Financial Analysis of Wesfarmers: Profitability and Operating Efficiency
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This report provides an insight into the financial performance of Wesfarmers Ltd. through ratio analysis, cash management, and sensitivity analysis. It evaluates the profitability and operating efficiency of the company and provides recommendations for investment.
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HI5002: Group Assignment 1
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Abstract This report has been developed for the purpose of providing an insight into the financial performance of an ASX listed entity, that is, Wesfarmers Ltd. The financial evaluation conducted withtheuseofratioanalysis,systematicandunsystematicrisks,dividendpolicy,cash management and sensitivity analysis has revealed that Wesfarmers is having good future growth prospects owing to its higher profitability position. It is also effectively managing its systematic and unsystematic risks in an effective manner and providing good dividend to shareholders and thus selected for an investment purpose by an institutional investor. 2
Contents Abstract............................................................................................................................................2 Section I: Introduction to the report.................................................................................................4 Section II: Financial Analysis of Wesfarmers for last three years (2016, 2017 and 2018).............4 Section 2.1: Overview of the selected company..........................................................................4 Section 2.2: Ratio Analysis of Wesfarmers.................................................................................5 Profitability Analysis of Wesfarmers...........................................................................................5 Operating Efficiency Analysis of Wesfarmers............................................................................7 Section 2.3: Use of marketable securities by Wesfarmers for cash management purpose..........9 Section 2.4: Application of sensitivity analysis through using the capital budgeting scenario...9 Section 2.5: Information on systematic risks and unsystematic risks that impacts the performance of Wesfarmers.......................................................................................................16 Systematic Risks........................................................................................................................16 Unsystematic Risks....................................................................................................................16 Section 2.6: Estimation of dividend payout ratio and identification of dividend policy used by the management at Wesfarmers.................................................................................................17 Section III: Recommendation Letter.............................................................................................18 Section IV: Conclusion..................................................................................................................19 References......................................................................................................................................20 3
Section I: Introduction to the report Thebusinessentitiestendtodisclosetheinformationrelatingtotheirfinancial performance through the help of developing the financial statements. The financial statements are analyzed by the end-users such as investors for gaining an insight into the present and future growth of a company. This is largely required to take correct investment decisions and ensuring that the wealth of the investors’ remains protected. This report has been developed for providing support to an institutional investor aiming to invest within the Australian market. In this context, an ASX listed entity having a promising future for investment in Australia has been selected for the purpose of financial evaluation. The financial evaluation has been done by the use of examination of the financial statements of the selected company with the use of technique such as ratio analysis, cash management, and sensitivity analysis, discussion of systematic and unsystematic risks, analysis of dividend payout ratio and providing recommendation to the investors on the basis of financial evaluation carried out. The ASX listed entity that has been selected for the purpose of financial evaluation is Wesfarmers Limited, a supermarket giant in Australia. Section II: Financial Analysis of Wesfarmers for last three years (2016, 2017 and 2018) Section 2.1: Overview of the selected company Wesfarmers Limited is a supermarket giant of Australia whose headquarter is located