International Trade during Covid-19 in the UK: A Quantitative Analysis

This report analyzes the impact of Covid-19 on international trade in the UK using quantitative analysis of datasets sourced from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) website. It covers literature review, concepts, models, and theories related to international trade. The report also includes visualizations of data and findings drawn from the analysis.

Problem Based Report

Table of Contents

Introduction......................................................................................................................................1
Business research problem...............................................................................................................1
Literature Review covering concepts, models and theories.............................................................2
Identify dataset sourced from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) website..............................3
Quantitative analysis of the dataset using tools and techniques......................................................4
Visualisations of data drawn from the quantitative analysis...........................................................5
Findings and Conclusion drawn from the quantitative analysis of the dataset................................5
References........................................................................................................................................8

Introduction
Business problem chosen here at the time of covid-19 in the United kingdom is the
international trade in the organisations. International trade refers to the exchanging of products
and services across the global borders and territories so that the large earnings can be gained by
the organisations. These are the traits which usually demonstrate the significant enhancement of
the gross domestic product of the economy (Fusacchia, Salvatici and Winters, 2022). The
following report is based on the research problem in context of international business and also
the literature review that covers various models and concepts of international trade and also the
theories at the time of covid-19. The report also views the different types of data sets which are
sourced from the office of national statistics websites and also the quantitative analysis of data
sets which are used in different tools and techniques of research methodology. The report also
gives the insight of the graphical visualisation which is drawn from the quantitative analysis and
also the findings from the analysis of the data set as well.
Business research problem
Business research problem is based on international trade at the time of covid-19 in the
United Kingdom. During covid-19, countries have failed the global recession and also the supply
chain management disruption which has resulted in the volatility in regards with trade statistics
at higher levels in the past two years. 2022 is compared with 2018 data which has led to the
equivalent analysis. It has provided a comparison among the recent trades in the United
Kingdom and has also been estimated as a stable period. Total import of products and services
increased by 11% in 2022 because there was an increase in exports from European countries. But
there was still the problem because the imports from the non European countries were still at the
same level till December 2021. This has led to the needs and requirements of the total export of
products and services by 8.7% in 2022 (Kerr, 2020). It has also decreased in the export of
European countries as well. European countries imports are estimated higher as compared to the
non European countries in January 2022. Therefore it is problematic to determine the trade
movement extent which has illustrated on the trade disruption in the short term and also on the
supply chain and judgements for wrong done as well. There was a survey conducted and also the
business insights provided in the form of report which states that it is estimated that there are
exporters of 67% and importers of 72% who are suffering from the international trade in late
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January and early 2020 2 February due to the additional paperwork and the high cost of
transportation change along with the top challenges for traders and custom duties as well. It is
also estimated that approximately there are 64% of exporters and 61% of importers who are
suffering challenges in trade in the year 2021 from January to February. Hence international
trade is becoming the greatest business challenge for the multinational companies because of the
direct and also the indirect negative impact on the productivity of the company which has also
affected the economy of the nation. Societal impacts and technological impacts are also the parts
of negative impact of international trade due to covid-19 (Gruszczynski, 2020).
Literature Review covering concepts, models and theories
Concepts and theories along with the models are related with the international trade
which is implemented by several organisations that can fight against the negative impact of
covid-19 in terms of international trade. International trade theories hazard classification of
