BUS-7120 V2: Business Financial Systems - Analysis of Microsoft's Financial Position
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This document provides an analysis of Microsoft's financial position from a microeconomic and macroeconomic point of view. It includes conducting ratio analysis, discussing demand characteristics, and evaluating the current macroeconomic situation of the US.
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Running head:BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS BUS-7120 V2: Business Financial Systems Name of the Student: Name of the University: Author’s Note: Course ID:
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1BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Table of Contents Part I: Choosing the adequate organization, while providing relevant information regarding the business, product, operational time and main location....................................................................2 Part II: Assessing the operations of the organization from a microeconomic point of view, while discussing its demand characteristics..............................................................................................3 PartIII:EvaluatingthecurrentmacroeconomicsituationsofUS,whilediscussingthe implications of the actions taken by the government......................................................................4 Part IV: Conducting ratio analysis of the company.........................................................................5 Part V: Creating proforma income statement for the company, while detecting its EPS for the next fiscal year.................................................................................................................................9 Part VI: Explaining about beta and calculating the CAPM value of the organization..................10 Part VII: Detecting the growth rate of the organization by using the valuation model.................11 Part VIII: Providing several reasons behind the difference between the calculated growth and the growth provided in growth estimates............................................................................................11 Part IX: Providing reasons behind the decision of becoming the CFO of the organization..........12 References and Bibliography:........................................................................................................13
2BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS PartI:Choosingtheadequateorganization,whileprovidingrelevantinformation regarding the business, product, operational time and main location Microsoft has been one of the major organizations in US who has generated constant growth in their share price. In addition, investors believe that Microsoft is one of the safest investment havens, which can help them increase their return from investment. Microsoft has been operating since 1975, where it was founded in New Mexico USA. The company has been one the major contributors in the industry of computer software and hardware, which has allowed the organization to become one of the major contributions in the computer industry (Microsoft.com, 2019). The mainoperationsof theMicrosoft are toprovide computer-basedproductsto individual consumers and companies all around the world. The company has been providing products such as windows, office, servers, skype, Visual Studio, Xbox, Dynamics and list of other software. The company has also been providing adequate services such as Office 365, Windows Store, Windows Update, Outlook, LinkedIn, Bing and Azure. The company has been operating from New Mexico, where the current headquarters is in Redmond, Washington USA. The other aspects of the organization are the rising popularity of computer components all around the world that has increased profits and demand of the products produced by Microsoft.Bothservicesandproductsadequatelydemandedbytheretailandcorporate customers to utilize them to increase their efficiency. Microsoft is also one of the largest producers of corporate security products and servers, which is highly demanded by the corporate world. The super computers and high-end machines products has allowed Microsoft to increase their exposure in corporate world (Microsoft.com, 2019).
3BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Part II: Assessing the operations of the organization from a microeconomic point of view, while discussing its demand characteristics Afteranalyzingthe demand characteristics of Microsoft it could be identified that the organizationhas a huge customer base which is distributed around the world. The products and services offered by theorganizationare used adequately by maximum of the computing world. Microsoft has customer base from normal individuals to high end corporate MNCs, as the organizationprovides all range of products and services to its customers.Moreover, the major competition of Microsoft is in different sectors, which compare comprises of companies such as Apple Inc., IBM, Ericsson and other software providing company. The competition of Microsoft is a relatively high as maximum of the customer that is targeted by its competitors is related to corporate field and normal individuals. Apple Inc. relatively provides the intense competition, as Microsoft generates adequate revenues from computer sales around the world (Microsoft.com, 2019). The cost factors of the organization are adequately evaluated from its financial report, where both variable and fixed costs are adequately insured by the organization. The major fixed cost that is conducted by the Microsoft is from salary expenses, administrative expenses, and research expenses that need to be conducted by the management to maintain adequate operations. Moreover, the variable cost comprises of the cost of sales that needs to be incurred by the organization to produce the relevant products for sale. From the valuation of Microsoft annual report it will be identified that the organization is currently under oligopoly market, where some of the companies are controlling the maximum market share of the industry.
