Financial Analysis: Key Factors, Valuation, and Risks in Business Strategies

In this document we will discuss about Financial Analysis and below are the summary points of this document:- Introduction, base case valuation, and business strategies are discussed in the financial analysis. Sales revenue and product analysis are examined, along with key risks identified. The analysis includes factors, free cash flow valuation, and a comparison of share prices, among other aspects.

Running head: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Finance
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Table of Contents
Introduction......................................................................................................................................2
Base Case Valuation........................................................................................................................2
Business Strategies......................................................................................................................2
Sales Revenue and Product Analysis...........................................................................................3
Key Risks Identified....................................................................................................................5
Financial Analysis.......................................................................................................................6
Key Factors..................................................................................................................................7
Free Cash Flow Valuation...........................................................................................................9
Comparison of Share Price........................................................................................................11
Assumption and Analysis..........................................................................................................12
Specific Scenario Valuation..........................................................................................................13
Technological Change...............................................................................................................13
Liquidity Position......................................................................................................................13
Third Scenario Valuation...............................................................................................................14
Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................15
References......................................................................................................................................16
Appendix........................................................................................................................................19
1) Forecasted Growth Factors of the McPherson’s Ltd..........................................................19
2) Forecasted Balance Sheet of McPherson’s Ltd Company..................................................19

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3) Forecasted Income Statement of the McPherson Ltd.........................................................20
4) Free Cash Flow for McPherson Ltd....................................................................................20
5) Valuation Factors for FCFE Models...................................................................................21
6) Additional and Key Inputs of FCFE Model.......................................................................21
7) Competitor Review for McPherson’s Ltd Company..........................................................22
8) Multix Growth and History (Grocery Division of McPhersons Ltd).................................22
9) Export Channel Model of McPherson Ltd Company.........................................................23
10) Liquidity and Profitability Position of McPherson Ltd..................................................23

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Introduction
McPherson Ltd Company is a dynamic consumer product company that is primarily
involved in the marketing and distributing of various health and beauty products throughout the
Asia Pacific, UK/Europe and North America (2018 Full Year Result, 2018). The expertise of the
company lies in managing various complex and wide range of products and services that the
consumers use in everyday lives. The company has a wide range of products in the overall
portfolio of the company that it caters. Products including kitchen households, large appliances
and several accessories are some of the key product portfolios of the company. The company is
listed in the Australian Stock Exchange with the ticker symbol “MCP” with a market cap of
around 117.76 million and its current share price to be around $1.13. The operations of the
company is distributed globally in Australia, New Zealand, South East Asia and United
Kingdom. The key competitors of the company include Pental Ltd (ASX: PTL) and Asaleo Care
Ltd (ASX: AHY). The financial analysis of the company was done with the view and approach
of the current operating scenario of the company where several business factors and macro-
economic conditions of the company were taken into account for the purpose of analysis of the
company. The report will be considering the valuation of the McPherson limited company as the
base for the assessing and evaluating the growth strategies that are deployed by the management
of the company.
Base Case Valuation
Business Strategies
McPherson Company has always had a wide range and variety of products and services
in the product portfolio of the company that has helped them garner better market share in

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Australia and globally (2018 Full Year Result, 2018). The increasing awareness and the
acceptance of the various products and services of the company has led the company to increase
both the domestic and the global revenue for the company (McPherson's Ltd. - Company Profile,
Information, Business Description, History, Background Information on McPherson's Ltd,
2018). In the year 2018 the company observed a 41% increase in the skincare brand products,
pharmacy products and through other export channel (McPherson's Limited, 2019). McPherson
has always strategized to increase the revenue base of the company both in the domestic and on a
global basis. The same can be seen where the McPherson Company’s management has focused
on increasing the global revenue of the company as the acceptance and the brand value should be
diversified.
Figure 1: Revenue Base of McPherson’s Ltd Company
(Source: 2018 Full Year Result, 2018)

