1ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Table of Contents Task 1: Czech Republic imports and exports and exchange rate relationship................................2 Task 2: Czech Republic and Fiscal policy objectives.....................................................................5 Fiscal policy and main tools of fiscal policy...............................................................................5 Three main goals of fiscal policy for Czech Republic................................................................5 Types of fiscal policy...................................................................................................................6 Evaluation of different types of fiscal policy..............................................................................7 Impact of fiscal policy in Czech Republic on nation debt of Czech Republic............................9 Task 3: International trade and protectionism...............................................................................11 PPF for Germany and Bangladesh.............................................................................................11 Opportunity cost of Cars ad Cloth in Germany and Bangladesh...............................................13 Absolute advantage....................................................................................................................14 Gains from trade........................................................................................................................15 Economic, ethical and humanitarian impact of trade protectionism.........................................17 References......................................................................................................................................19
2ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Task 1: Czech Republic imports and exports and exchange rate relationship In determination of export and import volume of a nation, exchange rate plays an important role. Exchange rate expresses the value of one country’s currency in terms of currency of another nation. Value of the nation’s currency determines the volume of export and import by affecting price of imported and exported goods. When value of currency falls, this implies the country has to pay a larger amount for every unit of foreign currency (Arize, Malindretos and Igwe 2017). This is known as depreciation of currency. The depreciation of currency is good for importer importing goods of the concerned nation as they now have to pay a relatively lesser price. This benefits the exporters by boosting their export demand. This is however bad for importers of own nation as they have to pay a higher price for the imported goods valued in foreign currency. The situation is reverse if value of domestic currency increases against the foreign currency. When value of domestic currency increases this is a bad news for foreign importers. Foreign importers then have to pay a larger price for the goods imported from the nation (Asteriou, Masatci and Pılbeam 2016). Importers in the domestic nation however is benefitted as imports become relatively cheaper to them. When value of a currency increases in terms of foreign currency this is known as appreciation of currency. The volume of export and import and associated trade balance thus is closely related with movement of currency exchange rate. Czech Republic is a highly open and export oriented economy. The main exports of the nation include cars, computers, different parts of vehicles, machine parts, broadcast equipment and others. The top export destinations are Germany, Slovakia, United Kingdom, France and Poland. Major goods imported by the nation include machine parts, cars, broadcast equipment, vehicle part and computer with imports mainly originating from China, Germany, Italy, Slovakia
3ECONOMICS AND FINANCE and Poland (Oec.world 2020). Volume of export and import in the nation fluctuated with variation in the currency exchange rate. The official currency of Czech Republic is Czech Koruna. Apart of fluctuation in currency exchange rate imports and exports also vary depending on various trade policies. Protectionism measures taken by the country and its trading partners significantly influence trade volume. Czech Republic however is a highly open economy and mostly relies on promotion of free trade policy. The average tariff rate in Czech Republic is only 1.79 percent (Data.worldbank.org. 2019). This shows a minimal degree of trade restriction and reliance towards free trade. Volume of export and import in Czech Republic in the last five years is shown in the figure 1. In order to evaluate the relation between export and import and that of exchange rate, trend exchange rate during the same time period is presented in figure 2. 20142015201620172018 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Export, Import and Trade balance ExportImportTrade balance Year Export and import volume Trade balance Figure 1: Export and import of Czech Republic (Source: Data.worldbank.org. 2019)
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4ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 20142015201620172018 20.00 20.50 21.00 21.50 22.00 22.50 23.00 23.50 24.00 24.50 25.00 Exchange rate in Czech Republic Year CZK/USD Figure 2: Trend in Czech Koruna exchange rate (Source: Data.worldbank.org. 2019) The volume of export in 2014 was recorded to be 171.54 billion USD. The associated importvolumewas158.32 billionUSD. Since exportwasabovetheimportthe nation experienced a trade surplus of amount 13.22 billion USD. The recorded exchange rate between Czech Koruna and USD was 20.76. In 2015, exchange rate increases to 24.60 indicated a depreciation of currency. Going by standard theory of exchange rate and trade volume, this should have increased export while lowered export. However as shown by the recorded trade statistics during this year both export and import declined in 2015. The decline in Czech’s export during this time was mainly due to a decline in export to Russia because of the economic sanction against Russia and other measures of retaliation (Lazarova 2015). Following this there was a decline in both export and import of Czech. Since export dropped at a faster rate than the import trade balance of Czech Republic with Russia went in deficit during this year (Tyll, Pernica and Arltova 2018). For the next two years of 2017 and 2018 the domestic currency of
5ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Czech Republic appreciated with recorded exchange rate being 23.38 and 21.73 respectively. The volume of export is recorded to be 172.14 billion USD and 192.22 USD in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The associated volume of import in the two respective years were 155.90 billion USD and 176.57 billion USD. The above discussion though suggests a smooth flow of trade in Czech Republic ongoing trade protectionism measures globally overheated the economy. The decision of US president to impose tariff on goods that China imports to US triggered a trade war between the two large economies of the world (bbc.com 2020). The trade war resulted from US protectionism measure likely to impact Czech economy by affecting its trade volume. Most of the trade of Czech Republic occurs with EU countries with EU nations accounting 84% of total trade volume. Of this Germany alone accounted 39 percent. The tariff imposed by President Trump affected some sector other than aluminum and steel. The proposed tariff on automobiles would damage car industry of Germany which indirectly affected Czech economy. The global trade tension due to several protectionism measures have overheated the economy of Czech and are expected to disrupt the trade flow in future. Task 2: Czech Republic and Fiscal policy objectives Fiscal policy and main tools of fiscal policy Fiscal policy refers to the policy measure adapted by the government of a nation for stabilizing the economy in terms of adjustment to the government spending and tax rates (Guilmi, Gallegati and Landini 2017). The two main tools with which fiscal policy works are government expenditure and tax. Three main goals of fiscal policy for Czech Republic
6ECONOMICS AND FINANCE The three main goals of fiscal policy in Czech Republic are To achieve a stable growth. To achieve full employment (Ec.europa.eu. 2019). To maintain public debt below 3%. Types of fiscal policy Government implement two main types of fiscal policy depending on state of economy. The two main forms of fiscal policy used by the government are expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is a demand side policy and affects economic activity through influencing aggregate demand (Uribe and Schmitt-Grohe 2017).The equation for aggregate demand is given by AD=Consumption+Investment+GovernmentSpending+NetExport Government spending is one main component of aggregate demand and influences aggregate demand directly. Another tool of fiscal policy is tax rate which influences aggregate demand through affecting disposable income of household and consumption. Expansionary fiscal policy Governmentadaptsexpansionaryfiscalpolicywhentheeconomyundergoesa recessionary phase. During recession there is a continuous decline in economic growth along with a decline employment and price level. A boost in aggregate demand through necessary policy stimulus can help the economy to recover recession. This is the time when government takes expansionary fiscal policy. The expansionary fiscal policy is implemented either through an increase in government expenditure or through a cut in tax rate (Gandolfo 2016). Rise in
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7ECONOMICS AND FINANCE government spending or decrease in tax increases aggregate demand. As aggregate demand expands there is an rise in GDP and inflation in the economy. With expansion in aggregate output more employment opportunities are created. As more and more people become employed there is fall in unemployment rate within the economy. Contractionary fiscal policy Sometimes there are situations where an economy experiences excessive inflationary pressure. This occurs when actual GDP exceeds the potential GDP of the economy creating an inflationary gap. During this time, the economy needs some contraction to reach to the stable long term potential GDP. Government then adapt contractionary fiscal policy either by sinking government expenditure or by increasing tax rate. The contractionary fiscal policy brings down the aggregate demand to a lower level (Heijdra 2017). When aggregate demand contracts there is a decline in GDP and inflation within the economy. The contraction of aggregate output in turn causes loss of some employment opportunity resulting in an increase in rate of unemployment. Evaluation of different types of fiscal policy
8ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Figure 3: Impact of expansionary fiscal policy Figure 3 evaluates the impact of expansionary fiscal policy and associated impact on major economy variables. The aggregate demand in the above figure is captured by the downward sloping line AD. The corresponding aggregate supply curve is shown by upward sloping line AS. Macroeconomic equilibrium is settled at E with equilibrium GDP and price level are determined as Y* and P* respectively. Now, if government takes an expansionary fiscal by increasing government spending or lowering tax then the AD curve shifts out to AD1(Cantore et al. 2019).Because of the expansion of aggregate demand macroeconomic equilibrium shifts from E to E1.Corresponding to the new equilibrium GDP increases to Y1and price level increases to P1.With expansion of GDP as shown in the above figure, employment increases lowering level of unemployment.
9ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Figure 4: Impact of contractionary fiscal policy The impact of contractionary fiscal policy in an economy is evaluated in the figure 4. Here, when government adapt a contractionary fiscal policy by lowering spending or increasing tax rate reduces the level of aggregate spending shifting in the aggregate demand curve to AD2. At the lower level of aggregate demand, the economy attains new equilibrium at E2. The contractionary fiscal policy thus lowers the GDP to Y2and price level to P2.With decline in GDP, there is a loss in employment opportunities which by lowering employment increase unemployment level in the economy (Rezabek and Doucek 2018). Impact of fiscal policy in Czech Republic on nation debt of Czech Republic The adjustment of two main fiscal policy instruments that is government expenditure and taxes influence national budget and public debt. Too much policy expansion though considered to be supportive for economic growth, it may have an adverse effect on the economy in terms of a higher debt burden. In case of Czech Republic, government though supports the economy to achievestableeconomicconditionithoweversuccessfullykeepsthepublicdebtata
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10ECONOMICS AND FINANCE significantly low level. Among the EU nations, Czech Republic is known to have the lowest level of debt per capita. Government designs fiscal policy in a such a way that it can maintain a public debt less than 3% (Oecd.org. 2015). Figure 5: Government debt to GDP ratio (Source: Tradingeconomics.com. 2020) As shown from the above figure, there is a continuous decline in debt to GDP ratio in Czech Republic in the last five years. Decline in government debt has made possible because of the design of public policy. The economic growth of Czech Republic in 2017 was 3.7 percent. The impressive economic growth of the nation helped in strong performance of public finances. Both state and local government accounted a surplus in this year with estimated surplus being 17 billion and 44 billion for both state and local government respectively. Government though adapted a fiscal policy expansion in terms of raising investment expenditure it still experienced an overall surplus because of above average increase in tax rate (mfcr.cz 2017). The national budget of Czech
11ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Republic first accounted a surplus in 2016. The shift of the budget towards a surplus was mainly due to a significant improvement in structural balance. In 2018, economic growth of the nation slowed down to 3.0 percent. As the economy slowed that government needed to adapt an expansionary fiscal policy. In order to support the economy, government increased its investment spending. After week economic growth in the first quarter, government increased its investment spending by 20 percent (mfcr.cz 2018). This resulted in a decline in government budget. In recent years, externaleconomicrisks along with internalfactorsand problem of ageing population has out continuous pressure of government budget. This creates a future pressure on expenditure and public revenue. Government needs to incur a significant expenditure on health care services, pensions and other long term care program. The ceiling of expenditure in this area was initially set at 0.25 percentage point below the previous year. The resulted tightening down of expenditure to -0.75% was due to absence of social reform ensuring a greater financial stability. The fiscal projection suggests that a more fiscal policy expansion will lower budget surplus of Czech Republic for next two years. The budget surplus which was 0.9 percent of GDP in 2018 was fell to 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent in the respective years of 2019 and 2020 (mfcr.cz 2019). Consequently, public debt will continue to fall offering government sufficient opportunity to support economic growth of the nation. Task 3: International trade and protectionism PPF for Germany and Bangladesh Production possibility frontier of a nation illustrates the maximum amount of goods that a country can possibly produce using all of its resources (Chacholiades 2017). The table below provides information regarding production of cars and cloth in Germany and Bangladesh.
12ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Table 1: Production of cars and cloth in Germany and Bangladesh Using information from the above table PPF for Germany and Bangladesh can be drawn as follows Figure 6: PPF of Germany In the above figure the horizontal axis measures amount of car produced in Germany and the vertical axis measures amount of Cloth produced in Germany. The horizontal intercept therefore shows the maximum number of cars produced in Germany and the vertical intercept shows maximum quantity of clothes produced in the nation. As shown from the above table using all of its labor Germany can produce maximum 24 cars and 12 clothes. The value of
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13ECONOMICS AND FINANCE horizontal intercept OB therefore is 24 and that of vertical intercept OA is 12 (Leamer and Stern 2017). Joining A and B the PPF for Germany is obtained as AB. Figure 7: PPF of Bangladesh In figure 7, number of cars produced in Bangladesh is measured in horizontal axis and the amount of clothes produced is measured in the vertical axis. Using all the available labors Bangladesh can produce maximum 10 cars and 18 clothes. The horizontal intercept OD represents maximum number of cars and the vertical intercept OC represents maximum amount of clothes. Joining C and D PPF for Bangladesh is obtained as CD. Opportunity cost of Cars ad Cloth in Germany and Bangladesh Opportunity cost is cost of sacrificing unit of one good in order to produce 1 unit of another good (Senga, Fujimoto and Tabuchi 2017). The table below shows opportunity cost involved in producing one good in terms of another in Germany and Bangladesh. Table 2: Opportunity cost of Cars and Cloth
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15ECONOMICS AND FINANCE For producing 24 cars, Germany has to sacrifice 12 cloths. Therefore, for producing 1 unit of car, Germany needs to sacrifice 0.5 unit of cloth. The opportunity cost of car in Germany is 0.5 unit of cloth. Production of 12 units of cloth in Germany requires sacrifice of 24 units of cloth. Germany thus needs to forgo 2 units of cars for unit production of cloth. The opportunity of cloth in Germany is 2 units of cars. In Bangladesh, production of 10 units of cars need sacrifice of 18 cloth. For producing 1 unit of car the Bangladesh has to forgo 1.8 unit of cloth. Opportunity cost of car in Bangladesh therefore is 1.8 units of cloth. Similarly, in order to produce 1 unit of cloth, Bangladesh has to forgo 0.56 unit of car. In Bangladesh, the opportunity cost of cloth is 0.56 unit of car. Absolute advantage A nation has an absolute advantage in producing a good when it has the ability to produce the good at a lower absolute cost. From table 1, it has been observed that using all of its labor Germany can produce 24 cars while Bangladesh can produce 10 cars. Germany therefore has an absolute advantage in producing cars (Moon 2018). In case of cloth, using all the available labor, Germany can produce 12 cloth and Bangladesh can produce 18 cloth. Bangladesh therefore has an absolute advantage in producing cloth. Absolute advantage and specialization
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16ECONOMICS AND FINANCE The theory of absolute advantage suggests that a country should specialize in goods in which it has an absolute advantage. As discussed above Germany has an absolute advantage in producing cars while Bangladesh has an absolute advantage in producing cloth. Therefore, Germany should specialize in making cars and Bangladesh should specialize in making cloth (Desai and Rudra 2019). Gains from trade Before specialization countries need to produce both cars and cloth. In this situation available resources are divided between the two industries. Labor is the only factor of production for both the countries. Assuming labor is equally divided for producing cars and cloth, the production of cars and cloth in the individual country and the world as a whole in given in the following table. Table 3: World production before specialization When labor is divided equally between Cars and Cloth Germany can produce 12 cars and 6 cloth. Under same circumstance Bangladesh can produce 5 cars and 9 cloth. World production of car before specialization is the sum of production of cars in the individual country. The world production of car is (12 + 5) = 17. The world production of cloth is (6 + 9) = 15. c
17ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Afterspecializationcountryproducesonlythegoodinwhichithasanabsolute advantage. As explained in the above discussion, Germany enjoys absolute advantage in cars and therefore specialize in production of cars. Similarly Bangladesh enjoys absolute advantage in cloth and hence, specialize in producing cloth. The production in each nation and the world as a whole is given in the following table. Table 4: World production after specialization After specialization car is only produced in Germany and Cloth is only produced in Bangladesh. Germany therefore employs all the labor to produce cars and produce 24 cars. All the labors in Bangladesh are engaged in production off cloth and produce 18 cloth. World production of cars after specialization is 24 and that of cloth is 18. Fromtheabovediscussion,itisobservedthatworldproductionofcarsafter specialization increases from 17 to 24. The world production of cloth because of specialization increases from 15 to 18. Therefore, because of specialization the world economy benefitted from an increased production of both goods. This occurs because specialization allows countries to engage resources for maximum productive area. This in turn increases efficiency of production increasing aggregate world output and enhance economic growth.
18ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Impact of trade agreement and trade protectionism measure on a small country The patternof global tradehas been changed towardsinvolving more free trade agreements and other trade restrictive measures. Free trade agreements refer to a multinational agreement signed following international law to build a free trade area between the involving nations. The free trade agreements control tariff and import duties with the objective of lowering trade barrier barriers aim to encourage free trade among the nation (Osabuohien, Beecroft and Efobi 2018). The free trade agreements though aim to promote free trade among the member nationsofthetradeblocsitadverselyaffectsnon-membercountriesespeciallyasmall developing countries like Bangladesh. Since such agreement promotes free trade only among the member nations it restricts trade opportunities for the small nations. These countries suffer from a decline in their export despite having comparative advantage in producing goods. For example, the free trade agreement of NAFTA which allowed free trade between Canada, Mexico and US hit the garment industry of Bangladesh. In terms of garment production Bangladesh is the fourth largest nation. Neither Bangladesh is a member nation of NAFTA nor has any free agreement with US. Free trade agreement between the developed nation thus lower export of the small developing nation. Several trade protectionism measure like tariff, quotas, antidumping policies, exchange rate controls and others have similar effects (Cortright 2018). When countries across the world takes such trade protection developing nation highly relaying on trade and export earning suffer a loss in terms of a decline in export demand. Since these nations mostly import capital intensive goods which are paid out of export earning a decline in export in turn result in a decline in import. Economic, ethical and humanitarian impact of trade protectionism
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19ECONOMICS AND FINANCE When developed countries increases trade protectionism measures then small developing countries suffer from a decline in their export demand. Producers in countries like Bangladesh experienced a decline in their welfare because of increased trade protection. The immediate effect of trade restriction by a developed nation is to lower the price in the domestic market of exporting nation. There is loss in producer surplus in these countries. Trade protection by lowering export of goods to its’ trading partners though increases welfare of domestic customers, the aggregate welfare is negative (McGee 2016). Because of the decline in export demand these economies suffer from a loss in employment opportunities in these industries and lower aggregate income and economic well-being. Inaneraofglobalizationandintegratedworldprotectionismmeasurestakenby developed nations are considered as unethical since through these measures developed nations exploit small developing nation using its global economic power. The protectionism measure like antidumping is unethical since it is a negative sum game. The losers here exceed the winners. Protectionism in the form of economic sanctions is unethical in the sense that they do not work in the way they are designed to. These are also negative sum game as suggested from utilitarian perspective. Apart from economic and ethical issues such protectionisms measure also include humanitarian issues. It violates human rights to freely exchange goods and services. Trade protectionism measures taken by the developed nations involve social and humanitarian aspects (Weiss 2018). Such policies by lowering economic prospects causes loss of life and social harm especially in the developing nations like Bangladesh.
