Judgmental Forecasting: Space Mission Analogies and Predictions

This report undertakes a detailed analysis of structural analogies between various spacecraft missions, specifically those aimed at exploring other planets and searching for evidence of life. The core objective is to apply judgmental forecasting techniques by comparing missions like NASA's Phoenix, ISRO's Chandrayaan-1, and NASA's Dawn. The report provides a comparative analysis of the missions, including their objectives, costs, outcomes, and key findings. Each analogy includes a description of the mission, a comparison of similarities and differences, and a similarity rating. The report presents outcomes in the form of questionnaires to evaluate the extent to which the missions achieved their objectives, and whether water or close-up images were captured. The analysis covers findings on landscapes, weather, climate cycles, and surface chemistry. The report highlights the successes and challenges of each mission, including the discovery of water ice on Mars by Phoenix and on the Moon by Chandrayaan-1, and the study of Ceres and Vesta by Dawn. The report concludes by using the analogies to inform a forecast, drawing on the data and insights gained from the comparative analysis of these missions.

Judgmental Forecasting with
Structured Analogies

TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1
MAIN BODY..................................................................................................................................1
Your Analogies............................................................................................................................1
Your OWN Forecast....................................................................................................................7
Questionnaire...............................................................................................................................9
CONLUSION..................................................................................................................................9
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................10

INTRODUCTION
The current report analyses structural analogies showing similarities and dissimilarities
between certain spacecraft mission which touches another planet aimed to find evidence of life,
past and present in any planet or space bodies. So, structural analogies will be done to find
similarities and difference between various mission by NASA or ISRO or any other space stations
like that of Phoenix, Chandrayaan-1 and Dawn with the prospect space probe so that forecasting
could be done.
MAIN BODY
Your Analogies
Analogy 1 Phoenix
Description Phoenix was the space probe which was launched by NASA in
year 2008 landed on Mars in search of microbial life on planet
Mars.
Similarities and differences Similarity- both of them were of robotic spacecraft which
launched in space to find life of outer space
Difference- the cost of Phoenix was USD $386 million while
that of space probe will be between £250m to £300m.
Source- Media Similarity rating ___9___
OUTCOME:
Q1. To what extend think objectives have been
achieved?
a.0% - 20% [ ] b. 21% - 40% [ ] c. 41% - 60%
[ ]
d.61% - 80% [ ] e. 81% - 100% [ ]
Q2. Was water found?
Yes [ ] No [ ]
Q3. Have close-up images been captured?
Yes [] No [ ]
Description:
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Figure 1: Panorama of rocks near the Phoenix Lander
(August 19, 2008)
(Source: Phoenix, 2018)

The following picture was taken by Phoenix in year 2008 confirming that water in form
of ice is present on Mars as predicated in 2002. The aim of Phoenix was to find out microbial life
on Mars with history of water as well (Phoenix, 2018). Total cost for the mission in year 2008
was around US $386 million and this was also involving the cost of launch on spacecraft. This
program was operated by University of Arizona and NASA with also other joint collaboration of
universities from around the world like that of Denmark, Germany, USA, Canada, UK and
Switzerland as well. Phoenix mission was one out of 7 attempts which was made to land on Mars
polar region which was successful on August 2008.
The objective of Phoenix was
clear which includes study the
history of water and all its phase
and searching evidence of
habitable or biological potential
as well.
So, based on this mission, there were certain results that were generated like that of:
Landscape- All the rocks which are present on Mars are small with a diameter of 2-3 and 20-
50cm deep as well (Kounaves and Weber, 2014). The water in form of ice is below the surface of
polygons about 8 inches deep.
Weather- The snow of Mars will be forming in part of cirrus clouds at level of -65° C that is
composing water ice and not carbon dioxide ice as for this ice, level must be of about -120° C.
The ice will get collected at surface of Mars after one year of this formation while the speed of
wind is 11-58 Km per hour with average of 36 Km (Phoenix Mars Lander Overview, 2018).
during the time of mission of Phoenix there were certain temperature measured like the highest
was -19.6° and lowest was -97.7° C.
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Figure 2: Phoenix mission
(Source: Phoenix Mars Lander Overview, 2018)