Perth. The company is regarded to be in a conglomerate business as it is involved in different businesses such as retail, chemicals, fertilizers, home improvement, outdoor living, apparel, general merchandise and industrial safety products. As such, the major business segments have been divided into following categories: Home Improvements Department Stores Industrial Safety Products Office Works The company since its establishment in the year 1914 has been recognized as one of the major retailing company within Australia. It is regarded as one of the largest employer within the country. It conducts its diverse business operations with the help of its many subsidiaries such as Bunning’s Warehouse, Kmart, Officeworks and others across Australia. The primary objective of the company is to promote sustainable growth of its business through long-term management. The company since its establishment has prioritized to become a sustainable company by conducts its business operations in a responsible and ethical manner. The high emphasis placed on sustainability has enabled the company to promote its long-term growth and development by achieving a distinctive position in the retailing sector of Australia. It strong commitment towards 4
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promoting the growth and development of local communities and reducing the environmental impact has enabled it to create value over long-term (Wesfarmers Limited, 2019). Section 2.2: Ratio Analysis of Wesfarmers This section of the report will provide the detailed calculation of performance ratios dividedintotwomajorcategoriesprofitabilityandoperatingefficiency.Firstlydetailed calculation has been made for ratios for last three years (2016, 2017 and 2018). All financial data has been gathered from the annual reports available on company website under investor’s relation section. Profitability Analysis of Wesfarmers The purpose of profitability ratios is to evaluate the profitability performance of the company during the specific period and it also allows the comparisons of profitability among two. It means current profitability performance of Wesfarmers can be compared with previous year in to order to evaluate the trend in performance. Profitability ratios measure the ability of company to earn the sales revenue through use of resources available with the company. Some of the important profitability ratios are net profit ratio, gross profit ratio, return on assets and return on equity. Data extracted from the financial report of Wesfarmers for last three years Items of financeYear 2015Year 2016Year 2017Year 2018 Amount in $ Million Profit before Interest and tax $ 3,454.00 $ 4,400.00 $ 4,468.00 Net profit after tax $ 2,646.00 $ 2,955.00 $ 3,025.00 Net Revenue $ 66,085.00 $ 68,648.00 $ 67,152.00 Equity Shareholders value $ 24,781.00 $ 22,949.00 $ 23,941.00 $ 22,754.00 Average shareholder's equity $ 23,865.00 $ 23,445.00 $ 23,347.50 Assets (Total) $ 40,402.00 $ 40,783.00 $ 40,115.00 $ 36,933.00 Average total assets $ 40,592.50 $ 40,449.00 $ 38,524.00 (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018; Wesfarmers Limited. 2017 and Wesfarmers Limited. 2016) Profitability Ratio (Wesfarmers) RatiosFormula201620172018 Profit earned (Return) on Total Assets Profit before Interest and tax/Average assets (Total) 8.51%10.88%11.60% 5
Net profit ratioNet Profit (After tax)/ Revenue (Net)4.00%4.30%4.50% Profit earned (Return) on Total Equity Net profit after tax/Average shareholder's equity 11.09%12.60%12.96% (Brigham and Michael, 2013) 201620172018 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 8.51% 10.88% 11.60% 4.00%4.30%4.50% 11.09% 12.60%12.96% Profitability Ratio of Wesfarmers Percentage Profit earned (Return) on Total Assets: Percentage of earnings earned through use of total assets implying how efficient management is using the assets to earn the earnings. Return on total assets implies percentage of profits before tax and interest earned on average total assets applied in the particular year. Wesfarmers has return on total assets of 8.51% in year 2016 that got increased to 10.88% in year 2017 and further increased to 11.60% in year 2018. It means there is positive increasing trend in this ratio from year 2016 to 2018. The main reason behind the increase in return on total assets was better management policies and change in policies to utilize the assets available with the company (Tracy, 2012). Net profit ratio:Net profit ratio is very important as it provide percentage of earnings left after all expenses including tax has been applied on total net revenue from the particular period. This ratio is very important from the investor’s point of view as it provides information on how return company has earned in particular period. Wesfarmers has earned profit of 4% in year 2016, increased to 4.30% in year 2017 and further 6
