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The article discusses the investment style of Peter Lynch and the future of cryptocurrencies. It also highlights the risks associated with cryptocurrencies. Additionally, it provides a price yield curve for a zero coupon bond at different interest rates.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS QUESTION1(1).............................................................................................................................................2 INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................2 QUESTION1(2).............................................................................................................................................5 INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................5 TYPES OF CRYPTOCURRENCY OTHER THAN BITCOIN...................................................................................5 PROBLEM AND RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH CRYPTOCURRENCIES..................................................................7 Question 2 Part 1.........................................................................................................................................8 Generate the price yield curve for a zero coupon bond at different interest rate...................................8 Question 2 Part 2.........................................................................................................................................8 Generate the bonds price yield curve using annual yield ranging from 5% to 10% and differing by 0.5% .................................................................................................................................................................8 Question 2 Part 3.........................................................................................................................................9 Question 3 Part 1.........................................................................................................................................9 Question 3 Part 2.......................................................................................................................................10 Question 3 Part 3.......................................................................................................................................12 Bibliography...............................................................................................................................................13
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QUESTION1(1) โI have never said ,if you go the mall ,see a star bucks and say itโs a good coffee, you should call Fidelity brokerage and buy the stock โCritically appraise the misunderstanding of peter Lynchโs investment style providing illustrative figures where appropriate. INTRODUCTION Peter Lynch is one of the greatest known investors of all time. He was a manager of the Magellan fund at the major brokerage fidelity. In the year 1977 and at the age 33, he took over the Magellan fund and retires in the year 1990, and ran the fund for 13 years.(Anon., n.d.)His stylesof investment are always adaptive and favourable but Lynch has always stressed on that you should understand what you have and own. Lynch investment strategy beat almost all mutual fund houses during the last five years of his service. As29.2%, return is fantastic for public. He also has a keen interest in educating people about investment. Despite his respected career both as a fund manager and an author, his basic investment strategy are quite simple and can be illustrated into four parts: A.Do youโre Research:Before investing in any company one should research and this is a tireless and time-consuming job for Lynch when he was a portfolio manager as this is a well-defined quote โThe person that turns over the most rocks wins the game. And thatโs always been my philosophy.โ โ Peter Lynch. By analyzing many stocks industry wise, geographic region wise and through different segments, Lynch maximized the profit with his findings of prospects in investment. For maximizing investment returns, he looked at all prospects of financial markets. (Anon., 2018) Research based report is very difficult for an individual investors to prepare and research is a very important component for a good investment strategy and one has t climb the rock for analyzing on better stocks. It is believed by Peter Lynch that everyone is intellectually capable of investing money in stock market. It is said, โEveryone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.โ โ Peter Lynch. The main goal is generally to identify a high quality stock with strong growth prospects. Lynch stressed on businesses that do not require much knowledge. B.Understand the importance of diversification:Portfolio managed by Lynch was quite immense. More than 1000 individual stock positions was holed by Magellan fund till Lynch career .Being an
