Sample of Single Number Probability

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instructionsTopic:For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that canbe expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood.Examples includeThe likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBAChampionship in 20##.The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-generated imagery by the year 20##.The topic should be something that both you and yourexercise participants care about, and also know somethingabout (although you need not be experts).Participants:You will be the coordinator.Select three other persons asparticipants.Their cooperation will be important, so be sureto choose people you can count on.These can be eitherfamily members, close friends, or other students (althoughnot students enrolled inthiscourse.They’ll be busycoordinating their own Delphi exercises.)SLP Assignment ExpectationsAs closely as possible, the SLP should follow the detailedexample, which is cited in the Home Page discussion.Youmay copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example withoutciting it.(This special dispensation is intended to help movethings along.)The SLP writeup should includeThe Letters to the Participants, explaining the project and requesting theirassistance.The first-round responses from the participants, edited to removeidentifying information (such as email addresses).
Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014edition), available online at are no guidelines concerning length.Write what you need to write– neither more, nor less.In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required.However:If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’tyour own, then you should credit the source, just like you would ineveryday conversation.(Example:“As Rodney Dangerfield always usedto say, ‘I get no respect!’ “)-----Answer for TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING (Home page)GLOSSARYStart: Patientarrives at thefront desk.A.Has patientbeenadmitted?B.Patientchecked intoward.C.Is patientin labor?D.Patientsent toadmissionoffice.E.Patient isadmitted.THIS IS THE HOME PAGE READING THAT WAS SPOKEN ABOUTThe SLP has no reference-and-citation requirements at all.The Discussions do, but there are no requirementsconcerning the number and type of sources that need to becited.About the Assignments:
Just because the assignments don’t require a lot of writing,don’t think they’re easy.You should at least read the HomePage of each module, on the first day of that module.Donot, repeat NOT, attempt the assignments without firststudying all the prescribed materials, and working throughthe examples.Attempting to cut corners will only result infrustration.A Word to the Wise:In the middle of the Web, as in the middle of the Garden ofEden, there is a Tree of Forbidden Fruit.That fruit consistsof worked-out assignments.Thou shalt not eat of it!Every Case is revised at the beginning of every Session.Ifyou surf the Web, you’ll find cases that look the same, butthey’re not.The differences may be difficult for you to spot,but they’re obvious to your professor, and if you’re caughtusing the Web version, you’ll receive a flat and final zero (F).The consequences of getting a zero on a Case are dire.Even if you received a clean A (full credit) on every otherassignment and discussion, the loss of 50 points would bringyou down to the edge of the B range.And getting a clean Aon everything else would be a remarkable achievement.Ifyou could do that, you certainly wouldn’t need to cheat.So the Word to the Wise, with regards to cheating, is this:Don’t.And so to work ---Topic 1:FlowchartingFor many people, understanding a process begins with asketch.If they can’t depict a situation using boxes, arrows,stick figures, abbreviations and whatever, then they don’tfeel they really know what’s going on.Flowcharting is nothing more than a disciplined way ofsketching.It helps people organize their thoughts, and alsocommunicate those thoughts to others.Even a rough
sketch can be useful.Many flowcharts been scrawled onwhiteboards, tabletops, cocktail napkins, and the backs ofenvelopes.Flowcharts can help us get our heads around newprocesses.They can also help us describe existingprocesses, either for training purposes, or the goal ofimproving them.Flowcharts are used in many differentdisciplines, each having its own set of symbols andconventions;if you’re a software engineer, for example,you’re familiar with flowchart symbols standing for I/Odevices, processing spaces, and online storage.If you’reworking in telecommunications or simulations technology,you’ve doubtless seen at least one SDL diagram, which is aspecialized type of flowchart.In this Module, we’ll use a bare-bones set of flowchartsymbols:activities, decisions, connectors, and endpoints,connected by arrows.This is analogous to a made-uplanguage consisting of nothing but nouns, verbs, modifiers,periods, and a rudimentary positional grammar.Not enoughfor the “real world,” but adequate for training purposes.Please see Rensvold (2014a), a PPT deck which describesthe elements of flowcharting, and presents a worked-outexample.For additional background, you can read anexcellent overview published by Air University (AU, 2013),and Murphy’s (2005) short summary.For even moreinformation, use Google to search “Flowchart” and“Flowcharting.”There are thousands of related sites on theWeb.Have you done the reading?If not, then stop – you shouldat least take a look at the PPT deck.If you’ve done thereading, then here are some additional tips.Read and studythem before attempting the Case.0.Flowcharting requires a lot of empirical trial and error(aka fiddling around).Start with a big piece of paper, a softlead pencil, and a block eraser.The eraser is important –you’ll need it. Other people find it convenient to use awhiteboard or a chalk board.One creative soul wrote out all
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