Energy for 2030 Scenarios for a Sustainable Future: A Case of Sri Lanka
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This paper explores the future of Sri Lanka's renewable energy sector by developing four scenarios for the year 2030. The scenarios, named 'Land of Republic,' 'Green Paradise,' 'Drowning Island,' and 'Black Island,' are based on two key variables: government policies towards renewable energy and the real cost of fossil fuels. The study utilizes a seven-step scenario development model, including environmental scanning, key factor analysis, and assumption definition. The scenarios provide insights into the potential outcomes of different policy choices and market conditions, highlighting the importance of strategic planning for a sustainable energy future in Sri Lanka.
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Energy for 2030 scenarios for a sustainable future: A case of Sri Lanka
Conference Paper · December 2015
DOI: 10.1109/IEEM.2015.7385693
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Energy for 2030 scenarios for a sustainable future: A case of Sri Lanka
Conference Paper · December 2015
DOI: 10.1109/IEEM.2015.7385693
CITATIONS
0
READS
121
3 authors:
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
A Roadmap to Achieve Apparel 4.0: The Apparel Industry Perspective of Industry 4.0View project
Technology ForesightView project
Amila Withanaarachchi
University of Kelaniya
23 PUBLICATIONS20 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Julian Nanayakkara
University of Kelaniya
35 PUBLICATIONS38 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Chamli Pushpakumara
University of Kelaniya
15 PUBLICATIONS25 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
All content following this page was uploaded by Amila Withanaarachchi on 17 November 2020.
The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.
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Abstract - Literature states that most successful
corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to
lead the energy sector. Accordingly, the objective of this
paper is to develop scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to
picture the Sri Lankan renewable energy sector by year
2030. This study presents a seven step scenario development
model to develop scenarios. The seven steps comprises
defining objective of scenario planning, environmental
scanning, key factor analysis, prioritizing the key factors,
define the assumptions in writing scenarios, framework
scenarios, and finally elaborate scenarios. Following the
stated seven steps four scenarios named ‘Land of Republic,’
‘Green Paradise,’ ‘Drowning Island’ and Black Island’ were
developed. The scenarios were developed base on two key
variables. The path to the scenario, the outcome of the
scenario and finally the early warning signals were
presented when describing the scenarios.
Keywords – Foresight Analysis, Renewable energy,
Scenario planning, Sri Lanka.
I. INTRODUCTION
About a decade ago most of the OECD countries
dominated the renewable power industry with higher
contribution of hydro, solar and wind power capacities.
But today many international publicans evidence the
Chinese, Indians and may other developing nation’s
mounting role in the renewable energy power sector. For
example by the end of 2013, India was the fourth largest
market in terms of total wind power installation with a
total capacity of 20.2GW. Similarly in the same year
China alone accounted for almost one-third of global
installations, adding a record 12.9 GW to nearly triple its
capacity to approximately 20 GW [1].Thus countries like
China and India teach us a valuable lessons as they have
managed to bypass most of the mistake made by
European countries and have managed to reach the
current level of developments in just a couple of years’
time. Literature reveals that a clear vision on the future
aided these nations to reach the current status of
developments.
However, today the world is characterised by a high
degree of uncertainty and complexity. The main idea of
scenario planning is to link cause and effect to seemingly
unrelated factors, where the nature of possible futures can
dramatically affect success of actions and decision-
making [2]. In literature we could find much evidence
where scenario planning was used for future development
routes. More specifically, several earlier scenario studies
have investigated the future development of energy and
environment issues on global scale. For instance, the
International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has created
scenarios focusing on the future development of energy
and environment on the future developments of
greenhouse gas emissions [3]. In addition, Brown et al.
(2001) have studied scenarios focusing on clean energy
future. Their study concentrated on how the clean energy
technologies will be suitable to address the challenges of
the energy and the environment sectors. Also Shell has
utilized scenarios to identify opportunities and challenges
in the global business environment [4].
The above examples states that most successful
corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to
lead the energy sector, as only when people can visualize
a future, they can begin to create it. Sri Lanka renewable
energy sector in many ways face challenges to crop up
with technological constrains, supply chain constrains
(especially in the biomass sector), higher cost of
generation and many other social, technological,
economic, environmental and political constrains. Ozcan
and Jonathan (2010) state that scenarios are particularly
useful when many factors need to be considered, and the
degree of uncertainty about the future is high [5].
Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to develop
scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to picture the Sri
Lankan renewable energy sector by year 2030.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Like many other early forecasting techniques, the
scenario method is a post-war planning concept.
Following the work of Herman Kahn and others at RAND
and the Hudson Institute in the 1960s, scenarios reached a
new dimension with the work of Pierre Wack in Royal
Dutch/Shell [5]. From there on throughout history,
scenarios have been used by many industries and nations
to shape their future for the betterment of all the
stakeholders. Consequently many scholars have attempted
to define and develop much scholarly literature on this
method.
