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Executive Summary Valuation is a must requirement for assessing an asset of a company in the market before making any investment or other purposes. For valuation purposes, an analyst needs to understand risk and return relationship, tailors required rate of return, uses this rate as discount rate for assuming the value of a stock and determines a price which might be different from market price. Undiversifiable risk is the main concern of majority of people while deciding required rate of return of a stock. BETA, measuring that risk, is 1.37 based on historical monthly data of 5 years for BXPH stock, showing higher volatility corresponding to market volatility. CAPM Method suggests that required return rate be 7.11%. Current price of this stock is 120 Taka found using constant dividend growth model. Growth rate is 5.93% found on the basis of 17% payout ratio and 7.14% ROE. Value per share of Beximco Pharma is assumed through comparables methods. Using P/E ratio, price of the share is 146 Taka. P/B ratio of 0.87 implies Beximco Pharma is undervalued while P/S ratio of 1.49 says Beximco Pharma is overvalued. Calculated price and market price do not match because constant growth rate model has limitations like being inflexible with dynamic economy, disregarding non-dividend factors.Qualityofinformationdisclosedbycompaniesisalsoafactorfor mismatching calculation and market price. i
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Table of Contents Executive Summary......................................................................................................ii Chapter One: Introduction............................................................................................1 1.1 Objectives of the Study.......................................................................................1 1.2 Description of the study......................................................................................1 1.3 Methodology........................................................................................................1 1.4 Limitations...........................................................................................................2 Chapter Two: Company overview................................................................................3 Chapter Three: Valuation Exercise..............................................................................4 3.1 BETA...................................................................................................................4 3.2 CAPM Method...................................................................................................12 3.3 Estimation of the constant dividend growth rate of Beximco Pharmaceutical..14 3.4 Estimation of Current Stock Price of Beximco Pharmaceuticals......................16 3.5 “Method of Comparables” stock valuation approach........................................17 3.6 Critical analysis of the difference between calculated price and market price of Beximco Pharma stock...........................................................................................24 Chapter Four: Conclusion...........................................................................................27 References.................................................................................................................28 Appendix.....................................................................................................................30 vii
Chapter One: Introduction Valuation is the analytical process of determining the current (or projected) worth of an asset or a company. Business management, capital structure, earnings prospect, market value, economic condition, business cycle are some important factors for placing a value on any company. Although many methods are available for valuation, no single method can suit every stock. Different methods can result in different values which may suggest different price of an asset compared to market price. And again, valuation can be changed frequently with the change in corporate earnings and economic events, making Analysts remodeling their methods. Analyst has to employ a suitable set of valuation methods complying each situation to find the appropriate result before making or suggesting an investment decision. 1.1 Objectives of the Study The report is mainly made for academic purposes. It serves for students to apply the knowledge achieved throughout the course to calculate and understand the risk associated, return movement with respect to market, price and value of a particular company stock. 1.2 Description of the study ThisreportcontainsapplicationofvariousvaluationmethodsontheBeximco Pharma stock. CAPM BETA and CAPM method are applied on market return and Beximco Pharma stock return of 5 consecutive historical years' monthly data, horizon andfrequencyhavebeencarefullychosenbasedonourbestjudgementwe developed throughout the course lessons. Constant dividend growth model is used to calculate the stock price of Beximco Pharma based on a growth rate derived from using payout ratio of Beximco Pharma. P/E ratio, P/B ratio, P/S ratio of 'methods of comparables' are calculated for Beximco Pharma using most recent historical data from financial statements. Finally, calculated price and market price of Beximco Pharma stock differed and the reasons have been critically evaluated. 1.3 Methodology Tasks were divided based on each team member’s skills and convenience. Everything learned during course F-203 were reviewed. 1
