International Crisis: Iran-European Union & USA-Israel

This essay analyzes the situation between Iran, European Union & USA-Israel regarding the nuclear deal and proposes a strategy for resolving the issue. It also proposes the strategy relating to diminishing the differences between US and European Union.

Running head: International Crisis

International Crisis 1
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS: IRAN – EUROPEAN UNION & USA-
ISRAEL
As per DW News, the Prime Minister of Israel has claimed that Iran has violated the conditions
of nuclear deal which was signed in the year 2015 with the major world powers namely: China,
Germany, France, Russia, US and UK. He said that he was prepared to expose Iran by sharing
the files of the nuclear weapon program of Iran. Israel has uncovered 55,000 documents and 183
CDs from the nuclear archives of Iran.
Israel has recovered about half a ton of documents which prove that Iran had lied about the
nuclear weapon initiative and continued to safeguard and expand its nuclear weapon program so
that it can be used in the future. After the nuclear deal was signed in the year 2015, Iran
attempted to hide the secret files by replacing them to some private location in Tehran in the year
2017.
However, Iran had a bitter response against the matter. It has questioned the validity of the
demands for changing nuclear deal. Tehran has also dismissed the allegations imposed by Israel
stating that they were times to create an impact on the upcoming US reviews of sanctions. So,
this essay analyses the situation and attempts to propose a strategy for resolving the issue.
Furthermore, it also proposes the strategy relating to diminishing the differences between US and
European Union.
United States has reaffirmed the allegations made by Israel that Iran has a robust nuclear weapon
strategy which it is trying to fail and hide from its citizens and the related documents have been
preserved in its capital Tehran. Israel has claimed that it has obtained half ton documents which
had verified that Iran has lied about its nuclear weapon strategies. It has continued to safeguard
and enlarge its nuclear arms so that they can be used for attacking its enemies in future. After it
had signed the nuclear deal in 2015 with the six major powers of the world, it had started
preparing for its empowerment in terms of nuclear power (Adebahr).

International Crisis 2
Israel has been investigating into the matter and it has seized the incriminating documents,
charts, blueprints, presentations, photographs and videos which authenticates that Iran has been
working on its nuclear weapon program. Iran has been working on a project known as ‘Project
Amad ‘ which was initiated in 1990s with the intention to design, produce and test the five
weapons of 10 Kiloton each for their integration on a missile. It is like five Hiroshima bombs to
be placed on the missiles (Halbfinger, Sanger and Bergman).
Project Amad comprised of five components namely formulating the nuclear weapons,
evaluating them and building their collapse mechanisms. The project was formulated to prepare
the country for nuclear tests and incorporating the nuclear warheads on the weaponries. The
documents proved that Iran has been deceitful about its declaration that it never initiated any
nuclear weapon program (Wintour and Borger).
Israel also claimed that the said project was closed in the year 2003 due to growing pressure.
However, Iran had cunningly split its nuclear strategies and transformed them in order to avoid
further investigation by the neighboring countries. It had planned to constantly work for
developing the nuclear weapons under various pretexts by using the same task force to
accomplish its goal (Fulbright).
Despite of the denial of Iran regarding its nuclear development programs to the International
Atomic Energy watchdog, the confiscated documents clear state that the country verified,
developed and supported Project Amad monetarily. The report projected by the Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concluded that even after signing the nuclear deal with the major
powers of the world, Iran constantly maintained and extended the nuclear know how so that it
can be used in the future. Upon signing the nuclear deal, it had pledged to restrict the
development of its nuclear program in exchange for relief from the nuclear related US and
international sanctions. But due to the repeated allegations on Iran for developing and extending
its nuclear program , the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA) had lifted its approvals
for at least 10-15 years . According to the US Congressional deadlines, the president is required
to review that if Washington continues to ban or reimpose the approvals on Iran (Geranmayeh ).

