Energy in 2050: Trends, Projections, and Game Changers

Running head: Energy in 2050
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Energy in 2050 2
ENERGY IN 2050
INTRODUCTION: 5%
Energy is simply defined as the ability to carry out work (Shove, 2014). Energy is almost
indispensable in the modern-day world as it is a critical determinant of the economy of any
nation. Energy forms such as electricity are transformed and used to warm us during winters.
Energy is also used in mobile phone and television technologies, in hospitals, at homes and
schools for lighting among many other applications (Goldemberg, 1987).
Currently, the main sources of energy are Coal and natural gas with a combined
percentage contribution of about 62.2 %. Renewable sources such as hydroelectricity contribute
only16.4 % while solar energy and wind energy have a cumulative share of about 6.3 %
(Roubanis, 2010).However, this situation is touted to change by 2050, with most of the energy
produced in the world expected to be from renewable sources such as wind and solar. With a lot
of research being carried out in this field, this is a real possibility and it is very much welcomed
and anticipated by environmentalists from all over the world.
The use of nonrenewable carbon-based sources over the years has led to global warming.
Global warming is caused by the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon (IV) oxide in the
atmosphere. Carbon (IV) is a product of combustion of all carbon-based fuels. Global warming is
a top threat to ecosystems around the world.
ENERGY SCENARIO IN 2018: 15%
Energy production has been significantly and steadily rising over the years. The year
2017 experienced a 2.8 % growth relative to the previous year 2016. This growth has been
accelerated in the past couple years since the 10-year global average growth is 1.7 %. A huge
chunk (94 %) of this growth is mainly from the developing countries (Meibon, 2000).
Renewable energy sources currently contribute to about half (49 %) of the energy
produced globally. Total renewable energy generated globally has also grown from 7.4 % to 8.4
% which is a very positive trend. Almost half (44 %) of the remaining energy generated
worldwide comes from coal. It’s also notable that energy generation from member states of the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has not changed since 2010
(Reddy, 1990).

Energy in 2050 3
In 2017, the world produced a total energy of 24, 345 TW/h or 13,511.2 million barrels of
oil when expressed as an equivalent of barrels of oil produced. By the International Energy
Agency estimates, the biggest energy sources by generation volumes have been and still is Coal
with a share of about 39.3 % followed by natural gas with a 22.9 % share. The third largest
source was hydroelectricity at 16.4 % which was followed by nuclear energy at 10.6 %. Other
sources such as solar energy, wind energy, and biomass-based sources cumulatively had a 6.3 %
share. Surprisingly, oil had a meager contribution of 4.1 % (Meibon, 2000).
Figure 1. Currennt World electricity production by source
Figure 2. 2016 energy production
The fuel source that has experienced the most growth in consumption is natural gas.
Renewable energy sources fall in the second position and then followed by oil. Global energy
consumption volumes in the previous year rose by 3.1 percent with China leading for the past 17

Energy in 2050 4
years. The bad news in current world trends is that carbon emission volumes rose by 1.6 %
(Reddy, 1990).
The two largest producers of energy in the world are The U.S.A and China with 21.6 %
and 16 % as a fraction of the global energy produced.
GAME CHANGERS IN ENERGY SCENARIO AND NEW ENERGY LANDSCAPE.
The Hubbert Linearization technique is the main analysis tool used to project global
energy trends in 2050 (Anderson, 2011). Energy demand worldwide is expected to double by
2050. Economic growths in China and India will be the main driving forces towards this
demographic. Global energy consumption is expected to peak I the year 2043 with a projected
oil equivalent of almost 16,333 million tonnes (Edmonds, 1983).
The largest renewable energy source will be Geothermal and wind. Non-renewable
energy production will also decrease gradually due to the aforementioned game changers. China,
India and the U.S.A will be the three largest producers of energy worldwide.
Figure 3. Global energy scenario at 2050