investment professional he has a diversified portfolio based on the earning prospects of the company namely ๏ทFast Growers: Growth of earning between 20% and 50% ๏ทStalwarts: Companies with huge billion sales and earning range between 10% to 20%. ๏ทSlow Growers: Companies had an earning range below 10% but pay good dividend. Stalwarts and slow Growers provide a return, which is stable according to Lynch. In order to reduce the volatility Lynch does not buy stock which has less compelling Opportunity. The stock picking ability of Lynch with the idea of choosing good quality stock make him owned large number of stocks.(Anon., 2018) C.Be patient:according to Lynch, investors who invest money in stock market for long term have many advantages over those investors who invest it for short term. Investment for long term makes you defer your capital gain tax with low brokerage and greater sustainability power to withstand in market. Through patience and long-term investment, one can stand economic recessions. Holding stocks whose price had already been raised since investment is one of the Lynch most important aspect. According to Lynch, the performance of stock is not based on the quarterly results, which motivate the investors to hold it for long term. D.Invest in what you Know:One of the biggest lesson from Lynch is that one should invest in the company in which he has overall knowledge and understanding One the most important quality of his is investing in a stock as a consumer and not as a fund manager as he knows that consumers are the backbone of the economy. While investing in a particular stock he always think as a consumer rather than a fund house manager.(Anon., 2018)
QUESTION1 (2) Warren Buffet says Bit coin โDefinitely come to a bad ending โCritically assess whether crypt currencies hold any future to join the mainstream asset class or they are just going to be popular in markets that have zero interest growth such as south Korea and Japan. INTRODUCTION Crypto currencies are primarily the same as what we called as electronic money โlike PayPal or WebMoney.It acts as a medium of exchange it has a well built cryptography to firm all the financial transactions ,regulate if any creation of additional units and check any assets transfer.Cryptocurrency is one kind of digital currency, virtualcurrency or alternative currency. Itdoes not have a centralized electronic control but uses a decentralized electronic control. The decentralized works as a strong chain through ledger technology that acts as a strong database for financial transaction to public.(Anon., n.d.) TYPES OF CRYPTOCURRENCY OTHER THAN BITCOIN There are six most important crypto currency other than Bitcoin is: A.Litecoin (LTC): It is launched in the year 2011 and it is among the beginning currency followed by Bitcoin and is termed as โsilver to Bitcoinsgoldโ. Charlie Lee was the one who created it .It is not controlled by any central authority and it is based on a global payment network. With the help of CPU the work of โscryptโ is decoded. Litecoin is quite similar to Bitcoin as it has also same features as transaction confirmation faster, faster rate of block generation. There is now growing number of seller who accepts Litecoin.(Anon., 2018) B.Ethereum:It is launched in the year 2015; it uses decentralized software that uses both smart contracts and Distributed Applications to run without any obstacle like fraud, error, any third party interruption. Before the launched of Ethereal, ether was launched in presale and had received a massive response. It can be used to decentralize; codify. It has $41.4 billion market capitalization next to Bitcoin. As of today June 2018 it has a market capitalization of $47.47 billion and on June 21 it closed to $525.77.(Anon., 2018)
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C.ZCash: It is launched in the year 2016.This currency is quite promising as Bitcoin defines as http for money, ZCash is like https. It offers a transparency in its transactions. WhileLitecoin and Etherum record all its financial transactions on a blockchain while ZCash assures you greater security and confidentiality. It allows all the transaction content to be encrypted by the user using technique known as cryptographic. As of now June 2018 it has got market capitalization of $713.254 million and on june21, 2018 it closed at $190.22.(Anon., 2018) D.DASH: It is also known as Darkcoin.It was launched in the year 2014 and compared to Bitcoin it is more secretive version. It almost makes the transaction untraceable as it works on a decentralized master code network. It was developed by Evan Duffield. It was rebranded in the year 2015 and named as Dash, which stands for Digital Cash. No technological features were changed through rebranding .It has got a market cap of $1.999 billion and on June 2018 it closed at $261.03. E.RIPPLE:It is launched in the year 2012, it offers a real time settlement and too at very low international costs. This crypto currency enables all cross border payments to be settled with transparency with real time and at very minimal costs. It doesnโt need a mining technology, which makes its stand apart from Bitcoin, and altcoins.Computing power is less used as it does not require mining. In June 2018 it has a market cap of $ 18.9 billion and it closed at $0.534 in June 2018.(Anon., 2018) F.MONERO: It was launched in the year April 2014.It is very secure and private currency. After its launch much interest is seen among cryptographers. The discovery of this crypto currency is totally donation and community based. It has got a new technique called โring signatures โwhich enables to have a complete privacy with much focus on decentralization. It has got a market cap of $1.812 billion on June, 2018 and closed at $123.32. Still Bitcoin leads among all crypto currency whether it is about popularity among public or market capitalization. For enterprise solutions generally currency such as Ethereal and Ripple are gaining popularity while for some advanced features Bitcoin is used .Seeing the current market scenario cryptocurrency are going to stay for long but how many crypto currency will come out as a winning leader in this growing competition can only be seen with time.
