Counter Terrorism & Intelligence Analysis

This article discusses the threat of ISIS and how intelligence assets like CIA, FBI, and Interpol can work together to provide actionable intelligence. It also provides recommendations to law enforcement agencies to counter the threat of ISIS.

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Counter Terrorism & Intelligence Analysis
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Contents
1. Understanding the Threat of ISIS.......................................................................................2
Background of ISIS:...............................................................................................................2
How ISIS is a threat to America:...........................................................................................2
2. Intelligence Assets and Capability......................................................................................4
Central Intelligence Agency:..................................................................................................4
Federal Bureau of Investigation:............................................................................................4
Interpol:..................................................................................................................................5
How the three intelligence assets can work together to provide a better understanding of
the threat:................................................................................................................................5
3. Request for Intelligence..................................................................................................6
From CIA:..............................................................................................................................6
From Interpol:........................................................................................................................7
From FBI:...............................................................................................................................8
4. DHS Recommendations to Law Enforcement Agencies....................................................8
Focusing on all types of threats posed by ISIS (domestic and foreign):................................8
Mobilizing other Intelligence Agencies to stop ISIS.............................................................9
References:...............................................................................................................................11

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1. Understanding the Threat of ISIS
Background of ISIS:
Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) is also known as Islamic State of Iraq and
Levant (ISIL) or Islamic State (IS) or by the acronym ‘Daesh’. They have been labelled as a
terrorist organization by the United Nations and is mainly comprised of the Salafi group of
Jihadist, a fundamentalist faction from Iraq and Syria following the Sunni doctrine called
Salafi. They have been accused by International organizations of human rights abuses, war
crimes and ethnic cleansing (cia.gov, 2018). ISIS started as a faction of Al Qaeda based in
Iraq where they played a key role in the Iraqi insurgency after it was invaded in 2003 by
United States and its allies. After ceasing control over several provinces in the west and north
of Iraq and declared themselves as a ‘Caliphate’with the name Islamic State. The ISIS later
expanded to the eastern part of Syria by 2015, as some of the members from the Free Syrian
Army started to join ISIS (Gray, 2014; wilsoncenter.org, 2018).
In the areas under the control of ISIS, a strict Sharia law was followed, that shunned
every form of modernism, and subjected its people to immense cruelty. Harshest of
punishments were doled out to anyone not following their laws, and the faction was actively
involved in recruiting mercenaries to terrorize sits neighborhood regions, in the attempt to
destabilize them and spread its control even further (Blanchard & Humud, 2018). By 2014,
ISIS became independent of Al Qaida because of conflicts between Abu Bakr AL Baghdadi
who was the leader of ISIS and Al Zawahiri from the leadership of Al Qaida. ISIS wanted to
take a more aggressive approach in its actions (Mazzetti et al., 2017; Archick et al., 2015).
How ISIS is a threat to America:

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ISIS follows a radical Islamic view of the world that is based on the concepts of sharia
(the word of god) and jihad (holy war) against all infidels and apostates. The group’s
ambition is to develop an Islamic control over the world and fight against the influence of
western culture (Mazzetti et al., 2017). They promote religious violence and ethnic cleansing
and superiority of Islam over other religions. It also condemns any muslim who does not
follow the scripture as infidels and apostates and considers people from the Shia Islamic
Group as unworthy. Adopting the ‘Seal of Muhammed’ on their flag clearly shows their
intentions to restore the system of caliphate that existed in the early Islamic ages, and
according to some authors, their ideologies have been significantly influenced by the
ideologies of the post Ottomanic Islamic group called the Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt
in the 1920’s (bbc.com, 2018). Since its formation ISIS have been engaged in the recruitment
of fighters from all over the world through its aggressive propaganda, many of these recruits
are from the western countries. These ‘radicalized’ individuals trained by ISIS are then used
to execute terrorist plots across the western countries. Many of such terrorist attacks have
been targeted for cities in the United States, where different American Citizens claiming
allegiance to the ISIS have planned shootouts or bombings. These activities have
significantly affected the homeland security in United States, as well the safety of thousands
of Americans living abroad in regions under the influence of ISIS and their operatives
(Humud et al., 2018). Since ISIS has singled our United States and United Kingdom as the
main targets for their ‘Jihad’, it makes this organization particularly threat to the peace of
these nations. Some of the most prominent activities of the ISIS includes ethnic cleansing,
abductions, extortions and human trafficking, apart from organizing terrorist activities in
different western countries and publicly executing their prisoners (abcnews.go.com, 2015;
cbsnews.com, 2018). They finance themselves primarily through extortions, smuggling or

