Framework for qualitative risks analysis using Fuzzy AHP

Research paper
Framework for qualitative risks analysis using Fuzzy AHP

Contents
1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................2
Background.............................................................................................................................2
Problem Statement..................................................................................................................3
Research Questions................................................................................................................3
Research aims and Objectives................................................................................................4
Research Methodology...........................................................................................................4
2. Literature Review...............................................................................................................5
i. Concept of Fuzzy AHP in risks assessment................................................................5
ii. Contribution of different Authors................................................................................8
iii. Summary:..................................................................................................................10
3. Research Methodology.....................................................................................................11
Introduction..........................................................................................................................11
Research Method..................................................................................................................11
Data Collection.....................................................................................................................11
Data analysis.........................................................................................................................12
Summary...............................................................................................................................14
4. Findings............................................................................................................................14
Proposal of Risks Assessment through Fuzzy AHP model:.................................................18
5. Discussion.........................................................................................................................19
6. Conclusion........................................................................................................................21
Introduction..........................................................................................................................21
Future scope of the project...................................................................................................21
Research Limitation..............................................................................................................21
Recommendation..................................................................................................................21
7. References.........................................................................................................................22

1. Introduction
Background
The failure of the construction project is because of two major reason one is the delay in
completing the project in the scheduled time and other is to manage the resources for the
process undertaken within the approved cost of the project (Alrashed, Alrashad, Taj, Phillips,
and Kantamaneni, 2014). The qualitative analysis of the risks associated with the project
helps in developing effective project strategy and setting priority to the risks associated with
the project so that it can effectively completed within the given duration of time. The
outcome of the project will not be retrieved in relation to the project objectives, goal, mission,
and vision due to the occurrence of uncertainty and risks associated with the deployment of
every stage of the project (Azevedo, Ensslin, and Jungles,2014). The project goal and
objectives cannot be achieved due to the occurrence of the risk. The frequency and the
probability of the risks define its impact on the working program of construction project. The
likelihood of the risks explore the barriers associated in the project success. The uncertainty
of the risks results in the delay of project completion, difficulties in completing the scheduled
task and in-scope activities, and others. The study of the literature review helps in finding the
different methds proposed by the different authors in their research work for analysing the
occurrence of the risks associated with the project. The systematic deployment of the project
management methodology and principles works in the direction of minimizing the risks
occurrence. The use of project methodology helps in analysing the presence of risks in four
step process which are named as identification of risks, assessment of the risks, generating
response to the risks, and emphasis on monitoring and reviewing process of the risks. The
systematic arrangement of the risks increases the level of satisfaction in the customers by
completing the construction program within the given period of time. The analysis of the
literature review provides a direction and guidelines to propose a method which can be
utilized for the assessment of risks. The need and requirement of the managing the risks
arises due to the increasing failure of the construction project. The innovative methodology
should be proposed for identifying and evaluating the presence of risks and its mitigation plan
at an early stage of the project. The quality of the construction project depends upon the time
and cost required in completing the project (Carbonara, Costantino, and Gunnigan, 2012).
There are different parameters of risks and uncertainty which increases the dedicated time

and cost. It ends with the consequences of project failure. The purpose of this paper is to
present new method which is capable of identifying and assessing the risks associated with
the project. The management of risks in the project initialization phase helps in completing
the project successfully.
Problem Statement
Traditionally, it is difficult to evaluate the risks and uncertainties at an early stage of the
project. This increases the level of complexities associated with the project. The management
of resources depends on the availability of funds for completing the program. After
identification of such a gap that exist in the industry of building construction, this research
now comes in. it aims to help contractors know the risks to pay more attention too (Chan,
Yeung, Calvin, Wang, and Ke, 2014). This will introduce a technique that will rank the risk
according to their respective weights. The development of the new proposal based on Fuzzy
AHP theory helps in finishing the given task within the specified time and cost.
Research Questions
The following are the questions that the project will be seeking to answer on the topic of the
qualitative risk that are facing the building and construction industry.
 What are some of the risks that the building and the construction industry is
Vulnerable to?
 How the risks can be analysed qualitatively using fuzzy-AHP?
 How the probability and impact of risks can be assessed by linguistic terms and using
Fuzzy AHP?
 What is the procedure used for implementing the Fuzzy AHP in analysing the risks
associated with the construction program?
 How Fuzzy AHP is used in the proposed model for analysing the presence of risks?
 How the allocation of risks helps in improving the quality of the construction project
program
 What methodology should be undertaken to analyse the implication of Fuzzy AHP in
analysing the presence of risks in the project?
 What are the advantages of using the Fuzzy AHP in identifying the project risks?

