This report analyzes the financial performance and share price movement of The Reject Shop, an Australian listed company. It includes a valuation exercise, beta calculation, cost of capital computation, dividend growth model, and share price valuation. The report also discusses the core activities, competitive advantage, and industry of the company.
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Financial analysis of The Reject Shop COmpany Selected- The Reject Shop [Type the company address] [Type the phone number] [Type the fax number] U n i v e r s iN a m e -
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Executive Summary Financial analysis is imperative method to identify the whether the particular stock and shares of the company will be beneficial for creating value on the invested capital or not. Investors need to use proper financial analysis tools to evaluate the share price movement, profitability and financial leverage of company if they want to invest their capital in a particular company. It will not only assist them to identify financial performance of company but on the basis of the existing financial information they could easily identify the future performance and outcome of the business in long run.The Reject Shop Australian listed company has been selected in this report to analysis the financial performance and share price movement.
Table of Contents Introduction.................................................................................................................................................4 Core activities of the Reject Shop............................................................................................................4 Competitive advantage............................................................................................................................5 Industry...................................................................................................................................................5 Financial analysis of The Reject Shop.........................................................................................................5 Task-1..........................................................................................................................................................5 Task-2..........................................................................................................................................................5 Computation of the beta based on the regression analysis on the share price of the Reject Shop Company and all ordinary stock exchange..............................................................................................6 Comparison of the beta Reject Shop Company with the beta shown on the Morning start for the Reject shop Company.........................................................................................................................................8 Are these value differ if yes then why?....................................................................................................8 Task-3..........................................................................................................................................................9 Computation of the appropriate discount rate for the Reject Shop by using the CAPM model...................9 Computation of the discount factor for the cash flow of the Reject Shop Company................................9 Task-4........................................................................................................................................................10 Determine a current stock price for your company................................................................................10 Computation of the dividend growth rate of Reject Shop......................................................................11 Task-5........................................................................................................................................................12 Using your own variables, determine a current stock price for the company that you think might represent something close to its fair value.............................................................................................12 Task-6........................................................................................................................................................14 Why do you believe the variables you have chosen give a more appropriate value than those used in questions 4 and 5? Discuss....................................................................................................................15 Task-7........................................................................................................................................................16 Method of comparable’stock valuation approach................................................................................16 Recommendation.......................................................................................................................................17 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................................19 References.................................................................................................................................................20
Introduction This report has been prepared to undertake a valuation exercise on the selected company named The Reject Shop which could be used by investors to make their investment decisions. This report has revealed the share price valuation and beta calculation of company to determine the viability of the financial performance and share price movement of company. This analysis will help in determining the future financial performance of company. In the beginning of this report valuation model have been used with a view to identify the estimate share value of company. This will help in calculation of the share price for the company and then the critically evaluate the value assist in determining the future value and return on capital employed earned by company. The CAPM model is also used which will assist in determining the cost of the capital of the company based on the risk free rate of return, market premium and beta of company. The dividend growth model is also measure financial tool to determine the constant changes in the share price value of company and estimation of the future value. Furthermore, the share price valuation will again be made on the basis of own assumption and set factors which might positive and negatively impact the business growth and share valuation of company (The Reject Shop, (207). The Reject Shop is one of the best Australia variety discount store chains that have been offering retail services and goods to clients. This company has been operating its business through its 340 variety stores chain services. It has been analyzed that company has increased its share price by 62% since last three years which showcase the positive indicator for the future growth and sustainable future growth of the business. Company who have currently undertaken the proposal of business integration with other small organizations so that company could be expanded in long run. The overall turnover of the Reject Shop Company has increased by 22% since last five year and it has hold AUD $ 82 million of sales to its customers from its all the operations (The Reject Shop, 2016). Core activities of the Reject Shop The core activities of Company are to offer retail series through its variety discount store chains at very least cost.
