Energy for 2030 Scenarios for a Sustainable Future: A Case of Sri Lanka

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Energy for 2030 scenarios for a sustainable future: A case of Sri Lanka
Conference Paper · December 2015
DOI: 10.1109/IEEM.2015.7385693
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Abstract - Literature states that most successful
corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to
lead the energy sector. Accordingly, the objective of this
paper is to develop scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to
picture the Sri Lankan renewable energy sector by year
2030. This study presents a seven step scenario development
model to develop scenarios. The seven steps comprises
defining objective of scenario planning, environmental
scanning, key factor analysis, prioritizing the key factors,
define the assumptions in writing scenarios, framework
scenarios, and finally elaborate scenarios. Following the
stated seven steps four scenarios named ‘Land of Republic,’
‘Green Paradise,’ ‘Drowning Island’ and Black Island’ were
developed. The scenarios were developed base on two key
variables. The path to the scenario, the outcome of the
scenario and finally the early warning signals were
presented when describing the scenarios.
Keywords – Foresight Analysis, Renewable energy,
Scenario planning, Sri Lanka .
I. INTRODUCTION
About a decade ago most of the OECD countries
dominated the renewable power industry with higher
contribution of hydro, solar and wind power capacities.
But today many international publicans evidence the
Chinese, Indians and may other developing nation’s
mounting role in the renewable energy power sector. For
example by the end of 2013, India was the fourth largest
market in terms of total wind power installation with a
total capacity of 20.2GW. Similarly in the same year
China alone accounted for almost one-third of global
installations, adding a record 12.9 GW to nearly triple its
capacity to approximately 20 GW [1].Thus countries like
China and India teach us a valuable lessons as they have
managed to bypass most of the mistake made by
European countries and have managed to reach the
current level of developments in just a couple of years’
time. Literature reveals that a clear vision on the future
aided these nations to reach the current status of
developments.
However, today the world is characterised by a high
degree of uncertainty and complexity. The main idea of
scenario planning is to link cause and effect to seemingly
unrelated factors, where the nature of possible futures can
dramatically affect success of actions and decision-
making [2]. In literature we could find much evidence
where scenario planning was used for future development
routes. More specifically, several earlier scenario studies
have investigated the future development of energy and
environment issues on global scale. For instance, the
International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has created
scenarios focusing on the future development of energy
and environment on the future developments of
greenhouse gas emissions [3]. In addition, Brown et al.
(2001) have studied scenarios focusing on clean energy
future. Their study concentrated on how the clean energy
technologies will be suitable to address the challenges of
the energy and the environment sectors. Also Shell has
utilized scenarios to identify opportunities and challenges
in the global business environment [4].
The above examples states that most successful
corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to
lead the energy sector, as only when people can visualize
a future, they can begin to create it. Sri Lanka renewable
energy sector in many ways face challenges to crop up
with technological constrains, supply chain constrains
(especially in the biomass sector), higher cost of
generation and many other social, technological,
economic, environmental and political constrains. Ozcan
and Jonathan (2010) state that scenarios are particularly
useful when many factors need to be considered, and the
degree of uncertainty about the future is high [5].
Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to develop
scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to picture the Sri
Lankan renewable energy sector by year 2030.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Like many other early forecasting techniques, the
scenario method is a post-war planning concept.
Following the work of Herman Kahn and others at RAND
and the Hudson Institute in the 1960s, scenarios reached a
new dimension with the work of Pierre Wack in Royal
Dutch/Shell [5]. From there on throughout history,
scenarios have been used by many industries and nations
to shape their future for the betterment of all the
stakeholders. Consequently many scholars have attempted
to define and develop much scholarly literature on this
method.
