Contemporary Business Environment: UK Housing Market Analysis
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This report evaluates the housing market of UK over the period of 2009-2019, including economic determinants of changes, government actions, and impact of COVID-19. It analyzes house prices, factors affecting prices, and the role of government policies.
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CONTEMPORARY BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
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Table of Contents INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................3 TASKS........................................................................................................................................................3 1. House prices in the United Kingdom changed over the period between 2009-2019............................3 2. Economic determinants of the changes in housing prices....................................................................7 3. How the UK Housing market has been affected by the actions taken by government over a period of 2009-2019..............................................................................................................................................10 4. Determine the impact of CVOID-19 on the UK Housing Market......................................................11 CONCLUSION.........................................................................................................................................13 REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................14
INTRODUCTION Evaluation of external and internal business environment is important for housing sector. Housing Internal environment means the factors that affect the organization of the company or sector on internal basis (Čepel, Stasiukynas and Dvorský, 2018). It includes organization structure,cultureandmanagementstructure.Externalenvironmentmeansthepolitical microeconomic technological and social factors that influence a organization or industry. Housingmarket definesas the demand and supply for houses in a particular region or country. It is associated with average price of houses and trends in prices of house. The report will evaluate the housing market of UK over the period of 2009-2019. It will explain economic determinants of changes which is outlined in prior question. Furthermore, it will evaluate the government actions in the period from 2009 till 2019. Then, it will explain the impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom housing market. Lastly, brief summary will be given. TASKS 1.House prices in the United Kingdom changed over the period between 2009-2019 House price is affected by various factors such as demand, supply and mortgage rates. House price increased when the demand exceed supply (BaptistaFarmer and Uluc, 2016). The highest average price of house is in UK. The average pricing of house in United Kingdom from 2009 to 2019 is as follows - Cost of housing- In the starting of the 2009 the lowest price of house in UK is determined 157.2000Britishpounds in an average. In the beginning of 2013 house price has increased on quarterly basis. The prices get boosted around 9% between theyears 2013 to 2014. The average house price is noted as 230.3 thousand pounds in February 2020. Cost of Renting- It is for the person who don't own house or is not interested to purchase a house of their own. They have alternative to buy home at rent. The demand of real estate is high in UK. The residential property market is being growing. The renting is becoming more affordable than purchasing own house.
Figure1Annual house price rates in UK (Source: UK House Price Index, 2019) The average priceresidentialproperty has increased by 1.1% in year 2019 till theJuly first quarter. It is reaching estimate value of 216000Britishpounds in second quarter of year 2019.The lowest annual increase is seen since from the year 2012. The houses become more expensive from the year 2013 in Ireland, Denmark, Germany and Netherlands. This trend is comefrom European phenomenon. Theresidentialproperty in UK is not expected for becoming cheaper (Xuesong, 2018). It is estimated that residential price will further grow in upcoming years as the government started refocusing on the issues of domestic after the Brexit. The averageprices of house in United Kingdom havebeen increased to 0.9% till the June 2019.
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Figure2UK house price change (Source : UK House Price Index, 2019) The cost of the house in UK is of 230,000 pounds till theJune2019. This is increased from the previous year of 2018. It is increase by 2,000 pounds. As per the non seasonal adjustment, average price in the UK is increased by 0.7% in betweenMayandJune2019.
Figure3Annual Prince Change rate in London (Source: UK House Price Index, 2019) Over the recent years there is slowdown in housing price growth of UK. It is driven mainly by the slowdown in east and south of England. The lower growth rate is inLondonon the annual basis. The price has fallen by 2.7% till the June 2019 which is also lesser than in May 2019 in which it was fallen by 3.1%. The house price is falling down in the London since from March 2018. England price has remained highest in the UK.