increased to 4.50% in year 2018 that implies positive increasing trend in net profit ratio in last three years. The retail industry of Australia has faced tough times in last 5 years and it is very hard to earn good net profit. This is the reason why profit is less as compared to percentage of net profit in other industries. Wesfarmers has earned substantial net profit during the past three years and there was increasing trend in this ratio. Profit earned (Return) on Total Equity:The ratio denotes the profitability position of a company by providing an assessment of the net income realized over the equity base of its shareholders. The ROE of the company has depicted an increasing trend over the past three years from 11.09% to 12.96% which means that it is generating increasing returns over the equity resources of its shareholders (Arnold, 2013). Operating Efficiency Analysis of Wesfarmers Data extracted from the financial report of Wesfarmers for last three years Items of financeYear 2015Year 2016Year 2017Year 2018 Amount in $ Million Net Revenue $ 66,085.00 $ 68,648.00 $ 67,152.00 Account Receivables (Net) $ 1,463.00 $ 1,628.00 $ 1,633.00 $ 1,657.00 Average account receivable $ 1,545.50 $ 1,630.50 $ 1,645.00 Assets (Total) $ 40,402.00 $ 40,783.00 $ 40,115.00 $ 36,933.00 Average total assets $ 40,592.50 $ 40,449.00 $ 38,524.00 Cost of Goods Sold $ 45,930.00 $ 45,033.00 $ 46,123.00 Inventory items $ 5,497.00 $ 6,260.00 $ 6,530.00 $ 6,011.00 Average Inventory $ 5,878.50 $ 6,395.00 $ 6,270.50 (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018; Wesfarmers Limited. 2017 and Wesfarmers Limited. 2016) Efficiency Ratio (Wesfarmers) RatiosFormula201620172018 Inventory Turnover ratio Cost of goods sold/Average inventory 7.817.047.36 Account Receivable turnover ratioNet sales/Average account receivables42.7642.1040.82 7
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Asset Turnover ratioNet Sales/Average total assets1.631.701.74 201620172018 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 7.817.047.36 42.7642.1040.82 1.631.701.74 Effeciency Ratio of Wesfarmers Times Inventory Turnover ratio:The ratio depicts the efficiency a company to realize sales from its inventory base. The ratio has depicted a decreasing trend from 7.81 to 7.36 which cannot be regarded as good for its future financial growth prospects. This is due to decreeing ability of the company to replace inventory and realize sales. This would lead to increasing the cost of goods sold and thus can have a negative impact on the long-term profitability position of the company (Hitchner, 2011). Account Receivable turnover ratio:It denotes the efficiency of a company to collect payments over its outstanding invoices and bills. The ratio for Wesfarmers have also depicted a decreasing trend from 42.76 to 40.82 over 2016-2018 which means that it possess a liquidity risk of not able to realize cash from its accounts receivables in an 8
effective manner which can lead to reduction in its operational efficiency and thus long- term profits,. Asset Turnover ratio:The asset turnover ratio for the company has depicted an increasing trend over the past three financial years from 1.63 to 1.74. The ratio is also higher than 1 over the selected time-period which means that it possess good efficiency to realize sales from the asset base (Baker and Powell, 2009). Section 2.3: Use of marketable securities by Wesfarmers for cash management purpose Marketablesecuritiesrefertotheshorttermfinancialinstrumentsthatareeasily redeemable in the market and they can be easily brought and sold in the market. It means maturity period of the marketable securities is less than 1 year. The purpose of using the marketable securities is to make sure enough liquidated cash is available with the company that can be used in one year time period to pay the current liabilities. Marketable securities can be both debt securities and equity securities dependent upon the securities chosen by the company. Investment in shares, bonds, and debentures are some of examples of marketable securities (Krantz, 2016). Wesfarmers Limited manages uses cash and cash equivalent such as capital market debt, corporate bonds, financial instruments and other derivatives to manage their cash requirements. All these marketable securities are being valued at fair value or carrying value depending upon the value of marketable securities. So, it can be said that Wesfarmers make efficient use of marketable securities to manage its cash requirements. Wesfarmers regularly trades in derivative market and also in corporate bonds to get some benefit from the market. In addition to this Wesfarmers have enough cash and cash equivalents to achieve the working capital requirements (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018). Section 2.4: Application of sensitivity analysis through using the capital budgeting scenario Scenario Given Total life of the project4 Years Initial Cost of Equipment $ 2,000,000.00 Residual Value of the equipment $ 200,000.00 Depreciation MethodStraight Line Equipment Life4 Years Depreciation each year $ 450,000.00 Working Capital required in year 0 $ 600,000.00 Working capital recovered in year 4 Units sold 9