Climate cycle- After the presence of water, ice was confirmed on land of Mars in recent past it
was noted that Mars is having warmer and wetter climate. Calcium carbonate was also found on
land of Mars which was forming evidence of wet and damp geological past of planet.
Surface chemistry- Soil of planet is moderately alkaline with the pH level of 7.7 ±0.5 and the
salinity is also moderate (Phoenix Mars Lander Overview, 2018). Other than Calcium carbonate,
there was presence of samples like that of magnesium, bicarbonate, potassium, calcium, sodium,
sulphate and chloride. Providing the formulation of soil, which is containing soluble sulphate
(SO3) lowest point of 1.1%.
The Phoenix which was launched on 2007 by Delta 2 and landed on 2008 on Vastitas
Borealis arctic plains of Mars was the 1st mission that was initiated by NASA at low cost. It was
launched to analyse the soil sample which was then collected by robotic arm as it was carrying
portable laboratory and small ovens as well. Phoenix was also having camera that was located on
2 meter (6.6 foot) using high resolution of the landing geological. One of the new images which
were transmitted by NASA Mars reconnaissance was showing many signs of ice (Toner, Catling
and Light, 2014). Phoenix found out baked, tasted, lander dug, scooped, sniffed and Mars soil
with the presence of water ice on its surface as well.
Analogy 2: Chandrayaan-1
Description Chandrayaan-1 was the first lunar probe
for ISRO launched on October 2008 and
operated till 2009. That was aimed at
collecting evidence of life on land of
Moon with presence of water in whichever
form.
Similarities and differences Similarities- the objective were same to
find out life or topography of other planet.
Difference- the cost budget was different
from each other.
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Source ______Media _______ Similarity rating ___7___ OUTCOME:
Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?
a.0% - 20% [ ] b. 21% - 40% [ ] c. 41% - 60% [ ]
d.61% - 80% [ ] e. 81% - 100% [ ]
Q2. Was water found?
Yes [ ] No [ ]
Q3. Have close-up images been captured?
Yes [] No [ ]
Description:
Chandrayaan-1 was launched on
October 2008 with an aim of mapping
topography of Moon, providing essential
mineral of the lunar surface and was completely
successful on 2009. It as lunched by ISRO by
using PSLV-XL rocket making evident of
presence of lunar water on surface of Moon
which was the biggest achievement of decade.
The cost estimated for this lunar project was $56 million it was having remote sensing lunar
satellite, near infrared, hard and soft x-ray. It was carrying about 5 ISRO payloads with that of
ESA, NASA and Bulgarian Aerospace agency (Chandrayaan-1, 2018). This Chandrayaan-1 was
aimed at having survey of lunar surface so that it is having complete information of chemical and
3D topography. This mission was successful in all its aspects with including the discovery of
molecules of water into the soil of Moon but then Chandrayaan-1 was found missing in space.
The main reason behind it was many technical issue like that of poor thermal shielding and star
sensor this was due to the technical failure it was not able to send radio signals on August 2009
(Vorburger, Dhanya and Asamura, 2017). But till this time, Chandrayaan-1 was able to achieve
about 95% of its aims and objective during the 2 year operation period. Then on 2nd July 2016,
NASA found Chandrayaan-1 which was after 7 years of its missing into its lunar orbit through
use of ground based radar system.
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Figure 3: Chandrayaan-1
(Source: Chandrayaan-1, 2018)

Chandrayaan-1 is regarded as first mission of ISRO to Moon which was launched from
Sriharikota and this spacecraft was about the height of 100km from the moon (Significant
Discovery - Chandrayaan-1 found water on the moon, 2018). The main objective to this was to
observe mineralogical, photo-geologic and chemical of moon which is regarded as lunar surface.
After primary mission was accomplished the objective was raised to 200km from 100 km during
year 2009 and thus spacecraft made around
moon at least 3400 orbits. There was one of
the greatest discoveries of all time through
this mission of ISRO like finding water on
surface of moon. This was making clear
directions towards plantation of vegetables
and fruits in the future coming year on only
satellite of earth and was achievement in
planetary science (Dhanya, Holmström and
Wurz, 2017). Thus, the scientist remarked
that water existed on moon for about 40
years ago evidence from sample of rock which
was found by astronauts of Apollo.
Like from the image given which was
taken by Chandrayaan-1 showing water in blue colour on infrared reflectance. Both the images
are showing creation of young lunar crater on one side of moon that is having its face towards
earth. From these images which shows the hollow surface of moon with hydroxyl- rich materials
and water as found on surface of moon.
Analogy 3 Dawn
Description Dawn was launched in September 2007
for planned 9 years mission by NASA to
study proto-planets of asteroid belt which
are Ceres and Vesta. Then having another
target of dwarf planet which is currently in
orbit.
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Figure 4: Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper
(Source: Significant Discovery - Chandrayaan-1 found water on
the moon, 2018)

