El Nino Southern Oscillation Impact on Cereal Production

This thesis examines the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on cereal production in South Africa. It utilizes panel econometrics to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maize production, taking into account rainfall patterns and climate variability. The research aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop mitigation strategies and ensure food security in the region.

Thesis
(El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal
Production in South Africa)

Table of Contents
THESIS STATEMENT ..................................................................................................................1
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................9
2.1 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation. .......................................................9
2.2 ENSO impact on South African climate and rainfall..........................................................13
2.3 ENSO impact on Cereal production in South Africa..........................................................18
2.4 Relationship between ENSO and food security..................................................................25
3.0 DATA AND METHODS ......................................................................................................26
3.1 Panel Econometrics.............................................................................................................26
3.2 The Econometric Model: .................................................................................................26
4.0 Results......................................................................................................................................30
4.1 ENSO impact on Maize......................................................................................................30
REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................33

THESIS STATEMENT
El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in South Africa.
INTRODUCTION
El Nino- Southern Oscillation is considered as an irregular periodic variation in sea and
winds surface temperature over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which significantly affecting
climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The heating stage of the sea temperature is called
as El Nino and the cooling phase known as La Nina. The southern Oscillation is refers as the
atmospheric element of a single wide scale coupled interaction known as the Ei Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). In the recent scenario the phases of climate change and anomalous
condition have become a major global concern. Within a large scale of various possible
consequences of climate anomalies, within the time duration of one-year variability of
agriculture crop production, hence crop yield, is significantly remarkable, as it is directly
impacted through weather conditions in all environments. This cause through the intrinsic
influence of weather on the plant generative and vegetative growth period. Agriculture is consist
to be the essential sector of economy which helps in providing various benefits to the economy.
Climatic factor has a direct influence on economic performance is commonsensical at various
level of production supply, marketing, economic growth, health and social unrest. There is an
effective relationship arises among the different effect of climate and crops production and prices
of different food products. As per the activity of agriculture and decision making it is required
for agriculture department to consider all information regarding climate factors as to building
effective temporary economic policy. Some effective strategies are there which are significant to
cope with variability risk of climate such as storage facilities, crop insurance, tax, cropping
pattern variation and subsidies policies. Southern Oscillation is an effective atmospheric
component, in oceanography and climatology a consistent inter-annual fluctuation of
atmospheric forces over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. The element of the Southern Oscillation
at a described point in time may be understood through applying the Southern Oscillation Index,
which helps in determining the difference in atmospheric pressure around Australia and
Indonesia with that of the east-central South Pacific.
El Nino Southern Oscillation:
El Nino is considered as a periodic weather pattern which is caused through a fluctuation
in sea surface temperature across the equatorial pacific Ocean. The heat water changes the
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superimposed the atmosphere which affects the weather conditions in different parts of the
globe. El Nino situations are presently available but are likely to abate during late northern
hemisphere spring on early summer in 2016. Mainly different regions are facing negative
influence of El Nino and also experiencing decreasing rainfall, which may postponement of
planting, affects crop maturation or cut down the viability of pasture lands. Thus, the impact of
El Nino alter substantially and some regions may experience weather which is significantly more
appropriator through for the production of agriculture. However the agriculture effects of El
Nino is significantly related to the shocks which are based on the timing, a particular duration
and strength of the El Nino. The welfare of economic is also based on the domestic food, safety
and trade policies of essential importer and exporter. Impermanent production setbacks by
previous years El Nino event are arising in regards of positive long term trends in the world food
production. Worldwide trend in cereals production have represents sustained growth and over the
last few years have led to a development of global food reserves. The total cereal production is
proposed to be around 1.3 percent which is lower than the last few years, it is still 2.2 percent
which is more than the average of previous three years and the short-well of this particular year
is covered by stocks. Thus the negative localized affect over the globe could be important in the
absence of the market linkage and trade openness.
The impact of El Nino in drought in South Africa
The El Nino element is one of the essential element which arising drought in South
Africa. In any situation El Nino available in the pacific Ocean, rainfall is mainly limited during
the season of summer whereas the normal rainfall needs to be anticipated during winter and
spring. The keeping up and forecast of atmosphere instigated varieties in Harvest yields, creation
and fare costs in real nourishment delivering districts, it has turned out to be dynamically
fundamental to empower national government in import-subordinate nations to guarantee
supplies of moderate sustenance for purchasers, in which individuals from bring down pay are
included. The high dependability of seasonal El Nino southern Oscillation forecasts the
interconnection between global yield with ENSO phase has a significant advantages to food
handling and calamity early warning systems. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is consist as the
most essential coupled ocean atmosphere element to cause world's climate variability on
interlingual period of time. However the phenomenon is connected to the quasi-periodic
redistribution of heat around tropical pacific. ENSO is divided through a varying shift among a
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neutral phase and two extreme element such as El Nino and La Nina. The El Nino component is
shows through a deep layer of warm ocean water around the east-central equatorial pacific, with
sea surface temperature generally 1.5 to 2.0 degree average. On the other side La Nina is consist
as a interlinked condition are opposed to the phase of El Nino: a wide layer of cooler than
average ocean temperature around the east central equatorial pacific through sea-surface
environment generally 1.0 to 2.0 degree which is below the average. ENSO is considered as a
strong phenomenon of inter-annual climate variability in different countries in Africa, Asia and
in North and South America. In the time duration of El Nino connected cliamte anomalies are
known as interconnections are felt on the far side of the pacific region involving regional land
and sea surface warming, changes in storm, attacks and changes in precipitation patterns. El
Nino is also a local warming of surface water which takes place in the entire circle zone of the
central and eastern Pacific ocean of the Peruvian coast and which impacted the atmosphere
circulation at a global level. It also consist as a recurrent weather component which takes place