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arms and historic artifacts and selling oil produced in the areas under their control to fund
their terrorist activities (Humud et al., 2015).
2. Intelligence Assets and Capability
Three Intelligence Assets that can provide actionable intelligence on ISIS can include:
Central Intelligence Agency:
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is a foreign intelligence agency operated by
the US Federal Government. The organization has the task of collecting; processing and
analyzing intelligence data related to national security from around the world using human
intelligence and is a primary member of the US Intelligence Community (cia.gov, 2018;
Pedlow & Welzenbach, 2016). The organization reports to the Director Of national
Intelligence and provides intelligence to the US President and Cabinet. The agency is
capable of covert intelligence operations through which they can collect information of
critical intelligence on national security and have been involved in several espionage as well
as training of mercenaries abroad to fight terrorism (Lowenthal, 2016). He type of
intelligence information gathered by the agency includes intelligence data from overseas on
counter terrorism, non proliferation and weapons of mass destruction, counter intelligence,
cyber intelligence and warning from US leaders in overseas events (Mazzetti et al., 2017;
Archick et al., 2015).
Federal Bureau of Investigation:
The federal Bureau of Investigation is a domestic intelligence agency in US, acting as
the primary law enforcement agency in the country, working under the US Department of
Justice and a member of US Intelligence Community reporting to the Director of National
Intelligence and Attorney General of US (fbi.gov, 2018). The function of the FBI includes

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protecting US from terrorist attacks, espionage, foreign intelligence operations and cyber
attacks. They are highly capable of collecting intelligence data within US, conduct
surveillance and investigations within the country and also coordinate with other intelligence
agencies from time to time. The type of data gathered by the agency is primarily domestic
data related to national security (Ronczkowski, 2017).
Interpol:
Interpol is the abbreviation for International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) is
an international police agency with representatives from more than 100 nations and is
focused on the maintenance of public safety and stopping international; crimes like violations
of human rights, crimes against humanity, genocide, human trafficking, smuggling of
weapons and war crimes (interpol.int, 2018). The agency helps to coordinate police agencies
from various countries, providing a central repository of international police records in order
to monitor and prevent crimes. Their database mainly comprises of police records and
counter, profiles of known criminals as well as counter intelligence records which can be
tracked across borders thereby helping to track known terrorists (Stock, 2017).
How the three intelligence assets can work together to provide a better understanding of
the threat:
Intelligence data gathered from CIA, FBI and Interpol can be used to generate
actionable intelligence on ISIS from both outside USA as well as within the country. CIA can
be actively involved in covert surveillance and espionage of ISIS related targets in both Syria
and Iraq from where they primarily operate (Blanchard & Humud, 2018; Humud et al., 2015).
The Interpol can also provide information on known criminals who are engaged by the ISIS
as their fighters and mercenaries, and follow their movement across western nations and
especially to US. Interpol can also help to coordinate the intelligence data from other

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agencies to develop an actionable intelligence on ISIS. The FBI can be involved in the home
front in the collection and analysis of domestic intelligence data, informed by both CIA and
Interpol on possible domestic security information which can help them to identify and
prevent domestic terrorist acts (Lowenthal, 2016; Van Buren, 2015).
3. Request for Intelligence
The following intelligence data needs to be gathered from the three intelligence
agencies in order to identify future intelligence requirements:
From CIA:
Data on terrorist activities:
Data on various terrorist activities across the world that are linked to ISIS can provide
an information on how active they are and thus to assess their strengths and strategies which
can help the FBI and Homeland Security to be prepared by any threats to US citizens by ISIS
(Bash, 2017).
Data on weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons:
This can help the intelligence agencies to analyze whether ISIS has any WMD in their
arsenal, and thus understand any possibility of ISIS using such weapons in their terrorist
activities (Jones, 2015).
Cyber Intelligence data:
This data can be used for the surveillance and monitoring of the online
communication between ISIS operatives across the world and thus uncover and prevent any
terrorist plots by them (Bash, 2017).
Counterintelligence and Counter terrorism intelligence:

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CIA can also provide counterintelligence and counter terrorism data on ISIS from
other countries to further develop understanding on the terrorist organization and their
activities (Pedlow & Welzenbach, 2016).
From Interpol:
The following data from the Interpol can also provide vital insights into the operations
of ISIS across the world:
Crimes against humanity:
Crimes against humanity such as genocide and ethnic cleansing done by the ISIS
around the world can help to understand the extent of the actions of the organizations and
how it impacts the global security and also understand the extent to which they pose a threat
to other countries, especially USA (Stock, 2017).
Human Trafficking:
ISIS have also been involved in human trafficking in many parts of the world, often
with support from other terrorist organizations as seen in the case of Boko Haram from
Nigeria who abducted several schoolgirls from Nigeria and selling them off to ISIS. This can
also help to understand the extent to which their influence exists in the world.
Terrorists:
Data on known terrorists can also be collected and surveyed by the Interpol which can
provide information related to their movement across various countries, especially USA and
its allies and thus help to be prepared for any possible terrorist plots (Van Buren, 2015).
Weapons Smuggling:

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Information of illegal weapons leaving or entering conflict zones can also help to
monitor the risks of terrorism, and also prevent any possible terrorist threats (Van Buren,
2015).
From FBI:
Domestic Incidents:
Information on domestic security incidents that might be related to ISIS can help to
analyze the ISIS operations in the country and thus understand their impact within USA.
Other security incidents that might be related to ISIS operatives in USA can also be used to
understand their movement in the country and prevent any terrorist activities (Humud et al.,
2015).
Communication Surveillance:
CIA can also provide intelligence on communication between ISIS operatives within
the country through communication surveillance strategies. This can include both digital as
well as physical data by intercepting suspicious communication messages in US and
analyzing its link to ISIS or to identify a risk of a terrorist attack in US (Lowenthal, 2016;
Ronczkowski, 2016).
4. DHS Recommendations to Law Enforcement Agencies
Based on the information above two important recommendations can be made for the
Law Enforcement Agencies in US that can allow them to counter the threat posed by ISIS to
America and Americans:
Focusing on all types of threats posed by ISIS (domestic and foreign):