Competitive advantage The competitive advantage of company is to offer retail services at very least cost with the unique quality and products (The Reject Shop, (2017). Industry The retail industry of Australia has increased its turnover 112 billion and out of it, the reject shop company has grabbed 13% market share. The rest of the market is grabbed by the Wesfarmers, Woolworths, Telstra and Morrison plc (The Reject Shop, (2016). Financial analysis of The Reject Shop The financial analysis of company is done to identify whether the company is financially healthy or facing high long term sustainability risk in its business. The ratio analysis as financial tool has been used to evaluate how well the Reject Shop Company has performed throughout the time (The Reject Shop, 2016). Task-1 In order to prepare the business financial report, the selected company is The Reject shop. All the financial analysis and valuation methods have been used to identify the true value of the shares, growth rate and financial performance of company (Yahoo finance, 2017). Task-2 Computation of the beta of the Reject Shop Company Beta could be defined as measurement tool to evaluate the volatility or systematic risk of the security selected and the same would be compared with the market changing factors. The beta value of company showcase the changes in the share price of the company based on the changes in the share value of the market factors. It shows the interrelation between the changes in the share price movement of the company with the changes in the share price of the market. The beta value of company is computed by using the regression analysis on the share price of the Reject
Shop company and all ordinary stock exchanges. These both share price value is used to make the computation of the beta (Yahoo finance, 2017). 1/1/2016 3/1/2016 5/1/2016 7/1/2016 9/1/2016 11/1/2016 1/1/2017 3/1/2017 5/1/2017 7/1/2017 9/1/2017 11/1/2017 (0.60) (0.50) (0.40) (0.30) (0.20) (0.10) - 0.10 0.20 0.30 The Reject Shop Adj Close (All ordinary share index) Source:(The Reject Shop, 2016). This graph showcases the changes in the share price of the Reject Shop Company in comparison with the changes in the share price movement of the all ordinary index (The Reject Shop, (2016). On the basis of the above graph, it is considered that the Reject shop has very high fluctuation in its share price movement which may negatively impact the investment capital. The share price of the Reject shop company will be compute by using the divided discount model which will be further used to determine whether the shares of the company are undervalued or overvalued. Computation of the beta based on the regression analysis on the share price of the Reject Shop Company and all ordinary stock exchange Regression Statistics
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Multiple R0.13161 6 R Square0.01732 3 AdjustedR Square - 0.01543 Standard Error 0.01822 4 Observations32 The regression statistics shows the relation between theon the share price of the Reject Shop company and all ordinary stock exchange and the interrelation between both the factors (The Reject Shop, (2016). ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regressio n 10.00017 6 0.00017 6 0.52884 6 0.47273
Residual3 0 0.00996 3 0.00033 2 Total3 1 0.01013 9 The Anova is used to set up the measure the relation between the two significant factors (Yahoo finance, 2017). Coeffici ents Standard Error t StatP- value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercep t 0.009430.0032372.913 249 0.006 696 0.00281 9 0.016040.0028190.01604 X Variable 1 0.01674 7 0.0230290.727 218 0.472 73 - 0.03028 0.06377 9 -0.030280.063779 Source: (Yahoo finance, 2017). After analyzing the above given tables, and regression analysis between share price of the Reject Shop company and all ordinary stock exchange, the x variable have been found. The x variable is the beta point of the Reject shop which is computed based on the data related to share price of the Reject Shop Company and all ordinary stock exchange (The Reject Shop, (2016).
Comparison of the beta Reject Shop Company with the beta shown on the Morning start for the Reject shop Company All the details shown in the Morningstar is based on the several factors which may positively and negatively impact. As per details shown in the information tab of the yahoo finance, the beta of the Reject shop has been shown as 1.16 points (Yahoo finance, 2017). Are these value differ if yes then why? The computation of the beta of the Reject shop based on the regression analysis between share price of the Reject Shop Company and all ordinary stock exchanges shows .016 points beta. This means that if the share price of the all ordinary stock exchange moves with the 1 point then the share price value of the Reject Shop will move with .016 points. On the other hand, as details shown in the information tab of the Morningstar, the beta of the Reject shop has been shown as 1.16 point which reflects that the if the share price of the all ordinary stock exchange moves with the 1 point then the share price value of the Reject Shop will move with 1.16 points. The difference between the both calculations is differ due to the changing business factors, share price value and other estimations. Therefore, difference in changing business factors and assumptions may result to the differences between both (The Reject Shop, (2016). Task-3 Computation of the appropriate discount rate for the Reject Shop by using the CAPM model The CAPM model is also known as capital asset price model which is used to evaluate the cost of capital of company. The CAPM model considers the risk free rate of return, market premium and beta of company to compute the cost of equity (Yahoo finance, 2017). Cost of capital= RF+ (RM-RF) Beta It is analyzed that cost of capital is also used to determine the discounting factors for computing the present value of the future cash inflow.