mainly two types such as classical country based theories is one type and modern firm based
theories is the second type. There are further types of classical country based theories which are
named as the mercantilism and comparative advantages along with the absolute advantage. The
further types of modern firm based theories are the product life cycle and global strategic rivalry
along with the countries similarity and porter's national competitive advantage (Susskind and
Vines, 2020). Absolute advantage theory is one of the theories which targets the country's
capability of introducing the goods and services in an effective and efficient manner so that they
can provide to another country in a potential manner. Trade among several countries must be
restricted and regulated as per the norms and policies of the government. This supports the entire
trade floor from one country to another naturally according to the market forces of a particular
industry. Comparative advantage theory states that if one country is introducing the goods and
services in an efficient manner then it is compared to another country's potential. This is trying to
target the differences in productivity so that the improvement areas in exchange of products and
services across the borders can be enhanced in an effective manner. Country similarity theory
focuses on the customers of one country who have the similar development stages and also have
the similar preferences of goods and services as well. This is a theory which recommends that
the company must first implement the domestic consumption and must do export as per the
needs and requirements of the customer preferences (Albertoni and Wise, 2021). Repetition of
the company and brand name is one of the most essential aspects of this particular theory that
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further helps in the purchasing process and decision making of the customers. Product life cycle
theory renders the development stages of the new product which are to be exported and imported
from one country to another according to the demands of the customers from different nations. It
generally targets the three stages which are lined up as the new product, maturing product and
standardized product. The theory of global strategic rivalry targets the different elements of the
Research and Development department along with the ownership of the intellectual property
Rights so that the economics of scale and innovative business processes can be controlled as per
the resource requirement. Porter's national competitive advantage theory is also the theory of
international trade used by the organisations which has several factors focused by various
organisations. Such factors are the local market resources and capabilities which are concerned
with the local market demand conditions and also the local suppliers as well. It has a factor of
local form characteristics also on which the organisation mainly focuses at the time of
international trade (Du and Shepotylo, 2021).
Identify dataset sourced from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) website
Period Value
2022 JAN -16159
2021 DEC -2337
2021 NOV -2586
2021 OCT -1613
2021 SEP -6258
2021 AUG -4865
2021 JUL -4666
2021 JUN -2313
2021 MAY 1603
2021 APR 24
2021 MAR 286
2021 FEB -2272
2021 JAN -3764
2020 DEC -6482
2020 NOV -4058
2020 OCT -2741
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Period Value
2020 SEP -2514
2020 AUG 1120
2020 JUL 96
2020 JUN 2700
2020 MAY 7516
2020 APR 6091
2020 MAR -367
2020 FEB -1483
2020 JAN 2981
2019 DEC 8131
2019 NOV 5485
2019 OCT -999
2019 SEP -1805
2019 AUG -927
2019 JUL 980
2019 JUN -569
2019 MAY -2381
2019 APR -5451
2019 MAR -7792
Quantitative analysis of the dataset using tools and techniques
The current report uses the entire research methodology in the context of quantitative
analysis because data collected in the current report is based on the numeric form and facts and
figures. Positivism type of research philosophy is used and the deductive type of research
approach is preferred. Moreover research choice is used for the mono method which is a single
method of quantitative analysis. Survey is used in the form of research strategy with the help of
primary data collection with having the respondents. Cross sectional form of time horizon is
chosen in the form of secondary data analysis (Baldwin and Tomiura, 2020). Techniques and
procedures in the current research are used as both primary and secondary in the form of
literature review with the help of books and internet and also the form of surveys. In this way the
entire Data collection is being conducted for the current Research report. Information is gathered
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from the sources of quarterly international trade services surveys. 50% of data is gathered from
the source and the other details are collected from the international passenger survey which is
8% of the total trade. The whole data collection from all the sources is with the help of different
books and journals and authenticated websites as well. The entire written analysis is performed
in the form of graphs and tables so that the proper numeric values and detailed information can
be represented in a proper readable format in context of international trade at the time of covid-