Figure4Average house price in UK (Source:UK House Price Index, 2019) In the Wales the house prices have been increased to 4.4% in the year 2019. The rate of house is 164,000 pounds. In Scotland the prices is increased in the yearJune2019 by 1.3 percentages. The cost of House is Scotland is inaverage of152,000 pounds. The average house cost in England inJune2019 is increased by O.7%. The cost of residential property in England is 247,000 pounds. Northern Ireland housing price is raised by 3.5%. It has been evaluated that NorthernIreland is cheapest among all the countries in UK (Adesiyan, 2016). Northern Ireland cost of house averagely is of 137,000 pounds. 2. Economic determinants of the changes in housing prices Various determinants of house prices are as follows - Income- At the beginning of 2007 there was a time that incomes are rising on rapid basis. The economy is experiencing a rapid boom. The people aretendingto spend their income on purchasing housing property (The analysis of the determinants of housing prices, 2017). They are either purchasing house firstly or are moving to a better house. The people are also thinking that their income will grow. In the years 2008 to2009 there is period of recession in which unemployment rate gets high. The income of the people is also fallen down.People havebecome less confident for affording the mortgage.
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Cost of Mortgage- The rate of mortgage istendingto be very less before 2009. The people are able to afford the larger mortgages. Hence, they started purchasing more expensive houses. It also means people have capacity to buy a house for their own. The mortgage interest rates are also gets increased which results into that people are finding difficulties for maintaining their existing payments. The interestrate getsincreased from the year 2004 to 2007. In the year 2007 to 2009 it has become more difficult for the people to afford a house. The rate of mortgage has been increased. Speculation- At the time whenprice of the house is at boom, people believes that house cost will continuously grown like this. This has encouraged the people for purchasing the mortgage as soon as possible for taking the competitive advantage. The people who gave house to sale it back are hoping to earn higher profitability. This effect results in rightwardshifting of demand curve and leftward shifting of supply curve. This effect is called speculation. It is all about the effect which the people are predicting. In the year 2008 it is all turn out opposite. Thus, the people started to sale the houses before the price gets low on the future (Duvier, Neagu and Dickens, 2018). In this way the price of houses has fallen down. Speculation is compounded by the improvement in buy to let industry. The mortgagelender entersin the housing market and media attention is also focused on possibilities for the individual for making higher returns. The relationship between price and demand-When the price of goodraisesthe demand in the quantity of the goods gets decreased. This type of relationship is termed as law of demand. The tworeasonsis present for this law - The people started feeling poor. They are not able to purchase the good in thatmoney. Thepurchasing power of the customers are also gets decreased. It is known as income effect of rise in price. The cost of good ishigherthan substitute or alternative and people also switch tothe substitution. This is known as substitution effect of the price. When the price of the good is decrease, the quantity of demand is getting raised. People are able to purchase more when they switch on consuming alternative products and goods.
Movement and shift in demand curve- It isassumedthat none of demand determinants are other than the price. The effect of price change is simplyillustratedthrough movement along with demand curve. As any of thedeterminants gets changed then the demandcurve is created. If the change indeterminatecause the demand to get rise than the price alsorises, the whole curve get shifted towards the right. It also indicates that each price will be in more demand than earlier. The demand curve- The shifts and movement in the demand curve is also affecting the housing price. This is assumed that determinants of demand are interlinked with the price changes. The UKprice in housing sector getsraised then it show rightshift ward ofdemand curve (Cook and Watson, 2016). When the housing price gets lower down than the demand of the house is left curved. Supply and price- At the time the price of house get raised than quantity supply is also gets raised. Threereasonsis present for these quantity supply - At the time when the firm supply more than it is likely to be happen a specific level of output. The costs are alsogettingincreasing rapidly. In this case the housing agent feels to built house more in quantity. When the price gets higher of housing market, it is more profitable to do a business like housing. Thus, the housing agent also gets encouraged for selling the houses through switching from less profitable business of housing. If the cost of house is remains high than the people will be encouraged to setting up the business but on the other people are not able to purchase a house if their income is not good enough. Change in technology- Technological advancement is fundamental alter the production costs. The change in technology affects the housing market. With the rapid growth in technology the work becomeeasierand houses are built more easily. Government policy- The policyof the government also impactsthe housing sector. Therise in taxes influencesthe housing market. If the government policy in the UK is good then people prefer to purchase the house otherwise not.