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Ideally, CAPM model is used when company wants to accept the one project out of the available project. It is analyzed that computation of cost of capital is the measure factor to determine the discounting factor of all the future cash inflow and outflow so that company could determine present value of the cash flow in the business (Yahoo finance, 2017). Computation of the discount factor for the cash flow of the Reject Shop Company By using the formula given below, there is computation of the expected return is done. The expected return of company is used to determine the discounting rate of company. (Yahoo finance, 2017). Risk free rate of return= 2.69 (10 years yield rate of the Australian government securities) Market risk premium= (RF- RM) = 6.5% p.a Cost of capital of company= RF+(Rm-RF)Beta Cost of capital= 2.69+ (6.5%).016 (The Reject Shop, (2016). Cost of capital= 2.7
Therefore, the discount rate would be 2.7% at which company would determine the present value of the future inflow and outflow of cash (The Reject Shop, (2016). Task-4 Determine a current stock price for your company It is analyzed that in order to compute the current stock price of Reject shop, Dividend growth model is use. In order to compute the share price of company, firstly we have to use the cost of capital, dividend paid to the shareholders by the company and growth rate. In addition to this, if the growth rate is not given then the computation of the dividend growth would be based on the retention ratio and return on equity of company. There is formula which could be used to compute the share price value of shares of Reject Shop Value of the stock = D1/ KE-G Task-5 Using your own variables, determine a current stock price for the company that you think might represent something close to its fair value. The below given table reflects the estimation of the current stock price of the company at the end of the fifth year by using the constant dividend growth mode(The Reject Shop, (2016). Compute the Estimated Value of the stock at the end of year 2 using the Constant Growth Model D5$0.29 k2.70% g2.25% V2?$14.45 The share price of the Reject shop company will be AUD $ 66.35 which reflects that if the shareholders buy the shares of company at AUD 3.18 then after five years, then they would have good amount of profit earning capacity(The Reject Shop, (2016). Computation of the share price value of the Reject Shop(Yahoo finance, 2017).
Compute the Estimated Value of the stock at the end of year 5 using the Constant Growth Model D5$0.29 k2.70% g2.25% V2?$66.35 Compute the Present Value of all expected cash flows To find the price of the stock today. Dividend YearCash Flow D00.24 D10.2496 D20.259584 D30.269967 D40.280766 D50.291997 D60.298567 PV of dividend for first 5 years DividendPVF@2.7% D10.24960.973710.243038 D20.2595840.9481110.246114 D30.2699670.9231850.24923 D40.2807660.8989140.252385 D50.2919970.8752820.255579 Fair value of the share at the fifth year1.246346 (Yahoo finance, 2017). Terminal value at 6th year D60.298567 Ke-g0.0045 66.34814 PVF for 5th year0.875282 PV of terminal value58.0733 Fair value of share59.31965 (Yahoo finance, 2017).
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After implementing the dividend growth model for the determination of the share price value of the Reject shop Company, it is computed that the share price of company would be AUD $ 59.31 which is way too high as compared to its market value. However, the main reason of computation of the fair value of the shares showcases that all the shares of the company is undervalue and if these investors wants to create value on their capital then they should invest their capital in Reject Shop. The main reason of share undervaluation is based on the inflation rate and cost of capital of organization. Company has kept very low amount of cost of capital and inflation rate is way too low as compared to other industry factors. Due to the high variability of the share price, it may be difficult to say that the share price computed on the basis of the present factors and inflation rate reveals the true value of the shares sold in market. The crux of this calculation is that if the non-constant dividend growth model is followed then the share price of Reject Shop will result to high increment in the share value. It might lead to misleading of the data as inflation rate of the Australia consistently changes with the time. It is further observed that the constant dividend growth model reflects the share value only on the set estimated growth rate and cost of equity. Due to the changing industry and economic factors, it might not be possible that all the changing business factors remain constants. They all factors are interrelated and vary accordingly. If thedividend growth rate was only expected to apply for 5 years before reverting to a long-term growth rate consistent with the forecast inflation rate then the share value of the company will highly increase and result to AUD $ 59.23. It will cover all the possible benefits which investors would have from its investment. Computation of the dividend growth rate of Reject Shop Return on equity has been computed as above(The Reject Shop, 2016).