approximately each two to seven years and usually last among 12 to 18 months. It basically
peaks across Christmas, hence the name of the component El Nino is Spanish for Christ a small
boy. La Nina defines to the cold equivalent of El Nino the girl child.
The Antarctic Oscillation
The report contents the study about various elements which all are connected with the
term of El Nino Southern Oscillation. The Antarctic Oscillation, Southern Annular or high
latitude mode is the dominant pattern of tropospheric circulation variability south of 20 degree
and is divided by the pressure anomalies of one sign centred in the Antarctic and anomalies of
the opposite sign centred around 40 to 50 degree. The western, coastal region of south Africa
acquire most of its rainfall during the austral winter. On the other part of of subtropical Southern
Africa are consistently defined through summer rainfall. Despite the value of the winter rainfall
to the local economy and its pronounced inter-annual variability, reliability little investigation on
the climate of the region has been conducted. Most of the winter rainfall is created through cold
fronts and associated extra-tropical cyclones, but other prevailing westerly activity like as cut of
lows, may on occasion also create essential rainfall over the region. The another area of this
particular research is based on the impact of ENSO on South African climate and rainfall , this
also consist as a vast concept, south Africa receives most of its rainfall in Austral summer which
is expected through a valid and reliable region in the South west which experiences austral
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winter rainfall. It is an essential term as rainfall maxima are recorded through the month of may
to August, in this duration the track of the temperate weather system is going to shifted
northward. The southwester region is encompasses part of western and Northern Cape Provinces
is vast in the easy through the cold Benguela upwelling system and to the south, at a distance
from the warm Agulhas Current. Orography performs an essential role in the Cape folded
Mountains that stretch northward to the west and east-west to the south favour. A plethora of
studies suggest that in the course of the ongoing climate change, catastrophic weather events are
more likely. In turn, extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world are associated with a
medium–frequency1 climate anomaly known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or simply ENSO.
“The most dramatic, most energetic, and best defined pattern of inter-annual variability is the
global set of climatic anomalies referred to as 1 i.e., cyclical behaviour that repeats itself every
several years. 2 (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation) ENSO”. There is a successful relationship
emerges among the diverse impact of atmosphere and harvests creation and costs of various
nourishment items. According to the movement of horticulture and basic leadership it is required
for agribusiness division to consider all data seeing atmosphere factors as to building viable
transitory monetary strategy. Some powerful methodologies are there which are huge to adapt to
fluctuation danger of atmosphere, for example, storerooms, trim protection, assess, editing
design variety and appropriations arrangements. Southern Wavering is a viable air part, in
oceanography and climatology a reliable between yearly change of environmental powers over
the tropical Indo-Pacific district. The component of the Southern Swaying at a depicted point in
time might be comprehended through applying the Southern Wavering File, which helps in
deciding the distinction in climatic weight around Australia and Indonesia with that of the east-
focal South Pacific.
El Nino Southern Oscillation and the crops production in South Africa
The southern Africa is probable to be an essentially influenced through the change
which will be arises in the future climate with the significant atmosphere change projection for
the region which indicates the temperature as well as evapotranspiration are supposed to develop
in the 21st century. Food is consist to be the fundamental need of individual and people work as
to satisfying their needs and wants through consuming goods and services as per their
preference. Climate has a huge impact on the crops and yields. The measure of production has
go very crucial and mandate for the federal government to defend the farmers and the agriculture
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community by the risk of weather and helps to design some plans and policies which are related
to the security of food. Even though the prediction accuracy of various forecast models has
developed in the recent period of time. It consist as a big challenge to based on a n individual
model provide its incertitude and its crucial nature including various global and regional weather
oscillation system. Africa is the most developing country and focused on increasing its
economical condition through attaining higher growth and success. It is essential for each
country to maintain appropriate flow of crops as to developing the living standard of people
within the country. There is not any significant relationship among the El Nino Southern
Oscillation and the crops production but it is mainly trouble the seasonal rainfall, which is an
essential parameter that affects the crop yield as a out come. Fluctuation in climate is likely to
alter the magnitude, timing and distribution of storms which create flood events and the intensity
and frequency of drought situations. Africa has existing critical vulnerabilities which may
exasperate the impact of likely the weather change in most sector in regards to the significant
dependence on the natural environment for better living, food and other important factors. It is
essential for each individual to have an appropriate understanding about the conditions of climate
changes and their possible influence on the culture and society . However it is important in the
crucial sector in southern Africa as to develop strategic adaptation consequence. The present
research work will discuss about the impact on El Nino by applying panel econometrics on the
effective cereal crops and quantify its effect in various provinces of the South Africa which
would provide advantage to the policy makers as to create the mitigation plan and insurers and
re-insurers to outspread its risk and bad consequences adequately over a country.
Reason for choosing the topic:
The research into consideration is based on El Nino Southern oscillation impact on
Cereal Production in South Africa. The specified area of study helps the learner in developing
their skills and knowledge in the area of climate and the impact of climate change on the growth
of agriculture department. The major reason behind choosing the topic is that is consist to be a
serious issue of which has a huge influence on the agriculture. Food is consist to be the essential
key element of climate. A year of not enough or too much rainfall, a hot spell or cold catch in a
wrong time period, or high range of flooding and storms can have an appropriate impact on local
crop yields and placental mammal production. Agriculture is one of the major sector at the core
of economic development. Underpinning food systems, agriculture activities constitute an
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indispensable pillar of sustainable growth and development. This is considerably true in the case
of south Africa where as the social, economic and environmental opportunities of potential
agriculture are yet to be fully victimized or exploited. Over the last few decades, agriculture has
been considered as the drastic economic and social development in the country. The change in
climate has a direct influence on the environment, social and economic condition of agriculture.
As per the data of world bank carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emergence is now about 60
percent which is considerably higher than the level of 1990's and its rapidly increasing about 2.5
percent per year and it cause various issues which has direct of indirect influence on the living of
people. The major reason of rising the level of CO2e emission is the rapid growth which arises in
population as the high growth in population cause negative impact on the economic growth and
success. It is essential for intergovernmental panel on climate change to manage worlds
population as it impacts on increasing temperature from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C and climate change
cause a huge threat to South Africa's water sources, food security, health, ecosystem services,