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Sales Revenue and Product Analysis
The sales revenue from the operations of the company increased by about 4%, where the
grocery brand Multix saw a major and a steady growth rate of about 11% (McPherson's Limited,
2019). The demand and the revenue growth rate of the health and beauty product division has
significantly contributed to the overall revenue of the company. The household essential saw an
increase of about 6% from the year 2017 to 2018 and on the other hand, the revenue base for the
beauty product division witnessed a major increase by 56% (McPherson's Limited, 2019). Both
the above product divisions of the company have been contributing significantly to the overall
revenue of the company. The higher profitability margin from the above division has encouraged
the management of the company focus on the growth ideas and expanding the above divisions
(Kallala et al. 2015). The same has been incorporated into the valuation assumption for
forecasting the free cash flow for the company where it is expected that on an average the
revenue of the company will be growing by about 4%. The focus of the company is on high
profit margin products and services thereby bringing operational efficiency in the business.
Through, optimum utilisation of the resources in the form of reduced cost of sales for the
company has been the key reason for constant growth rate in the profitability of the company.
Figure 2: Sales Revenue Comparison of McPherson Ltd

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(Source: 2018 Full Year Result, 2018)
The underlying profits earned before tax for the company increased by about 17.3% to
about $19 million in the year 2018 through increase in contribution from owned brands and cost
reduction and positive cash inflows from Forex hedge done by the company. The interest
reduction by about $1.9 million was also a major contributor in the year 2018. The sales from the
private label fell down by around 2% from the financial year 2017 to 2018 and the costs involved
in the operations of the business were also increasing. The management of the company were
taking various initiatives in order to curb or reduce the capital investment in the division by
investing more into higher profit margin and growing business divisions of the company. If we
see the contribution made by the private label in the profitability of the company the same also
decreased by about 0.4 million in the financial year 2017-18.

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Figure 3: Underlying Profit Tax of Financial Year 2017-18
(Source: 2018 Full Year Result, 2018)
Key Risks Identified
The key risks identified for the company were the business risk and the financial risk,
which were well tackled by the management of the company through the application of various
strategies. Business risks of McPherson’s were in the form of volatile revenue from the various
brands and product portfolio of the company. The financial risk of the company is generally in
the form of high leverage or debt but the company has tackled and managed the same by
reducing the debt from the financials of the company in the year 2018. Almost, 73% reduction in
the debt of the company was observed where the net debt pf the company was around $9.8
million.

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Figure 3: Trading Environment of McPherson’s Ltd Company
(Source: 2018 Full Year Result, 2018)
Financial Analysis
The valuation of the company is done based on the assumption that the operational
activity of the company is expected to be sustainable in the defined trend period of analysis. The
trend or the growth rate of the various key factors of the company are taken into consideration
for the purpose of the analysis of the company. The analysis of the company was done after
taking the growth rate of the revenue of the company, the expense of the company and various

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accounting factors for the company to get the forecasted financials of the company. Forecasting
the financials of the company includes various trends and factors that should be taken into
consolidation so that the financial performance of the company reflect well and potential risk and
reflects the current and business economic scenario of the company where the operations of the
company is based (MarketScreener, 2019).
Key Factors
Revenue Growth Rate: The growth rate in the revenue for the company was taken to be at a
constant rate of around 4% for the company, which is expected to be in line with the operations
of the company. The company has introduced several products whereby the company has in the
past observed a growth rate of around 4%. The same has been taken into assumption by
forecasting the revenue growth of the company and the financials of the company on the same
basis has been taken into consideration for preparing the financials of the company (Susan
McPherson — MCPHERSON STRATEGIES, 2018). The health & beauty product division and
the grocery business have significantly contributed in the overall revenue of the company and the
same is expected to continue which has been taken into consideration while forecasting the
revenue growth of the company.

