Investment Management Portfolio Analysis and Performance
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This report analyses a moderate risk portfolio consisting of equity shares, bonds, and marketable securities. It includes the selection of an appropriate benchmark, historical performance, and financial calculations to support decisions and analysis.
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MSIN0082 Investment Management
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Contents INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................3 MAIN BODY...................................................................................................................................3 Requirement and Preferences in long and short term:............................................................3 PortfolioObjectives&InvestmentStrategy:.........................................................................3 General RisksthatmayaffectthePerformanceofthePortfolio:...........................................4 Portfolio composition and qualitative and quantitative reasons for composition (Class of Assets and Characteristics of Security)..................................................................................4 SelectionandConstructionofanAppropriateBenchmark:...................................................5 Portfolio’sHistoricalPerformance,bothAbsoluteandRelativetotheBenchmark:.............6 Use&ExplanationofFinancialCalculationstoSupportDecisions&Analysis:.................6 PredictedFutureReturns:.......................................................................................................7 ReasonstoExpectFuturePerformancetoRemaintheSame,BeWorseorImprove:..........7 CONCLUSION................................................................................................................................8 REFERENCES................................................................................................................................9
INTRODUCTION Portfolio is the bundle of various stocks in the form of equity, preference, bonds or other assets hold by an investor for future returnsBektic, 2018). The investor can be individuals, corporates, firms etc. Investment management simply means assessing the performance of stocks for certain period and accordingly modifying them in terms of sales or purchase that ultimately favours the entity in terms of returns. It is important for the investor to give a close watch on their investment fluctuations so that any downward deviation can be considered and immediate action can be taken. In this report a portfolio has been constructed on the basis of nature or investor which is conservative approach. The portfolio taken is a moderate risk portfolio which involves 50% equity shares, 40% of bonds, and remaining 10% are invested in marketable securities and commercial paper. In this report performance of portfolio has been analysed considering the risk and return the investor gets from such portfolio in the long run. In this report the investment made in portfolio has been analysed historically and along with this different models have also been applied to judge the portfolio. At the downside of this report CAPM has been applied in order to evaluate the expected return on the stocks, considering beta, risk free rate and so on. MAIN BODY Requirement and Preferences in long and short term: The requirement of the client is to invest around is £ 2 Million in the stock market as he is in legal profession and expected to return after 10 years from such service. Out of £ 2.0 million he inherited £ 1.0 million and remaining funds the client holds in the form of bank balance in different saving accounts. He also owns 2-bedroom hall kitchen in central London which has a valuation of around £ 1.50 Million. Currently he does have any investment in the form of security in stock market and does not have knowledge about investing in the market. However, he himself claims to be a potentially adventurous investor having little professional experience of financial markets. His preference is to invest the funds for the period of 10 years in the stock market so that such funds gets multiplied over such period when he actually gets retire as a corporate lawyer. Further he slightly less risk averse with respect to the investment to be made but he does not want a regular flow of income from the portfolio he has invested the funds. PortfolioObjectives&InvestmentStrategy: Theobjectiveofportfolioistogeneratewealthforitsinvestorsthroughcapital appreciation in the security. These securities can be Equity shares, preference shares and bonds, mutual funds and cash equivalent(Clermont, 2020). There is different investment strategy in the market which can be followed depending upon the ability of risk taken. The strategies adopted by the investor can be passive and active strategy, Growth investing strategy in short and long term investment, value investing strategy, income investing strategy and dividend growth
investing. These strategies are adopted by investors on the basis of risk and return and portfolio they hold. In the given case the strategy adopted should be of growth strategy as the investor is less risk averse and want to invest in stock for the period of 10 years and does not want regular flow of income. Therefore, the strategy would be growth strategy in which the amount directly invested for 10 years. General RisksthatmayaffectthePerformanceofthePortfolio: Risk can be divided into various types which affects the performance of portfolio such market risk which is related to changes in market, Risk of inflation which affect the purchasing power of consumer, Mortality risk which directly related to survival and longitivity, Changes in the interest rate which creates the risk, and risk of liquidity which is again important part of investment planning(Goharian and Khatami, 2019). In the given circumstance the portfolio consists of FMCG sector companies that is marks and spencer’s, Sainsbury, Tesco and Coca cola group and such companies are having large market cap. Such equity does not vary frequently which is important is the moderate risk profile investment. Further in the portfolio funds are diversified towards mutual funds, bonds so that consistent return has been arrived over the period of 10 years. Further it also compensated the risk associated with 50% of investment made in equity. Portfolio composition and qualitative and quantitative reasons for composition (Class of Assets and Characteristics of Security) The composition of portfolio would be as under: - Proposed Moderate Risk Portfolio (Conservative Portfolio) CompanyType of Investment Unit s Purchase Price(Average) Amount Invested CadburryEquity3667157.3576819.1 SainsburyEquity1192248.7296450.4 TescoEquity399275.35109864.65 VanguardS&P500UCITS ETFETF21074.5815642.5 Dodge and CosMutual funds45253.124001.2 Fidelity SpecialMutual Funds11743.15042.7 Legal and General (3Y)Bonds2098280.23587922.54 UK Government Bonds (5Y)Bonds220296.79213131.58 Marketable SecuritiesCash Equivalents81243.49 Commercial PapersCash Equivalents118925.7 Total Investment2000000 Forecasted earnings of the amount invested.