Definitions of scenarios
UNIDO Technology foresight manual suggest that
the scenarios are used in the sense of visions of future
possibilities and particularly, visions [6]. Similarly Ricard
and Borch (in 2012) suggested that scenario-making is
one way of producing future images on what could
happen in the future, in order to make better decisions in
ENERGY FOR 2030 SCENARIOS FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: A CASE
OF SRI LANKA
A. S. Withanaarachchi, L. D. J. F. Nanayakkara, C. Pushpakumara
Department of Industrial Management, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka
(amilaw@kln.ac.lk, julian@kln.ac.lk, chamli@kln.ac.lk)
corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to
lead the energy sector. Accordingly, the objective of this
paper is to develop scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to
picture the Sri Lankan renewable energy sector by year
2030. This study presents a seven step scenario development
model to develop scenarios. The seven steps comprises
defining objective of scenario planning, environmental
scanning, key factor analysis, prioritizing the key factors,
define the assumptions in writing scenarios, framework
scenarios, and finally elaborate scenarios. Following the
stated seven steps four scenarios named ‘Land of Republic,’
‘Green Paradise,’ ‘Drowning Island’ and Black Island’ were
developed. The scenarios were developed base on two key
variables. The path to the scenario, the outcome of the
scenario and finally the early warning signals were
presented when describing the scenarios.
Keywords – Foresight Analysis, Renewable energy,
Scenario planning, Sri Lanka.
I. INTRODUCTION
About a decade ago most of the OECD countries
dominated the renewable power industry with higher
contribution of hydro, solar and wind power capacities.
But today many international publicans evidence the
Chinese, Indians and may other developing nation’s
mounting role in the renewable energy power sector. For
example by the end of 2013, India was the fourth largest
market in terms of total wind power installation with a
total capacity of 20.2GW. Similarly in the same year
China alone accounted for almost one-third of global
installations, adding a record 12.9 GW to nearly triple its
capacity to approximately 20 GW [1].Thus countries like
China and India teach us a valuable lessons as they have
managed to bypass most of the mistake made by
European countries and have managed to reach the
current level of developments in just a couple of years’
time. Literature reveals that a clear vision on the future
aided these nations to reach the current status of
developments.
However, today the world is characterised by a high
degree of uncertainty and complexity. The main idea of
scenario planning is to link cause and effect to seemingly
unrelated factors, where the nature of possible futures can
dramatically affect success of actions and decision-
making [2]. In literature we could find much evidence
where scenario planning was used for future development
routes. More specifically, several earlier scenario studies
have investigated the future development of energy and
environment issues on global scale. For instance, the
International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has created
scenarios focusing on the future development of energy
and environment on the future developments of
greenhouse gas emissions [3]. In addition, Brown et al.
(2001) have studied scenarios focusing on clean energy
future. Their study concentrated on how the clean energy
technologies will be suitable to address the challenges of
the energy and the environment sectors. Also Shell has
utilized scenarios to identify opportunities and challenges
in the global business environment [4].
The above examples states that most successful
corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to
lead the energy sector, as only when people can visualize
a future, they can begin to create it. Sri Lanka renewable
energy sector in many ways face challenges to crop up
with technological constrains, supply chain constrains
(especially in the biomass sector), higher cost of
generation and many other social, technological,
economic, environmental and political constrains. Ozcan
and Jonathan (2010) state that scenarios are particularly
useful when many factors need to be considered, and the
degree of uncertainty about the future is high [5].
Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to develop
scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to picture the Sri
Lankan renewable energy sector by year 2030.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Like many other early forecasting techniques, the
scenario method is a post-war planning concept.
Following the work of Herman Kahn and others at RAND
and the Hudson Institute in the 1960s, scenarios reached a
new dimension with the work of Pierre Wack in Royal
Dutch/Shell [5]. From there on throughout history,
scenarios have been used by many industries and nations
to shape their future for the betterment of all the
stakeholders. Consequently many scholars have attempted
to define and develop much scholarly literature on this
method.
Definitions of scenarios
UNIDO Technology foresight manual suggest that
the scenarios are used in the sense of visions of future
possibilities and particularly, visions [6]. Similarly Ricard
and Borch (in 2012) suggested that scenario-making is
one way of producing future images on what could
happen in the future, in order to make better decisions in
ENERGY FOR 2030 SCENARIOS FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: A CASE
OF SRI LANKA
A. S. Withanaarachchi, L. D. J. F. Nanayakkara, C. Pushpakumara
Department of Industrial Management, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka
(amilaw@kln.ac.lk, julian@kln.ac.lk, chamli@kln.ac.lk)
the present [7]. Finland did a study on future prospects of
alternative agro-based bio energy suggest that the scenario
will be developed towards an internally consistent story
about the path from the present to the future [8]. In
parallel to the above arguments International Energy
Agency define scenarios as a tool for helping us to take a
long view in a world of great uncertainty [9]. Similarly
scenarios are stories that anticipate the future. They are
narratives created by researchers, or by participants in a
workshop [5].
Different types of scenarios
In literature, scenario has been divided into two main
approaches. As per UNIDO technology, foresight manual
scenarios can be both exploratory and normative.
Exploratory scenarios start from the present and ask
questions such as “What next?” and “What if?”
Particularly interesting trends or uncertainties can be
selected (e.g. locating areas of high importance and high
uncertainty) for the development of explorative scenarios.
Normative, or inward scenarios, involve back casting,
typically starting with the most desirable future. The main
questions are “Where to?” and “How to?” [6].
While exploratory scenarios are designed to explore
several plausible future configurations of the world, IEA
suggest a forecasting type scenario which we are pretty
much familiar to us. This type of scenario is often referred
to as a "business-as-usual (BAU) scenario", which
assumes the continuation of historical trends into the
future and that the structure of the system remains
unchanged or responds in predetermined forms [9].
Number of scenarios
Single or multiple scenarios is a long debated topic
among the scholars who are engaged with the scenario
developments. Though the future is uncertain and
multidimensional, there are still instances in which single
scenarios can be useful in a vision oriented scenario.