International Crisis 3
German and UK Governments have also supported the Israeli government stating that IAEA
must analyze whether the data provided by the investigation agencies is authenticated or not .
It has also been stated that the approvals gave a clear path to Iran regarding the uranium
enrichment but they did not authorize it to execute the missile programs or nuclear weapon
objectives. However, the decision lies upon US President whether he shall approve or
disapprove Iran of executing its nuclear strategies.
The proposed strategy to avoid international conflict amongst the countries in this regard can be
to formulate short and medium term plans to build trade with Iran upon the condition that it
would comply with the regulations of the deal along with adding additional reforms. The nuclear
agreement between Iran and P5+1 which is also known as E3 /EU+3 looked like a big victory
when the President of US executed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action since January 2017
(International Crisis Group).
However, US decided to withdraw from the deal until U.S. Congress and the European Allies
addressed the issue by 12th May, 2018. It appears that without the European Union initiative to
make last minute understanding with US, the deal shall either expire or die a slow death. So, in
order to lessen this risk , the negotiators for UK and US , Germany and France known as E3
should stop targeting only to keep US for complying with JCPOA. They should also
formulate a means to keep Iran on board even if US withdraws from the team. As E3 continues
to discuss with US till May 12th, they should evaluate a plan B which should be implemented if
the compromise agreement is turned down by the parties or in the case when US withdraws itself
from the JCPOA. The plan can succeed if an economic cooperation package is presented by E3
to Iran with short and medium term plans.
This effort is subjected to the condition that Iran continuously complies with the JCPOA and
meaningful action is initiated for reforming the financial institutions and curtailing the tensions
in the area. In this regard, if US withdraw from the deal, it would undoubtedly be a serious blow
to the JCPOA, so proactive steps from E3 or EU shall ensure that it does not turns out to be fatal.
Iran should be warned that if it violates the deal, then it will not be allowed to continue to export
its oil. So, if Iran realizes that by doing so, the economic benefits shall disappear then it will not
violate the regulations imposed upon it (Tabatabai).

International Crisis 4
There could be mutual understanding amongst US and E3 which would indicate the willingness
to act upon the matters related to mutual concern regarding the behavior of Iran thereby warning
Iran not to violate the mutual agreement which it continues to abide by. It will help in bringing a
continuous flow of foreign capital and technology to the country. With regards to a broader
agreement with Iran to address its missile strategies and other activities, it can include the
components such as a commitment for addressing the concerns of all the parties to the JCPOA.
Once the confidence is developed regarding the implementation of JCPOA, discussions should
begin prior to the transition day of JCPOA which would be in October 2023, when Iran is to
validate the additional conventions to the NPT. US and European Union shall dismiss the nuclear
related approvals at that time.
Iran should commit for permanently withdrawing itself from manufacturing or purchasing
nuclear arms and it should be applied specially to the section T activities which are listed in
JCPOA. They are related to formulating and evaluating the nuclear explosive devices.
Continuous assessments should be done for advancement and evolution of the uranium
enrichment activities of Iran and their relevancy with the internal nuclear fuel needs of the
country ( Majidpour 14).
Since Iran proves to be a greatest challenge to the interests of US in the Middle East countries ,
so US should adopt an inclusive and cohesive strategy thereby implementing a combination of
approaches together and incorporating them with each other. The ultimate purpose should be
employment of engagement and unity amongst all the members of EU and JCPOA. It has been
observed that Iran will not coordinate with the interest of US until skillful combination of
approaches is applied by the latter .
In order to improve the relations of US and EU in terms of saving JCPOA, EU has adopted a
strategy to deal with US to weaken the strategies of JCPOA regarding the nuclear program of
Iran. It has initiated to deal the matter by itself. Unlike US, the EU views Iran as a powerful
country with good geographical capabilities and it should maintain healthy relations with Iran in
order to protect the interest of EU and other middle east countries (Hadley).

International Crisis 5
The EU believes that in the absence of JCPOA, disagreements between Iran and Washington
would increase thereby raising the possibility of other military conflicts amongst the two
countries. The representatives of EU have said that they would adopt certain measures to
safeguard the nuclear deal. The members of the EU have contacted the law making authorities to
convince the administration of US so that the deal remains in force and the complaints of
Washington can be resolved. They have declared that they shall share the concerns of US over
the matter of ballistic missile program and resolve the problems at the earliest (Bell and Miller
74).
So, they have decided to offer economic incentives to Iran and coordinate with rationalists to
work on mutually agreeable reforms regarding the post 2023 situation when some of the nuclear
powers of Iran shall be withdrawn. In case EU fails to persuade Washington and the US
sanctions are imposed on Iran, contingency plans would be executed to avoid the unilateral
sanctions of US and to safeguard the interests of all the parties to the issue (Sebenius and Singh
52).
The EU would seek for remedial actions through World Trade Organization. They could work
with China and Russia to implement the alternative international payment mechanisms which
restricts the control of US over the international fiscal systems. It will reassure Iran that the
sanctions will not be imposed until there are strong evidences to support that it had violated the
deal. It will also help in eliminating the revengeful responses from Iran to the US. In order to
take revenge from US, Iran can implement a plan to rise up its uranium enrichment (Friedman).
Despite of several allegations on Iran for violating the regulations of nuclear deal, it has been
verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had continued to fulfill the deal on its
part. It had clearly indicated that it would prefer to agree the conditions of the deal until Europe,
Russia and China could assist in serving its national security interests. So, EU3 i.e. Germany,
France and UK has also agreed to work in an unified manner to lift up the confidence of Iran
regarding the nuclear deal (Friedman).

