Sustainable Energy: A Comparison of Past and Current Energy Projections

The report provides a comparison between past and current energy projections, with a focus on the reasons for the differences between the two. The summary of the content includes graphs and tables that clearly show the market projection of the energy consumption by households, and the future supply of energy to the market following its demand and price charged per watt.

Sustainable Energy
Sustainable energy
By
Name
Course
Professor’s name
Institution
Location of institution
Date
1

Sustainable Energy
Executive summary
The report provided focuses on the analysis of the energy predictions made in the ancient days
on how energy market evolved from the past days to the present days. This will comprise the
comparison between past and current energy projections using graphs and tables to clearly show
the market projection of the energy consumption by the households.
The reason for the differences between the earlier energy projections and current projections is
provided into details by pointing out the possible reason for such differences in the market and
future supply of energy to the household up to 2050.
Contemporary data and graphical projection on the future supply of energy to the market
following its demand and price charged per watt is provided in the report.
2

Sustainable Energy
Introduction
The report is based on the comparison of the historic energy projections and current data on
energy consumption by the household. The comparison is made between the earlier energy
projection data in the current market and current data following the change in demand and
consumption of energy by the households. Energy prices per watt also can be considered as a
factor for the differences in the data compared. (Alper and Oguz, 2016, pg. 953-959)
Energy projection both in earlier and current data provided has portrayed a bigger difference
in consumption by the household and market supply thus depending on the price charged per
watt. The reason for the shift in energy consumption and the demand in the current market as
compared to the earlier market trend data includes the addition in net electricity generation,
rising global natural gas production and use, effects of recovery from the global economic
recession and higher coal consumption in the past days.
Comparison of the energy prediction on consumption is provided in the report and discussed
below giving relevant energy consumption graphs and tables based on the rise of consumption in
the world.
3

Sustainable Energy
Sustainable energy
Energy being the most valuable natural resource to the development and industrialization
process in the world, the WEC energy group has provided the data analysis based on the
comparison on the ancient energy demand-supply projection and current projection. The data
analysis used by the WEC energy group, comparison data and future evolution of the energy
products are discussed in the context.
4

Brazil
China
India
Japan
Russia
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sustainable Energy
Market prediction analysis
Graph1.
Energy consumption per capita million Btu per person 2015---------
2040 IEO2018 Reference case projection
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
GDP per capita
2010 U.S. dollars per person
According to graph 1 on the energy prediction on the consumption by the household
following market price and demand, thus from 2015 to 2040, it clearly shows that the
consumption is likely to increase gradually in most of the countries in the world. The current
energy consumption by the household from most of the sampled countries predicts a gradual
increase in energy consumption in the near future which may be as a result of rising global
natural gas production and use by most of the countries following technological advancement in
most of the countries. The trend in global fuel production and uses can also lead to such a
5

Sustainable Energy
gradual increase in consumption due to rapid global industrial revolution which needs a constant
power supply in running the machines involved in the production process. (Cheng, 2017).
Recovery from the global economic recession can be considered as a factor for the gradual
increase in the energy consumption graph thus according to table 1. Economically, recession
period can be defined as the period when there is a decline in the economic activities in the
country which may result from political instability and war where there are no any economic
activities going on in the country. For instance, the recession period was witnessed in the days of
world war. Recovery from such period will lead to more economic activities like
industrialization where there would be high consumption and demand of energy in most of the
manufacturing firms in order to compensate for the time and resource lost during the recession
period. (Cox, 2018).
Comparison between past and current energy projection
Comparison between ancient energy consumption projection and the current projection on the
market and household consumption of energy is made based on the ancient energy data and
current data on the future consumption of the energy by the household due to rapid
industrialization taking place in most of the developing countries like Africa.
6

17 22
43
85
114
173
0
100
200
Africa
IEO2018
Africa
Africa High
India Brazil China Japan
IEO2018 Reference case
Sustainable Energy
Graph 2.
In the IEO2018 Africa High Growth case, energy use per capita in the current energy projection
on consumption from 1875 up to 1975 rises 30% compared with the IEO2018 Reference case.
Energy consumption per
capita in millions Btu per
person
Reference Growth
7

Sustainable Energy
Table 1.
Price summary (historical and forecast)
2017 2018 2019 2020
WTI Crude Oila
dollars per barrel
50.79 65.06 54.79 58
Brent Crude Oil
dollars per barrel
54.15 71.19 61.03 62
Gasolineb
dollars per gallon
2.42 2.73 2.47 2.56
Dieselc
dollars per gallon
2.65 3.18 2.95 3.15
Heating Oild
dollars per gallon
2.51 3.02 2.86 2.99
Natural Gasd
dollars per thousand cubic feet
10.86 10.5 10.79 10.92
Electricityd
cents per kilowatt-hour
12.89 12.91 13.25 13.45
aWest Texas Intermediate.
average regular pump price.
Note: Italics indicate forecast.
cOn-highway retail.
dU.S. Residential average.
8