Apart from a single mission driven approaches analysis of
just a single scenario does little to communicate much
about the range of opportunities and challenges. In
literature there are many studies involving multiple
scenarios. For example UK “environmental” foresight
study has elaborated four scenarios on the basis of two
dimensions, concerning social and political values and the
nature of governance [6]. On the other hand
understanding the uncertainly and multidimensional
nature of the future, in Norway 2030, five scenarios were
developed [10].
III. METHODOLOGY
Scenarios may be developed by an extremely wide-
ranging set of methods. They may emerge from
workshops or be prepared by small expert groups, derived
from Delphi or other survey results or constructed on the
basis of different worldviews (UNIDO, 2005:191).
Fig. 1. Scenario Development process
The proposed methodology applied in our study was
developed referring key literature on the scenario
planning. The Fig. 01 illustrates the scenario development
approach used in our study.
Step 01: Define the objectives of scenario planning
Setting up the preliminary objective for the scenario
planning exercise including a time horizon is the initial
step proposed by the stated model. As the first step of the
foresight process, having defined the objective enables the
scenario development team to module each and every step
of the scenario development process to attain the said
target.
Step 02: Environmental scanning
In the scenario process, the environment scanning is
used to identify all aspects relevant to the observed
system in a comprehensive manner. The literature revels
that most scenario developers uses a systematic and
holistic approach to identify influencing factors, so called
STEEPV [7]. The corporate strategy building exercise
carried out by Hirsch, Burggraf and Daheim in 2013 have
used a similar STEEP exercise to identify all aspects
relevant to the environment in which policies are and need
to be formed [11].
Step 03: Key factors analysis
In the next step, the set of influencing factors
produced by the environmental scanning needs to be
reduced to manageable set of key factors. In a scenario
process this reduction is achieved by impact analysis,
which inter relates individual factors by weighting their
connections with positive or negative interrelations. As
the most influencing drivers key factors leads to identify
the building blocks for scenarios and also the assumptions
that need to be take into account when writing the
scenarios [11]. Literature indicates that Delphi surveys are
one of the proven approaches that can be used for key
factor analysis. Out of the many ways in which Delphi
Define the objectives
of scenario planning
Environmental
scanning
Key factors Analysis
Prioritizing
the key
factors
Define the
Assumptions in
writing scenarios
Framework
scenarios
Elaborate
scenarios
01
02
03
04 06
05
07
alternative agro-based bio energy suggest that the scenario
will be developed towards an internally consistent story
about the path from the present to the future [8]. In
parallel to the above arguments International Energy
Agency define scenarios as a tool for helping us to take a
long view in a world of great uncertainty [9]. Similarly
scenarios are stories that anticipate the future. They are
narratives created by researchers, or by participants in a
workshop [5].
Different types of scenarios
In literature, scenario has been divided into two main
approaches. As per UNIDO technology, foresight manual
scenarios can be both exploratory and normative.
Exploratory scenarios start from the present and ask
questions such as “What next?” and “What if?”
Particularly interesting trends or uncertainties can be
selected (e.g. locating areas of high importance and high
uncertainty) for the development of explorative scenarios.
Normative, or inward scenarios, involve back casting,
typically starting with the most desirable future. The main
questions are “Where to?” and “How to?” [6].
While exploratory scenarios are designed to explore
several plausible future configurations of the world, IEA
suggest a forecasting type scenario which we are pretty
much familiar to us. This type of scenario is often referred
to as a "business-as-usual (BAU) scenario", which
assumes the continuation of historical trends into the
future and that the structure of the system remains
unchanged or responds in predetermined forms [9].
Number of scenarios
Single or multiple scenarios is a long debated topic
among the scholars who are engaged with the scenario
developments. Though the future is uncertain and
multidimensional, there are still instances in which single
scenarios can be useful in a vision oriented scenario.
Apart from a single mission driven approaches analysis of
just a single scenario does little to communicate much
about the range of opportunities and challenges. In
literature there are many studies involving multiple
scenarios. For example UK “environmental” foresight
study has elaborated four scenarios on the basis of two
dimensions, concerning social and political values and the
nature of governance [6]. On the other hand
understanding the uncertainly and multidimensional
nature of the future, in Norway 2030, five scenarios were
developed [10].
III. METHODOLOGY
Scenarios may be developed by an extremely wide-
ranging set of methods. They may emerge from
workshops or be prepared by small expert groups, derived
from Delphi or other survey results or constructed on the
basis of different worldviews (UNIDO, 2005:191).
Fig. 1. Scenario Development process
The proposed methodology applied in our study was
developed referring key literature on the scenario
planning. The Fig. 01 illustrates the scenario development
approach used in our study.
Step 01: Define the objectives of scenario planning
Setting up the preliminary objective for the scenario
planning exercise including a time horizon is the initial
step proposed by the stated model. As the first step of the
foresight process, having defined the objective enables the
scenario development team to module each and every step
of the scenario development process to attain the said
target.
Step 02: Environmental scanning
In the scenario process, the environment scanning is
used to identify all aspects relevant to the observed
system in a comprehensive manner. The literature revels
that most scenario developers uses a systematic and
holistic approach to identify influencing factors, so called
STEEPV [7]. The corporate strategy building exercise
carried out by Hirsch, Burggraf and Daheim in 2013 have
used a similar STEEP exercise to identify all aspects
relevant to the environment in which policies are and need
to be formed [11].