Year 1300000 Year 2300000 Year 3300000 Year 4300000 Selling Price of product $ 20.00 Variable Cost of the product $ 12.00 Fixed Cost in each year $ 300,000.00 Discount Rate used to discount the cash flows10% Tax Rate30% Firstly there is need to calculate the cash flow without any change in value driver: 10
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01234 Cash Inflows Units sold300000300000300000300000 Selling price20$20$20$20$ Net Cash Inflows6,000,000$6,000,000$6,000,000$6,000,000$ Cash Outflows Variable Cost3,600,000$3,600,000$3,600,000$3,600,000$ Fixed Cost300,000$300,000$300,000$300,000$ Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Total Cash outflows4,350,000$4,350,000$4,350,000$4,350,000$ Cash flows before tax1,650,000$1,650,000$1,650,000$1,650,000$ Less: Tax @ 30%495,000$495,000$495,000$495,000$ Cash Flows after tax1,155,000$1,155,000$1,155,000$1,155,000$ Add: Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Cash Flows before depreciation after tax1,605,000$1,605,000$1,605,000$1,605,000$ Initial Equiment Cost(2,000,000)$ Salvage Value200,000$ Working Capital Initial Requirement(600,000)$ Recovery600,000$ Net Cash Flows(2,600,000)$1,605,000$1,605,000$1,605,000$2,405,000$ PVF @ 10%1.0000.9090.8260.7510.683 (2,600,000)$1,459,091$1,326,446$1,205,860$1,642,647$ Net Present Value3,034,045$ Cash Flows during the life of the project in normal Case Years Particulars 11
Sensitivity Case 1: When there is decrease in sales unit by 10% 01234 Cash Inflows Selling Units270000270000270000270000 Selling price20.00$20.00$20.00$20.00$ Net Cash Inflows$5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000 Cash Outflows Variable Cost$3,240,000$3,240,000$3,240,000$3,240,000 Fixed Cost$300,000$300,000$300,000$300,000 Depreciation$450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000 Total Cash outflows$3,990,000$3,990,000$3,990,000$3,990,000 Cash flows before tax$1,410,000$1,410,000$1,410,000$1,410,000 Less: Tax @ 30%$423,000$423,000$423,000$423,000 Cash Flows after tax$987,000$987,000$987,000$987,000 Add: Depreciation$450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000 Cash Flows before depreciation after tax$1,437,000$1,437,000$1,437,000$1,437,000 Initial Equiment Cost(2,000,000)$ Salvage Value200,000$ Working Capital Initial Requirement(600,000)$ Recovery600,000$ Net Cash Flows-$2,600,000$1,437,000$1,437,000$1,437,000$2,237,000 PVF @ 10%1.0000.9090.8260.7510.683 (2,600,000)$1,306,364$1,187,603$1,079,639$1,527,901$ Net Present Value2,501,507$ Statement of Cash flows when Unit sales decrease by 10% ParticularsYears When the total units got decreased by 10% in each year then net present value has been decreased to $ 2501507 as compared to net present value of $ 3034045 in normal case. Sensitivity Case 2: When price per unit got decreased by 10% each year 12
01234 Cash Inflows Selling Units300000300000300000300000 Selling price18.00$18.00$18.00$18.00$ Net Cash Inflows5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$ Cash Outflows Variable Cost3,600,000$3,600,000$3,600,000$3,600,000$ Fixed Cost300,000$300,000$300,000$300,000$ Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Total Cash outflows4,350,000$4,350,000$4,350,000$4,350,000$ Cash flows before tax1,050,000$1,050,000$1,050,000$1,050,000$ Less: Tax @ 30%315,000$315,000$315,000$315,000$ Cash Flows after tax735,000$735,000$735,000$735,000$ Add: Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Cash Flows before depreciation after tax$1,185,000$1,185,000$1,185,000$1,185,000 Initial Equiment Cost(2,000,000)$ Salvage Value200,000$ Working Capital Initial Requirement(600,000)$ Recovery600,000$ Net Cash Flows-$2,600,000$1,185,000$1,185,000$1,185,000$1,985,000 PVF @ 10%1.0000.9090.8260.7510.683 (2,600,000)$1,077,273$979,339$890,308$1,355,782$ Net Present Value1,702,701$ Statement of Cash flows when Price per unit decreases by 10% ParticularsYears When the price per unit of product got decreased by 10% in each year then net present value has been decreased to $ 1702701 as compared to net present value of $ 3034045 in normal case. Sensitivity Case 3: Variable cost got increase by 10% in each year 13
