
information required for making the decision as the decision is made under the condition of the
certainty. The manager are required to know the details of what the outcome will be as he has