Step 03: Key factors analysis
In the next step, the set of influencing factors
produced by the environmental scanning needs to be
reduced to manageable set of key factors. In a scenario
process this reduction is achieved by impact analysis,
which inter relates individual factors by weighting their
connections with positive or negative interrelations. As
the most influencing drivers key factors leads to identify
the building blocks for scenarios and also the assumptions
that need to be take into account when writing the
scenarios [11]. Literature indicates that Delphi surveys are
one of the proven approaches that can be used for key
factor analysis. Out of the many ways in which Delphi
Define the objectives
of scenario planning
Environmental
scanning
Key factors Analysis
Prioritizing
the key
factors
Define the
Assumptions in
writing scenarios
Framework
scenarios
Elaborate
scenarios
01
02
03
04 06
05
07
could be used to develop scenarios, quantitative content
analysis was commonly used approach [8].
Step 04: Prioritizing the key factors
The IEA continues to consider ranking of these
factors by identify the two or three factors or trends that
are most important and most uncertain. These will
represent the main axes along which scenarios will differ
and will be characterized. Predetermined elements/factors
will remain unchanged in all scenarios [9]. This
considered to be one of the key step in the scenario
building process and the prioritization of key factors can
be conducted using a survey or by way of a expert
workshop [6].
Step 05: Define the assumptions in writing scenarios
The scenarios are the future pictures of highly
important and highly uncertain factors that we derived in
the previous step of this model. Thus when elaborating
and defining the scenarios we should clearly define the
assumptions that were underline the scenario
development. As illustrated by the Fig. 01, the
assumptions were derived systematically from the key
factors analysis step. These assumptions were considered
as given factors throughout the four scenarios that we
developed in the proceeding steps.
Step 06: Framework Scenarios
The four scenarios are constructed based on two
identified uncertainties and prioritized factors from the
previous stage [7]. This will be the pillars of scenarios as
this will creates the foundation to develop and elaborate
the scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy future.
Step 07: Elaborating scenarios
The framework developed in the previous step is
rather skeletal and, in order to be called scenarios, they
are complemented with the qualitative arguments
presented by the experts. The qualitative content analysis
of the arguments gives this option by revealing the
rationale and context around the quantitative statements.
The contexts can be interpreted and written down as a
more narrative ‘story’ of the future. The narrative
interpretations were written as four scenarios of the future
of renewable energy in Sri Lanka up to 2030 [8].
IV. RESULTS
The objective of the scenario planning is to ‘Develop
scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy future by year
2030’. In the second step, STEEPV is an acronym for
Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental,
Political, and Values. When selecting the experts, their
experience, knowledge, and involvement with respective
areas were considered. Methods such as stakeholder
analysis, co-nomination surveys, and brainstorming were
used for the identification of experts. Twelve experts, who
has a high calibre in the respective thematic areas
participated with the workshop. The outcome of STEEPV
was further confined to eight most important factors by
way of literature review and experts interviews. Thus the
outcome of the 3rd step or the key factors which are
important when developing the renewable energy sector
of Sri Lanka are as follow:
01. Public concern on environmental impact;
02. Energy intensive lifestyle of the public;
03. Government supportive policies;
04. Private and public sector participation;
05. High cost of fossil based thermal energy;
06. International pressure on emission of GHGs;
07. Technical limitations in the grid;
08. Global technological advancements.
A two round Delphi survey was conducted with a panel of
experts and the results were analyzed using a combined
Delphi, AHP model called Delphic Hierarchy process or
DHP. The literature reveals that the ideal number of
experts representing the Delphi panel should be in
between seven and twelve [6]. Concerning the availability
and expertise, our study incorporated 10 experts
representing Sustainable energy Authority, Ceylon
Electricity Board, Public Utility Commission, Institute of
policy studies, Central Bank, and academics in the
domain of Engineering, Environment, and Sociology of
Sri Lanka. Above eight key factors were taken into the
Delphi survey and outcomes were analyzed based on the
level of importance and the expected probability of
occurrence of each of the factors. Thus the outcome of
04th and 05th steps was as below:
Step 04: Prioritizing the key factors
Government policies with respect to energy
Real cost of the fossil fuels
Step 05: Define the Assumptions in writing scenarios
Global technological advances are conducive to
renewable energy
Energy intensive lifestyle of the public will
continue to grow
As stated in Fig. 01, the outcome of the 04th step was
taken to framework the scenarios of Sri Lanka’s
renewable energy future by year 2030 (i.e. step 06).
Fig.2 Scenario sketch
Government policies with respect to energy
Real cost of the fossil fuels
analysis was commonly used approach [8].
Step 04: Prioritizing the key factors
The IEA continues to consider ranking of these
factors by identify the two or three factors or trends that
are most important and most uncertain. These will
represent the main axes along which scenarios will differ
and will be characterized. Predetermined elements/factors
will remain unchanged in all scenarios [9]. This
considered to be one of the key step in the scenario
building process and the prioritization of key factors can
be conducted using a survey or by way of a expert
workshop [6].
Step 05: Define the assumptions in writing scenarios
The scenarios are the future pictures of highly
important and highly uncertain factors that we derived in
the previous step of this model. Thus when elaborating
and defining the scenarios we should clearly define the
assumptions that were underline the scenario
development. As illustrated by the Fig. 01, the
assumptions were derived systematically from the key
factors analysis step. These assumptions were considered
as given factors throughout the four scenarios that we
developed in the proceeding steps.