Similarities and differences Similarities- both are space probe
launched by NASA.
Difference- the cost or budget is different
Source _______Media______ Similarity rating ___7___ OUTCOME:
Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?
a.0% - 20% [ ] b. 21% - 40% [ ] c. 41% - 60% [ ]
d.61% - 80% [ ] e. 81% - 100% [ ]
Q2. Was water found?
Yes [] No [ ]
Q3. Have close-up images been captured?
Yes [] No [ ]
Description:
Dawn was launched by NASA on September 2007 for the planned period of 9 years in
order to study 2 proto-planets of asteroid belt which are Ceres and Vesta. The spacecraft is
presently in orbit for another target of dwarf planet Ceres
as it entered in Ceres orbit on July 2011. It was one of its
kind which is examining two different space bodies and
then visiting the dwarf planet as well. Thus, it is having
multi-targeted orbiter. It was scheduled for a period of 9
years from 2007 on its first target it entered orbit of Vesta
on July 2011 then on March 6 2015 to orbit of Ceres.
Then after this, NASA decided to extent the mission on
19th October 2017 till the time its Hydrazine fuel is
finished which is most probably till second half of 2018.
As the latest interpretation made on 2018 June the Dawn
is orbiting in Ceres which is regarded to as final round of
6
Figure 5: Dawn mission patch
(Source: Dawn at a Glance, 2018)

the mission that undertook in September 2007 (Dawn at a Glance, 2018). This mission is
managed and operated by Jet Propulsion Laboratory with the collaboration of partners like those
of Germany, Netherlands, Italy and France (Ciarniello, De Sanctis and Zambon, 2017). Dawn
mission was one of its kind which was using ion propulsion so that it could enter and leave in the
orbit with many other celestial bodies. The Dawn successfully found the building blocks of life
on the planet Ceres with carbon contained molecules been found as well. It was also included by
the research that these molecules not been deposited by any other object hitting or attacking the
planet rather are home gowned in Ceres. In order to discover molecules in Ceres and Vesta,
Dawn was carrying infrared mapping spectrometer and visible lights as well and then it discovers
water ice under the surface of Ceres. So, after this mission, there were certain discoveries which
were made like Ceres is orbiting around the sun in 3 times that is the distance of sun to earth that
is 600 miles across. Then, in the present era, it will be remaining in orbit of Ceres till the time
NASA is finding any other third object from this mission.
From the image at right which is depicting photo taken from 5200km at the time of
Dawn’s rotation on July 2011 which regard
Vesta as 2nd most enormous space body. This
research at Vesta was started at 2011 and lasted
till September 2012 (Williams Buczkowski and
Scully, 2017). There was another thing which
was noticed by Dawn, the dark material that is
all across surface of Vesta. As this was launch to
find out about the formulation of solar system
and then testing of ion drive into space.
Your OWN Forecast
Q1. To what extend do you think objectives are will be achieved?
a.0% - 20% [ ] b. 21% - 40% [ ] c. 41% - 60% [ ]
d.61% - 80% [ ] e. 81% - 100% [ ]
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Figure 6: VESTA IN NATURAL COLOR
(Source: Dawn at a Glance, 2018)