PROBLEM AND RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH CRYPTOCURRENCIES Some problems and risks associated with crypto currencies are as follows: A.Phishing and spoofing payment information: There might be a possibility that malware changes the address we have copied to transfer money to another person and there is a very little chance to cross check the address that we have copied especially when the characters are too long.(Anon., 2017) It is also possible that the users can be taken to phising website where they are asked to enter their card details and password. B.Hacking a payment gateway:Even after using a correct address and reliable payment gateway can also lead to a loss of money. The most popular case in June 2017 for Ethereumcrypto currency with addresshttps://classicetherwallet.com/started taking money from userโswallet. They had used social engineering methods to proof that they are the owners, after that they started taking away money, but fortunately the strategy used was not great as they could manage to take $300,000 in several hours thus saving huge loss.(Anon., 2017) C.User address error:There can be an error in the address to which money is transferred. Like in case of crypto currencyEtherum if the last word r digit is not copied than it might be possible that the money will go into air or it will reach where it was supposed to reach. D.Loss of wallet files: Loss of wallet through theft is a major problem occurring in crypto currency. Generally users save their wallet on desktop. Therefore, this can easily steal or lost if the system crashes. Expert users of crypto currency make copies to their key and buy USB hardware wallets but these expert crypto currency users are very small. Centralized e-money is very good now as it requires authentication to complete the transaction and confirmation through OTP is send via SMS and email and in case of company or huge amount transaction, use of USB token is mandatory. E.Insecure ICOs:In the year 2017 projects connected with blockchain and investment on them has become very famous. Money rising through this type is called ICO-Initial Coin Offering. Crypto currency has gained much importance in raising funds through internet connection. Through ICO $1.7 billion has already been funded. Rate of successful projects are very less but still investors are very optimistic on it. Main problem associated within it that the market is not regulated through any mechanism or procedure and there is no mechanism through which risk can be assessed and no guarantee of return on amount invested.
F.Spoofing a user address:To simply grab money from others through cheating is very simple .In an ICO, the amount required to be collected opens at a specific time and closes when the amount required has been collected and the address for the same is also mentioned on the project website. It might be possible that the hacker got access to the project website and as soon the ICO open he change the address with his own. Within an hour all the money gets transfer to that fake address even the address is showing as fake still the investors continues to transfer money to thataddressandthathackergetsalumpsummoneywithinahour. Question 2 Part 1 Generate the price yield curve for a zero coupon bond at different interest rate Amount in Euro Face value=100Actual Days=260 Sl NoRatePrice 14%100/1+rate=96.15 24.25%100/1+rate =95.92 34.50%100/1+rate= 95.69 44.75%100/1+rate= 95.47 55.00%100/1+rate =95.24 65.25%100/1+rate= 95.01 75.50%100/1+rate= 94.79 85.75%100/1+rate= 94.56 96.00%100/1+rate= 94.34 106.25%100/1+rate= 94.12 116.50%100/1+rate= 93.90 126.75%100/1+rate= 93.68 137.00%100/1+rate= 93.46 147.25%100/1+rate= 93.24 157.50%100/1+rate= 93.02 167.75%100/1+rate= 92.81 178.00%100/1+rate= 92.59 .