Alistedcompanybasedonregularcashdividendpaymenthistorywas selected. Relevant information to required valuation methods was accumulated. Valuation methods were exercised on company stock by assigned group member. Calculation and evaluation were structured in presentable manner with proper reference. 1.4 Limitations Lack of experience. Lack of in-depth knowledge of valuation and market. Constraints due to pandemic. Complications in choosing the appropriate data set to use. Assumption for proxy components. 2
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Chapter Two: Company overview Figure 1:Logo of Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd.Source:Ahamed, 2020 BeximcoPharmaceuticalsLtd(BeximcoPharma)isoneofthelargest pharmaceutical companies in Bangladesh. The company was established in 1976 in Bangladesh and started commercial drug production in 1980. 'Life's all about staying healthy and enjoying the good things in life! However, illness is inevitable at all stages of life'- with this viewpoint, the company is an emerging generic drug player committed to providing access to affordable medicines. Currently they are producing more than 500 products. Beximco Pharma is accredited by many renowned regulatory authorities of world. Rising cost of healthcare and medicines is a global concern. In order to reduce cost across the value chain, pharmaceutical companies from developed markets are partneringwithBangladeshidrugplayerBeximcoPharmaforoutsourcingtheir production, as our country possesses probably the lowest labor cost. Beximco Pharma has so far exported medicines to more than 40 countries around the world (Rahman and Saha, 2015). For relevance of our study, Beximco Pharma was listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in 1985, later in Chittagong stock exchange of Bangladesh and in alternative investments market (aim) of London stock exchange. Their paid-up capital amounts Taka4,461.1million,numberofshareholdersAround56,000;totalshares 446,112,089. Shares listed with local Stock Exchanges of Bangladesh (ordinary share) are 346,074,100 (77.58%). No. of GDRs listed on AIM in London Stock Exchange 100,037,989 (22.42%), these shares are not traded in DSE and CSE. 3
Chapter Three: Valuation Exercise 3.1 BETA People believing in portfolio theory, find risk as diversifiable and non-diversifiable. Diversifiable risk can be mitigated by investment portfolio (Calin et al., 2013). It is non-diversifiable risk that actually concerns the investors as it cannot be avoided. Most Investors consider systematic risk as the actual measurement of an asset's risk. This systematic risk is measured by BETA. CAPM BETA is a theoretical measure of the way how a single stock moves with respecttotheoverallmarket,bytakingcorrelationbetweentheboth;market represents the unsystematic risk and beta represents the systematic risk. Calculation of BETA for Beximco Pharma Stock; BETA calculation formula can be stated- covariance of market return and stock return divided by variance of market return. To calculate the BETAB of Beximco Pharma stock we need: > Market return index > Beximco Pharma Stock return index Analyst decides for which period of time and how frequent data he or she wants to use for BETA calculation. BETA is dependent on time horizon and data frequency (Calin et al., 2013). BETA calculated using daily data of one year and using monthly data of five years will not be same. These choices make BETA more appropriate and tailored when they are right. But these choices are also the weakness of this measurement if chosen wrongly. Besides, analyst has to choose the stock market proxy from all available indexes in the market while different prices like closing price, maximum and minimum prices of the day, avg price of the day are available there. We used our best judgement developed based on course lessons and available study materials to make the choices of time horizon and sample frequency. 4
Time horizon We have taken 5 years market return index and Beximco Pharma stock index. Since the longer the time horizon for data is, the more accurate calculated BETA will be. This 5-year time horizon covers pre-pandemic boosting cycle of market in the last two months of 2017 and half of 2018; as well as during pandemic weak performance of market, huge fall of mid 2020; and current rapid rising index since the start of 2021 by around 13% too. Thus, business cycle is covered well by this time period and calculation will be closer to accuracy. Sample frequency We have chosen monthly data for market return index and Beximco Pharma stock return index. The reason behind making this choice is mainly avoiding data noise. Using daily data of 5 years would have been closest to accuracy but we hoped that from students view point, we would be able to handle monthly data frequency for 5 years better and monthly data will be representative enough for the whole month's transactions without much deviation. We have taken adjusted closing price so that impact of cash dividend and stock dividend are also included in calculation. Stock market proxy There are two secondary markets: Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE). There are three indexes associated with the DSE. The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) includes all the companies listed on the exchange. The DSE 30 Index (DS30) tracks the 30 largest companies by market capitalization. The DSE Shariah Index (DSES) includes DSEX stocks that comply with Shariah law. We chose DSEX that is DSE broad index as stock market proxy since it is representative of the trend of whole market, not just good performing companies. That way we can get result closer to reality. We have collected all the relevant data from a website investing.com according to our need. We know, BETA formula B= (Covariance of stock return with the market return)/ Variance of market return 5