Definitions of scenarios
UNIDO Technology foresight manual suggest that
the scenarios are used in the sense of visions of future
possibilities and particularly, visions [6]. Similarly Ricard
and Borch (in 2012) suggested that scenario-making is
one way of producing future images on what could
happen in the future, in order to make better decisions in
ENERGY FOR 2030 SCENARIOS FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: A CASE
OF SRI LANKA
A. S. Withanaarachchi, L. D. J. F. Nanayakkara, C. Pushpakumara
Department of Industrial Management, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka
([e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail])

the present [7]. Finland did a study on future prospects of
alternative agro-based bio energy suggest that the scenario
will be developed towards an internally consistent story
about the path from the present to the future [8]. In
parallel to the above arguments International Energy
Agency define scenarios as a tool for helping us to take a
long view in a world of great uncertainty [9]. Similarly
scenarios are stories that anticipate the future. They are
narratives created by researchers, or by participants in a
workshop [5].
Different types of scenarios
In literature, scenario has been divided into two main
approaches. As per UNIDO technology, foresight manual
scenarios can be both exploratory and normative.
Exploratory scenarios start from the present and ask
questions such as “What next?” and “What if?”
Particularly interesting trends or uncertainties can be
selected (e.g. locating areas of high importance and high
uncertainty) for the development of explorative scenarios.
Normative, or inward scenarios, involve back casting,
typically starting with the most desirable future. The main
questions are “Where to?” and “How to?” [6].
While exploratory scenarios are designed to explore
several plausible future configurations of the world, IEA
suggest a forecasting type scenario which we are pretty
much familiar to us. This type of scenario is often referred
to as a "business-as-usual (BAU) scenario", which
assumes the continuation of historical trends into the
future and that the structure of the system remains
unchanged or responds in predetermined forms [9].
Number of scenarios
Single or multiple scenarios is a long debated topic
among the scholars who are engaged with the scenario
developments. Though the future is uncertain and
multidimensional, there are still instances in which single
scenarios can be useful in a vision oriented scenario.
Apart from a single mission driven approaches analysis of
just a single scenario does little to communicate much
about the range of opportunities and challenges. In
literature there are many studies involving multiple
scenarios. For example UK “environmental” foresight
study has elaborated four scenarios on the basis of two
dimensions, concerning social and political values and the
nature of governance [6]. On the other hand
understanding the uncertainly and multidimensional
nature of the future, in Norway 2030, five scenarios were
developed [10].
III. METHODOLOGY
Scenarios may be developed by an extremely wide-
ranging set of methods. They may emerge from
workshops or be prepared by small expert groups, derived
from Delphi or other survey results or constructed on the
basis of different worldviews (UNIDO, 2005:191).
Fig. 1. Scenario Development process
The proposed methodology applied in our study was
developed referring key literature on the scenario
planning. The Fig. 01 illustrates the scenario development
approach used in our study.
Step 01: Define the objectives of scenario planning
Setting up the preliminary objective for the scenario
planning exercise including a time horizon is the initial
step proposed by the stated model. As the first step of the
foresight process, having defined the objective enables the
scenario development team to module each and every step
of the scenario development process to attain the said
target.
Step 02: Environmental scanning
In the scenario process, the environment scanning is
used to identify all aspects relevant to the observed
system in a comprehensive manner. The literature revels
that most scenario developers uses a systematic and
holistic approach to identify influencing factors, so called
STEEPV [7]. The corporate strategy building exercise
carried out by Hirsch, Burggraf and Daheim in 2013 have
used a similar STEEP exercise to identify all aspects
relevant to the environment in which policies are and need
to be formed [11].
Step 03: Key factors analysis
In the next step, the set of influencing factors
produced by the environmental scanning needs to be
reduced to manageable set of key factors. In a scenario
process this reduction is achieved by impact analysis,
which inter relates individual factors by weighting their
connections with positive or negative interrelations. As
the most influencing drivers key factors leads to identify
the building blocks for scenarios and also the assumptions
that need to be take into account when writing the
scenarios [11]. Literature indicates that Delphi surveys are
one of the proven approaches that can be used for key
factor analysis. Out of the many ways in which Delphi
Define the objectives
of scenario planning
Environmental
scanning
Key factors Analysis
Prioritizing
the key
factors
Define the
Assumptions in
writing scenarios
Framework
scenarios
Elaborate
scenarios
01
02
03
04 06
05
07