Misconceptions of Crime Rates in Australia

This research explores the misconceptions surrounding crime rates in Australia and how public perception differs from actual statistics. It discusses the factors that contribute to these misconceptions, such as age and education level, and the implications for policy-making. The study emphasizes the need for careful consideration of public perception when formulating policies related to crime.

Introduction
The public perceives crime to be on the rise. However, the observable statistical trends
with regards to violent crime offer a different story. Since the 1990, Homicide has steeply
declined by approximately 10% in Australia. Armed robbery on the other hand has declined by a
quarter of the rate that it used to be propagated in the past. However, the rates of sexual and
reported assaults have gone up by 25 and 35% consecutively. The increase in recorded assault
has been created by the existence of aggravated assault1. The increased rates of sexual and
general assault were higher on kids who were less than 16 years old, and the rate of increase
within this age set was almost double that of any other age set. Alterations in the size of
population among youthful adults couldn’t offer a sustainable explanation as to increased trends
in reported crime.
I strongly believe that Australians have never experienced less violence than they do
today. As much as people’s perception holds a differing view, change indicators associated with
reporting of crime offer a better insight into how propagation of violence has been mitigated in
Australia. The increased rate of recorded crime can be associated with the increase in reporting
of criminal undertakings by the society to authorities, and self-reported victimization2. Data on
victimization offers the idea that there has been a reduced rate of sexual assault3. However, since
the rate of reporting to police has increased, this can elude that the rate of the related crime has
consequently increased. I would argue that the reason why crime and violence in Australia has
reduced is due to the increased public awareness that has been created by various stakeholders.
Over the years, the public has been educated on how identify and report sexual and physical
violence. This has enabled people to become more active in reporting the violence incidences,
thereby, making the society much safer. The downside of this is that active reporting tends to
create the illusion that crime is on the rise. Increased public concern on criminal activities
definitely determines how far people will think of engaging in crime. However, there could be
the absence of inconsistency between the perception of crime/victimization and the actual
happenings on the ground. This research will reinforce the aforementioned facts through an
analysis of statistical data from the police and institutions that monitor crime levels in Australia.
The public’s perception
When the public perceives crime levels to be on the rise, this directly influences the
process of policy formulation, judicial sentencing, and law enforcement. However, it is common
to find that there is a huge discrepancy between what people perceive, and the actual rate of
victimization. Based on the estimates of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008), There was a
1 C. Jones, D. Weatherburn Public confidence in the NSW criminal justice system: (A survey of the NSW
public. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology 2010) 506.
2 L. Roberts, D. Indermaur. What Australians think about crime and justice: Results from the 2007 Survey
of Social Attitudes. (Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology; 2009).
3 R. Rosenfeld. Crime is the problem: Homicide, acquisitive crime, and economic conditions. (Journal of
Quantitative Criminology. 2009) 306.

decreased rate of reporting on robbery, vehicle theft, and robbery. However, within the same
period of time, there was an increase in the rate of reported crime that revolved around extortion,
and kidnapping4. The aggregate trend of crime in this specific period indicates a drop in general
rate of crime occurrence5.
Irrespective of the decline as based on the statistical data from police and survey on rates
of crime victimization, it is common to find that the public always hold a differing opinion.
Research in Canada and US indicate that the public will always perceive crime to be on the rise
as much as there is a huge decline on the same. The misconceptions are not only limited to
Canada and the US, but this has also been observed to happen in Australia.
The level of misconception on rates of criminal activities is high amongst less educated
persons, women, and the elderly. On the other hand, male individuals and the youth actually
understand the actual levels of crime. Truman, (2011), argue that two theories can be adopted in
the process of analyzing the perceptions of crime by the society. The Instrumental/experience
theory argues that the fear of crime and perceptions that result forthwith stem from actual
experiences that revolve around crime and victimization. The Expressive theory addresses the
social concern as it pertains to the cultural definition of criminal undertakings, conditions that
enable the occurrence of crime, and relations/social change. All these factors are independent of
the occurrence of the actual crime6.
Expressive variables normally contribute to a higher negative perception unlike the real
crime or the perceived possibility of victimization. The variables that contribute to such
encompass the feelings of people on the state of the economy, trust levels that are shared among
society members, and the anxiety that older people have about their kids. There are suggestions
that individuals are better placed in being able to estimate the direction and degree of crime
levels. This is highly dependent upon the locale where crime is bound to occur, and how relevant
crime may be to them.
People are exposed to thinking that there are higher rates of crime within a nation in
contrast to their city or neighborhood. Additionally, it’s possible that people may adopt the
perception that crime is high in their locale, but they end up attributing it to other areas that are
less familiar. This has also been evidenced by the report on National Survey of Community
Satisfaction with Policing (NSCSP)7. A survey was undertaken in Australia between 2007 and
2009 in which 37,000 respondents were interviewed by the NSCSP. Results from the research
indicate that the level of perception on criminal undertakings take a deep once the scope or
region in which crime occurs is consequently reduced from state to neighborhood. More than
4 A. Tseloni, et al. Exploring the international decline in crime rates. (European Journal of Criminology.
2010) Sep;7(5):375.
5 PK Narayan, R Smyth*. Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: (Evidence
from Granger causality tests. Applied Economics. 2004) Oct 10;36(18):95.
6Directory of Family, Domestic, and Sexual Violence Statistics, (2018)
7 M. Tonry. Why crime rates are falling throughout the Western world. (Crime and justice. 2014) Sep
1;43(1):56.