Step 06: Framework Scenarios
The four scenarios are constructed based on two
identified uncertainties and prioritized factors from the
previous stage [7]. This will be the pillars of scenarios as
this will creates the foundation to develop and elaborate
the scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy future.
Step 07: Elaborating scenarios
The framework developed in the previous step is
rather skeletal and, in order to be called scenarios, they
are complemented with the qualitative arguments
presented by the experts. The qualitative content analysis
of the arguments gives this option by revealing the
rationale and context around the quantitative statements.
The contexts can be interpreted and written down as a
more narrative ‘story’ of the future. The narrative
interpretations were written as four scenarios of the future
of renewable energy in Sri Lanka up to 2030 [8].
IV. RESULTS
The objective of the scenario planning is to ‘Develop
scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy future by year
2030’. In the second step, STEEPV is an acronym for
Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental,
Political, and Values. When selecting the experts, their
experience, knowledge, and involvement with respective
areas were considered. Methods such as stakeholder
analysis, co-nomination surveys, and brainstorming were
used for the identification of experts. Twelve experts, who
has a high calibre in the respective thematic areas
participated with the workshop. The outcome of STEEPV
was further confined to eight most important factors by
way of literature review and experts interviews. Thus the
outcome of the 3rd step or the key factors which are
important when developing the renewable energy sector
of Sri Lanka are as follow:
01. Public concern on environmental impact;
02. Energy intensive lifestyle of the public;
03. Government supportive policies;
04. Private and public sector participation;
05. High cost of fossil based thermal energy;
06. International pressure on emission of GHGs;
07. Technical limitations in the grid;
08. Global technological advancements.
A two round Delphi survey was conducted with a panel of
experts and the results were analyzed using a combined
Delphi, AHP model called Delphic Hierarchy process or
DHP. The literature reveals that the ideal number of
experts representing the Delphi panel should be in
between seven and twelve [6]. Concerning the availability
and expertise, our study incorporated 10 experts
representing Sustainable energy Authority, Ceylon
Electricity Board, Public Utility Commission, Institute of
policy studies, Central Bank, and academics in the
domain of Engineering, Environment, and Sociology of
Sri Lanka. Above eight key factors were taken into the
Delphi survey and outcomes were analyzed based on the
level of importance and the expected probability of
occurrence of each of the factors. Thus the outcome of
04th and 05th steps was as below:
Step 04: Prioritizing the key factors
Government policies with respect to energy
Real cost of the fossil fuels
Step 05: Define the Assumptions in writing scenarios
Global technological advances are conducive to
renewable energy
Energy intensive lifestyle of the public will
continue to grow
As stated in Fig. 01, the outcome of the 04th step was
taken to framework the scenarios of Sri Lanka’s
renewable energy future by year 2030 (i.e. step 06).
Fig.2 Scenario sketch
Government policies with respect to energy
Real cost of the fossil fuels
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Step 06: Frame working scenarios
We used the following three sub steps in order to
framework the scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy
sector by year 2030.
a. Identify & define the axis and sketch the scenario;
b. Identify & define the extremes of the key factors;
c. Develop the scenario grid based on the key
uncertainties.
While Fig. 02 sketch the scenario grid, based on the two
key variables, TABLE I Identify & define the extremes of
the stated key factors. As mentioned in the third step of
the scenario development process, these key variables and
extremes were used to develop the scenario grid as
illustrated in Fig. 03.
Fig.3 Scenario grid based on key variables and extremes
Fig.4 Scenario elaboration
The outcome of step 06, the scenario frame work and the
outcome of step 05, the two assumptions derived from the
DHP (Global technological advances are conducive to
renewable energy/ Energy intensive lifestyle of the public
will continue to grow) was taken to develop scenarios of
Sri Lankan renewable energy future by year 2030. This
will lead us to the final step (step 07) of scenario
development process.
Step 07: Elaborate scenarios
The elaboration of scenarios was also conducted in
three stages. Fig. 04 illustrates the three step approach
used in our study. The four scenarios were named as
‘Land of Republic’, ‘Green Paradise’, ‘Drowning Island’,
and ‘Black Island’. Fig. 05 illustrates the outcomes of step
A and Step B. The exploration of scenarios was discussed
in the discussion section of this paper.
V. DISCUSSION
The scenario ‘Land of Republic’ will be mould by the
falling prices of fossil fuels and the Sri Lankan
government favourable policies towards the country’s
renewable energy sector. As the real cost of fossil fuels
barely increases, investments in renewable energy power
projects will not be that attractive in economic terms.
However, with government consistent support and global
technological advancements which are conducive to the
development of renewable energy sector in general will
help Sri Lanka to meet 20% of electricity supply from
Non Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) sources by
2020.
Fig.5 Scenario Definitions
TABLE I
THE DEFINITIONS OF THE AXIS AND EXTREMES OF KEY VARIABLES
Axis Extremes
Government policies
with respect to energy:
Government formulates
policies on renewable
and non-renewable
energies
(a) Government moving towards
rational policies to promote renewable
energy:
Government will be formulating
objective policies towards the right
balance between renewable and non-
renewable energy.
(b) Government take policy decisions
to promote fossil based energy sources
ignoring renewable energy options:
Government will be formulating policies
favoring the fossil based energy options
ignoring the renewable based power
generation options.
Real cost of the fossil
fuels:
The cost of the fossil
fuels excluding
government subsidies
and taxes.
