Macroeconomic Environment of China and USA and its Impact on HP's Operation
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The report offers a brief overview of macroeconomic environment in China and USA and its impact on company’s operation. Analysis also include fiscal and monetary policy framework and trade policy instrument in the two nations
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1ECONOMICS Table of Contents Introduction................................................................................................................................2 Macroeconomic environment of China and USA......................................................................2 GDP growth...........................................................................................................................2 Unemployment rate................................................................................................................3 Inflation rate...........................................................................................................................5 Monetary and fiscal policy framework in China and USA........................................................6 Fiscal policy...........................................................................................................................6 Monetary policy.....................................................................................................................7 Foreign trade policy instrument in China and USA...................................................................9 Conclusion..................................................................................................................................9 References................................................................................................................................11
2ECONOMICS Introduction TheHewlett-Packardor commonlyknown asHPcompanyanAmericabased multinationalinformationtechnologycompanyhavingheadquartersinCalifornia.The company offered a wide variety of software, hardware and related services to small and medium sized businesses, consumers, large enterprises, health and education sectors. The company also operates in China. China’s operation of HP includes manufacturing, sales, R&D and different service units (hoovers.com 2019). The report offers a brief overview of macroeconomic environment in China and USA and its impact on company’s operation. Analysis also include fiscal and monetary policy framework and trade policy instrument in the two nations Macroeconomic environment of China and USA Macroeconomic environment of a nation include performance of some of the key indicators(Goodwinetal.2015).Themajorindicatorsrepresentingmacroeconomic environment are growth in Gross Domestic Product, rate of unemployment and rate of inflation. GDP growth
3ECONOMICS Figure 1: GDP growth in USA (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019) USA economy recorded a growth rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018. The growth rate is below the growth rate of 4.2 percent in the previous quarter. Growth trend can be explained by a slight downward revision of personal consumption expenditure, decline in net trade and expansion of inventory accumulation. Figure 2: GDP growth in China (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019) China’s economy advanced at a rate of 6.4 percent in January 2019. This is the weakest growth since 2008. The weak growth resulted from on-going trade tension between China and USA, weak demand in the domestic economy and growing debt burden of government. The economic growth in China though is relatively higher that of USA, the economic condition is much stable in USA than that in China. The economic stability in USA encourages HP to expands its business in USA rather than in China. The company has already sold 51 percent of its stocks in China
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4ECONOMICS Unemployment rate Figure 3: Unemployment in USA (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019) Unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent in December 2018 from 3.7 percent in previous quarter. The unemployment rate was highest since July. The number of unemployed persons raised by 276 thousand to become 6.3 million. Figure 4: Unemployment in China (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019)
5ECONOMICS The trend unemployment in China documented a continuous decline overtime. The latest figure of unemployment showed unemployment showed recorded unemployment to be 3.8 percent. This is the lowest unemployment since 2008. Rate of unemployment is both the nation is almost close to each other. The lower unemployment rate encourages people to expand their business constituting a positive influence on company’s business. Inflation rate Figure 5: Inflation rate in USA (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019) Inflation rate in USA in the fourth quarter of 2018 lowered to 1.9 percent from earlier rate of 2.2 percent. The inflation now reached to the recorded lowest level mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline.
6ECONOMICS Figure 6: Inflation rate in China (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019) Inflation rate in recent year reached to the recorded lowest level of 1.9 percent. The trend was contributed from a recorded decline non-food prices. Food prices also remain to the recorded lowest level. Inflation rate in USA and China is at considerably low level. Low inflation rate implies a lower real interest rate (Uhl and Gollenia 2016). The low interest rate means a lower borrowing cost which is helpful for the business. Monetary and fiscal policy framework in China and USA Fiscal policy USA The current fiscal in US is too much expansionary in nature. The government propose almost $1.5 trillion tax cut in December. The fiscal policy is now adding much fuel to the largest economy in world. The tax cut is expected to stimulate economic growth from 0.25 percentage point to 0.49 percentage point (Ohanian, 2018) The expansionary fiscal policy not
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7ECONOMICS only stimulates economic growth but also helps to expand business through tax cut and increasing profit. China LikeUSA,Chinaalsoadaptsanexpansionaryfiscalpolicytosupportstrong economic growth. The ministry announces multiple fiscal policies for stabilizing growth and introduces various tax breaks. The proactive fiscal policy is expected to help the economy to meet growth target of 7 percent (Hu, Han and Zhang 2018). The tax cut and different tax breaks are helpful for HP to spanning its business in China. Monetary policy USA The Federal Reserve in USA design monetary policy through adjustment of Federal fund rates. The fund rate by affecting short term and long term rates in the economy influences household and firms’ activity. Figure 7: Trend in Fed fund rate (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019)
8ECONOMICS The monetary policy committee recently proposed to increase fund rate by 25 basis points. The increase in fund rate raise other rates in the economy impeding HP’s business in USA. China Figure 8: Benchmark interest rate in China (Source: Tradingeconomics.com 2019) Unlike Federal Reserve in USA, the People’s Bank of China takes the decision to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged. In fear that rising interest rate could hurt the business and economic growth, the central bank in China has kept the rate at the same level (Chinadaily.com.cn 2019). This is expected to help HP to do its business in China.