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BETA Calculation in Excel BETA is a measure of stock price variability in relation to the overall stock market. BETA is calculated by covariance of stock return and market return divided by variance of market return. Step 1: Download the Stock Prices & Index Data for the past 5 years Step 2: Sort the Dates & Adjusted Closing Prices for downloaded data set. Open, High, Low, Close & Volume are not required for BETA Calculations. Step 3: Prepare a single sheet of Stock Prices Data & Index Data. Step 4: Calculate the Fractional Monthly Return by any return less previous return divided by previous return for both the stock return and market return. Step 5: Calculate BETA – Three Methods Either of the three methods can be used to calculate BETA – 1) Variance/Covariance Method 2) Slope Function in excel 3) Data Regression In our study, we used 1st method- variance/covariance method where covariance of fractional market return and BXPH stock return and variance of fractional market return are separately calculated using Excel formulas and finally divided to find the BETA coefficient. 6
17-Oct88.55-8.80%2,168.03-0.44% 17-Sep97.09-1.48%2,177.611.82% 17-Aug98.55-2.95%2,138.72-0.22% 17-Jul101.55-1.15%2,143.502.86% 17-Jun102.734.44%2,083.803.92% 17-May98.36-2.53%2,005.18-0.54% 17-Apr100.910.55%2,016.13-3.57% 17-Mar100.3619.60%2,090.753.21% 17-Feb83.915.85%2,025.821.64% 17-Jan79.277.92%1,993.1510.06% 16-Dec73.45-1.95%1,810.912.00% 16-Nov74.916.74%1,775.332.42% 16-Oct70.18-7.11%1,733.43-2.55% 16-Sep75.550.37%1,778.702.50% 16-Aug75.27-4.50%1,735.36-1.97% 16-Jul78.821,770.28 Table1:StockReturnofBeximcoPharmaandMarketReturnSource: Investing.com By putting the formula of covariance, variance and BETA in Excel, we got the value as below; Covariance0.003779864 Variance of market return0.00275131 BETA1.373841552 Table 2:Calculation of BETASource:Author’s Made. 8
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Graphical presentation of the relationship between BXPH stock return and market return Figure 2:Graphical representation of BXPH return VS Market return Source:Author’s Made Interpretation: The beta coefficient for the entire market equals to 1. All other betas are viewed in relation to this value. Positive betas of assets are normal which means stock price moves in the se direction as market. Most of the beta coefficients fall between .5 to 2. BETA 0.5 means the return of a stock is half as responsive as the market that is stock price changes .5 percent for each 1 percent change of market return. BETA as per our calculation for BXPH stock is 1.37. So, the return of stock moves to same direction 1.37 percent for each 1 percent change is the return of market portfolio. BETA of BXPH stock possesses higher level of risk and volatility compared to stock market as in higher returns in the rising market, signifying higher downside and risk. 9 -15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% f(x)=1.39769037876263x+0.0112412204419544 R²=0.495404909649417 BXPH return VS Market return MARKET RETURN BXPH RETURN
Although pharmaceuticals industry is a low beta sector, that is not correlated with economicgrowthswing,BXPHstockBETAisrelativelyhigherandeffected significantly by economic changes in Bangladeshi Stock market context. Advantages of CAPM BETA > Single measures to provide an understanding of security volatility as compared to the market. > Therefore, helps an investor to make decisions of adding or deleting a security from portfolio. > Considers systematic risk, thereby providing the real picture of the risks involved since unsystematic risk is mitigated by portfolio. Disadvantages of CAPM BETA > “Past Performance is no guarantee of future” – This rule also applies on BETA. Using this historical beta may not hold true in the future. > Cannot accurately measure BETA for new Stocks, unlisted or private stocks. > BETA does not tell us whether the stock was more volatile during the bear phase orthebullphase.Itdoesnotdistinguishbetweenupswingsordownswing movements of economy. Levered vs. Unlevered BETA Levered BETA or Equity BETA is the BETA that contains the effect of capital structure, i.e., Debt and Equity both (Margaritis and Psillaki, 2010). The beta that we calculated above is the Levered BETA. Unlevered BETA is the BETA after removing the effects of the capital structure. As seen above, once we remove the financial leverage effect, we will be able to calculate Unlevered BETA. Unlevered BETA can be calculated using the following formula – BETA (Unlevered) = BETA (levered)/ [1+ (1-tax) * (Debt/Equity)] Debt/equity ratio of Beximco Pharma is= Total Liabilities/ Total Equity = (35569.55 / 15649.75) Million BDT = 23.46% 10
Here, tax rate of Beximco Pharma is 25% BETA (levered)/ Asset BETA is 1.37 So, BETA (unlevered)/ Equity BETA >1.37/ [1+ (1- .25) * .2346] >1.37/ [ 1+.17595] >1.37/ 1.17595 =1.17 Thus, unlevered BETA of Beximco Pharma stock is 1.17 Why Unlevering BETA Unlevering' the beta removes any beneficial or detrimental effects gained by adding debt to the firm's capital structure. Comparing companies' unlevered betas gives an investor clarity on the composition of risk being assumed when purchasing the stock. Since companies have different capital structures and levels of debt, an analyst can calculate the unlevered beta to effectively compare them against each other or against the market. This way, only the sensitivity of a firm’s assets (equity) to the market will be factored. 11