Research aims and Objectives
Aim
The aim of the research paper is to review the literature for proposing the new method for
risks assessment and evaluation by making use of Fuzzy AHP theory.
Objectives
The development of the construction is equipped with various risks and uncertainties
associated with the project. The objectives of the research paper are highlighted below:
 Identification of the major risks associated with the construction project
 Analysis of the literature review to provide innovative program of Fuzzy AHP to
resolve the complexities associated with the project
 Proposing the new framework for Fuzzy AHP for risks assessment in the construction
world
 Use of Fuzzy AHP in identifying the risks in the construction program
 Identifying the probability of risks occurrence
 Process and procedure followed in implementing the Fuzzy AHP model for analysing
and assessing the presence of risks associated with the project
 Analyse the impact of risks using Fuzzy AHP technique converting linguistic terms
by introducing Fuzzy numbers.
 Classify the different identified risk according to the order of their risk factor by AHP
process.
(Introduction part is systematically divided into required section and with longer background
section, more no. of required RQ, detailed Research Objectives, and research approach in the
methodlogical section of the same)
Research Methodology
The qualitative and descriptive research methodology should be followed for analysing the
risks associated with the construction project and implication of Fuzzy AHP procedures to
minimize the impact of risks and uncertainties at early stages. The analysis of the literary
sources helps me to get a direction to identify risks associated with the construction industry
through the use of Fuzzy AHP theory. The development of the fuzzy AHP model gives the
clear precise view of managing the risks and uncertainties which are in correlation with the
construction projects. The study of literature review is the main source of data collection of

my research in providing the direction to propose a new model based on Fuzzy AHP system
for the assessment of risks and uncertainties amalgamated with the construction program
(Elkan, 2016).
(The information regarding interviews and questionnaire is totally removed)
2. Literature Review
(Specifies problem domain and fuzy solution provided by the researchers in the their paper and also
the literature review is divided into two segments as asked with the detailed structure and format
asked for literary sources)
The construction industry is facing problem in managing the risks associated with every step
of project cycle program. Every organization makes use of different risks monitoring
program to minimize the uncertainty of the construction project (Eriksson, and Furuskold,
2014). The literature review helps in analysing the risks associated with the construction
project and the implication of Fuzzy AHP in managing the risks associated with the project.
The authors focus on identifying the risks in the development program of constructing the
building. The magnitude of the risks should be measured by analysing the risks severity and
risks likelihood related with the construction program. The measure of the risks impact
defines the priority of the risks to be resolved to lower down the project risks (Firmanzyah,
Veronika, and Trigunarsyah, 2016). The process of identifying the qualitative risks analysis
helps in evaluating the probability of risks and its impact on the development process of
construction project. The generation of the risks matrix helps in identifying the probability of
the risks. The mitigation strategies are composed of sequence of processes which are
classified as risks avoidance program, risk transfer process, risks management, and
acceptance of risks (Halil, Nasir, Hassan, Shukur, 2016).
The analysis of the different perspective of the authors helps in evaluating the factors
responsible for delaying the construction work of the undertaken building. The major project
fails due to the incapability of the project manager in taking effective decision for the
completion of the project without any complexity. They are having limited skills of creative
thinking in managing the issues and flaws of the organization (Hyari, and Kandil, 2009). The
problem of decision making can be resolved by managing the multi-criteria aspect of solving
the given problem. The deployment of analytical hierarchical process helps in providing the
multi-criteria environment to take applicable decision in solving the given scenario of