Epidemiology of Infectious Disease

This paper discusses the use of Ebola virus as a bio-terrorism weapon in a crowded hospital. It includes the transmission, mortality rate, and impact on public health.

Running head: EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author Note

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EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
The pathogen chosen for bio-terrorism must pose risk to national security. The pathogen
must get transmitted easily from individual to individual and result in high mortality rates. The
pathogen must have a major impact on health of public (CDC, 2019). It might also cause social
disruptions and pubic panic and hence seeks special attention ad special action concerning public
health. The chosen pathogen in this paper is Ebola virus. Sierra Leone is the most severely
affected country of Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa during 2013−2015 that led to the death
of 11,316 people as of 20 January 2016 (Fang et al., 2016).
Ebola is an extremely severe and infectious virus and are transmitted to people from wild
animals (Judson, Prescott & Munster, 2015). Ebola must be obtained and grown in a massive
supply in a costly endeavor to affect a huge mass of population. The virus is easily spread
through personal contact of body fluids of an infected person, therefore, it will be difficult to
control and manipulate the virus, once spread. (Judson, Prescott & Munster, 2015). Ebola virus
does not have any cure. The supportive care in the hospital can only increase a patient’s
probability of survival. Moreover, Plasma transfusions from recovered people with an antibody
preparation can treat them. It is difficult to conclude that these antibodies will have an effect in
the course of the disease affecting people (Bixler, Duplantier & Bavari, 2017).
The geographical area chosen for this attack will be a crowded place so that a large mass
of people can be attacked. Therefore the chosen location is a renowned hospital that has critical
patients resulting into high mortality rates. Ebola will be used as a weapon by taking a large
quantity and inserting into a bomb let or an explosive device. Once discharged, the virus will be
spread up to 30 feet infecting a large mass of people since it will be landed to their cuts, face or
hands that eventually end up getting into their eyes. The bomb will be planted in the space near
the stairs and will be diffused during the night. We have included some hospital staff who were

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EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
involved in this plan and kept us informed about
everything about the hospital, when and where
the plan can be executed. The attack rate will be
much higher since patients and doctors both will
be affected including every staffs of the hospital.
The virus itself spread from person to person
through contacts with body fluids, therefore
releasing it in such an explosive way will cause
devastation and serious damage impacting lives.
The fallout phase of the Ebola outbreak
has been numerically presented with graph
considering the infection rate as well as mortality
rate.
Table: “The Epidemic Database of Ebola virus
disease (EVD) based on impact estimation from
January 2020 to January2021”
Source: (Created By author)
Time New
Confirme
d Cases
Number
of
affected
population
Mortality
Rate
Jan,wk1 10 50 2
Jan,wk2 12 62 5
Jan,wk3 18 80 7
Jan,wk4 15 95 6
Feb, wk1 18 113 12
Feb, wk2 25 138 10
Feb, wk3 20 158 15
Feb, wk4 21 179 12
Mar,wk1 28 207 18
Mar,wk2 22 229 25
Mar,wk3 24 253 15
Mar,wk4 35 288 18
Apr,wk1 38 326 25
Apr,wk2 45 371 37
Apr,wk3 48 419 32
Apr,wk4 42 461 38
May,wk1 46 507 42
May,wk2 45 552 41
May,wk3 48 600 39
May,wk4 52 652 45
Jun.wk1 49 701 42
Jun.wk2 50 751 41
Jun.wk3 48 799 45
Jun.wk4 49 848 48
Jul, wk1 46 894 45
Jul, wk2 44 938 47
Jul, wk3 38 976 43
Jul, wk4 39 1015 45
Aug,wk1 35 1050 47
Aug,wk2 37 1087 38
Aug,wk3 31 1118 38
Aug,wk4 28 1146 35
Aug,wk5 29 1175 32
Sep,wk1 23 1198 35
Sep,wk2 18 1216 28
Sep,wk3 19 1235 30
Sep,wk4 17 1252 24
Oct,wk1 18 1270 25
Oct,wk2 19 1289 18
Oct,wk3 12 1301 22
Oct,wk4 11 1312 17
Nov,wk1 13 1325 15
Nov,wk2 10 1335 12
Nov,wk3 8 1343 13
Nov,wk4 7 1350 8
Dec,wk1 8 1358 9
Dec,wk2 5 1363 7
Dec,wk3 6 1369 6

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EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
Jan,wk1
Jan,wk3
Feb, wk1
Feb, wk3
Mar,wk1
Mar,wk3
Apr,wk1
Apr,wk3
May,wk1
May,wk3
Jun.wk1
Jun.wk3
Jul, wk1
Jul, wk3
Aug,wk1
Aug,wk3
Aug,wk5
Sep,wk2
Sep,wk4
Oct,wk2
Oct,wk4
Nov,wk2
Nov,wk4
Dec,wk2
Dec,wk4
Jun,wk2
Jun,wk4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
max :52
max: 47
Stable: 1369
New Confirmed Cases Mortality Rate Total affected population
Total Affected Poppulation
Figure: “The Epidemic curve of Ebola virus disease (EVD) based on impact estimation from January 2020 to January2021”
Source: (Created By author)

5EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
References:
2014-2016 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa | History | Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease) | CDC.
(2019). Cdc.gov.
Bixler, S., Duplantier, A., & Bavari, S. (2017). Discovering Drugs for the Treatment of
Ebola Virus. Current Treatment Options in Infectious Diseases, 9(3), 299-317.
doi:10.1007/s40506-017-0130-z
Fang, L., Yang, Y., Jiang, J., Yao, H., Kargbo, D., Li, X., & Jiang, B. et al. (2016).
Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in
Sierra Leone. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(16), 4488-
4493. doi:10.1073/pnas.1518587113
Judson, S., Prescott, J., & Munster, V. (2015). Understanding Ebola Virus Transmission.
Viruses, 7(2), 511-521. doi:10.3390/v7020511
Strauss, S. (2014). Ebola research fueled by bioterrorism threat. Canadian Medical
Association Journal, 186(16), 1206-1206. doi:10.1503/cmaj.109-4910