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3.2 CAPM Method The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) links non-diversifiable risk to expected returns (Dayala, 2012). Using the beta coefficient to measure non-diversifiable risk, the CAPM is given by Ke= Rf+ (Rm– Rf) Bi WhereKe= required rate on asset. Rf= risk free rate of return, commonly measured by the return on a government treasury bill Bi= beta coefficient of non-diversifiable risk of asset i Rm= market return on the market portfolio of assets The CAPM can be divided into two parts: > The risk-free rate of return, Rf, is the required return on a risk-free asset, typically a government issued treasury bill. > The risk premium, (Rm– Rf), is the market risk premium as it represents the premium that that the investor must receive for taking the average amount of risk associated with holding the market portfolio of assets. Hence, the market premium is adjusted for the asset's BETA to get the risk premium. The risk premium is added to risk free rate resulting in the required return of that asset. If other things are equal, the higher the beta, the higher the required rate of return and vice versa. This required rate is used as discount rate in further valuation and calculation for making investment decision. Discount rate for Beximco Pharma using CAPM Method To calculate an appropriate discount rate for Beximco Pharma, a risk-free rate is needed along with beta for Beximco Pharma stock and market return rate which are already retrieved through proper calculation method. Risk free rate variable To construct the security market line, we have taken 2.05% annual rate as the risk- free rate. This is the T-bill rate that the banks can borrow from the Government of Bangladesh. 12
Hence, our chosen risk-free rate is 2.05%. Market return rate is 5.74%. BETA coefficient of BXPH stock is 1.37 Risk premium of BXPH stock = (Rm– Rf) Bi= (5.74% - 2.05%)*1.37 = 5.0553% that is 5.06% Which means investors expect a 5.06% risk premium to take average amount of risk holding the BXPH stock. So, required rate of return for BXPH stock, Ke(BXPH) = risk free rate + risk premium = 2.05% + 5.06% = 7.11% The goal of the CAPM formula is to evaluate whether a stock is fairly valued when its risk and the time value of money are compared to its expected return. The expected return of the CAPM formula is used to discount the expected dividends and capital appreciation of the stock over the expected holding period. Now that we found the required return rate of BXPH stock, we can use this 7.11% as the discount rate for further valuation process to decide whether to buy the BXPH stock or not. Limitations of CAPM There are several assumptions behind the CAPM formula that have been shown not to hold in reality. Modern financial theory rests on two assumptions: (1) securities markets are very competitive and efficient (that is, relevant information about the companies is quickly and universally distributed and absorbed); (2) these markets are dominated by rational, risk-averse investors, who seek to maximize satisfaction from returns on their investments. But in the context of DSE, ours is a semi-efficient market and all small investors do not have the same information, do not use same level of rationale while examining risk associated with the asset, definitely are not same risk averse. However, studies have provided support for the existenceof the expectational relationship described by CAPM in active market. This model is now widespread used by corporations to assess the required return of their shareholders. 13
3.3Estimationoftheconstantdividendgrowthrateof Beximco Pharmaceutical Constant Dividend Growth Model In case of buying or selling decision of stock, investors need to evaluate their stock. TherearesomestockvaluationmethodssuchasAbsoluteStockValuation, Discounted Cash Flow model (Al Mamun, 2019). The constant growth model is the most popular of them. The constant growth model is also known as the Gordon Growth model is a widely used approach for stock valuation. We assume that in this model company’s future dividend is going to rise forever at a constant rate. BeximcoPharmaceutical’sconstantdividendgrowthrate calculation and interpretation From Beximco Pharma's annual report, we got The total dividend = 598,533,844 TAKA Shareholders equity = 49,214,092,360 TAKA The net income = 3514,690,000 TAKA Payout Ratio:The payout ratio is used to determine the continuity of a firm’s dividend program (Haque, 2015). This financial metric represents this number of dividends are paid to shareholder relative to the total net income of a company We know, Payout ratio = The total dividend/ Net income 0.170294918 = 598,533,844/ 351,469,000 Beximco Pharma’s payout ratio is 17%. Interpretation:Here, the payout ratio is 17%, which means for every BDT in net incomeBeximcopharmaceuticalspay17%takaasdividendtoshareholders. Usually, a range of 0% to 35%payout ratio is considered as the standard payout ratio of any company. But ours is 17.03% which is below the standard. Beximco should pay the dividend more regarding its net income. 14