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Figure 4: Grocery and Pharmacy division of McPherson’s Ltd Company
(Source: 2018 Full Year Result, 2018)
Operating Cost Margins: The operating cost margins for the company is assumed to be around
89% for the company in the financials of the company. The operating cost for the company is
expected to be sustainable and is sound that will make the financial operations of the company
more sustainable.
Depreciation: Depreciation rate on the other hand will be charged under the fixed assets of the
company. The depreciation rate for the company will be around 3% for the total fixed assets of
the company.
Interest Rates: The interest rate for the company will be applicable as per the applicable interest
rate on the debt balance of the company. The interest rate on the debt of the company will be
around 22% which is a significant amount affecting the profitability of the company.
Pay-out Ratio: The pay-out ratio for the company will be around 77% of the total earnings of
the company and the same has been taken into assumption by taking the historical pay-out ratio
of the company.
Debt/Equity Ratio: The debt to equity ratio for the company is expected to increase for the
company in the forecasted financials of the company where the debt for the company is expected
to increase for the company, which in turn would increase the leverage and financial risk of the
company.

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Free Cash Flow Valuation
The free cash flow valuation for the company will be done based on the earnings of the
company and the forecasted valuation for the company. The free cash flow for equity was
determined with the help of the formula given below:
FCFF: Earnings before Tax+ Depreciation + Amortisation - Change in WACC- Capital
Expenditure.
The financials for the McPherson Ltd Company was forecasted from the year 2019-2023
by taking 2018 as the base year for the company and taking the relevant cash flows of the
company into consideration for the purpose of the valuation of the company (CapitalCube,
2019). The free cash flows for the company is expected to grow as the projected net income
grows for the company in the forecasted trend period of the company. It is crucial to note that
while valuing the company or the forecasted share price of the company based on the forecasted
growth rate of the company there are several factors and conditions, which needs to be taken into
consideration for the purpose of the valuation of the company. The free cash flow for the
company is expected to grow for the company with the increasing revenue base of the company.
The valuation and the analysis of the company needs to be done while analysing the
estimated share price of the company with the current share price of the company. While
evaluating the estimated free cash flow and the equity value/share price of the company there are
two important factors that should be taken into consideration that is the required rate of return on
equity and the growth rate of the company.
Equity Hurdle Rate: The hurdle rate for the equity shows the minimum required return by the
shareholders of the company which was calculated with the formula:

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Required Rate of Return on Equity: Risk Free Rate of Return+ Beta*(Return on Market- Risk
Free Rate of Return).
The hurdle rate or the required rate of return is set to be changing for the company with
the changing business conditions and the financial position of the company. The market risk
premium was taken at 6% and the risk free rate of return was taken at 2.5%. The risk free rate of
return and the return on market are said to be constant for the company but the levered beta for
the company is expected to change for the company. The changing beta of the company will be
the key reason for the changing required return on equity. The required rate of return for the
company was determined to be around 13% for the first two years and 14% for the next three
years.
Cash Flows: The valuation analysis done for the company will be the key input in estimating the
market value of McPherson Ltd Company. The cash flows received from the company will be
discounted with the equity hurdle rate. Terminal Value of the company in forecasting the free
cash flow of the company is a key factor as the same includes key factors like continuous growth
function of the company and the discounted amount of the continuous cash flows that is expected
to be received by the company. The cash flow of the company is expected to be increasing for
the company. The profitability of the company is expected to increase for the company with the
growing revenue base of the company and the reducing cost of the company in contrast to the
increasing revenue base of the company.
The market value of equity was determined to be around 113 million and the issued shares for
the company was around 105.1 million. The levered beta of the company was taken to be at 1.86
times and the terminal value of the company was determined with the help of the formula

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Terminal Value: FCFE (5)* (1+Growth Rate)/ (Required Rate of Return- Growth Rate).
Comparison of Share Price
The share price of the company was determined to be around $1.07, which was evaluated
with the free cash flow model where the assumptions for revenue and various other factors for
the company were taken into account for the purpose of the valuation of the company’s share
price. The current share price of the company is $ 1.14, which is slightly overvalued as analysed
from the free cash flow model for the firm. However, it is crucial to note that the valuation of the
company is also affected from other key factors that directly affects and influences the operations
and the valuation of the share price of the company.
Figure 4: Share Price of McPherson’s Ltd Company