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21ECONOMICS AND FINANCE References Arize, A.C., Malindretos, J. and Igwe, E.U., 2017. Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach.International Review of Economics & Finance,49, pp.313-326. Asteriou, D., Masatci, K. and Pılbeam, K., 2016. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries.Economic Modelling,58, pp.133-140. bbc.com.2020.US-Chinatradewarin300words.[online]Availableat: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Cantore, C., Levine, P., Melina, G. and Pearlman, J., 2019. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy, debt crisis, and management.Macroeconomic Dynamics,23(3), pp.1166-1204. Chacholiades, M., 2017.The pure theory of international trade. Routledge. Cortright, D., 2018.Economic sanctions: panacea or peacebuilding in a post-cold war world?. Routledge. Data.worldbank.org. 2019.Imports of goods and services (current US$) - Czech Republic | Data. [online]Availableat:https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.CD?locations=CZ [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Data.worldbank.org. 2019.Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%) | Data. [online] Availableat:https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/tm.tax.mrch.wm.ar.zs[Accessed21Jan. 2020]. Desai,R.M.andRudra,N.,2019.Trade,poverty,andsocialprotectionindeveloping countries.European Journal of Political Economy,60, p.101744.
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22ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Ec.europa.eu.2019.ConvergenceProgramoftheCzechRepublic[online]Availableat: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/2019-european-semester-convergence-programme- czech-republic_en.pdf [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Gandolfo, G., 2016. International Finance and International Macroeconomics: An Overview. InInternationalFinanceandOpen-EconomyMacroeconomics(pp.3-9).Springer,Berlin, Heidelberg. Guilmi, C.D., Gallegati, M. and Landini, S., 2017. Interactive Macroeconomics.Cambridge Books. Heijdra, B.J., 2017.Foundations of modern macroeconomics. Oxford university press. Lazarova., D 2015.Trade Ministry figures indicate significant decline in Czech exports to Russia|RadioPragueInternational.[online]Availableat: https://www.radio.cz/en/section/business/trade-ministry-figures-indicate-significant-decline-in- czech-exports-to-russia [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Leamer, E.E. and Stern, R.M., 2017.Quantitative international economics. Routledge. McGee, R.W., 2016. Some Ethical Issues in Trade Policy: Management Ethics versus the Law.Available at SSRN 2859168. mfcr.cz 2017.Fiscal Outlook of the Czech Republic (November 2017). [online] Available at: https://www.mfcr.cz/en/statistics/fiscal-outlook/2017/fiscal-outlook-of-the-czech-republic-nov- 30160 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020].
23ECONOMICS AND FINANCE mfcr.cz. 2018.Fiscal Outlook of the Czech Republic (November 2018). [online] Available at: https://www.mfcr.cz/en/statistics/fiscal-outlook/2018/fiscal-outlook-of-the-czech-republic-nov- 33464 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. mfcr.cz. 2019.Fiscal Outlook of the Czech Republic (November 2019). [online] Available at: https://www.mfcr.cz/en/statistics/fiscal-outlook/2019/fiscal-outlook-of-the-czech-republic-nov- 36589 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Moon, B.E., 2018.Dilemmas of international trade. Routledge. Oec.world. 2020.OEC - Czech Republic (CZE) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners. [online] Available at: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/cze/ [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Oecd.org.2015.GovernmentataGlance[online]Availableat: https://www.oecd.org/gov/Czech-Republic.pdf [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Osabuohien, E.S., Beecroft, I. and Efobi, U.R., 2018. Global trade and trade protection in a globalised world.Transnational Corporations Review,10(1), pp.43-52. Rezabek, P. and Doucek, P., 2018. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Czech Republic.Systems,6(2), p.25. Senga, S., Fujimoto, M. and Tabuchi, T. eds., 2017.Ricardo and international trade. Taylor & Francis. Tradingeconomics.com. 2020.Czech Republic GDP Annual Growth Rate. [online] Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/gdp-growth-annual [Accessed 21 Jan. 2020]. Tyll, L., Pernica, K. and Arltová, M., 2018. The impact of economic sanctions on Russian economy and the RUB/USD exchange rate.Journal of International Studies Vol,11(1).
24ECONOMICS AND FINANCE Uribe, M. and Schmitt-Grohé, S., 2017.Open economy macroeconomics. Princeton University Press. Weiss, T.G., 2018.Humanitarian challenges and intervention. Routledge.