Estimation Model for Graduation Success – A Perspective with Student Retention in Online Courses

Estimation Model for Graduation Success – A Perspective with
Student Retention in Online Courses
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Abstract
With rapid growth of online programs, fears of retention rates are increasing. Models have
been developed to understand persistence of students in face-to-face situations, but many of
these structures do not exist for an online environment. Since the dropout is much higher in
online courses compared to face-to-face programs, the development of models to explain
online retention is considered a priority. This study moved in this direction by studying the
relationship between student retention and graduation rates for 29 colleges in the USA. Data
analysis shows an important and positive impact of higher retention on graduation rate of the
colleges.
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Introduction
The emphasis on higher education is increasingly focused on results rather than on structure.
Increased retention is thus objective of many institutions to assess and improve the quality of
its work. The dearth in a high percentage of retention has always challenged the education
system and this problem appears to be particularly acute in online courses.
This article creates a successful graduation percentage estimation model that takes retention
rate in colleges as the only predictor. The scholar believes that the model can serve as a
useful guide to choose the best university for the students in terms of successful completion
of courses.
Literature Review
This document outlines an estimation model to analyse the success percentage of graduation
in American colleges and universities. When it comes to online learning, the average number
seems of attrition seems to be higher than the traditional courses (Allen, & Seaman, 2010,
p.1-29). Although national statistics on distance learning are available, some claim that the
retention rate is 10 to 20% higher in online courses than on-campus education (Boston & Ice,
2010, p. 1593–1599).
E-learning is advancing from a marginal level in general education to an integrated part. In
the higher education sector, lack of resilience for a student is a complex and
multidimensional problem. Strategies for students' success should be considered as an
individual, institutional or program level (Cress, 2014, p. 294). Subsequent surveys have been
extended with various questions and factors that affect the retention of the students and their
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impact on the successful completion of programs (Halawa, Greene, & Mitchell, 2014, pp. 58–
65).
This study discusses the straight impact of retention rate on graduation rate in colleges and
universities of the USA (Talbert, 2012, p.22). Supplementary factors that affect student
performance, and support the student to succeed in formal education have been excluded
from the scope of this article (Xu, & Jaggars, 2013, p.5-25). A thorough review and validity
of the regression model in the context of e-learning suggest a moderately fit exemplary that
demonstrates the link between graduation rate and retention rate of the colleges (Tovar, 2014,
p. 766–782).
Methodology
A total of 29 colleges and universities in the USA were selected for the present research. The
sample size was less than 30, and this is an important limitation of the research (Schönbrodt,
& Perugini, 2013, p. 609–612). Among the surveyed institutes, the average rate of retention
was roughly 57.41%. The average rate of students successfully completing their graduation
was approximately 41.76%. This indicated that a large majority (58.24%) of the students
failed to successfully complete their programs to obtain graduation degree. Retention rate as
an independent factor was used to estimate the graduation rate of students (dependent
variable). A scatter plot was drawn for scrutinizing the linear relation between the variables.
A linear regression model was constructed and the validity, as well as statistical significance,
was investigated at a 5% level of significance (Montgomery, Peck, & Vining, 2012, p. 80-
100).
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