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(Source: 2018 Full Year Result, 2018)
Assumption and Analysis
The growth rate in the revenue of the company was taken at 4% and the operating cost of
margin for the company is expected to be around 89%. However, certain other factors needs to
be taken into consideration such as loss of the key employees of the company and the effect on
the share price of the company. The CEO of the company has been the key personnel from the
management side of the company; if he would leave the company then the share price of the
company would be affected as the company’s operations may be disrupted in relation to the
guidance and strategies of the management (Robinson et al. 2015). Economic recession on the
other hand side is not good for a business, the same can significantly influence the revenue base,
and the profitability of the company and in the context of the same a moderate and a sustainable
growth rate of about 3% has been taken into assumption while valuing the share price of the
company.
Figure 4: Key Executives of McPherson Ltd
(Source: Key Executives of McPherson Ltd, 2019)

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Specific Scenario Valuation
External factors like currency collapse, political problem, and bad affect from MCP’
suppliers, new entrants in markets with sever competition; invention of new technology can
significantly the level of sales in the company (Business Growth Strategies, 2018).
Technological Change
McPherson Ltd Company spends almost a considerable amount of money in the research
and development for bring new technology and ideas, which can potentially bring efficiency in
the level of operations of the company (Williams & Dobelman, 2017). Proper monitoring and
allocation of resources for the varied operations of the company has been the key reason for the
company for bringing about efficiency in the business of the company (Vogel, 2016). However,
it is forecasted that the company will be increasing the efficiency of the company by reducing the
costs associated with the sales of the company. The changes in the key financial drivers and the
impact of the same with the growing revenue and efficiency of the company in the form of
technological changes was well taken into account while valuing the share price of the company.
The payout ratio for the company is expected to stable around 77%. However, it is important
that the strategies and factors taken into consideration helps the company in increasing the
valuation of the company (Corbet et al. 2018).
Liquidity Position
A sound liquidity position is important for the operations of the company so that the
company is well able to pay off the current liabilities of the company. The liquidity position for

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the company is expected to improve to remain at 2.11 times, which is a healthy ratio where the
company can well manage the current liabilities of the company (FT.com, 2018).
The above strategies would take place and can bring sound returns to the shareholders of
the company in the form of increasing profitability of the company.
Third Scenario Valuation
The valuation of McPherson Limited Company would also be affected from the change
in the climatic condition, which in turn can affect the operations, and the revenue forecast for the
company in the possible two scenarios (CHAIRMAN’S ADDRESS, 2018).
Figure 5: Growth Strategy of McPherson Ltd Company
(Source: Key Executives of McPherson Ltd, 2019)
The increase in temperature of the environment where the operations of the company is
based can increase the product revenue of some of the health and beauty products which are
effective when the climate. On the other hand, the negative impacts for the rise in the
temperature in the environment is much more severe affecting the storage cost, product life and

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the value of the goods and services offered by the company. In the summer time the average
temperature observed is around 23 degree Celsius on the other hand, the temperature observed in
the wintertime is around 13 degree Celsius. The rise in the storage cost and decrease in the
product life of the company will ultimately affect the profitability of the company in terms of
rising operational costs. It is essential for the company to implement various strategies and
consider various factors for the purpose of the valuation and forecasting the earnings of the
company as the same may create a direct influence on the operations of the company.
Conclusion
The financial analysis of the McPherson Company was done by applying the free cash
flow model for determining the intrinsic valuation of the share price of the company. Several
assumptions and factors like the business environment and the changing macro-economic
conditions that would be affecting the value of the share price of the company were taken into
consideration. The changing business conditions and the possible growth opportunities were
taken into consideration for the evaluation of the share price of the company. The intrinsic
valuation of the share price was slightly lower than the actual market share price of the company.
The changing technological factors and the implications of the same on the financials of the
company and the growth scenario of the company were taken into account for the analysis of the
company. The changing climatic conditions and the impact of the same on the operations and the
financials of the company were taken into account while valuing the company. On an overall
basis, the growth rate of the revenue and the profitability of the company is assessed to be
positive for the company with the increasing business opportunity and the operational efficiency
in the business.

