Evaluation of Belt and Road Initiative Project

This paper evaluates the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative on ASEAN economies, particularly Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. It discusses the main aspects of the initiative, benefits to South East Asian countries, and long-term sustainability. Regression models are used to measure the impact of BRI on economic growth of the respective nations.

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Evaluation of Belt and Road Initiative Project
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1EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Table of Contents
Introduction......................................................................................................................................2
Main aspects of Belt and Road initiative (BRI)...............................................................................3
Benefits to South East Asian countries........................................................................................6
Evaluation of BRI on the chosen countries.....................................................................................6
Comparison of Pre and Post BRI period....................................................................................11
Long term sustainability of BRI....................................................................................................14
Prediction for next five years.........................................................................................................16
Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................17
Reference list.................................................................................................................................20

2EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Introduction
The Belt and Road initiatives undertaken by China is considered as its biggest initiative
till data to strengthen its position in the global economy through projects that include 65 nations.
The project aims to connect different nations through building infrastructure that focusing on
transport and energy (Huang, 2016) Xi Jinping, the president of China in 2013 prosed to made
economic development through in terms of interlinking nations that can strengthen their trade
relation. The two proposed roots intended to cover more than sixty nations ranging from Asia to
Europe including nations in Southeast Asia, West Asia, Central Asia and Middle East. At
present, these nations together accounts around 30 percent world GDP and more than 35 percent
of total merchandise trade. The six main economic corridors built under BRI are- China-
Mongolia- Russia Corridor, China-Central Asia – West Asia Corridor, China-Indochina
Peninsula Corridor, China-Pakistan Corridor and Bangladesh- China-India-Myanmar Corridor
(Swaine, 2015).
The paper aims to evaluate impact of Belt and Road Initiatives for nation outside China.
The regions broadly covered under BRI are East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East
and North Africa, South Asia and Europe. The paper particularly focuses on BRI impact on
ASEAN economies. For this, four countries are chosen namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore
and Vietnam as representatives of ASEAN. Apart from theoretical consideration evaluation is
largely based on empirical evidences obtained from the four chosen nations. To find out the
effect of BRI on economic growth of the respective nation for different regression models are
framed taking GDP as dependent variables and export, import and unemployment as explanatory
variables. The movement of average GDP, export, import and unemployment in the pre and post
BRI period are compared before reaching any firm conclusion about the potential impact of BRI.

3EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Additionally, the paper also discusses aspects related to long terms sustainability of the
initiatives based on which future prediction can be made.
Main aspects of Belt and Road initiative (BRI)
The five key objectives of Belt and Road initiatives are discussed as follows
Policy Coordination
The first priority of the project is to increase policy coordination among nation which will
enhance intergovernmental communication and coordination. The increasing communication and
coordination in turn promotes overall trade, transfer of knowledge, increase in trust and political
stability and reduction in political barriers present in regional projects (Wang, 2016). To fulfill
objective of the project, it is necessary to promote policy for building intergovernmental
mechanism which will help to build trust and mutual consensus for economic and political
cooperation.
Development of infrastructure
This is another important motivation behind the design of BRI. It encourages
development of infrastructure to establish connectivity across all the sub-regions of Asia, Africa
and Europe. The main rationale is that growing connectivity would help to reduce the existing
logistical and structural barriers in trade. The infrastructural development should be undertaken
keeping in mind each of the participating nation’s sovereignty and security. For this, the
participating nations should be make active plan to connect infrastructure and implement suitable
technical standard toward developing international passageways (Liu & Dunford, 2016). The
project intensively focuses on development of transport infrastructure, supporting energy
infrastructure, cross-border cable and different other communication network.

4EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Unimpeded trade
Flawless trade is one of the primary objective of designed BRI project. One key
motivations for the project is to create a favorable business environment for different countries
and regions connected through the routes by eliminating barriers and attract investors. All these
should be done by designing agreement on bilateral investment protection in order to protect
their legitimate rights and interest (Cheng, 2016). The focus is to broaden trade areas and
improvement of trade structure besides identifying new growth areas and promote a balanced
trade.
Financial Integration
One vital part of implementation of BRI is enhancement of financial integration among
countries through stabilizing currencies exchange, credit system and investment and financing
system. In connection to this, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was developed to
accomplish this role. The institution was formed to provide financial support and necessary
funding to implement BRI. This is further enhanced by creation of Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO). Countries involve in AIIB and SCO will cooperate in the financial
integration to make better use of Silk Road Fund along with sovereign wealth fund (Djankov &
Miner, 2016). This will also encourage investment through commercial equity funds and other
private investors to participate in developing BRI projects.
People-to-people bonds
The Belt and Road Initiative projects aims to promote cultural and academic exchange
between people in different nations and regions. Successful achievement of this goal will help to
gather great public support and strengthen bilateral and multilateral cooperation across countries.

5EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
The B&R initiative has the potential to foster cross border exchange leading to multinational
cooperation (Wang, 2016). This in turn will create stability and encourage investment which us
beyond the home country.
Benefits of Belt and Road Initiative outside China
The benefits of the proposed Belt and Road initiative project is not limited to China only.
It covers numerous countries of Europe, Africa and Asia. The foreign trade and investment
relation plays an important role in distributing the benefits of Belt and Road initiatives to other
nations. International trade explains a mutually beneficial exchange of goods or services among
different nations. In the process, both the participating nations are benefitted by producing and
exporting goods in line of their specialization (Callahan, 2016). One of primary objective of Belt
and Road Initiative project is to promote a barrier free trade among nations. The active
participation of China in foreign trade offers a broad market for its trading partners. China’s
import since 2001 have grown approximately by five times accounting 20 percent of the annual
growth. The growing imports of China contribute a significant proportion of world economic
growth by providing nations a widely extended export market. Currently, China offers the largest
export market to nations like Japan, Republic of Korea, ASEAN, Australia, South Africa and
Brazil. China is the second largest export market for EU and third largest export market for US
and India. The main imports of China include crude oil, plastic in the primary forms, iron ore,
copper, copper alloys and soybeans. Different exported goods of China help to satisfy demand of
these goods in different nations. The main exports of China include computers, telephones,
broadcasting equipment, machine part and integrated circuit. China export these items in
different regions of nations like United States, Hong Kong, Germany, Japan and South Korea

6EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
(Winter, 2016). International trade is an important channel that transmits benefits of Belt and
Road Initiative to other nations including China.
Benefits to South East Asian countries
South East Asian nations are expected to gain enormous benefits from China’s Belt and
Road Initiative Project. The members of Association of South East Asian Nations are benefitted
in terms of development of infrastructure, expansion of trade and financial integration. ASEAN
requires huge capital investment to materialize its Master Plan to enhance connectivity
(Summers, 2016). The Belt and Road Initiative that gain support from Silk Road Fund and Asian
Infrastructure Development Bank offers potential benefits to ASEAN region. ASEAN would
require an infrastructural investment of nearly $60 billion to $146 billion annually until 2025.
The Belt and Road Initiative plays a crucial role in upgrading Belt physical infrastructure of
these nations. Improved infrastructure helps these nations to achieve a sustained economic
growth in terms of improving logistical efficiency, reduction in transaction costs and increased
flow of trade and investment. The cooperation between ASEAN and China in terms of
connectivity is highly compatible with to the ASEAN connectivity. China and ASEAN
cooperation thus opens up broader prospects and huge potential gain (Lingliang, 2016).
Evaluation of BRI on the chosen countries
This section evaluates impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on the four chosen
members of ASEAN – Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam. The impact of concerned
initiative is measured is terms of economic growth of the respective nations. Gross Domestic
Product is taken as a representative variable for economic growth. The variables that are likely to
be affected from implementation of BRI include export and import through channel of

7EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
international trade, rate of unemployment and other economic variables. As GDP of a nation
changes with change in these variables, regression model is formed taking GDP as dependent
variables and export, import and unemployment as independent variables. The regression model
helps to explain the potential impact of these variables on GDP.
Malaysia
The table below shows the effect of export, import and unemployment rate on GDP of
Malaysia
Table 1: Regression model of GDP on Export, Import and Unemployment for Malaysia
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99
R Square 0.98
Adjusted R Square 0.96
Standard Error 7871748501.88
Observations 9
ANOVA
d
f SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1.3285E+22 4.43E+21 71.46592 0.00015842
Residual 5 3.09822E+20 6.2E+19
Total 8 1.35949E+22
Coefficients
Standard
Error
t
Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 1.4752E+11 1.10899E+11 1.33 0.241 -1.37558E+11 4.32592E+11
Export -1.5359011 0.312341404 -4.92 0.004 -2.338800255 -0.733001976
Import 2.84950789 0.316452051 9.00 0.000 2.036041993 3.662973779
Unemployment -1.911E+10 21065496085 -0.91 0.406 -73260688886 35040474301

8EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
The value of R square is obtained as 0.99. This indicates export, import and rate of
unemployment together constitute 99 percent variation in GDP of Malaysia. Unemployment has
a negative impact on GDP of Malaysia. That is as unemployment decreases, there is a gain in
economic growth in terms of an increase in GDP. The statistical significance of the explanatory
variables can be examined from the p value associated coefficients. The p value of coefficient for
export and import are 0.004 and 0.000. Both the p values are less than 5% significance level.
This implies import and exports are statically significant determinant of GDP. Finally, overall
significance of the model can be examined from the F statistics. The obtained F value is less than
0.05 indicating the model has an overall significance at 5% level of significance.
Indonesia
The regression result of GDP and associated variables for Indonesia is presented in the
following table.
Table 2: Regression model of GDP on Export, Import and Unemployment for Indonesia
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98
R Square 0.96
Adjusted R Square 0.94
Standard Error 34813043160.21
Observations 9
ANOVA
d
f SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1.45117E+23 4.84E+22 39.91275 0.000645868
Residual 5 6.05974E+21 1.21E+21
Total 8 1.51176E+23

9EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Coefficients
Standard
Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 1.32006E+12 1.84642E+11 7.15 0.001 8.45421E+11 1.7947E+12
Export 6.456416878 1.571610196 4.11 0.009 2.416464257 10.4963695
Import -4.821788462 1.562081146 -3.09 0.027 -8.837245882 -0.806331042
Unemployment -1.71972E+11
2631808800
9 -6.53 0.001 -2.39624E+11 -1.04319E+11
From the model the R square value is obtained as 0.98. The associated R square value indicate
goodness of fit of the estimated model. The model can be said as a good fit model as the three
explanatory variables (export, import and unemployment) together explain 98 percent variation
in GDP of Indonesia. The coefficient of export is positive indicating export has a positive
relation with GDP that is GDP of Indonesia increases with increase in export. For import and
unemployment, the coefficients are negative implying both the variables have an adverse effect
of GDP of Indonesia. With more and more import, GDP of Indonesia declines. Similarly, with
increase in incidence of unemployment, there is a decline in GDP. All the three explanatory
variables are statistically significant (p value less than 0.05) The model has an overall,
significance as obtained from the significant F value.
Singapore
Table 3: Regression model of GDP on Export, Import and Unemployment for Singapore
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.97
R Square 0.95
Adjusted R Square 0.92
Standard Error 12234157114.58
Observations 9
ANOVA
d
f SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1.38E+22 4.62E+21 30.83446 0.001190682

10EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Residual 5 7.48E+20 1.5E+20
Total 8 1.46E+22
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 1.82311E+11 1.3257E+11 1.375 0.227 -1.58471E+11 5.23093E+11
Export 0.200755083 1.576510269 0.127 0.904 -3.851793577 4.253303743
Import 0.150662284 1.649821179 0.091 0.931 -4.090338072 4.39166264
Unemployment -27694281594 18161722832 -1.525 0.188 -74380476411 18991913223
From the model the R square value is obtained as 0.97. The associated R square value indicate
goodness of fit of the estimated model. The model can be said as a good fit model as the three
explanatory variables (export, import and unemployment) together explain 97 percent variation
in GDP of Singapore. The coefficient of export is positive indicating export has a positive
relation with GDP that is GDP of Singapore increases with increase in export. For
unemployment, the coefficient is negative implying has an adverse effect of GDP of Singapore.
With increase in unemployment, there is a decline in GDP. The model has an overall
significance, as obtained from the significant F value.
Vietnam
Table 4: Regression model of GDP on Export, Import and Unemployment for Vietnam
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997
R Square 0.995
Adjusted R Square 0.991
Standard Error 3803730389.942
Observations 9
ANOVA
d
f SS MS F Significance F

11EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Regression 3 1.31326E+22 4.38E+21 302.5579 4.5166E-06
Residual 5 7.23418E+19 1.45E+19
Total 8 1.32049E+22
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 65420764979 17715797651 3.693 0.014 19880857334 1.1096E+11
Export 1.777881702 0.603970883 2.944 0.032 0.22532512 3.33043828
Import -1.11729891 0.648810164 -1.722 0.146 -2.785118533 0.55052071
Unemploymen
t rate 2915291002 9532410660 0.306 0.772 -21588550690 2.7419E+10
From the model the R square value is obtained as 0.99. The associated R square value indicate
goodness of fit of the estimated model. The model can be said as a good fit model as the three
explanatory variables (export, import and unemployment) together explain 99 percent variation
in GDP of Vietnam. The coefficient of export is positive indicating export has a positive relation
with GDP that is GDP of Vietnam increases with increase in export. For import and
unemployment, the coefficients are negative implying both the variables have an adverse effect
of GDP of Vietnam. With more and more import, GDP of Vietnam declines. Similarly, with
increase in incidence of unemployment, there is a decline in GDP. The overall significance of the
model has been established from the significant value of F statistics.
Comparison of Pre and Post BRI period
In the previous section, four significant regression model has been developed fir
modeling GDP and economic growth of the four chosen countries. After having the impact of
concerned variables on GDP, the potential effect of BRI can be measured through the impact of
the concerned project on export, import and unemployment rate. The Belt and Road Initiative has
been undertaken in the year 2013. By comparing the movement of these factors before and after

12EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Belt and Road Initiative, the impact of BRI outside China can be traced. To do so, average
export, import and unemployment rate before the period 2013 and after 2013 has been compared.
Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Vietnam
0
100000000000
200000000000
300000000000
400000000000
500000000000
600000000000
Comparison of Export
Before BRI After BRI
Figure 1: Comparison of Export in pre and post BRI period
The figure above shows how average export volume has been changed after BRI for the four
chosen nations. For Malaysia and Indonesia, export has been marginally declined after BRI.
However, for Singapore and Vietnam export has been considerable increased in the post BRI
period. The extent of increase in export volume in larger in Vietnam than that in Singapore.

13EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Vietnam
0
100000000000
200000000000
300000000000
400000000000
500000000000
600000000000
Comparison of Import
Before BRI After BRI
Figure 2: Comparison of Import in pre and post BRI period
In Malaysia average import after BRI has increased slightly showing dependency of the
nation on import. In Indonesia, there has been a marginal reduction in import. In case of
Singapore and Vietnam import has been increased in the posy BRI implying an increase in
volume of trade in these nations.
Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Vietnam
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Comparison of Unemployment
Before BRI After BRI

14EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
Figure 3: Comparison of Unemployment in pre and post BRI period
After implementation of BRI all the four nations have experienced a decline in unemployment.
In Malaysia unemployment has been decline only marginally with average unemployment
reduced to 3.21 percent in post BRI period from 3.23 in earlier. For rest of the three nations,
there is a noticeable decline in the rate of unemployment.
Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Vietnam
0
100000000000
200000000000
300000000000
400000000000
500000000000
600000000000
700000000000
800000000000
900000000000
1000000000000
Comparison of Gross Domestic Product
Before BRI After BRI
Figure 4: Comparison of GDP in pre and post BRI period
Growing volume of trade and decline in unemployment have contributed to an increase in
observed GDP in the post BRI period. For the four chosen nations average GDP is observed to
be higher in post BRI period as compared to average GDP in pre BRI GDP. This indicates Belt
and Road Initiatives have significant implication for countries outside China and especially for
ASEAN.
Long term sustainability of BRI

15EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
The success of Belt and Road Initiative subject to prioritization of long term concern for
all the involved nations. In a phase of climate change sustainability is largely depend on the shift
from consumption of fossils towards use of a cleaner energy source. In discussing long term
sustainability, the first aspect to be considered is the aspect associated with environmental
degradation. The previous development model of China though successful is achieving a
promising growth rate but lead to huge environmental degradation (Arase, 2015). In between
2005 and 2016, only 18 percent investment directed in infrastructural project while 40 percent
went to energy projects. Besides, most of the overseas Chinese companies are accused for
neglecting environment concern. The issue is more important for Belt and Road Initiative project
as planned roads are passed through some of the most vulnerable ecosystem in the world. Some
of these regions are the most precious carbon sink (Yunling, 2015).
In this regard, the good news is that China is adapting the model of sustainable
development in place of its old growth model. Implementing Belt and Road Initiative project
keeping in mind environmental protection has some valid economic sense. This will help to
achieve a political and economic stability for China and other involved members. The main
focus to ensure long term imperatives. The long-term aspect should not be sacrificed for short
term profitability. This requires implementation of proper rule and regulation under vigilance of
high level of political support (Li et al., 2015). The long run sustainability also depends on
assessments made by various stakeholders involved in Belt and Road Initiatives. China should
make information available to the public regarding belt and Road Initiative project overseas so
that it can be scrutinized by local and international communities.
The Belt and Road Initiative project indicates the potential benefits to rest of the world
from rise of China. The sustainable development strategy adapted by China will help to ensure

16EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
economic viability of the Belt and Road Initiatives investment. The world economy is
decarbonizing rapidly following clean energy technologies implemented by China (Fallon,
2015). Investments that considered social and environment contexts are always welcomed rather
than opposed it.
It has been increasingly realized that only sustainable investment driven growth model is
able to deliver a high-quality growth. This in the long run helps to recover reduce poverty along
with protecting environment. Such aspects are particularly important for less developed countries
like Africa. The African Progress Panel state their its view that full economic potential and
access to electricity can only be achieved through a clean energy and sustainable development
(Yunling, 2015).
Prediction for next five years
The Belt and Road Initiative project of China is moving forward with a brighter
prospective gain. Gaining support from various nations across the world, the taken initiatives
have strengthened trade corridors at the international level. China is committed to invest
approximately USD 350 billion on the project by 2022. Apart China, there are ten more markets
that constitutes approximately two third of the BRI GDP (Zimmerman, 2015). The project has
been predicted to bring new commercial opportunities for home and foreign countries in the next
five years. The significant markets of BRI include India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore,
Vietnam, Thailand, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and others. At present, there are six different trade
corridoes that are developing and cover nearly 69 percent of world population accounting more
than 50 percent of GDP. Data collected from Chinese government indicates that already 50
Chinese State Owned Enterprises have already invested in more than 1700 projects under Belt
and Road Initiative since launching of the projects (Yu, 2017). This number is expected to

17EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
increase both domestically and internationally as on account of growing interest of the private
investors. China’s BRI is set to be a driving force in shaping economic landscape at global scale.
Initially though development of infrastructure was the key objective, the project is expected to
expand in the field of telecommunication and technology, manufacturing and even consumer
goods and retail services within the next five years and beyond that. Overall, BRI is no set to
bring a next generation of investment wave for China and rest of the world (Liu & Dunford,
2016).
Table 5: Predicted GDP (in billion) for next five years in ASEAN nation
Year Malaysia Indonesia
Singapor
e Vietnam
2018 339.58 1044.52 344.11 239.28
2019 348.87 1081.92 356.29 253.96
2020 358.15 1119.32 368.46 268.63
2021 367.44 1156.73 380.63 283.31
2022 376.72 1194.13 392.81 297.99
The table above shows predicted GDP of Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam for the
next five years. For all the nations, Gross Domestic Product tend to increase in the next five
years. With successful implementation of BRI the South East Asian nations expected to be
benefitted in terms of an increase in volume of trade. With expansion of investment and
economic activities new job opportunities will be created which will contribute to a decline in
rate of unemployment (Zimmerman, 2015). All these together will benefit these nations by
raising Gross Domestic Product and bringing greater prospect of economic growth.
China and other participating nations should be careful regarding potential risk associated
with BRI. Companies that are working with BRI projects might face the risk of restriction
imposed on foreign investment, antitrust regulation, local laws regarding employment and

18EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
environment, structure of tax as well as some political risk in country’s jurisdictions (Cheng,
2016).
Conclusion
China initiated Belt and Road Initiatives have become an integral development program
with far reaching implication for East Asia including ASEAN and China. It provides significant
momentum for trade and investment for Asian and European nations. China led initiatives are
expected to encourage infrastructure, trade, tourism and logistic. The five key aspects of BRI are
policy coordination, development of infrastructure, promotion of barrier free trade, financial
integration and connectivity among people. China provides the largest export market for
countries in ASEAN group. For all the four nations, Gross Domestic Produce depend
significantly on export, import and unemployment. BRI by strengthening connectivity among
nations lead to an increase in volume of trade in term of an increase in both export and import.
By increasing investment and several projects designed under BRI new employment
opportunities are likely to be created. With more and more people getting employed in these
nations unemployment has been reduced significantly. The increase in trade volume along with a
decline in unemployment together constitute an increase in average GDP of these nations in the
post BRI period. An increase in nation’s GDP has a positive signal for economic growth of the
chosen nations.
Long term sustainability of the project depends on long term perspective of it. The earlier
development model of China put environment sustainability at stake. This raises question
whether China-led initiative will be sustained in the long run. The positive side is that, the Belt
and Road Initiative project has been prioritized long term perspectives over the short run
profitability goals. China has invested huge amount in clean energy projects which are expected

19EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
to reduce the threat of environmental degradation. Initiatives taken following the target of
environment protection ensure long term sustainability of the project.
Various State Owned enterprises have already taken interest in different projects under
BRI. Participation in terms of huge investment helps to gain confidence of private investors
which are likely to increase investment in the projects in the next five years. The BRI has a
bright future prospects in in terms of growing participation of different nations. The project is
gradually expanding to extend beyond the area of infrastructural development. In the next few
years, it is projected to benefits sectors like telecommunication, technology, consumer goods and
other retail sectors. In addition to providing significant opportunities to the participating nations,
the concerned project has the potential risk to companies such as restricted foreign investment,
antitrust law, employment and environmental regulation, tax structure and some political
barriers.

20EVALUATION OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PROJECT
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