Change in demand- It is determinant of change in demand which is other than the prices. The demand curve shifts. It leads to a movement along with the supply curve to new point of intersection. If theincome of house getsraised than the demand of the house is also get increased. As the income doesn't change the demand will remain constant. Change in supply- It is one of the supply change factor which is other than the price of whole supply curve shift. This also leads to move along with the demand curve to intersection point. As the housing price gets raised due to the high mortgage rate and less supply than supply for the house is automatically decreased. 3. How the UK Housing market has been affected by the actions taken by government over a period of 2009-2019. Due to some government actions, the UK housing market was at the weakest point when the global financial crisis a decade ago has put off buyers, according to a leading estate agent. The Savills, who is engaged in the business of managing commercial and residential property around the world, said a very less number of houses were sold in UK in the first half of 2019 than in any year since the first half of 2009. The declines were due to London, where prices have fallen rapidly after years of rapid inflation. The average price of homes in London that are sold by Savills fell down by 32%, to £2.1m, in the first half of 2019 as compared to previous year, as the company shifted interest towards less expensive homes to search for a weakness in “prime properties”, that worth more than £3m. Price of House was fallen down unexpectedly as inflation creates a weakness in UK which also reached to international markets which resulted in political instability and slow global economic growth. According to some editors, Hong Kong faced weeks of political protests, also by which office investment volume fell down by 34% after each year in this period. The broader impact was of the imposition of Sino/US trade tariffs that has affected investment by UK. The market had previously warned about expected profits that are going to decline in 2019, before either the Brexit extension or the Hong Kong protests, affected UK housing market by two of these key reasons (Czischke and van Bortel, 2018). Many markets, particularly the UK and Hong Kong are affected by political and economic uncertainty that has considerably reduced the volume of real estate trading activity in
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recent months, although occupier demand remained low (Best and Kleven, 2018). Decline in demand for the secure income qualities of real estate remains high, but these macro uncertainties affected more on investors sentiment and predictions in respect of short-term market activity that made it difficult to determine with accuracy. The Housing market's total revenues grew only about 16% in each year and in the first half it was £847m, because of growth in non-transactional operationssuchasfacilitymanagementandconsultancy.InUK, salesvolumesofboth residential and commercial property have been reduced by these uncertainties since June 2016. While prices are still rising on an average across the UK, the pace of growth has slowed. The average house prices in UK have increased by 1.2% in May 2019, and were slow at 1.5% in April 2019. Uncertainty continued in the first half of year 2018 after the government delayed the scheduled date of Brexit to 31 October, which resulted in lowering the prospects of short-term increase in demand for property in UK. The British commercial market, including retail properties, warehousing and office space also declined. The average income of housing market is fallen by 7% and continuously fallen down year after year in the first half. By this Brexit-related uncertainty continued. And a time came when the retail sector and housing sector faced significant and several changes that are need to be made in its business model. 4. Determine the impact of CVOID-19 on the UK Housing Market. The UK has stepped up its action plan to delay the spread of corona virus. A lot of people are now asking about what the health crisis might do to the country’s housing market. For many months, the Brexit and COVOID-19 has been the dominant topics across the UK (Nicola, Alsafi and Agha, 2020). However, the Conservatives landslide victory in December election saw that the party finally secures a majority government. Since the Boris bounce made the Housing Market to its lowest as the fear has grabbed the whole market. But now corona virus or COVID-19 could create a new set of challenges. It has already set the global stock markets on their lowest downward trajectory in decades. Just a few weeks ago, the markets experienced their worst day since 1987. The FTSE 100 index lost 10.87%, while the Dow Jones forcefully closed the day 10% down. So far, reports shown that corona virus has had little effect on property market (Fernandes, 2020). According to London estate agent Benham & Reeves, confidence in the London property market is still stable and is