(a) Real cost of the fossil fuels going
up:
Real cost (without including government
subsidies and taxes) of fossil fuels going
up and making investments in renewable
becoming more attractive in economic
terms.
(b) Real cost of the fossil fuels barely
increase:
Real cost (without including government
subsidies and taxes) of fossil fuels barely
increases. Thus investments in renewable
will not be that attractive in economic
terms.
Government moving towards rational
policies to promote renewable energy
Government take policy decision to promote fossil based
energy sources ignoring renewable energy options
Real cost of the fossil
fuels barely increases
Real cost of the fossil
fuels going up
World 01 World 02
World 03 World 04
Name the
scenarios
Step A:
Define the
scenarios
Step B:
Explore
scenarios
Step C:
Government moving towards rational
policies to promote renewable energy
Government take policy decision to promote fossil based
energy sources ignoring renewable energy options
Real cost of the fossil
fuels barely increases
Real cost of the fossil
fuels going up
Drowning Island:
Government take policy
decision to promote fossil
based energy sources
ignoring renewable energy
options. Low cost of fossil
fuels further encourages
government decision.
Black Island:
Irrespective of rising
(Real) cost of fossil fuels,
Government take policy
decision to promote fossil
based energy sources
ignoring renewable energy
options. .
Land of Republic:
Irrespective of slowly
rising (Real) cost of the
fossil fuels, Government
moving towards rational
policies to promote
renewable energy.
Green Paradise:
When (Real) cost of the
fossil fuels going up,
Government moving
towards rational policies
to promote renewable
energy.
We used the following three sub steps in order to
framework the scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy
sector by year 2030.
a. Identify & define the axis and sketch the scenario;
b. Identify & define the extremes of the key factors;
c. Develop the scenario grid based on the key
uncertainties.
While Fig. 02 sketch the scenario grid, based on the two
key variables, TABLE I Identify & define the extremes of
the stated key factors. As mentioned in the third step of
the scenario development process, these key variables and
extremes were used to develop the scenario grid as
illustrated in Fig. 03.
Fig.3 Scenario grid based on key variables and extremes
Fig.4 Scenario elaboration
The outcome of step 06, the scenario frame work and the
outcome of step 05, the two assumptions derived from the
DHP (Global technological advances are conducive to
renewable energy/ Energy intensive lifestyle of the public
will continue to grow) was taken to develop scenarios of
Sri Lankan renewable energy future by year 2030. This
will lead us to the final step (step 07) of scenario
development process.
Step 07: Elaborate scenarios
The elaboration of scenarios was also conducted in
three stages. Fig. 04 illustrates the three step approach
used in our study. The four scenarios were named as
‘Land of Republic’, ‘Green Paradise’, ‘Drowning Island’,
and ‘Black Island’. Fig. 05 illustrates the outcomes of step
A and Step B. The exploration of scenarios was discussed
in the discussion section of this paper.
V. DISCUSSION
The scenario ‘Land of Republic’ will be mould by the
falling prices of fossil fuels and the Sri Lankan
government favourable policies towards the country’s
renewable energy sector. As the real cost of fossil fuels
barely increases, investments in renewable energy power
projects will not be that attractive in economic terms.
However, with government consistent support and global
technological advancements which are conducive to the
development of renewable energy sector in general will
help Sri Lanka to meet 20% of electricity supply from
Non Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) sources by
2020.
Fig.5 Scenario Definitions
TABLE I
THE DEFINITIONS OF THE AXIS AND EXTREMES OF KEY VARIABLES
Axis Extremes
Government policies
with respect to energy:
Government formulates
policies on renewable
and non-renewable
energies
(a) Government moving towards
rational policies to promote renewable
energy:
Government will be formulating
objective policies towards the right
balance between renewable and non-
renewable energy.
(b) Government take policy decisions
to promote fossil based energy sources
ignoring renewable energy options:
Government will be formulating policies
favoring the fossil based energy options
ignoring the renewable based power
generation options.
Real cost of the fossil
fuels:
The cost of the fossil
fuels excluding
government subsidies
and taxes.
(a) Real cost of the fossil fuels going
up:
Real cost (without including government
subsidies and taxes) of fossil fuels going
up and making investments in renewable
becoming more attractive in economic
terms.
(b) Real cost of the fossil fuels barely
increase:
Real cost (without including government
subsidies and taxes) of fossil fuels barely
increases. Thus investments in renewable
will not be that attractive in economic
terms.
Government moving towards rational
policies to promote renewable energy
Government take policy decision to promote fossil based
energy sources ignoring renewable energy options
Real cost of the fossil
fuels barely increases
Real cost of the fossil
fuels going up
World 01 World 02
World 03 World 04
Name the
scenarios
Step A:
Define the
scenarios
Step B:
Explore
scenarios
Step C:
Government moving towards rational
policies to promote renewable energy
Government take policy decision to promote fossil based
energy sources ignoring renewable energy options
Real cost of the fossil
fuels barely increases
Real cost of the fossil
fuels going up
Drowning Island:
Government take policy
decision to promote fossil
based energy sources
ignoring renewable energy
options. Low cost of fossil
fuels further encourages
government decision.
Black Island:
Irrespective of rising
(Real) cost of fossil fuels,
Government take policy
decision to promote fossil
based energy sources
ignoring renewable energy
options. .
Land of Republic:
Irrespective of slowly
rising (Real) cost of the
fossil fuels, Government
moving towards rational
policies to promote
renewable energy.