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01234 Cash Inflows Selling Units300000300000300000300000 Selling price18.00$18.00$18.00$18.00$ Net Cash Inflows5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$ Cash Outflows Variable Cost3,960,000$3,960,000$3,960,000$3,960,000$ Fixed Cost300,000$300,000$300,000$300,000$ Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Total Cash outflows4,710,000$4,710,000$4,710,000$4,710,000$ Cash flows before tax690,000$690,000$690,000$690,000$ Less: Tax @ 30%207,000$207,000$207,000$207,000$ Cash Flows after tax483,000$483,000$483,000$483,000$ Add: Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Cash Flows before depreciation after tax933,000$933,000$933,000$933,000$ Initial Equiment Cost-$2,000,000 Salvage Value$200,000 Working Capital Initial Requirement-$600,000 Recovery$600,000 Net Cash Flows-$2,600,000$933,000$933,000$933,000$1,733,000 PVF @ 10%1.0000.9090.8260.7510.683 (2,600,000)$848,182$771,074$700,977$1,183,662$ Net Present Value903,895$ Statement of Cash flows when Variable cost per unit increases 10% ParticularsYears When the variable cost per unit got increased by 10% in each year then net present value has been decreased to $ 903895 as compared to net present value of $ 3034045 in normal case. Sensitivity Case 4: Fixed Cost per year got increased by 10% 14
01234 Cash Inflows Selling Units300000300000300000300000 Selling price18.00$18.00$18.00$18.00$ Net Cash Inflows5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$5,400,000$ Cash Outflows Variable Cost3,960,000$3,960,000$3,960,000$3,960,000$ Fixed Cost330,000$330,000$330,000$330,000$ Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Total Cash outflows4,740,000$4,740,000$4,740,000$4,740,000$ Cash flows before tax660,000$660,000$660,000$660,000$ Less: Tax @ 30%198,000$198,000$198,000$198,000$ Cash Flows after tax462,000$462,000$462,000$462,000$ Add: Depreciation450,000$450,000$450,000$450,000$ Cash Flows before depreciation after tax912,000$912,000$912,000$912,000$ Initial Equiment Cost(2,000,000)$ Salvage Value200,000$ Working Capital Initial Requirement-$600,000 Recovery$600,000 Net Cash Flows-$2,600,000$912,000$912,000$912,000$1,712,000 PVF @ 10%1.0000.9090.8260.7510.683 (2,600,000)$829,091$753,719$685,199$1,169,319$ Net Present Value837,328$ Statement of Cash flows when Cash fixed cost per year increases by 10% ParticularsYears When fixed cost per year increased by 10% than net present value has decreased to $ 837328 as compared to net present value of $ 3034045 in normal case. Overall conclusion: It can be said that even a small change in main value driver can impact the net present to greater extent and it has been seen in all the four cases of sensitivity. When the value of main driver has been altered to consider overall risks than it has been found that net present value also got decreased. It means value of net present is greatly impacted by the risk associated with the project (Davies and Crawford, 2011). 15
Section 2.5: Information on systematic risks and unsystematic risks that impacts the performance of Wesfarmers Systematic Risks The systematic risks that are the market risk associated with the fluctuations in the external marketplace and are non-diversifiable in nature. The systematic risks that are related with Wesfarmers are discussed as follows: Foreign Currency Risk The Wesfarmers Group is exposed to the risks of variations in the foreign currency that arises due to sale of its products in foreign currencies other than the division’s functional currency. It is exposed to the fluctuations in the US dollar and Euro in context of its debt obligations also. It also conducts its operations in New Zealand and therefore its earnings’ potential can also be significantly impacted by the fluctuations in the currency movement among Australia and New Zealand dollar rate. As such, the Group tends to reduce the effect of fluctuations in the foreign currency with the use of hedging contracts. The Group ensures that the hedging instrument must be in the same currency as the item being hedged. It will in establishing the earning potential of the company from the negative impact of the sudden fluctuations in the currency market (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018). Interest Rate Risk The Group is exposed to changes in the market interest rate mainly due to its debt obligations that are associated with having floating rate of interest. The Group as such advocates the use of interest rate risk management policy that intends for developing recommendations regarding hedging of interest rate that is carried out by the Chief Financial Officer. It also adopts the use of interest rate swaps for hedging the interest rate costs that is associated with its debt obligations (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018). Commodity Price Risk The risks are associated with the operations of Wesfarmers due to variations in the process of coal that would have an impact on its coal mining operations. It tends to mitigate the risk by the use of future contract that helps it to gain a hedge over the cash flows that can arise due the adverse movements in the natural gas (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018). Unsystematic Risks The risks are related with internal operations of a company and it can be reduced to a large extent by the use of diversification strategy by an investor. The unsystematic risks associated with Wesfarmers can be categorized as follows: Liquidity Risk 16