Q2. Do you think water will be found in?
Yes [] No [ ]
Q3. Do you thing close-up images will be captured?
Yes [] No [ ]
How confident you are about your Forecast in
Q1 [85] %,
Q2 [70] % and,
Q3 [90] %
Description
The space probe which will be taking place in coming future time so that it could find out
life on other planets of space in past or present or any another planet. This mission will be
estimating to cost of about £250m to £300m aimed at touching down to different planets of world.
This space exploration will be carrying scientific instruments and gadgets so that they are been
able to find out geology of planets and especially finding water at other planet’s surface. It will
also be carrying robotic arm which is capturing close images of rocks of soil and then for other
specimens (Williams Buczkowski and Scully, 2017). This space craft will be launched from earth
and placed on to right trajectory for interplanetary voyage taking journey to few months.
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Questionnaire
(1) Roughly, how long did you spend on this task?
{Include the time spent reading the description and instructions} [15] Minutes
(2) How likely it is that taking more time would change your forecast?
{0 = almost no chance (1/100) … 10 = practically certain (99/100)} [8] 0-10
(3) If you knew that this case was from the UK, how likely would you be to change your
forecast?
{0 = almost no chance (1/100) … 10 = practically certain (99/100)} [9] 0-10
(4) How many people did you discuss this forecasting problem with? [15] People.
(5) Roughly, how many years’ experience do you have working in a project management
(PM) issues setting?
[10] Years
(6) Roughly, please rate (out of 10)
- Your experience with project management (PM). [7] 0-10
- Your experience with projects similar to this one. [7] 0-10
- Your suitability for predicting the success of major projects. [7] 0-10
(7) If you were contracted to produce such a forecast what process/process would you adopt?
[the same as this one] In what sort of time-scale? [1] year
CONLUSION
From the above forecast and analogies which are creating and finding out evidence of life
in past or present in any other planets of solar system. So, for this, 3 analogies from around the
world which were successful in past 2-3 year were taken so that structural analogies could be
made from the current one. It is concluded that all of them are having same objectives of finding
life on other planets with given budgets and different countries of world. The outcome will be
around 41-60% of objectives that are achieved and possibilities of water will be increased with
taking close up images as well.
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REFERENCES
Books and Journals
Dhanya, M.B., Holmström, M. and Wurz, P., 2017. New suprathermal proton population around
the Moon: Observation by SARA on Chandrayaan‐1. Geophysical Research
Letters, 44(10), pp.4540-4548.
Toner, J.D., Catling, D.C. and Light, B., 2014. Soluble salts at the Phoenix Lander site, Mars: A
reanalysis of the Wet Chemistry Laboratory data. Geochimica et Cosmochimica
Acta, 136, pp.142-168.
Kounaves, S.P., and Weber, A.W., 2014. Identification of the perchlorate parent salts at the
Phoenix Mars landing site and possible implications. Icarus, 232, pp.226-231.
Williams, D.A., Buczkowski, D.L. and Scully, J.E.C., 2017, September. Digital Geologic
Mapping of Vesta and Ceres from NASA’s Dawn Mission. In European Planetary
Science Congress (Vol. 11).
Ciarniello, M., De Sanctis, M.C., and Zambon, F., 2017. Spectrophotometric properties of dwarf
planet Ceres from the VIR spectrometer on board the Dawn mission. Astronomy &
Astrophysics, 598, p.A130.
Vorburger, A., Dhanya, M. and Asamura, K., 2017, April. The Moon observed in Energetic
Neutral Atoms: Review of the Scientific Findings from SARA/CENA on board
Chandrayaan-1. In Geophysical research abstracts (Vol. 19, No. 8MS3-PG-07, p.
10243). Copernicus Publications.
Online
Chandrayaan-1. 2018. [Online]. Accessed through:
<https://www.isro.gov.in/Spacecraft/chandrayaan-1>.
Dawn at a Glance. 2018. [Online]. Accessed through: <https://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/>.
Phoenix Mars Lander Overview. 2018. [Online]. Accessed through:
<https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/overview>.
Phoenix. 2018. [Online]. Accessed through:
<https://mars.nasa.gov/programmissions/missions/past/phoenix/>.
Significant Discovery - Chandrayaan-1 found water on the moon. 2018. [Online]. Accessed
through: <https://www.chandrayaan-i.com/index.php/chandrayaan-1/chandrayaan-1-
updates/109-major-discovery-chandrayaan-1-found-water-on-moon.html>.
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