biodiversity and infrastructure. The agriculture in South Africa experiences various kind of risk
which are associated through change arises in climate such as rainfall patters, higher
temperature, increased evaporation rates, developing pests and diseases and changes in diseases
and pest distribution ranges, decreasing yield and spatial shift in optimum developing regions.
The emission of these kind of risks calls for imperative, aspiring action needs to be taken by
government as to ensure the elasticity of South Africa’s agricultural sector by adaptation to
climate change impacts. Global warming has become one of the major challenge in respect to
handling the global food security. The present research reviews the influence of the climate
change on food, crops and its production on sub-Saharan African Countries. An appropriate
knowledge about these studies are effective for economic growth of countries. The specified area
of study provides a brief description about the impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation which
consist to be a major issue of economy.
Research Aim
This consist to be an effective part of research work as this section helps the researcher in
providing an effective direction as to implementing all research activities into well planned and
effective manner. The significant aim of this research is to analysing the issue of research in
appropriate manner in order to overcome with the issue in effective way. It can be described in
the form of small statement in which the issue of research is mentioned and it provides a clear
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vision to the investigator to moving forward towards right direction. The major aim of this
research is “El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in South Africa”.
Research Objectives:
This comprise to be the best piece of research project which depends on the exploration
issue. The research targets are shaped in light of point worked for the examination. They are
significant in imparting development for the investigation lastly satisfying in get-together right
data for the examination inciting structure right conclusions. The investigation shaped should
neither too wide or kept so satisfactory data is amassed through setting up of right targets. The
present research is based on the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the cereal
production in South Africa. This consist to be a major issue in as it has a huge impact on the
growth and development of the economy. Although climate change determined as a global issue
and it is essential for each individual to having appropriate knowledge and skills in the area of
climate and its benefits for living. The essential objectives of this particular research are
described as below:
 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation.
 ENSO impact on South African climate and rainfall.
 ENSO impact on Cereal production in South Africa.
 Relationship between ENSO and food security.
Research Questions:
A thesis statement is determined as the major element in academic writing as this
provides an appropriate direction to the research activities as to analysing the issue in effective
manner. A research question takes the investigator beyond some simple facts on a specifies area
of study, it also considered as an inquiry on some particular issue or problem. This part of
research work is interlinked with the objectives as these are significantly based on the
predetermined objectives of a research work. Some essential questions of this particular research
project are described as below:
 What is El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation?
 How ENSO impacted on South African climate and rainfall?
 Which kind of impact ENSO has on the Cereal production in South Africa?
 What is the Relationship between ENSO and food security?
https://www.tips.org.za/images/WWF_PFU_Policy_brief.pdf
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/19/climate-change-affect-food-production
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fes3.61
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2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
It refers to as basic review of the research work, which is having a level of assessment of
research. It is considered in as succinct and outline for having a particular research, which enable
social event data as for what reason to translate a specific research. This can be settled as the best
piece of research venture which empowers the master in directing a from beginning to end
research to meander as to drawing a successful research result for the predefined zone of study. It
is the most central piece of the examination wind. The specialist gathering information and data
by various sources and use them as to finish of research work in compelling way. In this area of
research information must be accumulated through optional sources as it is successful in
managing arithmetical system by investigating the supposition of different writers and authors.
This part of research is effective in creating an appropriate theoretical framework which create
value for researcher to analyse all the phases of research work in appropriate manner. Theoretical
base is effective in providing a brief discussion about the specified area of study and provide a
clear vision to the investigator to draw a valid and reliable outcome for the research work. The
present research is based on the El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in
South Africa. This consist to be a wide area of study and in this type of research study it is
essential for researcher to conduct a brief theoretical discussion as to developing their level of
understanding in regards to a specified area of study.
2.1 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation is a periodic shift of the ocean atmosphere system in
the tropical pacific which influences the weather over the globe. It is mainly connected with
floods, droughts and other global activities. At the time of normal weather or in the duration of
non El Nino, the trade winds blow by west crosswise the ocean. Such type of winds pile up
warm surface water in the west pacific, so that the surface of ocean is all about the one half meter
higher across Indonesia that over Ecuador. Ocean upwelling arises off the coasts of Peru and
Ecuador bringing nutrient rich cold water to the aboveground and developing fishing stocks.
The western side of the pan-tropical pacific is dividing among various elements such as warm,
wet, low pressure weather in respect to gather moisture is dumped in the form of cyclone and
violent storms.
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(Source: El Nino Southern Oscillation, 2018)
The above given digram represents a model of surface temperature, winds areas of
increasing airs and the blue surface(Thermocline) in the tropical pacific in the duration of El
Nino, normal and La Nina situation. As per the view expressed by Dr. Michael J. Mcphaden,
2018, While the activities of ENSO event, there is an effective growth arises in air pressure
around the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia and a decreasing level in air pressure around
Tahiti and the rest of the central and warm water spreads eastward through the west Pacific and
Indian Ocean to the east pacific. The trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east and
warm water dispersed eastward through the west Ocean and Indian Ocean to the east Pacific.
This assist to the extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern
Ocean. El Nino is divided through usually warm ocean temperature among the central to eastern
Equatorial Pacific, on the other side La Nina is divided through unusually cold ocean
temperatures in this region, but cordial waters in the western pacific. In many years, the warming
weather nature lasts only a short period of time, after that the patterns of weather return to
normal and in this timing fishing develops. Thus the condition of El Nino last for may months in
this more extensive ocean warming occurs and its economic influence on local fishing for an
international market which create value in development of economic condition.
El Nino southern Oscillation consequences are considered as a natural process and it have
been presented for thousands of years. This type of events are not arises through change arises in
climate but these are arises through the effective interaction among the surface layers of the
ocean and the overlying atmosphere in the tropical ocean. Thus it is significantly possible that
the causes of global warming will change the pattern on El Nino cycle reacts. Furthermore some
10
Illustration 1: El Nino Southern Oscillation, 2018