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Proposed Moderate Risk Portfolio (Conservative Portfolio) Company Type of Investment Amount invested Rate (%)Returns Total Amount CadburyEquity576819.18.87%51163.854627982.9542 SainsburyEquity296450.412.29%36433.754332884.1542 TescoEquity109864.6511%12085.112121949.7615 Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETFETF15642.58.87%1387.489817029.98975 Dodge and CosMutual funds24001.215.45%3708.185427709.3854 Fidelity SpecialMutual Funds5042.713.51%681.268775723.96877 Legal and General (3Y)Bonds587922.5410.20%59968.099647890.6391 UK Government Bonds (5Y)Bonds213131.581.22%2600.2053215731.7853 Marketable SecuritiesCash Equivalents81243.498.23%6686.339287929.82923 Commercial PapersCash Equivalents118925.73.12%3710.4818122636.1818 Total2000000 Total Expected Earnings2207468.649 The Formula of Calculating the Future Returns will be as under: - Future Earnings = Amount Invested * (1 + R)/ 100 + Amount invested The composition of the portfolio includes mixture of Equity, mutual funds, bonds and Cash equivalents in the form of marketable securities and commercial papers. The advantage of diversified portfolio is that the risk and return of different securities will get compensated from each other and the net result will be net profit. Qualitative analysis means taking deep study of the stock which is under consideration by ensuring its performance over the years, reason for downfall etc. Such factors are taken into consideration by analysing the historical performance of above stock for the period between 1/1/2019 to 31/01/2022 so that movement in equity can be measured appropriately before making the investments and quantitative aspects deals with quantity of units a particular stock must be acquired in order to get desired return with considerable risk. Quantity in the above stock has been taken by analysing the risk associated with each stock such as standard deviation, beta etc. The characteristics of the above security can be as under: - Equity Shares:Equity is the permanent capital of a business concern which does not have any maturity period. The holders of equity shares are entitled for return by way of equity dividend and capital appreciation. Further if the company would close down then they have the right to claim their share from the assets of organisation(Brown, 2019).
Mutual Fund:Mutual funds are having low expense ratio that why they are always desirable. However, their performance is good in terms of equity shares and preference shares as they are regulated or governed by professional having different background. Most of the investor invest in the mutual funds by way of retirement planning as they provide consistent returns over the period of time. Mutual fund Performs well as they are followed by good investment strategy. Bonds:The par value of bonds is $1000 generally but they have much higher value in case of government bonds. The interest payment received on such bonds will be monthly, quarterly, half yearly etc. It generally provides a constant interest rate over the life of bond and their maturity varies between 1 to 30 years. Commercial Paper:It is the short term money tool having a fix maturity. It is considered as the evidence in case of unsecured debt. Commercial paper is subscribed at the discount rate and they are issued with interest bearing claim. Marketable Securities:The maturity period of commercial paper is normally for the period of 1 year. They have an ability of being acquired or sold on public stock exchanges. Their nature is liquid and having a strong secondary market as it provides accurate price for their investors or holders. SelectionandConstructionofanAppropriateBenchmark: Benchmark is the measure which is used by various investors including individuals and corporates in order to analyse the risk and return on the desired portfolio. The basic intension is to analyse the performance of stock over the period of time. The standard can be S&P 500, BarclaysUSaggregatebondindexetc.Thesebenchmarkcanbeusedtoamylasethe performance of stock over the given period(Dhankar, 2019). The selection of benchmark based on the class of asset which the portfolio matches to appropriate benchmark. The example can be in S&P 500 which consist of large corporate of US, then it will be taken as benchmark of Blue- chip companies who market capitalization is higher as compare to others. Portfolio’sHistoricalPerformance,bothAbsoluteandRelativetotheBenchmark: Portfolio historical performance can be calculated by analysing the past trends in the profits. Absolute return simply means what returned the portfolio get over the period of time whereas relative return is the difference between market performance of security and absolute return which is gauged by index and benchmark of the relevant security. The another name of relative return is alpha. The historical performance of the equity has been considered for the period between 1/01/2019 to 31/01/2022 and the overall conclusion has been drawn that Sainsbury stock has some fluctuation during such period but it is consistently rising and there is no sharp downfall reflecting in such period. Further other stock such as Tesco, Cadbury, and Bakkavor is consistent over such period which is beneficial when portfolio is of moderate nature and hold for