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Return on Equity:Return on equity is a financial profitability ratio that shows how much profit a company can generate from its shareholder investment. High ROE is always required. Return on Equity = The net income/ Shareholders equity = (3,514,690,000/ 49,214,092,360 ) =0.071416333 Beximco Pharma’s return on equity 7.14%. Interpretation:15% to 20% is considered as flag ROE for any business entity. Here, the return on equity is 7.14% which is below the standard one. It means Beximco should use its investor’s funds more effectively and efficiently. Constant Growth Rate:Constant growth rate is used to find the present value of stock and here important parameters are current stock dividend, required rate of return and expected dividend growth rate (Calin et al., 2013). This stable growth rate valuation helps the investor to make the right investment decisions. Constant growth rate = (1-payout ratio) * ROE = (1- 0.170294918) * 0.071416333 = 5.93% Beximco Pharma’s constant growth rate is 5.93%. Interpretation:Here, the constant dividend growth rate is 5.93% which is quite an excellent growth rate for Beximco. From this, investors can get a positive prediction in the case of investing in Beximco. 15
3.4EstimationofCurrentStockPriceofBeximco Pharmaceuticals The current price of a stock means the recent selling price of the stock and this is the most dependable index of that particular security’s present value. The market price is also known as the current price. This price usually determined by the intensity of supply and demand. Current stock price:Next year’s expected dividend, required rate of return on equity and expected constant dividend growth rate are required to calculate the current stock price. From Beximco Pharma’s annual report, Dividend paid this year (D0) = 1.36 TAKA Growth rate (g) = 5.93% Next year's expected dividend per share (D1) = D0* (1+g) = 1.36* (1+0.0593) = 1.440586112. Therefore, Beximco’s next year expected dividend per share is TAKA. 1.440586112. We know, Current Stock Price = D1/Ke- g Where, D1= Next year's expected dividend per share Ke= Required rate of return on equity/ Discount rate g = Expected constant dividend growth rate Beximco Pharmaceutical’s Current Stock Price = D1/ Ke- g = 1.440586112/ (7.12-5.93) =120.5964946. Therefore, Beximco’s current stock price is TAKA 120.5964946. 16
3.5 “Method of Comparables” stock valuation approach Method of Comparables is a relative valuation approach used to estimate value per share of a corporation (Damodaran, 2012). The comparables approach's core idea is that an equity's value should be comparable to other stocks in a similar class. The most typical primary comparative technique examines market comparables for a businessanditsrivals.Thesecondcomparablemethodexaminesmarket transactions in which rivals, private equity firms, or other types of major, deep- pocketed investors have bought out or purchased similar businesses or divisions. Method of comparables includes Enterprise value to sales, price to earnings ratio, price to book value ratio and price to free cash flow. Price to earnings ratio and price to book value ratio is widely used for valuating a firm’s shares. We have been assigned to analyze the financial data of a publicly listed company and evaluate the value per share by using the comparables approach. So, after going through the financial data of Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd., we have calculated the company’s value per share by using price to earnings and price to book value method. Price to Earnings Ratio Valuation Method Price to earnings ratio is the commonly used method for valuation. It measures a company’s its current market price relative to its earnings per share (Damodaran, 2012). Individual investors and analysts use this method to relatively compare what should be the value of a company’s shares in an apples-to-apples comparison. The underlying assumption of this valuation technique is that a firm’s future earnings are considered to be an important determinant of what should be the value of the firm. Thetwomaincomponentsofthisvaluationmethodaremeasuringexpected earningspershareandmeanpriceearningsratiooftheindustry.Thesetwo components assist an investor or analyst to determine the value of the shares of a particular corporation. 17
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Stock Value of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD. in PE multiple method: Table 3:Calculation of Mean of Industry PE RatioSource:Author’s made A firm’s expected earnings per share can be calculated dividing expected net income of the firm by total shares outstanding in the company. Mean Industry PE ratio is the average price earnings multiple of competitor firms in the similar industry. So, after analyzing the financial statements of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD., we have taken the past 4 years data that includes the net income of the company and calculated the average to find out the expected earnings of the firm per share. For mean industry PE ratio, we differentiated the data regarding pharmaceutical company’s average price earning multiple. The combination of the components assists us to determine the company’s value per share according to the price earning multiple method. According to the financial data of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD., we have figured 18 Value Per Share in Price Earning Method = 6.336798673×23.1 = 146.3800494 Tk. Value Per Share in Price Earning Method = Expected Earnings of the Firm Per Share× Mean Industry PE ratio ParticularsTaka Historical Year-1 Net Income2,227,000,000 Historical Year-2 Net Income2,533,000,000 Historical Year-3 Net Income3,033,000,000 Historical Year-4 Net Income3,514,690,000 Total11,307,690,000 Expected Net Income2826922500 Total Outstanding share446,112,090 Expected EPS6.336798673 Mean of Industry PE Ratio23.1