9ECONOMICS Foreign trade policy instrument in China and USA Figure 9: China/USA exchange rate (Source: Fred.stlouisfed.org 2019) The value of China’s Yuan to that of US dollar influences business in America. China enjoys considerable currency power due to bulk of export to America. The trade deficit of US with China is profitable for American companies. Since July 2018, Yuan value against dollar increased significantly. This is beneficial for HP as it can enjoy a lower cost of raw materials in terms of US dollar. The recent trade policy of USA to impose a heavy tariff on imports from China resulted in a trade war between China and USA (Paquette 2018). As China retaliates by introducing series of taxes on US import and US companies, this would definitely hurt HP’s operation in China. Conclusion The report briefly summarizes macroeconomic environment in China and USA along with fiscal and monetary policy framework and trade policy. The economy of USA recently recorded a slower growth, a slightly higher unemployment and lower inflation. For China economic growth is lower than previous decade but both unemployment and inflation is in
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10ECONOMICS recorded low level supporting HP’s business. The expansionary fiscal and monetary policy in China also offer great help to the company. The recent trade war between China and USA may create tension of company’s operation China because of possibility of retaliation by China’s government.
11ECONOMICS References Chinadaily.com.cn2019.Benchmarkinterestrateislikelytoremainunchanged- Chinadaily.com.cn.[online]Chinadaily.com.cn.Availableat: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201802/02/WS5a73ab05a3106e7dcc13a4e3.html[Accessed 30 Jan. 2019]. Fred.stlouisfed.org 2019.China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate. [online] Fred.stlouisfed.org. Available at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCHUS [Accessed 30 Jan. 2019]. Goodwin, N., Harris, J.M., Nelson, J.A., Roach, B. and Torras, M., 2015.Macroeconomics in context. Routledge. hoovers.com 2019.Hewlett Packard Enterprise (China) Co., Ltd.. [online] hoovers.com. Availableat:http://www.hoovers.com/company-information/cs/company- profile.hewlett_packard_enterprise_(china)_co_ltd.2d7df5ed45195c61.html?aka_re=1 [Accessed 30 Jan. 2019]. Hu, L., Han, J. and Zhang, Q., 2018. The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on Stock Markets: Evidence from China.Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,54(8), pp.1857- 1872. Ohanian, L.E., 2018.The Macroeconomic Effects of War Finance in the United States: Taxes, Inflation, and Deficit Finance. Routledge. Paquette, D. 2018.U.S. companiesin China brace for more trade-war pain. [online] washingtonpost.com.Availableat: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/american-companies-in-china-brace-for- more-trade-war-pain/2018/09/04/d161bed2-b028-11e8-a810-4d6b627c3d5d_story.html? noredirect=on&utm_term=.3992cb6e1863 [Accessed 30 Jan. 2019].
12ECONOMICS Tradingeconomics.com 2019.United States GDP Growth Rate | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar|Forecast.[online]Tradingeconomics.com.Availableat: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth [Accessed 30 Jan. 2019]. Tradingeconomics.com. 2019.China GDP Annual Growth Rate | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast. [online] Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth- annual [Accessed 30 Jan. 2019]. Uhl, A. and Gollenia, L.A. eds., 2016.Business transformation management methodology. Routledge.