individuals who are having appropriate knowledge about the particular term hypothesize that the
temperature of warmer global sea surface may lead to develop in El Nino practices, thus the
occurrence of El Nino changes with the change arises in climate and it consist to be the most
effective area of research study. The significant historical data represents that the recent El Nino
changes is mainly likely connected to the factor of global warming. On the contrary a very
advance study recommended that the climate changes is not expected to impact the extent or
frequency of ENSO around the 21st century, but it could aggravate its affect.
Antarctic Oscillation is considered as a low frequency mode of atmosphere variability of
the southern geographical area. It is also called as the southern Annular Mode. It refers as a belt
of westerly winds or low pressure around Antarctica that moves north or south as its mode of
variability. It has some negative as well as positive impact, the positive component is about the
westerly wind belt contracts towards Antarctica on the other side its negative influence includes
that the belt moving towards the direction of Equator. The Antarctic Oscillation is consist to be
an effective and dominant pattern of non-seasonal tropospheric situation variations south of 20s,
or it is divided through pressure anomalies of one sign centred in the Antarctica and anomalies of
the opposite sign centred about 40-50S. As per the views expressed by Leila M. V. Carvalho,
2018, the Antarctic Oscillation has been considered as a heavy oscillation in the mid and high
southern parallel. Antarctic Oscillation is consist to be the leading principle element of 850 hPa
geopotential height anomalies south of 20°S whereas an another scientist applied the difference
in zonal mean level pressure among 40°S and 65°S. The United State climate prediction centre
applies the most leading principle component of the 700 hPa height field to specify the Antarctic
Oscillation.
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(Source: Antarctic Oscillation, 2018)
The Antarctic Oscillation is determined as the measures of the pressure gradient among the polar
and subpolar regions of the Southern Hemisphere, this term was introduced by Thompson and
12
Illustration 2: Antarctic Oscillation