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References
2018 Full Year Result. (2018). Retrieved from
https://www.mcphersons.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/FY18%20Results
%20Release%20Presentation_0.pdf
Business Growth Strategies. (2018). Retrieved from
https://www.mcphersons.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/20170531%20-%20MCP
%20Strategy%20Presentation.pdf
CHAIRMAN’S ADDRESS. (2018). Retrieved from
https://www.mcphersons.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/20171121%20-
%20Chairmans%20Address.pdf
Corbet, S., Lucey, B., Urquhart, A., & Yarovaya, L. (2018). Cryptocurrencies as a financial
asset: A systematic analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis.
Kallala, R. F., Vanhegan, I. S., Ibrahim, M. S., Sarmah, S., & Haddad, F. S. (2015). Financial
analysis of revision knee surgery based on NHS tariffs and hospital costs: does it pay to
provide a revision service?. The bone & joint journal, 97(2), 197-201.
Key Executives of McPherson Ltd. (2019). Retrieved from
https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/people.asp?privcapId=4261293
McPherson’s Ltd. :MCP-AU: Earnings Analysis: 2017 By the Numbers : August 24, 2017 –
CapitalCube. (2019). Retrieved from
http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/mcphersons-ltd-mcp-au-earnings-analysis-
2017-by-the-numbers-august-24-2017/

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McPherson's Limited. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.ibisworld.com.au/australian-
company-research-reports/wholesale-trade/mcphersons-limited-company.html
MCPHERSON'S LTD : Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations | MCP |
AU000000MCP2 | MarketScreener. (2019). Retrieved from
https://www.marketscreener.com/MCPHERSON-S-LTD-6492277/financials/
McPherson's Ltd, MCP:ASX forecasts - FT.com. (2018). Retrieved from
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=MCP:ASX
McPherson's Ltd. - Company Profile, Information, Business Description, History, Background
Information on McPherson's Ltd. (2018). Retrieved from
https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/history2/12/McPherson-s-Ltd.html
Robinson, T. R., Henry, E., Pirie, W. L., & Broihahn, M. A. (2015). International financial
statement analysis. John Wiley & Sons.
Susan McPherson — MCPHERSON STRATEGIES. (2018). Retrieved from
http://www.mcpstrategies.com/susanmcpherson
Vogel, H. L. (2016). Travel industry economics: a guide for financial analysis. Springer.
Williams, E. E., & Dobelman, J. A. (2017). Financial statement analysis. World Scientific Book
Chapters, 109-169.

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Appendix
1) Forecasted Growth Factors of the McPherson’s Ltd.
Drivers 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Revenue growth 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Op cost margin 89% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%
Depreciation rate 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Interest rate 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Payout ratio 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77%
CA/revenue 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
CL/revenue 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Revenue/net NCA 269% 269% 269% 269% 269% 269%
Other liabilities/assets 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Tax rate 33% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Debt/equity 20% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26%
2) Forecasted Balance Sheet of McPherson’s Ltd Company.
Balance Sheet
Current assets 80.40 83.62 86.96 90.44 94.06 97.82
Gross non-current assets 107.30 112.72 118.36 124.22 130.32 136.66
Less Acc. depreciation 29.00 31.29 33.67 36.14 38.72 41.39
Net non-current assets 78.30 81.43 84.69 88.08 91.60 95.26
Total assets 158.70 165.05 171.65 178.52 185.66 193.08
Current liability (ex debt) 38.10 39.62 41.21 42.86 44.57 46.35
Debt 18.45 20.11 21.84 23.63 25.50 27.44
Other liabilities 12.05 12.53 13.03 13.55 14.10 14.66
Total liabilities 68.60 72.27 76.08 80.04 84.17 88.46
Equity 90.10 92.78 95.57 98.47 101.49 104.63