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= 99.80 Price=Coupon/(1+interest rate)+Maturity amount/(1+semi annual interest rate) = 4/1+5.0%+104/1+10.0% = 98.35 (a)What is the price change when the yield curve changes from 8% to 8.5%? The price change is (-) 0.45. (b)What is the price change when the yield curve changes from 8% to 7.5%? The price change is 0.46. (c)Comment on the capital gain and loss you observe in b and c The same has occurred because of inverse relation between price of a bond and its yield. As the yield increases, price fall and vice versa. (d)Comment on the feature of price yield curve
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The features of the price yield curve are: (a)There exist an inverse relation between price and yield; (b)With increase in yield rate the fall becomes smaller and vice versa; Question 2 Part 3 Explain why the yield curve for a lower quality bond could be negatively sloped when the yield for other bonds are not. The above situation can happen because of the following reasons: ๏ทDue to rising prices of the lower quality bond in the market on account of speculative activities; ๏ทDue to economic reasons or recession in the economy; Question 3 Part 1 Determine the current yield and yield to maturity for each bond selected Sl NOName of Bond Current Price Price 1 year before Coup on 1 Year Change Current Annual Yield Yield to Maturity 1Pakistan 10 year bond111.6490.426051233.2137%10% 2Pakistan I.Sukuk 16/2196.211015.50.711%1.04% 3Pakistan 1 year Bond8.056.0302.0234%34% 4 UK Glit Treasury Stock 4.5% 102.289106.84.5-0.010%0.59% Pakistan 10 year bond Current Price =111.64(Given) Price 1 year before=111.64/1.2346=90.42605
Coupon=12(Given) One year change=111.64-(90.42605+12)=33.21 Current Annual Yield=33.21/90.42605=37% Computed YTM=(12+(100-111.64))/(100+111.63)/2=0.085% YTM(as given in stock exchange)=10% Pakistan I.Sukuk 16/21 Current Price =96.21(Given) Price 1 year before=101( From site){markets.businessinsider.com} Coupon=5.5(Given) One year change=96.21-(101+5.5)=0.71 Current Annual Yield=0.71/101=1% Computed YTM=(5.5+(100-96.21))/(100+96.21)/2=2.367% YTM(as given in stock exchange)=1.04% Pakistan 1 year Bond Current Price =8.05(Given) Price 1 year before=8.05/1.335=6.03 Coupon=0(Given) One year change=8.05-(6.03+0)=2.02 Current Annual Yield=2.02./6.03=34% Computed YTM=(0+(100-8.05))/(100+8.05)/2=42.55% YTM(as given in stock exchange)=34.00% UK Glit Treasury Stock 4.5% Current Price =102.289(Given) Price 1 year before=106.8(From site){www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk} Coupon=4.5(Given) One year change=102.289-(106.8+4.5)=-0.01 Current Annual Yield=-0.01./106.8=0% Computed YTM=(4.5+(100-102.289))/(100+102.289.21)/2=0.546% YTM(as given in stock exchange)=0.59% Further fall the bond the yield were already provided in the stock exchange so the same has not been computed. If the computation is required, the following formula shall hold good:
Question 3 Part 2 Evaluate the investment implications of yield curve . Yield curve plays a crucial role in determining the sentiments of the market and economic growth. The yield curve display relationship between between rates of interest on various bonds with different maturities but same credit quality. For the purpose of analyzing the impact on investment, three types of yield curve have been analyzed: (a)Upward Sloping yield curve: An upward sloping yield curve indicates a positive sentiment, market is growing, and investors are confident. Further, under this market conditions, the investor demand an additional premium for bonds of longer duration. The same is based on a view that more risk shall be there on account of larger time frame. The same is a symbol of healthy economy. (b)Flat Yield Curve: A flat yield curve indicates that investors do not have much positive sentiment towards market and they are not compensated for additional risk they bear on account of long term maturity of bonds. A flat yield curve is an indicator of undue stress that market is going to witness on account of ambivalent signals.(Kerkhoff, 2015)
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Further, under the flat yield investors buy and sell bonds continuously demonstrating a mixed behaviour and worrisome attitude about the future prospect o0f the company. Thus, under this environment investors prefer safe business environment and look for less return. (c)Yield Curve inversion: When the ambivalent feelings turn dreader, the yield become inverted curve and symbolise negative sentiment in the investment climate. The curve indicates tough time a head with rising price of bonds and falling yields. Under, this investment climate the yield for short-term security is high and for long term securities are low. It is the worst yield curve and can result in recession in the economy.(Hansen, 2018)