out that expected eps of the company is 6.33 and mean industry price earning multiple is 23.1. So, value per share of the company in PE multiple method is 146.38 Tk. Advantage Price earning multiple method of valuation is the easiest way of figuring out what should be a company’s per share value. Most of the investors and analysts use this method for valuation because they want to justify whether they are paying a fair value for the particular company’s shares or not. The components of the methods are easy to access compared to Dividend Discounting Method (DDM) and Free- Cash-Flow method (FCF). Moreover, Similar competing companies are grouped together within the same industry for comparison makes this valuation method little bit advantageous for the investors to take decisions. Limitations But there are some issues attached to this valuation method as well. The underlying assumption related to the method is that the company’s growth in future earnings will be the same as to the industry. But normally this kind of assumptions are proved wrong as growth in future earnings are related to many parameters like company’s performance within the industry and so on. Company’s misleading presentation of net income makes it disadvantageous for the investors to take rational decisions. Moreover,thereisavaguedefinitionofindustrywhichmakesitcomplexto determine industry pe ratio. As, we have taken the financial information from the annual report of Beximco Pharmaceutical LTD., the data related net income was not fully justified. Because there might be the chance that the company’s management can manipulate financial information to show better company performance to the external parties. So, we weren’t sure about the presented financial statements was exactly shown in the right way or not. In the same way, the data that was collected regarding mean industry pe ratio has some noticeable issues as well. Industry categorizationcanbepossibleinbothbroaderandnarrowerway.Broder categorization provide less accurate information than narrower way. So, there was someconfusionarisingofhowindustrywascategorizedandPEratiowas calculated. 19
Price to Book Value Ratio Valuation Method Price to book value ratio is also a relative valuation method that compares a firm’s market capitalization to its book value (Dayala, 2012). It is also widely use because of its easy way of valuation. This method reflects the equity value relative to its book value of the equity. There are two components that are important for measuring price to book value ratio. One is market value per share of the firm and other is book value per share. Valuation of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD. in Price to Book Value Ratio: Table 4:Valuation of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTDSource:Investing.com 20 Price to Book Value Ratio =94.4335 109.0154988 = 0.866239214 Price to Book Value Ratio =Market Value Per Share Book Value Per Share ParticularsTaka Total Assets65,537,506,398 Intangible Asset580,960,330 Total Liabilities16,323,414,038 Total Outstanding share446,112,090 Market Value Per share94.4335 Book Value per share109.0154988
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The market value of the shares is the trading price of the particular company’s share in the market. Book value per share indicates that what will be the price of shares in the company if it immediately liquidates its assets after paying off liabilities. So, it can be calculated through deducting intangible assets and liabilities from the company’s assets and dividing the equity amount by total outstanding shares in the firm. In most of the cases, ratio 1 is considered to be the ideal benchmark. So, any value under the benchmark represents that the company is undervalued and its shares hold more value than its trading price. We had taken the market value of the shares of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD. which is 94.4335 and calculated the book value per share from taking the necessary data from the financial statements of the company and it is 109.0154988. So, Price to Book Value ratio of the company is .86. This ratio is indicatingthat,inthismethod,thestockpriceofBeximcoPharmaceuticalsis undervalued and investors have suitable buying option. Advantage Like Price earning multiple method, P/B ratio is widely use because of its simplicity. Since the financial data are easily available, investors and analysts use this valuation method to determine the particular firm’s share are undervalued or overvalued. Limitations Price to book value ratio has some limitations. It can’t be rationally utilized in companieshavingfewertangibleassets.Themostnoticeableissuesofthis valuation model are getting negative book value due to series of negative earnings. As a result, this method becomes less useful for the investors and analysts who wants to invest in stocks by relative valuation. Price to Sales Ratio Price to sales ratio is another relative valuation approach used by investors and analysts to determine stock value. This ratio indicates how much investors are ready to pay for company’s per dollar of sales. The two components that are used for calculating this ratio are market value per share and sales per share. 21 Price to Book Value Ratio =Market Value Per Share Sales Per Share