19 in the United Kingdom (Curran, Eckhardt and Lee, 2021)
Visualisations of data drawn from the quantitative analysis
Findings and Conclusion drawn from the quantitative analysis of the dataset
Table 1: Total imports and exports of goods increased in the three months to January 2022
Changes in the monthly and three-monthly UK trade balances, excluding precious metals, imports and exports, EU
and non-EU
Exports Imports Balance
Total trade in goods:
January 2022 vs December 2021
Value (£bn) 25.7 47.6 -21.9
Change (£bn) -2.5 4.7 -7.2
% Change -8.7 11.0
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EU:
January 2022 vs December 2021
Value (£bn) 11.6 24.1 -12.5
Change (£bn) -3.0 4.7 -7.7
% Change -20.7 24.3
Non-EU:
January 2022 vs December 2021
Value (£bn) 14.1 23.5 -9.4
Change (£bn) 0.6 0.0 0.6
% Change 4.2 0.0
Total trade in goods:
three months to January 2022 vs
three months to October 2021
Value (£bn) 81.0 132.8 -51.8
Change (£bn) 3.6 12.2 -8.7
% Change 4.6 10.1
EU:
three months to January 2022 vs
three months to October 2021
Value (£bn) 39.9 62.9 -23.0
Change (£bn) 1.2 5.8 -4.6
% Change 3.2 10.1
Non-EU:
three months to January 2022 vs
three months to October 2021
Value (£bn) 41.2 69.9 -28.7
Change (£bn) 2.3 6.4 -4.1
% Change 6.0 10.2
Source: Office for National Statistics – UK trade statistics, current prices, seasonally adjusted
As per the analysis conducted of the entire data collected on the business research problem on
international trade during covid19, quantitative analysis has the findings that there is still a need
of international trade since the last 3 to 5 years according to the representation made in the above
table. It is figured out from year to year and also from month to month. The office for national
statistics data sets has provided the insight that they will render the data accessibility which is
outlined in the government statistical service in terms of international trade in order to maintain
the accuracy and clear picture of the business issues. This can help in figuring out the good
representation of the statistics which are released in the form of spreadsheets. The current report
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is formulated and has limitations in data collection (Mena, Karatzas and Hansen, 2022). This is
because at the time of service and trade release, there was a lock down due to pandemic and that
is by gathering data is being difficult in terms of accuracy and authentication. These are the
problematic aspects of the narration of the entire report but then also the findings have been
drawn out that there is a A trade balance among the imports and exports since last five years but
has been balanced because of the covid-19 in the past three years in regards with international
trade. It has further examined that because of the high population rate organisations are facing
international trade which has resulted in the low income and sales. It is also analysed that the
January 2022 imports are higher as compared to the January 2021 imports. But this has also led
to the increment of exports by 25% during the same time period. Data determined in 2021 has a
strong impact on the corona virus pandemic as compared to the data evaluated in 2018
international trade. The reason behind this is that in 2018 there was an increase of imports by
15.6% but exports felled by 10.4%. All such data is assessed in the findings of the current
business research problem in terms of international trade (Kazunobu and Hiroshi, 2020).
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References
Books and Journals
Albertoni, N. and Wise, C., 2021. International trade norms in the age of Covid-19 nationalism
on the rise?. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, 14(1), pp.41-66.
Baldwin, R. and Tomiura, E., 2020. Thinking ahead about the trade impact of COVID-
19. Economics in the Time of COVID-19, 59, pp.59-71.
Curran, L., Eckhardt, J. and Lee, J., 2021. The trade policy response to COVID-19 and its
implications for international business. critical perspectives on international business.
Du, J. and Shepotylo, O., 2021. UK trade in the time of COVID‐19: A review. The World
Economy.
Fusacchia, I., Salvatici, L. and Winters, L.A., 2022. The consequences of the Trade and
Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s international trade. Oxford Review of Economic
Policy, 38(1), pp.27-49.
Gruszczynski, L., 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic and international trade: Temporary turbulence
or paradigm shift?. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), pp.337-342.
Kazunobu, H. and Hiroshi, M., 2020. Impacts of covid-19 on international trade: evidence from
the first quarter of 2020. IDE, (791).
Kerr, W.A., 2020. The COVID‐19 pandemic and agriculture: Short‐and long‐run implications for
international trade relations. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue
canadienne d'agroeconomie, 68(2), pp.225-229.
Mena, C., Karatzas, A. and Hansen, C., 2022. International trade resilience and the Covid-19
pandemic. Journal of Business Research, 138, pp.77-91.
Susskind, D. and Vines, D., 2020. The economics of the COVID-19 pandemic: an
assessment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), pp.S1-S13.
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