This article analyzes the US-China trade deal and its impact on Australia's economy and trade activities. Despite possible costs to Australian farmers, Australia welcomes the deal for boosting global confidence. The article discusses the microeconomic and macroeconomic analysis, market structure, and externalities of the trade deal.
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Table of Contents Article: Australia welcomes US-China trade deal, despite possible costs.......................................1 Event Description.............................................................................................................................1 PART 1 – Microeconomic analysis.................................................................................................1 a) Demand and Supply analysis...................................................................................................1 b) Market Structure......................................................................................................................2 c) Externalities.............................................................................................................................3 PART 2 Macroeconomic Analysis..................................................................................................4 a) GDP and Unemployment.........................................................................................................4 b) Fiscal Policy............................................................................................................................5 c) Monetary Policy......................................................................................................................5 REFERENCES................................................................................................................................7
Article: Australia welcomes US-China trade deal, despite possible costs Publish Date: 17 Jan.2020 Published In:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/17/australia-welcomes-us-china- trade-deal-despite-possible-costs Event Description The present article is based upon US-China trade deal, where China gives commitment for buying the goods of US worth $200 billion over two years. However, it may come at expense of Australian farmers, but despite of possible cost, Australia still welcomes it. The reason behind is truce, which is good for boosting global confidence(Li, 2020). Therefore, to analyse this fact how could an agreement made to stop fighting between two countries for a certain period, will prove beneficial for another nation to overcome from global crises, regarding with trade tensions. Under this phase one deal, agreement is made to buy agricultural products, energy supplies and as well as manufacturing products. So, in such manner, honouring this commitment would impact on other trading partners of China like Australia to buy their products. PART 1 – Microeconomic analysis a) Demand and Supply analysis Trade conflicts between two major countries of the world i.e. US and China, results in affecting economy and trading activities of other nations as well, at global level. Due to trade conflicts in between both nations in terms of raise of US tariffs over 25% on Chinese imports annually, with announcement of Chinese retaliation together marks latest escalation in the same, highly effects their trading partners also(Madi, 2020). It slows down the global growth and threatening economies of other nations also. As Australia is one of the key partner of China, so rising tariff rates also impact on trade activities of this nation also. Therefore, agreement made between these two nations, will help in reducing tariff rates. Similarly,outbreak of coronavirus also impacts on supply networks, where, as per released trade data, it has also evaluated that early impact of trade war on two largest economies of the world as well as on future of global commerce. Unexpectedly, there is no real improvement within trade balance, that creates trade surplus of China with more diversification of its exports (Crabb, 2020). Therefore, deal signed between two superpowers of world i.e. US and China is considered as momentous and positive step, for a fair as well as reciprocal trade towards future of global commerce. Therefore, 1
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considering improvement in confidence of global economy despite of reducing own trade activities with China, Australian Government welcomes this US-China deal. Figure1:The Impact of US-China Trade Tensions. 2019 b) Market Structure China is considered as the largest manufacturing economy of the world as well as biggest exporter of goods. It is one of fastest-growing consumer markets and major economy, that actively plays an active role in increasing world’s economy at reasonable levels(Nam and Kim, 2020). It’s growth primarily has been driven via market-oriented reforms with opening of its economy to rest of the world. Mostly, growth of this nation is combined with low costs of 2
production, where in recent years. liberalisation measures have led to increases significantly in exports and investment of foreign market(Wang, 2020). The high level of global market demand results in strengthening the China's position in rest part of the world. But this would also entail increased concern on its growth that takes place at cost of other nations. In context with US, it is considered as the engine of world economy, where any sign of economic recession or slowdown raises concerns regarding with harmful spill-overs to world economies. Therefore, conflicts, trade restrictions and more in such large nations highly impact economy at world level. Trade war of U.S.-China for global supply chains and imposed of higher tariffs rates, where. firms of US depend more on exports as well as imports from China has experienced more declines within stock returns. It has also created trade deficit or shortage of goods globally, which effects economy of other nations too(Crabb, 2020). In this regard, such negative imbalance of trade spills over to global suppliers, producers and suppliers also through production network. Expansion of such conflict will increase more damage and reverberate economy across the world. c) Externalities China is one of the largest trading partner of Australia, where two-way trade among these two countries is worth annually over $194.6 billion(Li, 2020). Both nations are economically and mutually dependent, in agricultural, energy supplies and manufacturing products like iron ore, for recovery and rebuilding. In this regard, imposed tariff rates also effects relationship and trading of both nations. Therefore, US-China agreement for trading for next two years will boost global confidence and improve economy as well. However, agricultural and manufacturing firms of Australia could be hit, when major products will be bought from US by China(Madi, 2020). For this assistance, major steps need to be taken by Australian Government to maintain its relationship with China and increase its trade activities in upcoming years. Considering reduction in trade barriers as US did, Australian Government has also demand China for same reduction, which Beijing has committed the United States to overcome from collateral damage. The reason behind it, China’s decision forimpose 80% tariffs on food products (barley) from Australia, so, it amid tensions over coronavirus inquiry call, to coincide with a move that allow imports of same food product from US (Crabb, 2020). 3
