Question 3. (2 POINTS) Does the following argument involve a fallacy? If you
think it does not, pick (d) below. If you think it does, which of (a), (b) or (c) might
reasonably be construed as the fallacy in this argument?
There are several theories of cyclical time in the literature. Consider this one: ‘The
cyclical theory of time claims that each particular state of the universe will, after an
enormously long, though finite period of time, occur in exactly the same way in which it
has already occurred an infinite number of times in the past. [...] In other words, cosmic
history may be regarded as an infinite series of identical cycles: what is happening now
has happened already an infinite number of times in the past and will happen again an
infinite number of times in the future.’1
Is there any reason to believe that this theory is false? Probably not. To begin with,
its truth is logically possible. Secondly, no evidence can be adduced against this theory:
because the cycles are enormously long we have no hope to survive till the next cycle so
that we might check whether it is identical to ours or not. These considerations lead one
to believe that the theory is true.
(a) denying the antecedent
(b) circularity
(c) appeal to ignorance
 (d)no fallacy – no evidence is can be provided against this theory because the
cycles are very large and this theory can be logically true.
1 Milic Capek, ‘The Theory of Eternal Recurrence in Modern Philosophy of Science, with Special
Reference to C. S. Peirce’, The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 57, No. 9 (Apr. 28, 1960), pp. 289-296. The
quote is from p.289.
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