Sample of Single Number Probability
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Added on 2019-09-16
Sample of Single Number Probability
Added on 2019-09-16
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instructionsTopic:For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood.Examples includeThe likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA Championship in 20##.The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-generated imagery by the year 20##.The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants care about, and also know something about (although you need not be experts).Participants:You will be the coordinator. Select three other persons as participants. Their cooperation will be important, so be sure to choose people you can count on. These can be either family members, close friends, or other students (although not students enrolled inthiscourse. They’ll be busy coordinating their own Delphi exercises.)SLP Assignment ExpectationsAs closely as possible, the SLP should follow the detailed example, which is cited in the Home Page discussion. You may copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it. (This special dispensation is intended to help move things along.)The SLP writeup should includeThe Letters to the Participants, explaining the project and requesting their assistance.The first-round responses from the participants, edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).
Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online athttps://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required. However:If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday conversation. (Example: “As Rodney Dangerfield always used to say, ‘I get no respect!’ “)-----Answer for TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING (Home page)GLOSSARYStart: Patient arrives at the front desk.A. Has patientbeen admitted?B. Patient checked into ward.C. Is patient in labor?D. Patient sent to admission office.E. Patient is admitted.THIS IS THE HOME PAGE READING THAT WAS SPOKEN ABOUTThe SLP has no reference-and-citation requirements at all.The Discussions do, but there are no requirements concerning the number and type of sources that need to be cited.About the Assignments:
Just because the assignments don’t require a lot of writing, don’t think they’re easy. You should at least read the Home Page of each module, on the first day of that module. Do not, repeat NOT, attempt the assignments without first studying all the prescribed materials, and working through the examples. Attempting to cut corners will only result in frustration.A Word to the Wise:In the middle of the Web, as in the middle of the Garden of Eden, there is a Tree of Forbidden Fruit. That fruit consists of worked-out assignments. Thou shalt not eat of it!Every Case is revised at the beginning of every Session. If you surf the Web, you’ll find cases that look the same, but they’re not. The differences may be difficult for you to spot, but they’re obvious to your professor, and if you’re caught using the Web version, you’ll receive a flat and final zero (F).The consequences of getting a zero on a Case are dire.Even if you received a clean A (full credit) on every other assignment and discussion, the loss of 50 points would bringyou down to the edge of the B range. And getting a clean A on everything else would be a remarkable achievement. If you could do that, you certainly wouldn’t need to cheat.So the Word to the Wise, with regards to cheating, is this:Don’t.And so to work ---Topic 1: FlowchartingFor many people, understanding a process begins with a sketch. If they can’t depict a situation using boxes, arrows, stick figures, abbreviations and whatever, then they don’t feel they really know what’s going on.Flowcharting is nothing more than a disciplined way of sketching. It helps people organize their thoughts, and also communicate those thoughts to others. Even a rough
sketch can be useful. Many flowcharts been scrawled on whiteboards, tabletops, cocktail napkins, and the backs of envelopes.Flowcharts can help us get our heads around new processes. They can also help us describe existing processes, either for training purposes, or the goal of improving them. Flowcharts are used in many different disciplines, each having its own set of symbols and conventions; if you’re a software engineer, for example, you’re familiar with flowchart symbols standing for I/O devices, processing spaces, and online storage. If you’re working in telecommunications or simulations technology, you’ve doubtless seen at least one SDL diagram, which is a specialized type of flowchart.In this Module, we’ll use a bare-bones set of flowchart symbols: activities, decisions, connectors, and endpoints, connected by arrows. This is analogous to a made-up language consisting of nothing but nouns, verbs, modifiers, periods, and a rudimentary positional grammar. Not enoughfor the “real world,” but adequate for training purposes.Please see Rensvold (2014a), a PPT deck which describes the elements of flowcharting, and presents a worked-out example. For additional background, you can read an excellent overview published by Air University (AU, 2013), and Murphy’s (2005) short summary. For even more information, use Google to search “Flowchart” and “Flowcharting.” There are thousands of related sites on the Web.Have you done the reading? If not, then stop – you should at least take a look at the PPT deck. If you’ve done the reading, then here are some additional tips. Read and studythem before attempting the Case.0. Flowcharting requires a lot of empirical trial and error (aka fiddling around). Start with a big piece of paper, a soft lead pencil, and a block eraser. The eraser is important – you’ll need it. Other people find it convenient to use a whiteboard or a chalk board. One creative soul wrote out all
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