Wallace (2000). It is significant to be noted that year round monthly refers anomaly data has
been applied to analyse the loading pattern of the Antarctic Oscillation. Thus this has the biggest
variability at the time of cold season, the loading pattern primarily captures variety of the cold
season.
(Source: MRF AAO Forecast, 2018)
The Antarctic Oscillation is refers as the most effective principle component of 850 hPa
Geopotential height anomalies south of 20S.
2.2 ENSO impact on South African climate and rainfall
El- Nino Southern Oscillation performs an essential role in the inter-annual variance of
rainfall in the south part of Africa. Climate and weather variance is consist to be the major
element which influencing the inter-annual variance of crop production and yield in all
environments and therefore information in regards to climate has to be applied in the agriculture
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Illustration 3: MRF AAO Forecast

planning and decision making activities. In the most semi-arid condition in Southern Africa,
rainfall is the most essential component which affecting the agriculture and the soil and water
availability is considered to be the important source for crop development and growth. This
factor over the free state domain is mainly arises through the reason of erratic seasonal ranfall,
and high variance of onset of rains and surcease of rains. The beginning of rainfall season has a
direct influence in the productivity growth of agriculture. The climate variability attributes plays
effective role in causing change in climate and weather, thus El Nino and La Nina needs to be
considered as these consist to be the major element which affects the crop production. It is
required for each region to minimize the negative impact of climate as to improving the activities
of agriculture in respect to developing the economic condition of country. El Nino southern
Oscillation element plays an essential role in the climate variability of the south part of African
region. It is important for a region to have an appropriate understanding about the
teleconnections among the atmospheric and ocean condition as to managing the variance of
weather. The southern part of Africa is generally faces various issue due to El Nino and La Nino
in regards to rainfall. This mainly brings above-normal and normal rainfall and it cannot be
considered as an effective policy. The southern part of Africa is categoried among various
rainfall regions and each region have different correlation with El Nino southern Oscillation.
ENSO also determines only around 30 percent of rainfall variance which represents that other
factors needs to be taken into proper action at the time of predicting season rainfall. For example:
In the year of 1997 to 1998 El Nino was on the stage of strongest record, in this period of time
not all of South Africa received at a lower or normal level rainfall. Some of the regions had an
scarcity of rainfall due to the reason of moist air which was consist to be an essential element of
Indian Ocean. One needs to be aware about not to create general rules and policies in regards of
rainfall and temperature changes in ENSO years over Southern Africa. ENSO (El Nino-
Southern Oscillation) is a climate pattern which recurs every three to seven years involving
changes in the temperature of tropical pacific ocean waters.
ENSO influences the climate of South Africa severely, due to which South Africa is
currently suffering from intense drought which is a result of events of El Nino's past fifty years.
In 2015-2016, the rainfall level in South Africa was driest in the history which mainly affects
agricultural areas resultant in low food and grains productivity, inflation etc.
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Most areas of South Africa has constantly facing poor conditions of early crops, while many
areas are experiencing difficulties in planting due long delays in rains. Due to extremely dry
sessions there is urgent requirement of governmental assistance to protect livelihood and
consumable food.
Problems of low rainfall levels and drought has brought up high market prices, countries like
Zambia and Zimbabwe are most negatively influenced countries by ENSO.
ENSO has the ability to change the global atmospheric conditions, it influences temperature
across the globe. ENSO is needed to be predicted to ensure preventive measures, not only water
supplies are under serious pressure but it is feared that unless it rains soon, the drinkable water
supply will also be seriously threatened. The problem of intense drought can be resolved by
better irrigation systems.
ENSO cannot be completely prevented but some measures can be taken to minimise the
problems of water scarcity and low rainfall levels such as:
 Enhanced and better techniques of irrigation.
 Accuracy in predicting ENSO.
 Recovery support in the areas like Zambia and Zimbabwe.
South Africa is now experiencing the problem of inflation and food insecurity due to
delay of months in rainfall and decreasing availability of water supplies. Southern part of Africa
faces normal rainfall while EI Nino from several years whereas La Nina bring high rainfall
which cannot be accepted. The country has classified into diverse areas of rainfalls and each
region has a different correlation with ENSO. In ENSO, there is one 30% possibility of rainfall
thus government also has taken into consideration further factors while forecasting of seasonal
rainfall. Apart from this, some areas also had faced above rainfall cause of moist air which
comes from Indian Ocean.
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(Source: Annual Rainfall in South Africa, 2018)
Every region of south Africa is experiencing low rainfall, especially in year 2015.
Northern cape town region is reportedly to be highly influenced by ENSO resultant lowest
rainfall for the past 10 years and Moumalanga to be least influenced. Regions like Eastern Cape
and Free state also facing severe problems of low rainfall and low water supplies.
Southern Africa mainly gets most of its rainfall in Austral summer omit for a region in
the south-west which faces austral winter rainfall. The maxima of rainfall is considerably
recorded from May to August, when the temperature weather systems is transformation towards
northward. The southern-western region that refers as a part of the Western and Northern cape
Sphere which boarded in the east through the cold Benguela upwelling phase and to the south, at
a distance through the cordial Agulhas Current. Orography plays vast role in determining the
cape Folded Natural elevation that stretch northward to the west and east-west to the south which
favoured high as well as low rainfall on the side of seaward. Agriculture is consist to be the
important sector in economy. A wide range of export grade fruits such as apples, table grapes,
orange etc. and wine is developed with grapes and broadleaf fruits being significantly tamed or
cultivated under the caring situations. On the other side summer rainfall in southern Africa is
mainly impacted by ENSO, the climate of winter rainfall inter-annual variance was connected
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Illustration 4: Annual Rainfall in South Africa

with the Antarctic Annular Oscillation, Antarctic sea ice extend and south Atlantic sea surface
temperature, there is not any kind of relation found with ENSO.
The climate consist to be the most essential source of economy as it plays effective role
in managing the agriculture source as to developing the production of yields and crops. Rainfall
plays essential role in providing support to the agriculture and this create value in producing
variety of products which are effective in satisfying the fundamental needs and wants of people.
Rain is essential for improvising the economic condition of a country through producing crops
and yields which are beneficial for human health. An appropriate climate and rainfall is
beneficial for enhancing the growth of agricultural which cause various benefits for country or its
people.
(Source: Early Warning: El Niño threatens Somalia’s humanitarian gains, 2015)
The climate and rainfall has direct influence on the growth and development of
agriculture through enhancing the production of crops and yields. El Nino is determined as a
warming of sea surface temperature in the pacific Ocean, which arises in every few years and is
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Illustration 5: Early Warning: El Niño threatens Somalia’s humanitarian gains

associated through very heavy rainfall in the Africa and Drought such conditions in various
component of region. The scale of effect varies but expert through the UN's agriculture and food
firms warn that this year's El Nino could match the intensity of the present serves El Nino
weather events, including the 1997 to 1998 weather patterns that left large parts of southern. In
the different time duration weather can be found different as per the nature of the climate. At the
duration of July to September the climate of Africa is dry, October to January climate is wet. The
different phase of climate has a huge influence on the production of crops and yields.
2.3 ENSO impact on Cereal production in South Africa.
Climate change and anomalous weather conditions have become a major global concern
in the present decades. In between a vast range of possible consequences of weather or climate
anomalies, inter-annual variability in relates to the agriculture harvest yield, therefore the
production of crop is significantly notable, as it is promptly impacted through the condition of
weather within the different kind of environment. Although, the term EI Nino- Southern
Oscillation is the occurrence on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities that is cereals
and grains. ENSO is a phenomenon of major factor of causing drought. It is associated with the
cycle of warm and cold temperature which is measured by the sea surface temperature. All these
are associated with agriculture production. The overall objective of this research is to determine
the relationship between ENSO and Cereal production of South Africa. ENSO has a great impact
upon Southern Africa. The rainfall in northern and southern Africa is negatively determined
with equatorial SSTA, on the other side in eastern Africa rainfall is positively related to pan-
tropical SSTA. In the between the second half of the year rainfall shows the effective
interrelation and in the month of April to May rainfall shows lowest correlation. El Nino
Southern Oscillation has more intense influence of the south eastern Africa and Eastern
equatorial. Main area of Southern Africa ascertained desiccant and south eastern than the noram
situation with in the events of El Nino. Dryness arises mainly in the month of December to
March after the setting the event of El Nino. During the event of El Nino there is high probability
of increasing the level of drought. On the other side, in the area of east Africa, during the short
rainy season the occurrence of flood is effective than the high gainly weather. In the recent
scenario Southern Africa is in the grip of an intense dryness which has strengthen and expended
during the earliest stage within the agriculture season of 2015 to 2016, which is impelled through
one of the strongest El Nino event of the previous 50 years. Across the biggest of Zimbabwe,
18