Green Paradise:
When (Real) cost of the
fossil fuels going up,
Government moving
towards rational policies
to promote renewable
energy.
Concerning the falling prices of fossil fuels, even by 2030
Sri Lanka’s NCRE share will remain at 20%. Early
warning signals such as; falling government balance of
payment due to the lesser foreign exchange requirement
in importing fossil fuels and extending payback periods of
local renewable energy power projects (as savings on
fossil fuel is less) could be seen if the country reaching
the scenario ‘Land of Republic’.
Out of the four scenarios presented in this paper,
‘Green Paradise’ is the most favourable scenario for Sri
Lanka’s renewable energy future. Rising cost of fossil
fuels along with Sri Lankan government rational policies
to promote renewable energy sector of Sri Lanka will
encourage the government and private sector to invest in
renewable energy power projects of the country. As a
result, Sri Lanka will easily meet country’s target of
generating 20% of electricity supply from NCRE sources
by 2020. By 2030, 25% to 30% of the country’s
electricity mix will be catered via NCRE sources. Early
warning signals such as falling balance of payment (due
to lesser foreign exchange requirement to import fossil
fuels) and the short payback period of the renewable
energy power projects (due to lower investment capital
required) will signal the upcoming ‘Green Paradise’ for
the country.
The Drowning Island is characterised by the
contradictory policies of Sri Lankan government with
respect to the renewable energy sector of the country.
While the world renewable energy wave’s uprights due to
the rising cost of fossil fuels, Sri Lankan government will
use its policies to swim against upcoming renewable
energy waves. In other words Sri Lankan government will
formulae policies favouring the fossil based energy
options ignoring the renewable based power generation
options. Due to the lack of policy support only 12% to
13% of electricity will generate from NCRE sources by
2020. Concerning the rising demand, the share of NCRE
will further reduce to 10% to 11% by year 2030. As the
government encourages investments in fossil based power
plants while the cost of fossil sources is advancing, this
scenario will show the highest ‘Balance of Payment’ of all
the scenarios discussed.
Lastly the scenario “Black Island” visualizes the most
unfavourable scenario of Sri Lanka by year 2030. Taking
advantage of falling fossil fuel prices, Sri Lankan
government will formulate policies favouring the fossil
based energy options ignoring the renewable based power
generation options. However people’s energy intensive
lifestyle will continue to grow. The rising demand fuelled
by the unfavourable government policies will lead the
country to generate less than 10% share from NCRE
sources by year 2020. By 2030 the share of NCRE will
further reduce to 6% to 7% of total generation. Balance of
payment will be widening as the government spending on
fossil sources is very much high over the price advantage
in fossil fuels. Renewable energy power projects will be
further discouraged due to the higher payback period (as
savings on fossil fuel is less).
Scenarios provide unique insights, harnessing
knowledge, skills, and distinctive competencies to drive
institutions and organisations forward. Scenarios impact
on human thinking, facilitating an ongoing adaptive
learning process in organisations. They promote
recognition, understanding, and early reaction to the
initial jolt of environmental change. However the four
scenarios that we presented do not necessary say that the
future will be exactly as same as what we see in the stated
scenarios. Rather, the future could be a combination of
identified scenarios. The purpose of developing scenarios
is to identify the variables that would govern the
renewable energy sector of Sri Lanka by 2030.
REFERENCES
[1] REN21 (2014), Renewables 2014 global status report, Paris:
Renewable Energy Policy Network for 21st Century,
REN21 Secretariat.
[2] Kaivo-oja, J. and Rikkonen, P. (2005) ‘Key issues for
successful scenario planning: perspectives on sustainable
use of natural resources in agricultural sector’, Sustainable
use of renewable natural resources, vol. 34.
[3] IPCC (2000) ‘Special report on emission scenarios’,
Intergovernmental panel of climate change, Cambridge
University press, Cambridge.
[4] Shell (2005), “Executive summary of the Shell Global
Scenarios to 2025” available at: http://www.shell.com/
content/dam/shell/static/future-energy/downloads/shell-
scenarios/shell-global-scenarios2025summary2005.pdf.
[5] Ozcan, S and Jonathan, A. (2010) ‘Using scenarios for road
mapping: the case of clean production’, Technological
forecasting and social change, Vol. 77, no 7, pp. 1061 –
1075.
[6] UNIDO, (2005) ‘Technology Foresight Manual –
Volume 01’, [e-book], Available:
https://www.unido.org/foresight/registration/dokums_
raw/volume1_unido_tf_manual.pdf [30 May 2013].
[7] Ricard, L. and Borch, K. (2012) ‘From Future
Scenarios to Roadmapping: A practical guide to
explore innovation and strategy’, The 4th
International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented
Technology Analysis (FTA), May 12-13, 2011.
[8] Rikkonen, P. and Tapio, P. (2009) ‘Future prospects of
alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—
constructing scenarios with quantitative and
qualitative Delphi data’, Technological Forecasting
and Social Change, vol.76, no.7, pp.978-990.
[9] International Energy Agency(IEA) and Organization
For Economic Co-Operation And
Development(OECD), (2003) Energy to 2050:
Scenarios for sustainable future, France.
[10] Overland, E. (2003) ‘The Importance of Developing
Long-Term Visions for Countries. The Norway2030-
Vision: Lessons for Turkey’, Istanbul Forum.