Sustainable Energy
Table 2: World energy supply 1950 – 2050 (data known until 1974). Source: Ion (1978).
Graph 3. Energy supply and demand projection
9

Sustainable Energy
According to graph 2, it predicts the demand of energy in developing countries like Africa
for a period ranging from 1875 to 1975 where the demand and consumption of energy
specifically in developing nations are expected to increase by 30%.
In graph 3, the supply and demand for energy globally increases gradually for a period
ranging from 1995 to 2050. It focuses on the current energy demand projection by the household
and manufacturing firms. There is a gradual increase in the demand of most of the energy
products in the current market following the analysis on graph 3.
Table 1 focuses on the price summary of the energy products from the year 2017 to 2020. It
can be clearly summarized that the price of the energy products in the table 1 increase per year
thus following market demand for such products as noted in graph 3. The projection on the price
of energy products by table 1 for three consecutive years shows a gradual increase in price thus
the future price of the energy products will be higher than the current price. (Dayarathna, Wen,
and Fan, 2016, pg 732-794).
Table 2 shows the energy products supply and demand by the household where the supply
and demand for energy is spotted to rise per year for a period that ranges between1995 to 2050.
The supply-demand data on the energy products across the world increases yearly in that the
supply for the energy products needs to be increased as more energy production or mining
should be increased by the oil producing countries so as to meet the market demand for the
energy products thus avoiding shortage in the near future. (Erturk, and Inman, 2011).
10

Sustainable Energy
Reasons for the differences
Addition in net electricity generation
Addition in net electricity generation by different states will increase the supply of energy
products in the market and to households. When there is a large production of energy within the
country, its supply will tend to increase rapidly since the country will have excess energy thus
electricity for its domestic consumption thus may resolve to sell its surplus electricity to the
neighboring countries who do not produce such energy so as to earn foreign currencies over such
trade thus will boost the economic status of that particular country. (Firoozabadi, 2016).
Addition in net generation of energy products like electricity will supplement local industries
involved in the production process with cheap power thus promotes local firms’ development
which in return will contribute to economic development through the employment of the
particular country’s citizens.
Effects of recovery from the global economic recession
Recession period can be defined as that particular period where there is a decline in the
economic activities in the country. Recession period may be as a result of political instability
where the country is at war and there is no trade going on in the country. World recession period
was witnessed back during the world wars where every nation was involved in a war. (Fumo, and
Biswas, 2015, pg 332-343).
Global recovery from recession period can be considered a reason for the differences in the
earlier energy projection and current projection since during the recovery period, countries will
strive to develop some of its dormant economic activities which were affected during the
11

Sustainable Energy
recession period. Industrialization is considered one the major recovery option every country will
start at since it's considered as a major driver for economic growth.
Consumption of energy by the manufacturing industries has led to the rapid increase and
demand of energy products just after the recession period as more factories came up to fill the
inadequacy of some basic products needed by the households and by that consumption and
demand for energy increase giving the difference between the two projections. (Giménez, and
Bisquert, 2016, pg 403-407).
Rising global natural gas production
Technological advancement in most of the country has led to an increasing rate of natural gas
production globally. Following the high cost importing natural gas from oil producing countries
which are considered high, there is a rising attempt of producing natural gas by different states in
order to forgo the cost of importing the energy products. Through these activities, there is a rapid
increase in production and supply of energy products into the market which results to differ in
two projections thus current and ancient projection on the demand and supply of energy
products. (Inglesi-Lotz, 2016, pg 58-63).
Rise in production also increase the energy consumption within a country since it is readily
and cheaply available to the local consumers as compared to earlier imported ones. Through
these, energy supply will reach up to the less fortunate households which could not afford to hire
the imported energy product which is relatively expensive compared to locally produced
products.
12

Sustainable Energy
The trend in global fuel production and use.
The current trend on fuel production and use globally has shifted from the ancient trend in
usage where a lot of energy was wasted since there was no proper way or solution in energy
preservation and conversation as related to current use of energy products. The current trend in
fuel production and conservation in use has led to change in the graphs since in ancient days, a
large amount of energy was produced and quite a huge percentage were lost while they were
used due to lack of a proper way to conserve extra energy produced for future use. (Pimentel,
2018).
With better and modernized technology on fuel conservation and use, less energy is wastage
unlike ancient days thus resulting in more energy production but less quantity is used up, thus
according to ancient projection.
Higher coal consumption
The reason for the difference in data projection on ancient and current energy use and demand
can be traced from the ancient days where there was a large consumption of coal energy which
was considered affordable and efficient in running heavy machines in the local mines. Due to the
exhaustion of coal and advancement in technology on mining machines, there is a shift to oil
products which are more efficient than coal. (Priya, and Inman, 2009, pg 2).
Change from the consumption of a large amount of coal energy to more refined oil product
has resulted to the difference in the data projection on energy demand and supply, since the
demand of coal energy is relatively low compared to the oil products in the current data
projection. (Revankar and Majumdar, 2014).
13