Malawi, South Africa, Zmabia, Mozambique, Madagascar and Botswana, the present rainfall
season has been so far the drought in the previous 35 year. In the areas of agriculture high level
of water deficit is experienced by the northern Namibia and southern Angola.
(Source: Seasonal rainfall October 2015 to January 2016 in Southern Africa ranked
within the last 35 years, 2016)
The sub region of Southern Africa has consequently faces delays in the planting and very
pathetic situation for crops and yield development and re-growth of grassland. In various areas
planting has not been accomplish able due to delay in 30 to 50 days in the start of seasonal rains
which is resulting in widespread of crop failure. Hence there has been some alleviation since the
mid of January in convinced areas, the window of opportunity for the successful planting of
crops among the condition of rain-fed is approximately stoppered. In the condition of normal
rainfall the crop water balance model represents the pathetic performance of maize over a far-
19
Illustration 6: Seasonal rainfall October 2015 to January 2016 in Southern
Africa ranked within the last 35 years.

flung area. Seasonal prediction through a wide range of source are instantaneous in forecasting a
regulation of downward average rainfall and upward average temperature around the most of the
region for the reminder of the increasingly growing weather.
In between the duration of 2014 to 2015, extremely dry season occurs in the month of
October to December and predict for regularly dry and hot than average condition by the mid of
2016, which represents scenario of extensive, failure of regional crop scale. South Africa has
announced a exploratory prognosis of maize production for the upcoming harvest of 7.4 million
tonnes, a drop of almost 25 percent through the level of pathetic production of previous season
and 36 percent below the average of last five year.
(Source: GEOGLAM multi-agency assessment of the Southern Africa maize harvest
perspectives, 2016)
In between the year of 2014-2015 the season of agriculture was analogous through dry,
hot climate and a 23 percent of downfall arises in the regional cereal production. It has
20
Illustration 7: GEOGLAM multi-agency assessment of the Southern Africa maize harvest
perspectives.

developed a region's exposure due to the reason of temporary state of regional cereal stock and
higher than the ordinary food prices, by this food insecurity are increased subsequently. Even
though the present crises is start due to the number of food insecure people in the region, as per
the description of the southern Africa development community the significant growth stood at 14
million. In the duration of early February the FEWS NET represents that the around 2.5 million
people are in crisis and needed significant humanitarian guidance save the consumption of
livelihoods and households food.
The market price of maize in south Africa and Malawi is high and current drought and
high market price of products increasing the number of the food insecure. Dryness emergencies
have been announced in the most of South Africa's administrative district and in Zimbabwe and
Lesotho. Due to low water level the usage of water in Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland and
Namibia is limited. The usage of power in Zambia and Zimbabwe is occurring the low water
level at Kariba Dam. It is required to give detailed approximation of the population which is
likely to be food insecure in the year of 2016 to 2017, it is awaited that the food is fundamental
need of people and proper assistance of emergency food is effective in developing the livelihood
of people in significant manner.
ENSO has adversely impacted cereal production in South Africa by decreasing water
supplies and delay in rainfalls, along with South Africa; the global grains stocks and global
markets of these grains has also been reduced. The effect of ENSO on following food grains are:
Maize: Maize is the most adversely affected grain in South Africa, due to low productivity of
maize, prices are on sharp rise which makes it undesirable for local markets as well as for the
international markets. Maize is considered as the most essential cereal crop in Southern Africa,
with a huge percent developed directly for the purpose of home consumption, significantly
through the lower level people. It is produced on a commercial basis in each country which
except Mauritius and Seychelles and accounts for around 70 percent of accurate cereal
production in the region. In the region of South Africa people are mainly consumed white maize
and South Africa is the sole trader of yellow maize as it is the only place where yellow maize
grown in significant quantity and it is mainly apply as a livestock feed.
21

(Source: Maize Production in South Africa, 2016)
Southern Africa is mainly structurally excess in supplying maize. This determines that on
average total regional production and carry out the stocks are able to satisfy regional maize
requirements, involving consummation and industrial use and government strategic grain reserve
stocks. As per the statement given by the South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee white maize
is the most popular crop which is mainly takes place in the duration of October to December
were decrease around 30 percent. On the other side yellow maize represents the downfall by
around 22 percent. Due to the reason of lack of rain farmers are not able to seed their in intendant
crops. Thus an important proportion of the swine which have taken into appropriate action were
very late. Sowing are mainly consummated in the time duration of December, many farmers
were sowing their crops in the time duration of January as rains takes place in the middle of this
month. The February report forecasts the actual maize production in the year of 2016 which is
around 7.3 Mt, less than the report of previous year that is around 9.9 Mt. White maize
production is approximately put at 3.2 Mt which is less than the last year report as in the
22
Illustration 8: Maize Production in South Africa

previous year the production rate is around 4.7 Mt. On the other hand the total production of
yellow maize is around 4.1 Mt which is also less than the previous report as the in the past year
the growth of maize is around 5.2 Mt. The total end stock in between the year of 2015 to 2016
are low, furthermore the domestic supplies for the year of 2016 to 2017 season are forecast
around 26 percent which is less than the previous year estimation around 8.6 Mt which is less at
1.8 Mt projected domestic demand. In the region of South Africa large proportion of the
population are concern about the effect of drought. These involves the authorising the utilization
of some US maize under the controllable situation and managing the the utilization of yellow in
“pap”.
(Source: Average Cereal Production (1990-2014))
As per the description of the above mentioned chart it has been determined that the Maize
is the most produced product in south Africa as the production level of maize is high as
compared to the other crops. 67 percent of maize is produced in South Africa, 8 percent wheat,
21 percent rice and 4 percent other crops. In the poor areas people are mainly prefer maize which
are produced by the using small local hammer mills.
23
Illustration 9: Average cereal production