[11] Hirsch, S., Burggraf, P., and Daheim, C. (2013)
‘Scenario planning with integrated quantification–
managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building’,
foresight, Vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 363 - 374.
View publication statsView publication stats
Sri Lanka’s NCRE share will remain at 20%. Early
warning signals such as; falling government balance of
payment due to the lesser foreign exchange requirement
in importing fossil fuels and extending payback periods of
local renewable energy power projects (as savings on
fossil fuel is less) could be seen if the country reaching
the scenario ‘Land of Republic’.
Out of the four scenarios presented in this paper,
‘Green Paradise’ is the most favourable scenario for Sri
Lanka’s renewable energy future. Rising cost of fossil
fuels along with Sri Lankan government rational policies
to promote renewable energy sector of Sri Lanka will
encourage the government and private sector to invest in
renewable energy power projects of the country. As a
result, Sri Lanka will easily meet country’s target of
generating 20% of electricity supply from NCRE sources
by 2020. By 2030, 25% to 30% of the country’s
electricity mix will be catered via NCRE sources. Early
warning signals such as falling balance of payment (due
to lesser foreign exchange requirement to import fossil
fuels) and the short payback period of the renewable
energy power projects (due to lower investment capital
required) will signal the upcoming ‘Green Paradise’ for
the country.
The Drowning Island is characterised by the
contradictory policies of Sri Lankan government with
respect to the renewable energy sector of the country.
While the world renewable energy wave’s uprights due to
the rising cost of fossil fuels, Sri Lankan government will
use its policies to swim against upcoming renewable
energy waves. In other words Sri Lankan government will
formulae policies favouring the fossil based energy
options ignoring the renewable based power generation
options. Due to the lack of policy support only 12% to
13% of electricity will generate from NCRE sources by
2020. Concerning the rising demand, the share of NCRE
will further reduce to 10% to 11% by year 2030. As the
government encourages investments in fossil based power
plants while the cost of fossil sources is advancing, this
scenario will show the highest ‘Balance of Payment’ of all
the scenarios discussed.
Lastly the scenario “Black Island” visualizes the most
unfavourable scenario of Sri Lanka by year 2030. Taking
advantage of falling fossil fuel prices, Sri Lankan
government will formulate policies favouring the fossil
based energy options ignoring the renewable based power
generation options. However people’s energy intensive
lifestyle will continue to grow. The rising demand fuelled
by the unfavourable government policies will lead the
country to generate less than 10% share from NCRE
sources by year 2020. By 2030 the share of NCRE will
further reduce to 6% to 7% of total generation. Balance of
payment will be widening as the government spending on
fossil sources is very much high over the price advantage
in fossil fuels. Renewable energy power projects will be
further discouraged due to the higher payback period (as
savings on fossil fuel is less).
Scenarios provide unique insights, harnessing
knowledge, skills, and distinctive competencies to drive
institutions and organisations forward. Scenarios impact
on human thinking, facilitating an ongoing adaptive
learning process in organisations. They promote
recognition, understanding, and early reaction to the
initial jolt of environmental change. However the four
scenarios that we presented do not necessary say that the
future will be exactly as same as what we see in the stated
scenarios. Rather, the future could be a combination of
identified scenarios. The purpose of developing scenarios
is to identify the variables that would govern the
renewable energy sector of Sri Lanka by 2030.
REFERENCES
[1] REN21 (2014), Renewables 2014 global status report, Paris:
Renewable Energy Policy Network for 21st Century,
REN21 Secretariat.
[2] Kaivo-oja, J. and Rikkonen, P. (2005) ‘Key issues for
successful scenario planning: perspectives on sustainable
use of natural resources in agricultural sector’, Sustainable
use of renewable natural resources, vol. 34.
[3] IPCC (2000) ‘Special report on emission scenarios’,
Intergovernmental panel of climate change, Cambridge
University press, Cambridge.
[4] Shell (2005), “Executive summary of the Shell Global
Scenarios to 2025” available at: http://www.shell.com/
content/dam/shell/static/future-energy/downloads/shell-
scenarios/shell-global-scenarios2025summary2005.pdf.
[5] Ozcan, S and Jonathan, A. (2010) ‘Using scenarios for road
mapping: the case of clean production’, Technological
forecasting and social change, Vol. 77, no 7, pp. 1061 –
1075.
[6] UNIDO, (2005) ‘Technology Foresight Manual –
Volume 01’, [e-book], Available:
https://www.unido.org/foresight/registration/dokums_
raw/volume1_unido_tf_manual.pdf [30 May 2013].
[7] Ricard, L. and Borch, K. (2012) ‘From Future
Scenarios to Roadmapping: A practical guide to
explore innovation and strategy’, The 4th
International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented
Technology Analysis (FTA), May 12-13, 2011.
[8] Rikkonen, P. and Tapio, P. (2009) ‘Future prospects of
alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—
constructing scenarios with quantitative and
qualitative Delphi data’, Technological Forecasting
and Social Change, vol.76, no.7, pp.978-990.
[9] International Energy Agency(IEA) and Organization
For Economic Co-Operation And
Development(OECD), (2003) Energy to 2050:
Scenarios for sustainable future, France.
[10] Overland, E. (2003) ‘The Importance of Developing
Long-Term Visions for Countries. The Norway2030-
Vision: Lessons for Turkey’, Istanbul Forum.
[11] Hirsch, S., Burggraf, P., and Daheim, C. (2013)
‘Scenario planning with integrated quantification–
managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building’,
foresight, Vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 363 - 374.
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