growing. It has carried out transactions of a higher value in the past quarter than the preceding 12 months. Comparing the effect of corona virus to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit can also be useful. While the EU referendum caused some short-term wobbles in the market, in the long- term house prices continued to rise since 2016. Most of those involved in the housing market with long-term views remained undeterred throughout. But some more hesitant homebuyers, movers and property investors have had more confidence to push forwards since December. This is reflected across a number of house price indices, which have all recorded growth in house prices and transactions. In fact, December was the first month when every region in the country saw house prices rise. The government was expecting corona virus cases to peak in several weeks, which is an extremely short period of time in any market. As the world works hard to find answers and a vaccine against the disease, the expectation is that its effect on market confidence will be similarly short-lived. According to an article in Forbes by Gary Barker, the global economy should also be resilient in the long run. However in a short-term, granular level, it could affect some parts of the housing market. For example, some people's finance may suffer as a result of corona virus, which can cause a slowdown in their individual transactions. On the other hand, people could be reluctant to attend house viewings or visit agents. For those living overseas looking to invest in UK property would resist as travel could be extremely difficult or may be impossible for some these days. This is where technology could play a key role to keep the housing market moving. Where possible, many firms may encourage employees to work from home to reduce the infection risk. When viewings and valuations are necessary, people can use video call, send recordings and pictures, or even use virtual reality headsets in some cases. For conferences and meetings, programmes like Skype can ensure that business can carry on large scale as in normal days.
CONCLUSION It has been summarized that housing market means demand and supply for houses in the particular country. The housing market includes demand of house and its supply, house prices, government intervention, interest rates, mortgage industry and rented sector. It has been analyzed that housing market of UK has influence over wider economy. It has been concluded from the above report that UK housing market has faced dramatic changes over the period of last ten years. The average price of the houses also gets changes during the year 2009 to 2019. It has been summarized that economic determinates influence the housing prices in UK. It has been determined that government polices impact the prices of house. As per the above analysis it has been determined that houses prices have drop due to thecorona virus. There is 3% dip in all over the UK and in London it is 2% due tocorona virusin housing sector.
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REFERENCES Books and Journal Adesiyan, B., 2016. Exploring leadership strategies to maximize profitability in the Nigerian housing sector. Baptista, R., Farmer, J.D. and Uluc, A., 2016. Macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market. Best, M.C. and Kleven, H.J., 2018. Housing market responses to transaction taxes: Evidence from notches and stimulus in the UK.The Review of Economic Studies.85(1).pp.157- 193. Čepel, M., Stasiukynas, A. and Dvorský, J., 2018. Business environment quality index in the SME segment.Journal of Competitiveness. Cook, S. and Watson, D., 2016. A new perspective on the ripple effect in the UK housing market:Comovement,cyclicalsubsamplesandalternativeindices.UrbanStudies. 53(14).pp.3048-3062. Czischke, D. and van Bortel, G., 2018. An exploration of concepts and polices on ‘affordable housing’in England, Italy, Poland and The Netherlands.Journal of Housing and the Built Environment.pp.1-21. Duvier, C., Neagu, D. and Dickens, D., 2018. Data quality challenges in the UK social housing sector.International Journal of Information Management.38(1).pp.196-200. Fernandes, N., 2020. Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy.Available at SSRN 3557504. Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z. and Agha, R., 2020. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus and COVID-19 pandemic: a review.International Journal of Surgery. Xuesong, L., 2018. It’s vital to improve business environment.China daily.p.9.
Online UKHousePriceIndex,2019.[Online]Availablethrough:< https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/ june2019 > The analysis of the determinants of housing prices, 2017. [Online] Available through :< https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314143042_The_analysis_of_the_determinants _of_housing_prices#:~:text=The%20results%20showed%20that%20inflation,prices %20in%20the%20previous%20period.>