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3) Forecasted Income Statement of the McPherson Ltd
Profit and Loss Statement
Revenue 210.40 218.82 227.57 236.67 246.14 255.98
Operating costs 187.20 194.69 202.48 210.57 219.00 227.76
EBITDA 23.20 24.13 25.09 26.10 27.14 28.23
Depreciation, amortization 2.20 2.29 2.38 2.47 2.57 2.68
EBIT 21.00 21.84 22.71 23.62 24.57 25.55
Interest costs 4.00 4.36 4.73 5.12 5.53 5.95
NPBT 17.00 16.80 17.47 18.17 18.90 19.65
Taxes 5.60 5.04 5.24 5.45 5.67 5.90
NPAT 11.40 11.76 12.23 12.72 13.23 13.76
Dividends 8.80 9.08 9.44 9.82 10.21 10.62
Retained earnings 2.60 2.68 2.79 2.90 3.02 3.14
4) Free Cash Flow for McPherson Ltd
Free Cash Flow
EBIT (1 - tax rate) 15.29 15.90 16.54 17.20 17.88
Depreciation, amortization 2.29 2.38 2.47 2.57 2.68
Change in working capital -1.21 -1.26 -1.31 -1.36 -1.42
Capital expenditures -5.42 -5.64 -5.86 -6.10 -6.34
Free cash flow for investors FCFF 10.95 11.38 11.84 12.31 12.81
Interest (1- tax rate) -3.05 -3.31 -3.59 -3.87 -4.16
Change in debt 1.66 1.73 1.80 1.87 1.94
Free cash flow for owners FCFE 9.55 9.80 10.05 10.31 10.58

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5) Valuation Factors for FCFE Models
Levered beta 1.86 1.87 1.89 1.90 1.91
Unlevered beta 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61
Debt/equity 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26
Equity hurdle rate 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14
Cash flow plus terminal value 9.55 9.80 10.05 10.31 107.70
Present value 8.43 7.62 6.88 6.22 83.41
Return on assets 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Retention rate 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Equity/assets 57% 56% 56% 55% 55% 54%
SGR 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
6) Additional and Key Inputs of FCFE Model.
Additional inputs
Growth from year 5 2.5%
Shares on issue now 105.1
Levered beta 1.86
Government bond 2.2%
Risk premium 6.0%
Market Value of Equity 113
Share Price 1.07
Terminal value 97
P/E ratio 8.5

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7) Competitor Review for McPherson’s Ltd Company.
Company
Revenue
(TTM)
Net income
(TTM)
Market
cap
Employee
s
Crossfor Co Ltd 50.62m 2.71m 63.32m 90
Poh Kong Holdings Bhd 358.90m 7.31m 69.33m 1.20k
Sincere Watch (Hong Kong) Ltd 81.16m -13.17m 73.80m 173
Tse Sui Luen Jewelry (Intl) Ltd. 774.63m 10.09m 82.57m 3.10k
Estelle Holdings Co Ltd 412.96m 7.01m 98.08m 2.73k
Prime view Holdings Ltd 30.26m -24.16m 99.32m 27
KDDL Ltd 123.92m 5.23m 102.12m 1.10k
Ernest Boral Holdings Ltd 38.33m -28.52m 108.56m 316
Jubilee Enterprise PCL 69.06m 8.53m 115.83m 290
Renaissance Jewelry Limited 471.12m 16.08m 116.53m 3.50k
McPherson's Ltd 210.91m 10.81m 119.33m 876
Continental Holdings Ltd 77.42m 51.29m 131.26m 660
RHYTHM WATCH CO., LTD. 393.00m 7.67m 168.96m 3.07k
8) Multix Growth and History (Grocery Division of McPhersons Ltd)

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9) Export Channel Model of McPherson Ltd Company
10)Liquidity and Profitability Position of McPherson Ltd
Liquidity Position 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Current Assets 80.40 83.62 86.96 90.44 94.06 97.82
Current Liability 38.10 39.62 41.21 42.86 44.57 46.35
Current Ratio
2.11023
6
2.11023
6
2.11023
6 2.11023622
2.1102362
2
2.11023
6
Profitability Position 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net Profit 11.40 11.76 12.23 12.72 13.23 13.76
Shareholder's Equity 90.10 92.78 95.57 98.47 101.49 104.63
Return on Shareholder's
Equity 12.65% 12.67% 12.80% 12.92% 13.03% 13.15%