This essay discusses the role of economic policies in obtaining macroeconomic stability and sustainable economic growth. It also describes the demand and supply-side policies adopted by some developed countries like the U.K.
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Running head: ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Economic policy and the global environment Name of the student Name of the university Author Note
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1ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT The government of a country plays significant role to obtain economic growth in long-term through obtaining macroeconomic stability in short-run. Economic stability helps to obtain other macroeconomic objectives like stable price level along with sustainable and stableeconomicgrowth.Consequently,economicgrowthhelpsanationtoincrease employment opportunity through increasing job creation and a balance of payments (Idris, Bakar and Ahmad 2018). This happens because economic stability generates confidence and certainty and this in turn influences the country to invest in human capital and technology. To maintain economic stability in short-run, the government can adopt various governmental policies in the form of fiscal and monetary policies along with floating exchange rate and flexible labour markets (Corsetti, Kuester and Müller 2017). On the other side, there are several policies that help to promote sustainable growth, which are, development capital, technology policy, tax reform, decreasing deregulation along with increasing contestability and competitiveness of the country. Hence, this essay has intended to describe those policies, based on some instances of real scenario of some developed countries like the U.K. The government of a country can maintain its short-run stability through applying alternative monetary conditions, for instance, increasing or decreasing interest rates or through contracting or expanding supply of money. Most of the governments and monetary unions review this policy in each month (Keister 2017). On the other side, fiscal policy includes tax cutting along with increasing governmental expenditures. Those demand-side policies can be described in the context of U.K with the help of some macroeconomic concepts. The demand side policies try to increase aggregate demand (AD) of a country. This helps a country to improve its economic condition during recession period or stagnant economic growth. In this context, it can be said that those demand side policies can be effective to increase economic growth when the country possesses spare capacity or negative
2ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Price Y1Y2 Real GDP (Y) LRAS AD1 AD2 P2 P1 O output gap (Blanchard and Summers 2017). However, during trend rate of growth, the economy can experience inflation if AD increases further. Figure 1: Increase in aggregate demand Source: (created by author) The most common tool that can influence economic activity of a country is monetary policy. To increase aggregate demand, the government can decrease rates of interest, Lower interest rates helps to reduce the borrowing cost and this in turn can encourage investors to invest more and to increase spending of consumers (Praptiningsih 2018). In addition to this, lower rates of interest forces people to save less through making spending comparatively more attractive. Thus, lower rates of interest increase consumers’ disposable income and decrease mortgage interest payments.
3ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Figure 2: Trends of base rates and GDP growth rate of the U.K Source: (Lee and Werner 2018) According to figure 2, base rates of the U.K have decreased in 2009 by 0.5% as the government has intended to stimulate economic growth rate within economy (Lee and Werner 2018). However, in this context, it can be said that lower rates of interest may not always increase spending. If the company falls within a liquidity trap than lower rate of interest remains unable to increase spending as at this time people try to pay back their debts. This phenomenon has also occurred in U.K during this period. The government has reduced interest rates though spending of the country has not increased by large extend (Frank 2018). Banks have not wanted to lend money due to shortage of liquidity. As a result, the entire situation does not follow theoretical concept regarding cheap borrowing for lower rates of interest and has become difficult to create credit during in reality. Thus, this governmental policy has become unsuccessful to bring economic growth in U.K.
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4ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT The monetary policy has some other criticisms. For instance, lower rate of interest cannot distort economic growth of this country for future. After 9/11, the U.S.A has experienced economic uncertainty and consequently has reduced its interest rates (Jens 2017). These lower rates of interests have led people to take huge amount of loans and mortgages and consequently the housing bubble has occurred. Hence, from this economic outcome it can be said that, reducing interest rates at wrong time can influence a future asset and housing bubble that further can destabilise economic growth. However, during financial crisis in 2009 and 2012, the country has not experienced any danger regarding housing bubble and keeping interest rate at zero level has become an appropriate decision of the government. Thegovernmentcanalsoobtainlong-termeconomicgrowththroughapplying appropriate fiscal policy, such as, increasing government expenditure and decreasing tax. This lower income tax can increase disposable income of citizens and consequently aggregate consumer expenditure may increase further (Jordà and Taylor 2016). Furthermore, higher spending of the government can create jobs and this in turn can give and economic stimulus. However,expansionaryfiscalpolicyhassomeproblemsasitincreasesgovernment borrowing. Hence, to overcome this excess expenditure, the government borrows money from private sector. If the economy is growing one, than it can crowd out the private sector through its higher government borrowing. In addition to this, some economists have criticised this expansionary policy through stating that it can increase the size of governmental sector permanently. On the other side, a rapid fall private spending can increase the saving ratio and consequently, expansionary fiscal policy can increase the economic development without doing any crowding out.
5ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Figure 3: Net borrowing percentage of GDP of the U.K Source: (Bozio, Emmerson, Peichl and Tetlow 2015) The above figure has represented net borrowing percentage of GDP in U.K. It can be observed from above figure that borrowing of this U.K government has increased in 2009 and 2010 as they have followed expansionary fiscal policy (Bozio, Emmerson, Peichl and Tetlow 2015). Floating exchange rates also stabilise economy. During negative supply or demand side shock, the economy can be affected adversely and this in turn can decrease he exchange rate further. As a result, export price can decrease and the country can increase its exports and consequently the country can experience competition in international market. Hence, this devaluation helps the country to increase its domestic and international demand, which further can help the specified economy to obtain long-term economic growth (Corsetti, Kuester and Müller 2017). For instance, both Iceland and Argentina have experience rapid devaluations and this further them to recover their economic condition (Benediktsdóttir,
6ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Eggertsson and Þórarinsson 2017). In addition to this, the U.K also has benefited in 1990 from leaving the mechanism of exchange rate. However, this devaluation has disadvantage as well; for instance, it can increase inflation within economy and consequently standard of living may decrease as well. Hence, without any unsustainable bust or boom, those demand side policies cannot increase the economic growth rate. For instance, in the U.K, taxes have been decreased to increase a backdrop of increasing housing prices and inflation. This in turn has helped the economy to achieve rapid economic growth. However, this growth has become unsustainable due to inflation. The government can also apply supply side polices to improve economic growth through improving efficiency and productivity of the economy. Those policies can be described as follows: Lower income tax can influence a person to work more and this in turn increase labour supply. Hence, this further helps aggregate supply to increase further. In addition to this, decrease in income tax helps disposable income of the person to increase further and this in turn improves aggregate demand of the county. Consequently, the country can experience economic growth. Better union relationships between employees and employers along with flexible labour market and privation can also influence an economy to produce more output and this further can improve economic growth of the country through producing more outputs (Zhang, Nie, Shi and Zhang 2018). In this context, technological policy can be taken under consideration as technological development helps firms to produce more and for this, the government can provide incentives to those private entities in the form of cheap loans, grants of tax relief. In addition to this, the government can provide incentives to a person to start a new business or for small businesses to expand further. The other important factor to grow both developing and developed countries is foreign direct investment (FDI). Higher amount
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7ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT of FDI helps the country to improve its economic condition and to obtain this the government needs to reduce unnecessary regulations. Toobtainlong-termeconomicgrowth,short-termmacroeconomicstabilityis essential. Sustainable economic growth arrives due to increase in aggregate supply and demand.However,thisgrowthdependsonsupply-sidedevelopmentsasinflationary problemsandbalanceofpaymentscaninfluencebylessamountwhenthefactors’ productivity improves.
8ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT References: Benediktsdóttir,S.,Eggertsson,G.B.andÞórarinsson,E.,2017.TheRise,Fall,and Resurrection of Iceland: A Postmortem Analysis of the 2008 Financial Crisis.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2017(2), pp.191-308. Blanchard, O. and Summers, L., 2017, October. Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Back to the Future. InRethinking Macroeconomic Policy Conference, Peterson Institute for International Economics, October(pp. 12-13). Bozio, A., Emmerson, C., Peichl, A. and Tetlow, G., 2015. European public finances and the greatrecession:France,Germany,Ireland,Italy,SpainandtheUnitedKingdom compared.Fiscal Studies,36(4), pp.405-430. Corsetti, G., Kuester, K. and Müller, G.J., 2017. Fixed on Flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession.IMF Economic Review,65(3), pp.586-632. Corsetti, G., Kuester, K. and Müller, G.J., 2017. Fixed on Flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession.IMF Economic Review,65(3), pp.586-632. Frank, A.G., 2018. The development of underdevelopment. InPromise of development(pp. 111-123). Routledge. Idris, M., Bakar, R. and Ahmad, T.S.T., 2018. The Effects of Fiscal Operations on Economic Growth and Stability in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence Based on Time Series Data.European Journal of Economic and Business (ISSN-2456-3900),3(1). Jens,C.E.,2017.Politicaluncertaintyandinvestment:CausalevidencefromUS gubernatorial elections.Journal of Financial Economics,124(3), pp.563-579. Jordà, Ò. and Taylor, A.M., 2016. The time for austerity: estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy.The Economic Journal,126(590), pp.219-255.
9ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Keister,T.,2017.TheInterplayBetweenLiquidityRegulation,MonetaryPolicy ImplementationandFinancialStability.AchievingFinancialStability:ChallengesTo Prudential Regulation,61, p.173. Lee,K.S.andWerner,R.A.,2018.Reconsideringmonetarypolicy:Anempirical examination of the relationship between interest rates and nominal GDP growth in the US, UK, Germany and Japan.Ecological Economics,146, pp.26-34. Praptiningsih, M., 2018. The effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic stability and stock market.AU Journal of Management,9(1), pp.13-22. Zhang, Y., Nie, R., Shi, R. and Zhang, M., 2018. Measuring the capacity utilization of the coalsectoranditsdecouplingwitheconomicgrowthinChina’ssupply-side reform.Resources, Conservation and Recycling,129, pp.314-325.