Thus, the following are the investment implications of different types of yield curve and market behave accordingly in terms of curve. Question 3 Part 3 Explain the factors that affect price, yield and duration of the bond. The factors that affect price, yield and duration of bond include: (a)Interest Rate Risk:There exist an inverse relation between price of a bond and its yield .The higher the yield, the lower the price of the bond and vice versa;(Anon., 2014) (b)Duration: Duration helps to measure the volatility or responsiveness of the bond to change in interest rates. Under nonprofessional terms, duration of the bond can be seen as weighted average time of the coupon and principal element of the bond. The following relation exists: For a given increase in duration of the bond, the price shall increase by a greater amount for a decrease in yield and there shall be a greater fall in prices for an increase in yield. (c)Yield Curve: The yield curve is a line graph that displays the relationship between maturity and yield to maturity of a bond belonging to similar asset class and credit quality. The following relation exists: yield curve is upward sloping with long maturity bonds and yield more than the comparable short term bond. However, the yield curve is influenced by following factors: (i)Monetary Policies of the government; (ii)Market expectations or demand supply of future prospects of growth; (iii)Premium for term; (iv)Expectations regarding inflation; (d)Yield Curve Risk: It is the risk that change is not parallel and thus results in two bond portfolios with similar duration having different prices as yield curve does not change in a parallel fashion. (e)Credit Risk: The return and the yield on investment received by an investor are highly influenced by the credit rating and quality of the bond or issuer. The issuer with higher credit worthiness shall pay a yield that is lower compared to other issuer with a lower creditworthiness. The rating of the bond are issued by major credit rating agencies;
(f)Time of Maturity: Time of maturity play a crucial role in determining the duration of bond. For instance consider two bonds with a yield of 5% and each cost dollar 1000. A bond that matures in a short span say a year would quickly repay the interest and principal component than the bond maturing in 2 years.(Bondview.com, n.d.) (g)Coupon Rate: A bondโs payment is a significant factor in computing the duration of the bond. If same or similar bonds with two different coupon rates are issued, bond with higher coupon rate shall repay at a faster rate or in early time compared to other. Bibliography Anon., 2014.Bond Basics: Key Factors Affecting.[Online] Available at:http://franklin-street.com/Docs_News/PR_Sullivan_Bond_Basics_11-14.pdf [Accessed 6 August 2018]. Anon., 2017.Problems and risks of cryptocurrencies.[Online] Available at:https://www.kaspersky.com/blog/cryptocurrencies-intended-risks/20034/ [Accessed 6 August 2018]. Anon., 2018.Critical Investing Lessons Learned From Peter Lynch.[Online] Available at:https://www.suredividend.com/peter-lynch-investing-lessons/ [Accessed 6 August 2018]. Anon., 2018.The 6 Most Important Cryptocurrencies Other Than Bitcoin.[Online] Available at:https://www.investopedia.com/tech/most-important-cryptocurrencies-other-than-bitcoin/ [Accessed 6 August 2018]. Anon., n.d.Cryptocurrency.[Online] Available at:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency [Accessed 6 August 2018]. Anon., n.d.Peter Lynch.[Online] Available at:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/peterlynch.asp [Accessed 6 August 2018].
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Bondview.com, n.d.Duration.[Online] Available at:https://www.bondview.com/glossary/duration [Accessed 6 August 2018]. Hansen, S., 2018.Investing Using The Yield Curve.[Online] Available at:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4150400-investing-using-yield-curve [Accessed 8 August 2018]. Kerkhoff, M., 2015.What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us About the Future?.[Online] Available at:https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/matthew-kerkhoff/what-is-yield-curve [Accessed 6 August 2018].