Table 5:Valuation of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTDSource:Investing.com Market value of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD. has been taken for measurement and sales per share has been determined dividing annual sales by total outstanding share of the particular company. The ideal benchmark of this ratio is also considered to be 1. Any value higher than this indicates that investors are paying higher price comparedtothecompany’ssales.So,thatmeans,acompany’ssharesare overvalued.We went through the financial statements of Beximco Pharmaceuticals LTD. for getting the related data for the ratio calculations and we found that the market value and sales per share is 94.4335 and 63.36524079 respectively. So, Price to Sales ratio is 1.49. This ratio is indicating that the share price of the particular company is overvalued. Here, existing investors have suitable selling option. Advantage 22 Price to Book Value Ratio =94.4335 63.36524079 = 1.490304445 ParticularsTaka Quarter-1 Revenue ended 31 March,217,362,000,000 Quarter-2 Revenue ended 31 December, 207,474,000,000 Quarter-3 Revenue ended 30 September, 206,926,000,000 Quarter-4 Revenue ended 30 June, 206,506,000,000 Recent 4 Quarterly Total Sales28,268,000,000 Total Outstanding share446,112,090 Market Value Per share94.4335 Sales per Share63.36524079
In the same sense of price to book value ratio, price to sales ratio is easy to compute because information regarding the ratio is easily available. Investors and analysts find this valuation method simple and use it for relative comparison. Limitations Limitations of the method price to sales ratio are also noticeable. Comparison between different industries are very complicated with this valuation method. The idea of revenue recognition is also vague. Credit sales can inflate the price to sales ratio as well. This ratio only focuses on sales items and completely avoid the cost structure of a particular company. 23
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3.6Critical analysis of the difference between calculated price and market price of Beximco Pharma stock We have calculated the current stock price of Beximco pharmaceuticals by using a Constant dividend growth model. The current and calculated stock price of the firm is shown below; ParticularsPrice Current Stock Price176.60 (June 22, 2021) Calculated Stock Price120.60 Table 6: The current and calculated stock price ofBeximco Pharma Source:Investing.com From the above table, it can be seen that the current stock price of the firm differs from what we have calculated here. There can be various reasons behind the difference between these two prices. Broadly speaking, they can be divided into two types; Assumption of the model We have calculated the current stock price of Beximco pharmaceuticals by using a constant dividend growth model which is also known as the Gordon growth model. However, this model is not self-contained and it requires a lot of assumption to be substantive to provide an accurate result. 1.The main limitation of this model lies in its assumption of constant growth in dividends per share. It is very rare for companies like Beximco to show constant growth in their dividends due to the business cycles and unexpected financial difficulties or successes. But this model has forced us to stake at a constant dividend rate which is not quite rationale for a giant pharmaceutical company like Beximco. 2.Another issue occurs withthe relationship between the discount factor and the growth rate used in the model. This model cannot show the price of a share if the required rate of return is less than the growth rate of dividends per 24
share because in that case, the result will be a negative value, rendering the model worthless. Also, if the required rate of return is the same as the growth rate, the value per share approaches infinity. The reality is that for companies like Beximco, dividends grow over time and at some point, they may even exceed the cost of capital. So, we have to stick to a constant growth rate that is below the required rate of return while calculating the current price of the stock. This might be another big reason for the difference between calculated price and current market price. From the above discussion, it has become obvious that the model can be best applied only to those companies that have a constant dividend payment policy. But for company like Beximco, there is a high probability that the model will fail to provide accurate result. 3.Themodeldoesn’tconsidernon-dividendfactors.Therearemanynon- dividend factors like customer retention, intangible asset ownership, brand loyalty which can change the market price of the share. Many research studies found that non-financial information have a strong impact on the market price of a share. As per the study"Share valuation and corporate equity policy” conducted by Auerbach, a famous American financial analyst, non-financial information disclosure has a great impact on the share price. But While calculating the current price of the share, we only considered the financial information. This might be one of the reasons for the difference between our calculated price and market price of Beximco’s stock 4.The model is very sensitive to the quality of information involved. The model’s success or failure depends on the inputs provided to it. When information is accurate,thevaluationmaybeaccurate.Whenassumptionsusedby investors are mostly accurate, they will find the model to be working properly. But as all the data of this study have been collected from the secondary sources, we are not fully sure about the validity and reliability of these data. For this reason, the model might fail to give us accurate share price of our selected company. Our Limitation In addition to the assumption of dividend growth model, the difference might also appear for our own limitations. Some of them are going to be addressed below; 25