half of the research participants believed that the occurrence of property crime, violence, and
illicit drug consumption was much higher at the state level rather than within their
neighborhoods8. The public believed that there has been a general decline in the rate of crime and
victimization from the year 2005 just like indicated in police reports9.
A research into the topic also indicated that the same misconception also existed in
Britain. The issue was greatly attributed to juveniles. About 75% of the respondents believe that
criminal activities that are undertaken by previous juvenile offenders are on the rise. However,
police records painted a very different picture of this fact. Additionally, research respondents
overestimated the number of juveniles who were involved in criminal undertakings, and the
approximate number of violent crimes10.
AuSSA (Australian Survey of Social Attitudes)
AuSSA conducts surveys by sending out mails for survey that are administered by Center
for Social Research, which is located at the Australian National University. Mailing was done to
approximately 20,000 respondents through the years between 2003 and 2007. 8200 respondents
provided feedback that could be used for analysis purposes. This provided a response rate of
42%. Five main questions were asked with regard to perception on crime.
 Alteration in crime level over the previous three years
 Documented crime which includes threatened or actual violence.
 Number of people who were arrested and taken to jail
 Number of male individuals who ended up in jail
 Number of male’s charge for engaging in home burglary and eventually sent to
prison.
Results of the research indicate that 39% of respondents believe that crime has been on
the spike over the past two years. 24% holds the view that there has been a slight increase in
crime in the same period, and 26% believe that there has been no reduction nor increase of
crime. 8% did have any idea while 3% of held the view that there was a slight decrease11.
8 JL.Truman Criminal victimization (2009). (DIANE Publishing; 2011).
9 M. Flood, B. Pease. Factors influencing attitudes to violence against women. (Trauma, Violence, &
Abuse. 2009) Apr;10(2):122.
10 J. Ratcliffe, ed., 2009. Strategic thinking in criminal intelligence. Federation Press
11 B. Davis, K. Dossetor. (Mis) perceptions of crime in Australia. (Trends and Issues in Crime and
Criminal Justice 2010)1.

Figure 1: View of crime trends in Australia
Source: Roberts & Indermaur 2009
Roberts & Indermaur 2009 argue that 89.4% of the respondents have the incorrect idea of
the levels of crime. This was made evident by the fact that approximately 4 out of 10 of the
interviewed respondents made an error during the assessment. Results of the research indicate
that people have a wrong perception on crime trends. The largest proportion of respondents,
24%, believed that 80% of criminal undertakings were associated with violence. On the other
hand, 17% of respondents argued that violence contributed to 50% of criminal undertakings.
12% of the respondents view that 90% of criminal incidences are associated with violence.
However actual statistics held a different view since violent crimes accounted for less than 11%
of all crimes that had occurred12.
Only 4% of respondents made an accurate approximation, while 93% were wrong. Based
on police and judicial statistics, criminals who were jailed for involvement in violent crime
accounted for approximately 90-100%. This was correctly estimated by only 2% of the
respondents. Only a slight proportion of the respondents who were interviewed provided the
right estimations. In the case of inmates, 24% of respondents proposed that the rate of
imprisonment stood between 0-10%. 18% proposed that 11-20% of males were convicted for
assault. 17% perceive that incarceration rates have risen to between 45-50%. Actual figures show
12 J. Ratcliffe, editor. Strategic thinking in criminal intelligence. (Federation Press; 2009) May 26.

that 30% of males were convicted and imprisoned for assault. The correct estimation was made
by only 16% of the interviewed participants13. Roberts & Indermaur 2009 argue that the rate of
imprisonment stands between 35-45% and this was only perceived by 8% of the respondents.
These results are an indication that there is a high incidence of misinterpreting crime, thereby,
creating the idea that crime is high within the Australian society, a stand that is completely
wrong.
Conclusion
Findings of this research indicate that crime is on a record low in Australia as much as
people may pre-conceive that the rates are actually high. The significant that contribute to the
huge misconception include age, post-secondary education, and preferences of entertainment.
Old people are always more likely to perceive that crime is on the rise. On the other hand, males
are usually more likely to approximate correctly the levels of crime rates. Education allows
people to perceive crime more accurately since it exposes a person to information. The general
trend of crime in Australia is on a huge decline. However, people misconceptions may play a
huge role in determining how crime is actually viewed in the county. Therefore, the process of
formulating policies should be undertaken with outmost care to avoid and instance where
decisions are based on the misconceptions of the public.
Bibliography
Books
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13 Foundation for a National Data Collection and Reporting Framework for family, domestic and sexual
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Flood M, Pease B. Factors influencing attitudes to violence against women. (Trauma, Violence, & Abuse.
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Social Attitudes. (Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology; 2009).
Tseloni A, Mailley J, Farrell G, Tilley N. Exploring the international decline in crime rates. (European
Journal of Criminology. 2010) Sep;7(5):375-94.
Tonry M. Why crime rates are falling throughout the Western world. (Crime and justice. 2014) Sep
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Truman JL. Criminal victimization (2009). (DIANE Publishing; 2011).
Official Statistics
Directory of Family, Domestic, and Sexual Violence Statistics, (2018)
Foundation for a National Data Collection and Reporting Framework for family, domestic and sexual
violence, (2014)