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Wesfarmers operations are also exposed to risk associated with liquidity risk on account of its capital management policies that incorporates the use of debt for conducting its various operations (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018). It tends to adopt the sue of a flexible financing structure that emphasizes on taking advantages of new investment as a result of which the use of debt tends to increase in the capital structure. The Group tends to maintain a balance between different sources of funds such as using bank loans, accepted bills, commercial paper, corporate bonds and gaining access to overnight money from different financial instruments having short- term maturities. The flexibility in the debt structure of the company ensures that risk of liquidity is managed by maintaining adequate of cash through using diverse resources (Damodaran, 2011). Credit Risk The credit risk is the risk that is associated with the operations of Wesfarmers due to inability of its contractual parties to meet the financial obligations and this can results in incurring financial loss to the Group. The Group is exposed to credit risk mainly due to operating and financing activities such as customer receivables, foreign exchange transactions and other financial instruments. The Group tends to manage the risk by regular assessing the credit terms and conducting credit verification. The credit verification can be conducted through assessing the independent credit rating and analyzing their past, present and estimated future financial outcome (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018). Section 2.6: Estimation of dividend payout ratio and identification of dividend policy used by the management at Wesfarmers Calculation of Dividend Payout Ratio of Wesfarmers Items201620172018 Dividend Per Share$1.86$2.23$2.23 Earnings Per Share$2.10$2.55$2.45 Dividend Payout Ratio88.57%87.45%91.02% 17
201620172018 85.00% 86.00% 87.00% 88.00% 89.00% 90.00% 91.00% 92.00% 88.57% 87.45% 91.02% Dividend Payout Ratio In Percentage (Wesfarmers Limited, 2018; Wesfarmers Limited. 2017 and Wesfarmers Limited. 2016) There has been no trend in the dividend payout ratio of Wesfarmers in last three years. On the basis of information gathered on dividend payout ratio of Wesfarmers it can be said that management is following the constant payout ratio that ranges from the 85% to 95% per year. Dividend policy remains to be constant in last three years. The reason why Wesfarmers is giving such a high dividend payout ratio is to attract the new potential investors and also to provide very high return to the equity shareholders (Brigham and Michael, 2013). Section III: Recommendation Letter It is recommended to an institutional investor on the basis of overall financial analysis of Wesfarmers carried out that is having good future growth prospects on the basis of its sound profitability position as depicted from ratio analysis. The company is having higher net profits and also able to realize increasing returns on its asset and equity investment over the past three financial years. The increasing revenue margins of the company over the past three financial periods’ supports its future growth prospects. However, its efficiency position is not that sound but it is stable and overall the company can be regarded in growing phase due to increase customer demands and increasing sales of the company across Australia and New Zealand. Also, it is providing good dividends to shareholders and has adequate cash management resources for effectively meet the short-term financial obligations and thus reducing the liquidity risk. As such, an institutional investor should select Wesfarmers as one of the companies in the investment portfolio as it is intended to provide higher returns in the future period of time. 18
Section IV: Conclusion It can be summarized from the discussion held that financial evaluation of a company can be adequately carried out by the use of techniques of ratio analysis, examination of cash management, conducting sensitivity analysis, identifying systematic and unsystematic risks and also through evaluation of the dividend policy. Wesfarmers on the basis of overall financial evaluation carried out is stated to have higher growth prospects and as such can be regarded as good for investment purpose by an institutional investor. 19
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