(Source: Average national maize surplus/deficit estimates (2010-2015) (000s MT))
Wheat: Unlike maize, wheat production is usually unaffected by ENSO, this is because of high
requirements of wheat in the market and support of those markets, But due to constant low level
of global wheat stocks, the prices are said to be heightened in near future.
Rice: Not only ENSO but exporting and importing conditions of other countries also a major
reason of price fluctuations of rice in South Africa, but rice grain markets receive support from
other commodity markets which are somehow related to rice grain market.
Cassava: Cassava is a food grain which can grow in dry weather due to its deep root mechanism
it can adapts poor soils, low water supplies and adverse climate conditions. But due to current
drought conditions even prices of cassava and its products are rising.
Oil crops: Oil crops and oil meal sectors are already said to be sharp declined for export
availabilities and due to ENSO, oil crops are hardly available for export in other countries.
Cocoa: The global shortage and considerable price increase of cocoa are result of ENSO impact
in South Africa, which reportedly said to be considered as another effected food product in South
Africa.
Other food grains are also affected by ENSO, and in near future it is said to warn world about
dangerous developing situations.
24
Illustration 10: Average national maize surplus/deficit estimates (2010-
2015) (000s MT)

2.4 Relationship between ENSO and food security
El Nino Southern Oscillation is consisting to be the major recurrent change in the climate
which is impacting the agriculture productivity and food security. The food price spears of the
year just prior to the year 2010 and the economic, political and social dislocations they generated
led to rehabilitated attention on the macroeconomics policy and agriculture connexion for
developing countries. Furthermore, agriculture is considered as a key element which has a huge
influence on the economic condition of a country with a huge percentage of export, employment
and domestic production. It is also considered as a sector with essential growth and employ
engagement multipliers for the entire economy and the huge positive influence on decreasing
poverty than development in other sector.
The macro economy performs vast role in analysing the food security at all levels,
significant at the level of house hold by its influence on production, availability and access which
are related with the impact of the capacity to the influence by export and capital flow and the
effect of employments and income generation. It also encompasses to the priority accorded to
agriculture and food in government planning and the budgetary allocation for public investment
involving the monetary and fiscal legislations are represented in the increase of the country’s
status and the government’s deficit or excess status. ENSO is consisting to be an essential
element which has a direct influence on the cereal production, yields, agriculture elements which
determine the fact that the wealth and development are consist to be the systematically inferior in
the tropics.
The variation in climate are arises by the ENSO which is expected to decreased the food
production particularly in regions in which crops and yields are already low. Such kind of
changes engender significant concern as these are having direct and significant impact on the
agriculture, water suppliers and ecosystems. Climate variability impacted on the food availability
as its influence on the yield production and subsequent availability of crops are decreased. For
example: slightly change arises in the temperature by 1-2 percent decreases the production of
rice, wheat and many African diets and export markets are estimated.
25

3.0 DATA AND METHODS
3.1 Panel Econometrics
Panel data is consisting to be a data with a hierarchical or grouping constitution. A
special case is longitudinal data which is related to some units or observation like as individuals,
firms, or nations are followed over an amount of time duration. Panel data analysis performs an
essential role in modern econometric methodology, as it is able to take benefits of the grouping
structure to address substantive economic questions that are more entirely than is achievable with
the similar kind of data. In significantly, grouping structure consist to be an essential element
which can be applied to estimate the models with complex form of heterogeneity across a unit. In
econometrics and statistics, longitudinal or panel data is considered as the multi-dimensional
data including the measurements over a decade. Panel data comprise an effective observation of
different phenomenon which is obtained over multiple period of time for the similar organisation
or people. In panel data individuals like an organisation, person, cities etc. are ascertained at
several points in time like years, months, days, before and after treatment etc. this description
concern on the panels with relatively limited period of time which is mentioned as (small T) and
many individuals represents as (large N).
This is mainly based on two basic models for the analysis of panel data such as random
effects model and fixed effect model, and presents accordant calculator for these above
mentioned models. Panel data are consisting to be the most appropriate method at the time when
researcher suspect that the result variable is based on explanatory variables that are not
observable but correlated with the described explanatory variable which are not discernible in
nature but correlated with the analysed explanatory variable. If these variable are invariant over
the decade than in this situation panel data estimator allows to systematically calculate the effect
of the observed explanatory variables.
3.2 The Econometric Model:
This considered to be the multiple liner regression model for individual i = 1, ..., N who
is ascertained at different period of time t = 1, ..., T
yit = α + x 0 itβ + z 0 iγ + ci + uit
In this yit is a dependent variable, x 0 it is a K-dimensional row vector of time-varying
explanatory variables and z 0 i is a M-dimensional row vector of time-invariant explanatory
26

variables which excluding the constant, α is the point, β is a K-dimensional column variable of
parameters, γ is a M dimensional column variable of parameters, ci is an individual-specific
effect and uit is an individual term which is related with any kind of error. The present report
represents that the each individual i is obtained as per the duration of time t. this can be evaluated
as the balanced panel. On the other side unbalanced panel is consist to be a straightforward
process but it is hard in nature.
The T find out for individual i can be evaluated as:
The data generation process is associated by:
PL1: Linearity
yit = α + x 0 itβ + z 0 i γ + ci + uit where E[uit] = 0 and E[ci ] = 0
The specified model is linear in parametric quantity α, β, γ, impact ci and in-correctness uit.
PL 2: Independence
{Xi , zi , yi} N i=1 i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed)
The present evaluation is independent across individuals but nor essentially over the time.
This estimation is fixed through the use of random sampling of individuals.
PL 3: Strict Exogeneity
E[uit|Xi , zi , ci ] = 0 (mean independent)
27