(Yahoo finance, 2017). ROE= 8.89% Retention ratio =90% Growth= 90%*8.8=7.04% (The Reject Shop, (2016). Growth rate would be= 7.04% (The Reject Shop, (2016). However, in this question, we have already given the growth rate so that the growth rate of the company has been set to 4% Therefore, in this case, the growth rate would be set to 4% Cost of capital = 2.7% (The same has been computed as above) Last year dividend is .24 Value of the stock = D1/ KE-G P1= .24/2.7%-4% AUD $ 18.64 The value of the stock would be AUD $ 18.64 which will reflects the future value of the share price of the Reject Shop. Task-6 There are several variables which might positively and negatively impact the share price movement of company such as profitability, industry growth rate, financial leverage, employee turnover and GDP rate of the Australia and overall turnover of the industry. If an investor wants to identify the true value of the shares offered in market then he needs to focus on all these factors and the same should be considered while computing the growth rate and equity rate of company. It is analysed that the computation of the cost of equity is very low which may be misleading factor while determining the true value of the shared offered in market. The cost of equity of company RF= 4%
Mr= 3% Beta= 1.16 Cost of equity= 4 %+( 4-3)1.16 Cost of equity= 5.16%(The Reject Shop, (2016). Therefore, as per the market factors, cost of the equity of Reject Shop Company would be 5.16% which is way too high as compared to the cost of equity shown in last computation. The same will also impact the share valuation of the company as per the dividend growth model Dividend growth model Growth rate= 4% Cost of equity= 5.16% D1=.24+4% D1=.28.4 (Yahoo finance, 2017). Share value of company= 28/5.16%-4%(The Reject Shop, (2016). The share value of company ideally should be 5.16 which showcases that company will surely increase its share price with the increase in its business. However, due to the sluggish market condition and other external factors, there might be chances that company may face high loss in their share (Robinson, and Burnett, 2016). After analysing all the factors, the crux of this report is that the newly adopted method as given by me would be the best one to determine the share price value of the company. If we go for the computation of the share price of company as per the dividend growth model then it might result to misleading data and may also negatively impact the business growth in long run (Radebaugh, Gray, and Black, 2016).
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Task-7 Method of comparable’stock valuation approach The method of comparable stock valuation approach is followed to determine the right and true value of the stocks.It is considered that if we go for the computation of the share price of company as per the dividend growth model then it might result to misleading data and may also negatively impact the business growth in long run. This could be seen by analysing the below given table (Penman, and Zhang, (2016). Terminal value at 6th year D60.298567 Ke-g0.0045 66.34814 PVF for 5th year0.875282 PV of terminal value58.0733 Fair value of share59.31965 (Yahoo finance, 2017). This table reflects the share price of the Reject shop company which has been computed on the basis of the last year financial data. It shows the fair value of company is set to AUD $ 59.31 which is not feasible amount and may mislead the investors to determine the true value of the company in future (Phillips, Pincus, and Rego, (2013). I have used another method of computing the share price of Company i.e. D1=.24+4% D1=.28.4 Share value of company= 28/5.16%-4% AUD $ 5.16 (Yahoo finance, 2017). This shows that Reject Shop will surely have profit in its earning and will have positive value in its business (Rossi, 2015).
The stock Method of comparable’ stock valuation approach will be useful to determine which method would be more beneficial for determining the right share value. It will not only assist in determining all the changing factors but also help investors to determine whether the investing capital in Reject shop would be beneficial for the long run or not (Robinson, and Burnett, 2016). The best method to compute the share value of company may be dividend discount model only when it allows to choose growth rate on the basis of the inflation rate and other external factors of the business (Sari, and Kahraman, (2015). Therefore, this method showcases that it is not possible for the Reject Shop Company to haveAUD $ 66.35 share value as it not feasible. Recommendation The main advice to investors is that investment in the share capital of the Reject Shop would be beneficial for the investors if they invest their capital in long run irrespective of the ups and down in the short span of time. On the basis of the dividend growth model based on the non-constant growth rate, reflects that the share price of company would increase to AUD $ 59.23 which is way too high. This computation of the share value has been determined on the basis of future benefits and other outcomes available to investors. However, the crux could be there and reveals that if investors invest their capital in Reject Shop then it will surely increase the value investment of the shareholders (Tayeh, Al-Jarrah, and Tarhini, (2015). In terms of financial leverage of the Reject Shop, it has maintained high financial risk due to the high debt funding. It will be beneficial for the organization as it would lower down the cost of capital and low cost of capital will consistently increase the profitability of business. The beta computation actually made in this report reveals that company has very low fluctuation in its share price if the same is compared with the change in the share price value of the all ordinary index. The dividend growth model shows that company will have higher share price value in future. The CAPM model has also reflected that the cost of equity of company is way too low which is profitable for the organization to create value on the invested capital and raise more funds in market to expand its business (Žižlavský, (2014).
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Conclusion The above given information and details study on the Reject Shop Company has shown that company has high growth rate and will sustain its business in long run. The share price valuation is made on the basis of own assumption and set factors which might positive and negatively impact the business growth and share valuation of companyand this would be the best method to compute the feasible share value of company (The Reject Shop, (207).However, the main focus is that company the return on equity and profitability of company is way too higher and if company consistently perform like this then it will surely increase the value of the investment made by shareholders. All the shareholders should invest their capital in the Reject Shop Company if they want to increase the value of their investment. It will be profitable for the investors to invest their capital in the Reject Shop for long run. The crux of this report is that all the shares of company are undervalued and in future shareholders, who have invested their capital in this business, will surely increase the value of its investment. There might be chances that the dividend growth model will reflect the true value of the share value.The share price of the Reject shop company will be AUD $ 66.35 which reflects that if the shareholders buy the shares of company at AUD 3.18 then after five years, then they would have good amount of profit earning capacity. HoweverIt might be misleading for the investors as the currently share price value computed by this model reveals higher share price value which is not feasible. The growth rate and cost of equity should be determined very carefully if investors want to identify the true value of the invested capital.