PART 2 Macroeconomic Analysis a) GDP and Unemployment As trade restrictions between one of the two superpowers of world i.e. US and China which contributes major role in increasing global economy, creates high impact on other countries also(Nam and Kim, 2020). Therefore, dealing the sign for reducing tariff and increasing trade activities over certain period, would result in improving economic condition at global level. U.S. tariffs levels on Chinese products including number of goods covered by this nation, are constantly changing from last two decades, due to trade dispute among two largest economies. Import tariffs mostly essentially in terms of sales tax, that raise costs of goods for consumers, where simplest assumption can be considered as 100% bear of cost by consumers with increase in tariffs(Wang, 2020). For an instance, if U.S. has worth $20 trillion as GDP with a 10% tariff imposed by Government on imported goods worth of $200 billion, then it will raise 0.1% increase in average price of products for consumers. Similarly, in context with Chinese market, at current exchange rates, assuming it has $12 trillion GDP, where a 10% tariff of U.S. on worth of 200 billion US dollar of Chinese goods probably will reduce its GDP over 0.1-0.2%. In this regard, to counter such the negative imbalance of trade, allowing currency of China to fall and stimulate the disposal, monetary and fiscal policies, could partially offset the impact, at least in terms of short run. Therefore, commitment of China for buying goods of US worth $200 billion in upcoming years, will result in positively trade balance. It would create trade surplus, which could provide benefit to boost global economy, that help in improving economy of rest of the countries as well. At current period, where outbreak of COVID-19 has highly affected the world’s economy and create global crises, it has evaluated that GDP has severely reduced of various nations including Australia also. It has also increases unemployment in various nations that not only effect living standard but also firms of all affected nations. In this regard, sign among two superpowers for increasing trade over two years, will result in enhancing production, improving supply chain process and more. So, it will provide employment to not only US and China labours also, but also for other countries also whose economy are highly depended on global trading.The agreement also considers as significant turning point in trade policy of America, including free- trade agreements types which has supported by United States. Despite of lowering the tariffs for 4
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allowance of flow of goods and services for meeting demand of market, it has further evaluated by economists that this deal will also leave a record level regarding with tariffs in place (Crabb, 2020). It willhighly forceChinafor buying itsspecificproductswhichwoulddirectly contributes to increase its GDP, with rising in global economy. Criticizing this approach, will lead to increase more employment for both superpowers. Therefore, avoiding that it could hit adversely the Australian farmers and manufacturing industries, still government of this nation welcome this commitment, only to uplift the global economy, which is essential to meet financial crises after the outbreak of pandemic virus (COVID-19 or Corona Virus). b) Fiscal Policy Concerning on phase one agreement of the US and China trade deal, it has been evaluated that Beijing has given its commitment for buying agriculture products of US that worth $50bn, another $50 billion in energy supplies and more than $75bn in manufacturing products(Wang, 2020). But if such kind of commitment will be honoured as stated, then it is likely to analyse that China would buy less from its trading partners, like Australia. But despite of focusing on increasing trade of US, Australian Government taken its as growth of China economy, especially in those areas where it couldn’t reach before. Since both Australia and China are mutually and economically dependent on each other, so, with increase in GDP of Chinese market would positively impact of economy of Australia also(Nam and Kim, 2020). China refers to be a leading export market regarding with wide range of Australian food as well as agricultural products, like wool, barley, cotton, wine, rock lobsters, beef, wine and more. In this regard, focusing on relationship with trading partners like Australia, China has also states that additional purchases of goods from US market, will not be made at the expense of rest of the countries. So, it shows positive sign for other nations also in improving GDP and employment rates, if trade war of superpower nations (US and China) will stop, because it could boost economy at global level. Therefore, agreement indicates a positive first step for China, US and rest of the countries more broadly c) Monetary Policy Since overall result of US-China deal would help in uplifting the global level therefore, Australia and other countries are agreed with the same, by avoiding loss of trade of own products in China(Madi, 2020). But request has emerged as experts warned about US allies like Australia would highly suffer from collateral damage due to its trade deal with China, for massively 5
increase imports of US agricultural goods including energy and manufacturing products in China, Morrison government has asked from China for granting Australia with same tariff reduction which Beijing has made with United States. The trade minister of Australia, Simon Birmingham, has sought to quell threats over the potentially wider impacts of US-China deal, by saying that Australian government expected that its agriculture product (poultry, pork and soybeans) will make up a large share of items that are exported to China from US(Li, 2020). Along with this, key exports like beef and wine will also continue for maintaining the tariff differential advantages from Australia in China. Therefore, concerning on increasing production of these products will help in reducing negative impact of US-China trade deal and maintain its GDP by exporting the same in China market. 6
REFERENCES Books and Journals Crabb, J., 2020. US-China trade war part three: Cfius.International Financial Law Review. Li, M., 2020. The US-China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis.Journal of Asian Economics, p.101216. Madi, M. A. C., 2020. Private Equity and Venture Capital in China in the Aftermath of the Sino- American Trade Disputes.Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies.12(1). pp.69- 79. Nam, E. Y. and Kim, S. T., 2020. The US-China Trade War and the Korean Economy’s Risk Mitigating Strategies.Journal of International Trade & Commerce.16(1). pp.113-129. Wang, Y., 2020. Causes of US-China trade imbalances: a review.Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies. Online TheImpactofUS-ChinaTradeTensions.2019.[Online]AvailableThrough:< https://blogs.imf.org/2019/05/23/the-impact-of-us-china-trade-tensions/>. Australian government asks China for same reduction in trade barriers as US. 2020.[Online] AvailableThrough:<https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/29/australian- government-asks-china-for-same-reduction-in-trade-barriers-as-us>. 7