the longer period. The Bench mark rate has been assumed to be 2.50 % of index of London stock exchange and when we compare the return of these stock with benchmark rate then performance of such stock is considered to be better from the benchmark set in the industry. Use&ExplanationofFinancialCalculationstoSupportDecisions&Analysis: Different models can be used in evaluating the performance of the return such as Gordens dividend growth model, Capital asset pricing model etc. These models help the investor to evaluate the performance of their portfolio theoretically. Further in order to calculate the return various tools could be used such as holding period return, Sharpe ratio, treynor ratio, Jensen’s alpha etc.(Subedi, 2020). The financial calculation in detailed form has been carrying out in excel which includes calculation of standard deviation, variance, correlation, covariance and beta of all the above equity in order to evaluate the performance of stock in historical period. The market rate of return of in all the above stock is 5%, 8%, 9% and 5% respectively which ensure that they will perform consistently in future also. On the basis of beta calculated the analysis can be drawn that Cadbury stock is risky having beta of 2.33, whereas the beta of other equity is .65, .19 and .02 respectively calculated in excel. In terms of standard deviation, the risk of Tesco is higher which is 13.12 however it can be compensated in such diversified portfolio in the long run. The expected return is calculated using capital asset pricing model in order to evaluated the performance of stock as under: - Capital Asset Pricing Model is used to study the systematic risk and expected return for each asset. It is known for computation of cost of equity. It is calculated by taking beta, risk free rate of return and market risk for each security. The formula of Capital Asset Pricing model for the calculation of Beta is: - = Rf + B (Rm – Rf) Therefore, the expected return on each stock will be: - Sainsbury = .0084 + .650 (.05-.0084) =3.54% Tesco = .0225 + .1933 (.08 - .0225) = 3.36% Cadbury = .0425 + 2.33 (.09 - .0425) = 15.32% Bakkavor = .0084 + .02 (.05 - .0084) = .93% The risk-Free return has been taken from online sources and market rate of return & beta has been calculated in excel. The beta for Sainsbury is .650, Tesco is .1933, Cadbury is 2.33 and bakkavor is .02 respectively and formula used to calculate beta is Covariance / Variance. PredictedFutureReturns: The future returns could be bases on the risk client need to take as investment in equity provides higher returns as compare to debt. In debt the return is in the form of interest for the life of debt. If such pound 2.0 million are invested in various security’s such as equity, debts, and mutual funds then predicted returns can be positive. However, expected return cannot be
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guaranteed as market is volatile in nature and affected by various internal and external factors. The basic formula of predicted the return can be multiplying weight of portfolio with expected return on each security. On the basis of historical performance of stock, bonds and mutual funds it has been evaluated that at least 12% return will get by the investor if such diversified portfolio has been maintained for longer period by the investor. The future returns are predicted on the basis of historical performance and anticipated growth rate also considering the risk and return associated with the portfolio. ReasonstoExpectFuturePerformancetoRemaintheSame,BeWorseorImprove: The prices of stock are directly affected by supply and demand relation in the short period of time and their balance is determined by market attitudes. Due to high volatility in market the investor does not change their decision on every second. The reason for such fluctuation can be that multiple brokers trades outside the working hours and such trade has a complete potential to change the price of respective share considerably and it does not matter that where such trading has been taken place(Dinh and Yapur, 2018). When we compare the performance of equity the result obtained that there may be deviation of 2% due to market volatility. However, the investment in mutual fund and bonds growth with time by the rate of 6% annually and the expected portfolio of investor will reach to Pound 2200000 approx. and his desired return is also justified thoroughly. The performance of stock can be judges as improving over the period of 10 years.
CONCLUSION In this report portfolio and its significance has been judged considering the facts which are availablein thecase study. Thisreportshowcasethe investmentstrategies,selectionof appropriate security, and how they provide returns in the long and short term. Further this report highlights the step must be taken by the investor before investing in securities and he must diversify the risk taking the appropriate decision. This report mainly is the portfolio report consist of stocks by way of equity, mutual fund, bonds, marketable securities and commercial paper. It is a diversified portfolio of moderate nature risk as the investor is less risk averse and wants to invest the money for growth purpose for the fix period of 10 years. Further in this report the historical performance of these stock has been analysed for the period of 3 years in case of equity beginning from 1/1/2019 to 31/01/2022. Further in this report financial calculation has been carried out in excel with respect of daily and annualized return on the stock. At the end of this report future performance of these stock has been measured so that total worth of such portfolio has been estimated. Further bonds investments assure the investor the fix rate of interest till its maturity and on maturity lump sum amount has been gathered along with interest without taking any risk. The performance of the stock has been evaluated by calculating expected return on shares, bonds and mutual funds. Such return will provide the measure for past performance and future performance of the stock under consideration.
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