International Crisis 6
Hence, this essay can be concluded on this note that it is upon the willingness of Iran to
implement the measures on the issues. It would greatly influence the fate of the nuclear deal and
the management of the fallout actions of the President of US. The role of EU is to demonstrate
its willingness through actions which are prerequisite for maintaining international peace and
harmony. For this, the members of the EU shall postpone the possibilities of new limits targeting
the nuclear strategies of Iran until President Trump guarantees his decision regarding nuclear
deals.

International Crisis 7
Work Cited
Adebahr , Cornelius. “EU Policy Options in Case of U.S. Withdrawal From the Iran Nuclear
Deal.” Carnegie Europe 12 April 2018. Web 17th June 2018.
https://carnegieeurope.eu/2018/04/12/eu-policy-options-in-case-of-u.s.-withdrawal-from-iran-
nuclear-deal-pub-76230
Bell, Mark S., and Nicholas L. Miller. "Questioning the effect of nuclear weapons on
conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution59.1 (2015): 74-92.4
DW News. “Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu accuses Iran of hiding nuclear weapons activity.” Web
17th June 2018. http://www.dw.com/en/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-accuses-iran-of-hiding-
nuclear-weapons-activity/a-43600856.
Friedman, Thomas L. "Iran and the Obama doctrine." The New York Times 5.4 (2015).
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/06/opinion/thomas-friedman-the-obama-doctrine-and-iran-
interview.html
Friedman, Thomas. "Obama Makes His Case on Iran Nuclear Deal." The New York
Times (2015). https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/opinion/thomas-friedman-obama-makes-
his-case-on-iran-nuclear-deal.html
Fulbright ,Alexander. “Netanyahu: Iran brazenly lied about nuclear program, has made plans to revive
it”. The Times of Israel 30 April 2018 . Web 17th June 2018. https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-
iran-lied-about-nuclear-plans-continued-to-expand-program-after-deal/
Geranmayeh , Ellie. ”Europe’s balancing act on the nuclear deal: wooing Trump without losing
Iran. “ European Council on Foreign Relations 2 May 2018. Web 17th June 2018.
https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_europes_balancing_act_on_the_nuclear_deal_trump_ira
n
Hadley , Stephen , J. “Eight Ways to Deal With Iran” 26 September 2012. Web 17th June 2018.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/09/26/eight-ways-to-deal-with-iran/

International Crisis 8
Halbfinger, David M., David E. Sanger , and Ronen Bergman.“Israel Says Secret Files Detail
Iran’s Nuclear Subterfuge”. The New York Times 30 April 2018 . Web 17th June 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/30/world/middleeast/israel-iran-nuclear-netanyahu.html
International Crisis Group .”How Europe Can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal” 2 May 2018 . Web
17th June 2018. https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-
peninsula/iran/185-how-europe-can-save-iran-nuclear-deal
Majidpour, Mehdi. "The unintended consequences of US-led sanctions on Iranian
industries." Iranian Studies 46.1 (2013): 1-15.
Sebenius, James K., and Michael K. Singh. "Is a nuclear deal with Iran possible? An analytical
framework for the Iran nuclear negotiations." International Security 37.3 (2013): 52-91.
Tabatabai, Ariane.” Preserving the Iran Nuclear Deal: Perils and Prospects”. 15 August 2017.
Web 17th June 2018. https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/preserving-iran-nuclear-
deal-perils-prospects.
Wintour , Patrick and Julian Borger .“EU rushes to arrange crisis meeting with Iran over nuclear
deal”. The Guardian 9 May 2018. Web 17th June 2018.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/09/eu-moves-to-protect-european-firms-from-us-
sanctions-on-iran