The individual error term uit is analysed uncorrelated with the ex-explanatory variables of all
past, present and future period of time of the similar firm, person or city. This is a powerful
assumption which is based on rules out lagged dependent variable. PL3 also determines that the
individual error is uncorrelated with the specific effect on individual.
PL 4: Error Variance
a) V [ui |Xi , zi , ci ] = σ 2 u I, σ 2 u > 0 and finite (homoscedastic and no serial correlation)
b) V [uit|Xi , zi , ci ] = σ 2 u,it > 0, finite and Cov[uit, uis|Xi , zi , ci ] = 0 s 6= t (no serial∀
correlation)
c) V [ui |Xi , zi , ci ] = Ωu,i(Xi , zi) is p.d. and finite
The Fixed effect Model
In the fixed effect model, the individual specific impact is a random variable which is
permitted to be related with the explanatory variables.
FE1: Related effects
FE1 implicitly refers the lack of the unrelatedness premise in RE1.
FE2: Effect Variance
FE2: Explicitly defines the absence of the assumption in RE2.
FE3: Identifiability
rank(X¨) = K < NT and E(¨x 0 ix¨i) is p.d. and finite
where the exemplary component ¨xit = xit − x¯i and ¯xi = 1/T P t xit
FE3 presume that the time-varying explanatory variables are not perfectly collinear, which they
have non-zero element in between the variance and not to many utmost beliefs. Furthermore in
xit there is no need to involve a constant or any time invariant variables. Note that only the
parameters β but neither α nor γ are acknowledgeable in the fixed effects model.
The Random Effect Model
This also consist to be an essential model, the individual specific effect is considered as a
random variable which is uncorrelated with the explanatory variables.
RE1: Unrelated effects
E[ci |Xi , zi ] = 0
RE1 Presume that the individual-specific impact is a random covariant which is uncorrelated
with the explanatory variables of the previous, present and future time periods of the similar
idiosyncratic.
28

RE 2a anticipate constant variance of the idiosyncratic potential impact.
RE3: Identifiability
a) rank(W) = K + M + 1 < NT and E[W0 iWi ] = QWW is p.d. and finite. The typical element w
0 it = [1 x 0 it z 0 i ].
b) rank(W) = K + M + 1 < NT and E[W0 iΩ −1 v,iWi ] = QW OW is p.d. and finite. Ωv,i is
defined below.
RE3 Represents that the regress-ors involving a constant are not absolutely collinear, which all
regress-ors have non-zero variance and not to many extreme results.
The random effects model can be assumed as:
yit = α + x 0 itβ + z 0 iγ + vit
Where vit = ci +uit. Assuming PL2, PL4 and RE1 in the special versions PL4a and RE2a leads
to:
where σ 2 v = σ 2 c + σ 2 u . This consist to be a special case which exists under PL4a
and RE2a is therefore known as the equicorrelated random effects model.
The Pooled OLS Model:
29

This also consist to be an essential element which plays vast role in analysing the data
and information in appropriate manner. The pooled OLS estimator disregard the panel structure
of the data and significant estimates α, β and γ as:
Where W = [ιNT X Z] and ιNT is a NT × 1 vector of ones.
Random effects Model: The pooled OLS Model of f α, β and γ is indifferent under PL1, PL2,
PL3, RE1, and RE3 in small samples. In addition PL4 and normally apportioned individual and
idiosyncratic specific errors, it is normally doled out in small elements. It is consistent and
approximately distributed in PL1, PL2, PL3, PL4, RE1, Panel Data: Fixed and Random Effects 6
and RE3a in instance with a huge number of individuals (N → ∞). thus this model is not efficient
on nature. Furthermore, it is essential that the standard error of this significant analysis are not
appropriate and test (t-, F-, z-, Wald-) which is based on theme that are not valid. Potential
standard errors can be estimated through the so-called cluster-robust, covariance estimator
handling each individual as a cluster model.
Fixed effects model: The pooled OLS model of α, β and γ are biased and inconsistent, because
the variables ci is omitted and potentially correlated through the other regress-ors.
4.0 Results
4.1 ENSO impact on Maize
The El Nino is consisting to be the most essential phenomenon which arising drought in
South Africa. If in any situation El Nino is presented in the Pacific Ocean, the condition of
rainfall is limited in the season of summer, on the other side normal rainfall could be occurs in
the season of winter or spring. The impact of El Nino on national maize production ranges
through near average around (2100 Kg ha−1 in 1976/77) to the very low yields. The CERES-
30

Maize simulation model was applied with the prediction of seasonal weather and EL Nino
analogue years to pretend the practices in regards to production.
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
Method
1 V9, V3, V7, V4,
V8, V5, V6b . Enter
a. Dependent Variable: V11
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 .995a .990 .983 305.647
a. Predictors: (Constant), V9, V3, V7, V4, V8, V5, V6
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 97955591.632 7 13993655.947 149.793 .000b
Residual 1027620.368 11 93420.033
Total 98983212.000 18
a. Dependent Variable: V11
b. Predictors: (Constant), V9, V3, V7, V4, V8, V5, V6
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) 1130.824 449.533 2.516 .029
V3 -14.163 7.083 -.137 -2.000 .071
V4 5.412 1.717 .336 3.152 .009
V5 1.468 .160 .745 9.167 .000
31

V7 .306 2.407 .013 .127 .901
V6 -8.775 4.118 -.429 -2.131 .056
V8 1.302 .343 .276 3.791 .003
V9 4.795 2.278 .246 2.105 .059
a. Dependent Variable: V11
Results:
According to the above calculation it has been found that the significance difference
among maize over ENSO is showing 0.0 which is less than the value 0.05. it means there is
significant difference exist in respect of ENSO and Maize.
32

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