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4BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Part III: Evaluating the current macroeconomic situations of US, while discussing the implications of the actions taken by the government The current Macroeconomic conditions of US is relatively volatile, as the government has come out from recent shutdown, which mainly wiped out maximum of the GDP is that was gained during the past fiscal year. However, the shutdown of the government has not changed the economist point of view for the growing US market, which will increase the economic conditions of the country. The economist directly belief the country is currently in economic boom, which resulted in higher growth, prospects and pushed the market index to a higher level. Moreover, the decision that has been made by the Trump government has relatively highlighted the progress that was being made by the corporation in USA, where adequate production in corporate tax rate has boosted the company's profits (Taxfoundation.org, 2018). The anticipated growth rate of United States For 2019 is a relatively at the levels of 3.5%, which is mainly evaluated to grow to 3.6% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021 (Thebalance.com, 2019). This economic growth rate eventually allows the organization in the country to progress rapidly and increase the revenues in the long run. The current proposal of the President is relatively not clear, where he aims only to make America great again but no adequate or policies have been implemented by the US government. The decisions made by the government has improved the profitability conditions of Microsoft as corporate tax level has been reduced, which has allowed the company to improve its retained income. However, there is no clear understanding of the future economic condition of USA until President Donald Trump is in charge of the country and government.
5BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Part IV: Conducting ratio analysis of the company Gross Profit Margin Sl NoparticularGross ProfitSalesGross Profit Margin 1201872,00711036065.25% 22017623109657164.52% 32016583749115464.04% Operating Profit Margin Sl Noparticular Operating ProfitSalesOperating Profit Margin 120183505811036031.77% 22017290259657130.06% 32016260789115428.61% Net Profit Margin Sl NoparticularNet ProfitSalesNet Profit Margin 120181657111036015.02% 22017254899657126.39% 32016205399115422.53% The above figure provides adequate information regarding the profitability conditions of Microsoft from 2016 to 2018. The gross profit margin of the organization has a relatively improve from the levels of 64.04% in 2016 to 65.25% in 2018, which indicate the positive attributes to was the low cost of sales in incurred by the management. Moreover, adequate improvements in the operating profit margin of the organization are also seen by the values has increased from the levels of 28.61% in 2016 to 31.77% in 2018. However, adequate decline in net profit margin of the company has been witness in 2018, where the values have declined from 22.53% in 2016 to 15.02% in 2018. The major decline in net profit margin of the organization
6BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS was due to the high levels of tax provisions that were conducted by Microsoft during the financial year of 2018 (Vogel, 2014). Current Ratio Sl NoparticularCurrent AssetCurrent LiabiltiesCurrent Ratio 12018169662584882.90 22017162696557452.92 32016139660593572.35 Quick ratio Sl NoparticularQuick AssetCurrent LiabiltiesQuick Ratio 12018167000584882.86 22017160515557452.88 32016137409593572.31 The above figure provides all the relevant information regarding the liquidity ratio of Microsoft where both the current ratio and quick ratio has been calculated from 2016 to 2018. The calculation directly provides all the relevant information regarding the current ratio of Microsoft, which has increased over the period of 3 years. The current ratio of the company has increased from 2.35 in 2016 to 2.90 in 2018. On the other hand, adequate increment in quick ratio of the company has also been witness, where the values have increased from 2.31 in 2016 to 2.86 in 2018. However, from the valuation it could be understood that there is no difference between both current ratio and quick ratio of Microsoft, as the organization does not need high inventory to support it sales. The company’s revenue is adequately generated from both hardware’sandsoftware’s,whichrelativelyreducestheirinventorystock(Williams& Dobelman, 2017). Total Debt-Equity Ratio Sl NoparticularTotal DebtEquityTotal Debt-Equity Ratio 1201876,240827180.92
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7BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS 2201783,463877110.95 3201647,455719970.66 Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio Sl NoparticularLong Term DebtEquityDebt-Equity Ratio 1201872242827180.87 2201776073877110.87 3201640557719970.56 Asset Turnover Ratio Sl NoparticularAssetSalesAsset Turnover Ratio 120182588481103600.43 22017250312965710.39 32016193468911540.47 The above figure provides all the relevant information regarding the current solvency condition of Microsoft. In addition, adequate ratios regarding the current financial position of Microsoft is evaluated with the help of total debt-equity ratio, long term debt-equity ratio and asset turnover ratio. The increment in debt accumulation by the organization has relatively increased over the past three fiscal years, which resulted in the increment in debt-to-equity ratio from 0.66 in 2016 to 0.92 in 2018. Furthermore, the continuous accumulation of long term debt has also increased the values of long term debt- equity ratio from 0.56 in 2016 to 0.87 in 2018. just directly indicates that Microsoft has increased its overall exposure in debt to support operations, which in turn has reduced the solvency conditions of the organization. From the further evaluation, it is detected that the Asset turnover ratio of the organization has also declined from the levels of 0.47 in 2016 to 0.43 in 2018, which is the result from the law sales in comparison to the assets that has been accumulated by the management (Kou, Peng & Wang, 2014).
8BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Debtor Turnover Ratio Sl NoparticularDebtorSalesDebtor Turnover Ratio 1201826481 11036 04.17 2201722431965714.31 3201618277911544.99 Inventory Turnover Ratio Sl NoparticularInventorySalesInventory Turnover Ratio 120182662 11036 041.46 2201721819657144.28 3201622519115440.49 Payable Turnover Ratio Sl NoparticularPayableSalesPayable Turnover Ratio 120188617 11036 012.81 2201773909657113.07 3201668989115413.21 Cash Conversion Cycle Sl Noparticula r Receivable DaysInventory DaysPayable DaysCash Conversion Cycle 1201887.588.8028.5067.89 2201784.788.2427.9365.09 3201673.189.0127.6254.58 The above table provides all the information regarding the cash conversion cycle of Microsoft from 2016 to 2018. From the evaluation, it is understood that the cash conversion cycle of Microsoft is relatively increased from the levels of 54.58 in 2016 to 67.89, which indicate slow performance of the company in converting its sales into cash. Moreover, the annual report of Microsoft direction indicated that its debt turnover ratio has reduced, while both the
9BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS inventory turnover ratio and payable turnover ratio has increased during the past three fiscal years. The cash conversion conditions of Microsoft have declined, as the company is not able to convert its overall inventory and credit sales into cash (Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw, 2014). Part V: Creating proforma income statement for the company, while detecting its EPS for the next fiscal year Year Ended June30, '(In millions, except per share amounts)2019 Revenue: Product63,155 Service and other63,644 Total revenue1,21,518 Cost of revenue: Product14,378 Service and other28,466 Total cost of revenue41,510 Gross margin80,038 Research and development16,324 Sales and marketing19,096 General and administrative4,856 Impairment and restructuring Operating income40,682 Other income (expense), net2,557 Income before income taxes43,515 Provision for income taxes53,501 Net income15,669 No of shares7,676 EPS15,669 / 7,676 EPS2.04 The above table provides the adequate proforma income statement, which is developed for Microsoft for the financial year of 2019. This proforma income statement has been developed
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10BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS with the help of adequate growth rate, which is derived from the values of the income statement through 2016 to 2018. Therefore, the values of the income statement have been anticipated to determine the level of net income that will be generated by the organization over the financial year of 2019. This relatively helps in identifying the levels of EPS, which is anticipated to be at the levels of 2.04 in 2019. This income statement has been created for identifying the level of earnings per share for the financial year of 2019, which is used for further calculation (Almamy, Aston & Ngwa, 2016). Part VI: Explaining about beta and calculating the CAPM value of the organization ParticularsValue Beta1.03 Risk free rate2.50% Marketrisk premium 8.00% CAPM2.50%+1.03*(8%-2.50%) CAPM8.17% The current beta level that is detected for Microsoft organization is at the levels of 1.03, whichisderivedfrom theYahoo Financewebsite.Thecurrent betalevelof Microsoft organization directly indicates that the risk contributions of the organization are relatively high. The beta levels of the organization are relatively high and do not make sense in light of the previous discussion. The previous discussion directly highlighted of positive attributes of the market conditions and the company’s current market position. The beta values has directly highlighted that the company’s current position is relatively risky which is the main reason why volatility in share price is been witness. However, the previous discussion directly indicated that the current conditions of the organization are relatively positive where both macro and micro
11BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS condition has indicated a positive attributes for Microsoft. Therefore, the high level of risk that is endured by Microsoft is not being anticipated as per their beta values. The above table provides adequate information regarding the calculated CAPM value for Microsoft, which is relatively at the levels of 8.17%. This value is adequately derived from the CAPM formula, which helps in determining the required rate of return of an organization (Barberis et al., 2015). Part VII: Detecting the growth rate of the organization by using the valuation model ParticularsValue K8.17% P0110.97 D12.04 Growth rate 8.17%-(110.97/2.04) Growth rate 6.33% The above table provides adequate information regarding the growth rate, which is calculated for Microsoft. The Valuation model formula has been used for detecting the actual growth rate of Microsoft for the financial year of 2019, which is calculated at the levels of 6.33%. Part VIII: Providing several reasons behind the difference between the calculated growth and the growth provided in growth estimates The calculated growth rate is at the levels of 6.33%, while the growth estimate from Yahoo Finance is at the levels of 14.03% (Finance.yahoo.com, 2019). There is significant difference between both the calculated and estimated growth rate of Microsoft. However, this difference in growth rate is due to the anticipation that has been conducted for the organization
12BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS over the period of time. The growth rate that has been calculated mainly comprises of 1year financial statement, where the anticipation of the future income has been conducted for only one year. On the other hand, the estimated growth rate that has been gathered from Yahoo Finance mainly comprises of 5 year anticipated growth rate of Microsoft. This difference in the comparison level is the main reason behind the difference between the two growth rates. Part IX: Providing reasons behind the decision of becoming the CFO of the organization Yes, I would want to be the CFO of Microsoft, as the company's operations have improved over the financial year, while its debt accumulation has also increased. Being the CFO of Microsoft would eventually allow me to correct its current debt-equity combination and reduce any occurrence of insolvency in the long run. The company has adequate liquidity ratio, profitability ratio, and cash conversion cycle, which can support the management in making adequate decision regarding it debt accumulation.
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13BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS References and Bibliography: Almamy, J., Aston, J., & Ngwa, L. N. (2016). An evaluation of Altman's Z-score using cash flow ratio to predict corporate failure amid the recent financial crisis: Evidence from the UK.Journal of Corporate Finance,36, 278-285. Altman, E. I., Iwanicz‐Drozdowska, M., Laitinen, E. K., & Suvas, A. (2017). Financial distress prediction in an international context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman's Z‐ score model.Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting,28(2), 131- 171. Barberis, N., Greenwood, R., Jin, L., & Shleifer, A. (2015). X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model.Journal of financial economics,115(1), 1-24. Finance.yahoo.com.(2019).Finance.yahoo.com.Retrieved24February2019,from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis?p=MSFT Golez, B. (2014). Expected returns and dividend growth rates implied by derivative markets.The Review of Financial Studies,27(3), 790-822. Kisman, Z., & Restiyanita, S. (2015). M. The Validity of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in Predicting the Return of Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange.American Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Vol,1, 184- 189. Kou, G., Peng, Y., & Wang, G. (2014). Evaluation of clustering algorithms for financial risk analysis using MCDM methods.Information Sciences,275, 1-12.
14BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Laubach, T., & Williams, J. C. (2016). Measuring the natural rate of interest redux.Business Economics,51(2), 57-67. Lucas Jr, R. E., & Moll, B. (2014). Knowledge growth and the allocation of time.Journal of Political Economy,122(1), 1-51. Microsoft.com.(2019).Microsoft.com.Retrieved24February2019,from https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/annual-reports.aspx Omar, N., Koya, R. K., Sanusi, Z. M., & Shafie, N. A. (2014). Financial statement fraud: A case examination using Beneish model and ratio analysis.International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance,5(2), 184. Robinson, T. R., Henry, E., Pirie, W. L., & Broihahn, M. A. (2015).International financial statement analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Taxfoundation.org.(2018).TaxFoundation.Retrieved24February2019,from https://taxfoundation.org/us-corporate-income-tax-more-competitive/ Thebalance.com.(2019).TheBalance.Retrieved24February2019,from https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669 Vogel,H.L.(2014).Entertainmentindustryeconomics:Aguideforfinancialanalysis. Cambridge University Press. Wahlen, J., Baginski, S., & Bradshaw, M. (2014).Financial reporting, financial statement analysis and valuation. Nelson Education.
15BUS-7120 V2: BUSINESS FINANCIAL SYSTEMS Williams, E. E., & Dobelman, J. A. (2017). Financial statement analysis.World Scientific Book Chapters, 109-169.