References Phillips, J., Pincus, M. and Rego, S.O., (2013). Earnings management: New evidence based on deferred tax expense.The Accounting Review,78(2), pp.491-521. Rossi, M., (2015). The use of capital budgeting techniques: an outlook from Italy.International Journal of Management Practice,8(1), pp.43-56. Sari, I.U. and Kahraman, C., (2015). Interval type-2 fuzzy capital budgeting.International Journal of Fuzzy Systems,17(4), pp.635- Tayeh, M., Al-Jarrah, I.M. and Tarhini, A., (2015). Accounting vs. market-based measures of firm performance related to information technology investments.3rded, USA: Pearson TheRejectShop,(2015),Annualreport,Availableat https://www.rejectshop.com.au/aboutus/investorinformation/financialreport.,Accessedon25th September,2018, TheRejectShop,(2016),Annualreport,Availableat https://www.rejectshop.com.au/aboutus/investorinformation/financialreport.,Accessedon25th September,2018, Žižlavský, O., (2014) Net present value approach: method for economic assessment of innovation projects.Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,156, pp.506-512. Brigham,E.F.andEhrhardt,M.C.,(2013).Financialmanagement:Theory&practice.Cengage Learning. Brigham, E.F., (2014).Financial management theory and practice. 3rded, Australia: Atlantic Publishers & Distri. Radebaugh,L.H.,Gray,S.J.andBlack,E.L.,(2016).Internationalaccountingandmultinational enterprises. New York, NY: Wiley. Robinson, C.J. and Burnett, J.R., (2016). Financial Management Practices: An Exploratory Study of Capital Budgeting Techniques in the Caribbean Region, 2nded, USA: Pearson.
Yahoo finance, 2017, Reject Shop,Available athttps://in.finance.yahoo.com/Accessed on 25th September,2018,
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Appendix Valuation (Note: The tables below have been written using formulas which allow you to alter the informatins or assumptions.) 1. Non-Constant Growth Model A. Solving for Price: This model involves the computation of year-to-year dividends which are then dicounted at the investors required rate of return. What would an investor be willing to pay for a stock if she just received a dividend of $.24, her required return is 2.7%, and she expected dividneds to grow at a rate of 4% per year for the first two years, and then at a rate of 4+2.2%% thereafter. Step 1: Compute the expected dividends during the first growth period. g4.0% D00.24 D1 0.249 6 D2 0.259 584 D3 0.269 967 D4 0.280 766 D5 0.291 997 D6 0.298 567 D7 0.305 284 D8 0.312 153 D9 0.319 177 D100.326
358 Step 2: Compute the Estimated Value of the stock at the end of year 5 using the Constant Growth Model D5 $ 0.29 k2.70% g2.25% V2? $ 66.35 Step 3:Compute the Present Value of all expected cash flows to find the price of the stock today. Dividend YearCash Flow 1D00.24 D1 0.249 6 D2 0.259 584 D3 0.269 967 D4 0.280 766 D5 0.291 997 D6 0.298 567 PV of dividend for first 5 years Divide nd PVF@ 2.7% D1 0.249 6 0.973 71 0.243 038 D2 0.259 584 0.948 111 0.246 114 D3 0.269 967 0.923 185 0.249 23 D4 0.280 766 0.898 914 0.252 385 D5 0.291 997 0.875 282 0.255 579
Fair value of the share at the fifth year 1.246 346 Terminal value at 6th year D6 0.298 567 Ke-g 0.004 5 5.3863 56589 66.34 814 PVF for 5th year 0.875 282 PV of terminal value 58.07 33 Fair value of share 59.31 965 Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.13161 6 R Square 0.01732 3 Adjusted R Square - 0.01543 Standard Error 0.01822 4 Observations32 ANOVA dfSSMSF Significan ce F Regression10.000176 0.000 176 0.528 8460.47273 Residual300.009963 0.000 332 Total310.010139 Coeffici ents Standard Errort Stat P- value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept0.009430.003237 2.913 249 0.006 6960.002819 0.0160 4 0.00281 90.01604
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