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It is vital to follow all types of terrorist activities of ISIS and its factions across the
world to understand their current trajectory and modus operandi. It is equally important that
the emergent threats posed by the organization are also taken into consideration since ISIS
always tries to use new strategies and methods. It is therefore necessary that all forms of
potential terrorist attacks across the world using various types of weapons such as explosives,
lethal weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons as well as cyber attacks should be
monitored (Gray, 2014). This can also provide important counter terrorism intelligence to the
homeland security agencies which can be used to identify and prevent future attacks
(abcnews.go.com, 2015; cbsnews.com, 2018; Gray, 2014).
The law enforcement agencies can also use the intelligence from CIA, FBI and
Interpol to create a profile of potential ISIS operatives, and create a system of warning
whenever known ISIS operatives enter the country. Any individuals or groups in US that
claims allegiance to ISIS should also be closely monitored for any suspicious activities along
with their associated to understand if they are involved in any terrorist plots in the homeland.
Additionally, it is also vital that the law enforcement agencies share useful intelligence with
other security agencies, and mobilize national security agencies to prevent any possible
security incidents planned by the ISIS. It can also be useful for the intelligence agencies to
follow the recruitment of operatives by ISIS, identifying any American citizen who might
have joined the ISIS forces (Archick et al., 2015; Blanchard & Humud, 2018).
Mobilizing other Intelligence Agencies to stop ISIS
Law Enforcement Agencies in US can also play a key role in the mobilization of other
intelligence agencies both within and outside USA, by sharing the intelligence related to ISIS
and their operations in order to disrupt their activities both in USA and abroad and prevent
them to coordinate their terrorist plots between different countries, a strategy that is

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significantly used by ISIS. Coordinating with other security and intelligence agencies across
the world such as Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and Defense Intelligence of UK, Mossad
of Israel, Iraqi National Intelligence Service of Iraq and Military Intelligence Service of Syria
would also help to gather and coordinate intelligence related to ISIS from the conflict
regions. Such intelligence can be useful for the Law Enforcement Agencies to identify
potential of an impact for security incidents caused by SISI abroad on US national security
(abcnews.go.com, 2015; cbsnews.com). It can also recommended that the federal law
enforcement agencies coordinate with the state police whenever a security threat has been
identified and develop a coordinated action plan to prevent its occurrence. This would require
both the federal and state law enforcement agencies to modify their operations and work
together in the same jurisdictions in order to prevent security risks in the country (Blanchard
& Humud, 2018).

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References:
abcnews.go.com. (2015). ISIS trail of Terror | Is ISIS a Threat to the U.S.?. Retrieved from
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/fullpage/isis-trail-terror-isis-threat-us-25053190
Archick,, K., Belkin, P., Blanchard, C., Humud, C., & Mix, D. (2015). European Fighters in
Syria and Iraq: Assessments, Responses, and Issues for the United States. Retrieved
from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44003.pdf
Bash, J. (2017). The Plan to Defeat ISIS: Key Decisions and Considerations. Hampton Roads
International Security Quarterly, 1.
bbc.com. (2018). The war against ‘Islamic State’ in maps and charts. Retrieved from
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034
Blanchard, C., & Humud, C. (2018). The Islamic State and U.S. Policy. Retrieved from
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R43612.pdf
cbsnews.com. (2018). The fight against ISIS - CBS News. Retrieved from
http://www.cbsnews.com/isis/
cia.gov. (2018). Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/index.html
cia.gov. (2018). The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2264.html
fbi.gov. (2018). Federal Bureau of Investigation. Retrieved from https://www.fbi.gov/
Gray, J. (2014). Isis: A thoroughly modern caliphate. Retrieved from
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28246732

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Humud, C., Blanchard, C., & Nikitin, M. (2018). Armed Confl ict in Syria: Overview and
U.S. Response. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf
Humud, C., Pirog, R., & Rosen, L. (2015). Islamic State Financing and U.S. Policy
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interpol.int. (2018). INTERPOL. Retrieved from https://www.interpol.int/
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Lowenthal, M. M. (2016). Intelligence: From secrets to policy. CQ press.
Mazzetti,, M., Goldman, A., & Schmidt, M. (2017). Behind the Sudden Death of a $1 Billion
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trump.html
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Ronczkowski, M. R. (2017). Terrorism and organized hate crime: Intelligence gathering,
analysis and investigations. CRC press.
Stock, J. (2017, May). Breaking the Foreign Terrorist Fighter Cycle: an INTERPOL
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Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG.
Van Buren, P. (2015). Stopping ISIS: Follow the money. Guardian (Sydney), (1712), 8.
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