Sustainable Energy
Modern firms and factories prefer using refined oil products to run and operations of the
production machines which has led to less demand of coal as a source of energy as compared to
ancient industries thus leading to the difference in the demand and supply of energy products in
consideration of ancient and current projection on energy consumption. Van de Krol and Grätzel,
2012, vol. 90).
Evolution of energy supply up to 2050
The evolution of the energy supply in the near future thus up to 2050 in the current world
market according to the table 3 projects that there will be a gradual increase in the supply of
energy due to high of energy consumption by the households and upcoming industries due to
faster growth of local manufacturing factories which requires high amount of energy in running
the production machines involved in production process.
Energy supply projection graph up to 2050 shows that the demand of energy products by both
the households and local upcoming firms are due to the high rate of industrialization and also due
to recovery from global economic recession which was as a result of political instability in most
of the developing countries like Africa where there is frequent political war regularly after
presidential election. (Yan, X.L. and Hino, 2016).
There will be a rise in the global natural gas production and changes in the trend in gas
production by different states. The rise in production will be triggered by the high demand of
energy products thus each country will divert their resources in the production of the energy
products to support the country’s energy demand by the local firms and households. Cost of fuel
importation from other countries which is relatively expensive can be considered as a drive for
14

Sustainable Energy
the country to produce its energy product so as to forgo the importation cost. This act will reduce
the cost of energy in that particular country as locally produced energy will be cheaper than the
imported energy products. In addition, the locally produced energy will facilitate growth and
rapid development of local manufacturing factories since there is readily produced and cheap
source of energy.
Price summary (historical and forecast)
2010 2025 2035 2050
WTI Crude Oil
Dollars per barrel 50.79 65.06 54.79 58
Brent Crude Oil
Dollars per barrel 56.15 71.19 61.03 62
Gasoline
Dollars per gallon 2.42 2.73 2.47 3.56
Diesel
Dollars per gallon 2.65 3.18 2.95 3.15
Heating Oil
Dollars per gallon 2.51 3.02 2.86 2.99
Natural Gas
Dollars per thousand cubic feet 10.86 10.5 10.79 10.92
15

Sustainable Energy
Electricity 12.89 12.91 13.25 13.45
16

Sustainable Energy
Conclusion
To summarize, the energy demand and supply between the ancient data projection and the
current projection following the analysis conducted above is expected to increase gradually up to
the year 2050 which may be as a result of rapid industrialization and effects of recovery from the
global economic recession since every nation struggles to recover from the recession in order to
stabilize their economy.
17

Sustainable Energy
References
Alper, A. and Oguz, O., 2016. The role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth:
Evidence from asymmetric causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60,
pp.953-959.
Cheng, J. ed., 2017. Biomass to renewable energy processes. CRC press.
Cox, R.I., 2018. Hydrogen: Its Technology and Implication: Production Technology-Volume I.
CRC press.
Dayarathna, M., Wen, Y. and Fan, R., 2016. Data center energy consumption modeling: A
survey. IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials, 18(1), pp.732-794.
Erturk, A. and Inman, D.J., 2011. Piezoelectric energy harvesting. John Wiley & Sons.
Firoozabadi, A., 2016. Thermodynamics and applications in hydrocarbon energy production.
New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Fumo, N. and Biswas, M.R., 2015. Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy
consumption. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 47, pp.332-343.
Giménez, S. and Bisquert, J., 2016. Photoelectrochemical solar fuel production (pp. 403-407).
Switzerland: Springer.
Inglesi-Lotz, R., 2016. The impact of renewable energy consumption to economic growth: A
panel data application. Energy Economics, 53, pp.58-63.
18

Sustainable Energy
Pimentel, D., 2018. Handbook of Energy Utilization In Agriculture: 0. CRC press.
Priya, S. and Inman, D.J. eds., 2009. Energy harvesting technologies (Vol. 21, p. 2). New York:
Springer.
Revankar, S.T. and Majumdar, P., 2014. Fuel cells: principles, design, and analysis. CRC press.
Van de Krol, R. and Grätzel, M., 2012. Photoelectrochemical hydrogen production (Vol. 90).
New York: Springer.
Yan, X.L. and Hino, R. eds., 2016. Nuclear hydrogen production handbook. CRC Press.
19