1.Lack of available and reliable data– It is said that a lack of data or of reliable data will likely require to limit the scope of analysis or it can be a significant obstacle in finding a trend and a meaningful relationship. While goingthroughthedifferentsecondarysources,wehavefoundsome inconsistency. For example, for a single date, we have found different market price in different sources in some cases. That surely raises the question of validity of the secondary data. Again, for the current pandemic situation, it was not possible for us to collect all the data directly from the company. This lack of validity and reliability of data might be one of the biggest reasons behind the difference between the calculated and current market price of share. 2.Lack of prior research experience on the topic: Mark Mahaney, a famous investment analyst said “having prior research experience forms the basis of yourliteraturereviewandhelpslayafoundationforunderstandingthe research problem you are investigating” Since we are new to the practical valuation of stock, we cannot totally ignore our lack of experience. Hence, the difference could also come from our lacking in the relevant work experience. . 26
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Chapter Four: Conclusion This study has been insightful as to exactly what processes, information a person mayneedtoevaluatestockandcompanyaswellasunderstandthemarket conditions. Choosing the appropriate dataset for components of the methods based on which calculations are done is not as simple as being knowledgeable about what information is required. This study has also given us perspective about the reasons why calculation and actual market data differ. We must note that the historical dataset-based assumption of prospect does not fully reflect the difference. There are far more long historical data available that make the market data or professionals calculation closer to accuracy. We have tried to use as justified data as we could from our position and limitations. As discussed in the report the importance of valuation and hence understanding a company's asset worth from different views and methods is definite. And so, despite the limitations of the report, it is of value to us as student of finance major and potential investors. 27
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Dayala, R., 2012. The capital asset pricing model: A fundamental critique. Business Valuation Review, 31(1), pp.23-34. Gitman, C.J.Z., Principles of Managerial Finance Brief 7th Edition Solutions Manual by Gitman Zutter. Haque, M., 2015. Financial analysis on Beximco Pharmaceuticals Limited. Investopedia.2021.CapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM).[online]Availableat: <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capm.asp#:~:text=The%20Capital%20Asset %20Pricing%20Model%20(CAPM)%20describes%20the%20relationship %20between,assets%20and%20cost%20of%20capital.> [Accessed 24 June 2021]. Margaritis, D. and Psillaki, M., 2010. Capital structure, equity ownership and firm performance. Rahman, M.A. and Saha, B., 2015. An assessment to identify causes of ERP implementationfailureandtopredictitssuccess:AcasestudyonBeximco pharmaceuticals limited. Journal of Business and Technical Progress, 4(2). Simply Wall St. 2021. Beximco Pharmaceuticals (DSE:BXPHARMA) - Share price, News&Analysis-SimplyWallSt.[online]Availableat: <https://simplywall.st/stocks/bd/pharmaceuticals-biotech/dse-bxpharma/beximco- pharmaceuticals-shares> [Accessed 24 June 2021]. WallStreetMojo.2021.CAPMBETA.[online]Availableat: <https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/capm-beta-definition-formula-calculate-beta-in- excel/> [Accessed 24 June 2021] 29
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Appendix ASSETSJune 30, 2020 Non-Current Assets53,098,713,225 Property, Plant and Equipment- Carrying Value33,244,656,330 Right-of-use Assets237,100,169 Intangible Assets580,960,330 Investment in Subsidiaries2,145,185,900 Investment in Associates29,325,720 Other Investments3,751,551 Current Assets12,438,793,173 Inventories5,528,438,165 Spares & Supplies735,703,950 Accounts Receivable3,213,666,345 Cash and Cash Equivalents615,944,841 Loans, Advances and Deposits2,345,039,872 TOTAL ASSETS65,537,506,398 EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Shareholders’ Equity49,214,092,360 Issued Share Capital20,913,297,675 Share Premium5,269,474,690 Excess of Issue Price over Face Value of GDRs1,689,636,958 Capital Reserve on Merger294,950,950 Revaluation Surplus1,125,767,451 30
Unrealized Gain/(Loss)926,375 Retained Earnings19,920,038,261 Non-Current Liabilities5,692,973,418 Long Term Borrowings-Net of Current Maturity1,641,924,046 Liability for Gratuity and WPPF & Welfare Funds2,015,304,583 Deferred Tax Liability2,035,744,789 Current Liabilities and Provisions10,630,440,620 Short Term Borrowings6,987,530,622 Long Term Borrowings-Current Maturity1,421,497,401 Creditors and Other Payables1,332,058,976 Accrued Expenses609,401,272 Dividend Payable16,803,657 Income Tax Payable263,148,692 TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES65,537,506,398 31