Judgmental Forecasting with Structured Analogies

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Added on 2020-10-22

Judgmental Forecasting with Structured Analogies

Added on 2020-10-22

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Judgmental Forecasting withStructured Analogies

TABLE OF CONTENTSINTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1MAIN BODY..................................................................................................................................1Your Analogies............................................................................................................................1Your OWN Forecast....................................................................................................................7Questionnaire...............................................................................................................................9CONLUSION..................................................................................................................................9REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................10

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INTRODUCTIONThe current report analyses structural analogies showing similarities and dissimilaritiesbetween certain spacecraft mission which touches another planet aimed to find evidence of life,past and present in any planet or space bodies. So, structural analogies will be done to findsimilarities and difference between various mission by NASA or ISRO or any other space stationslike that of Phoenix, Chandrayaan-1 and Dawn with the prospect space probe so that forecastingcould be done.MAIN BODY Your AnalogiesAnalogy 1 PhoenixDescriptionPhoenix was the space probe which was launched by NASA inyear 2008 landed on Mars in search of microbial life on planetMars.Similarities and differencesSimilarity- both of them were of robotic spacecraft whichlaunched in space to find life of outer spaceDifference- the cost of Phoenix was USD $386 million whilethat of space probe will be between £250m to £300m.Source-MediaSimilarity rating ___9___OUTCOME:Q1.To what extend think objectives have beenachieved?a.0% - 20% [ ] b. 21% - 40% [ ] c. 41% - 60%[ ]d.61% - 80% [ ] e. 81% - 100% [ ]Q2. Was water found? Yes [ ]No [ ]Q3.Have close-up images been captured?Yes []No [ ]Description:1Figure 1: Panorama of rocks near the Phoenix Lander(August 19, 2008)(Source: Phoenix, 2018)

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The following picture was taken by Phoenix in year 2008 confirming that water in formof ice is present on Mars as predicated in 2002. The aim of Phoenix was to find out microbial lifeon Mars with history of water as well (Phoenix, 2018). Total cost for the mission in year 2008was around US $386 million and this was also involving the cost of launch on spacecraft. Thisprogram was operated by University of Arizona and NASA with also other joint collaboration ofuniversities from around the world like that of Denmark, Germany, USA, Canada, UK andSwitzerland as well. Phoenix mission was one out of 7 attempts which was made to land on Marspolar region which was successful on August 2008. The objective of Phoenix wasclear which includes study thehistory of water and all its phaseand searching evidence ofhabitable or biological potentialaswell. So, based on this mission, there were certain results that were generated like that of:Landscape- All the rocks which are present on Mars are small with a diameter of 2-3 and 20-50cm deep as well (Kounaves and Weber, 2014). The water in form of ice is below the surface ofpolygons about 8 inches deep.Weather- The snow of Mars will be forming in part of cirrus clouds at level of -65° C that iscomposing water ice and not carbon dioxide ice as for this ice, level must be of about -120° C.The ice will get collected at surface of Mars after one year of this formation while the speed ofwind is 11-58 Km per hour with average of 36 Km (Phoenix Mars Lander Overview, 2018).during the time of mission of Phoenix there were certain temperature measured like the highestwas -19.6° and lowest was -97.7° C.2Figure 2: Phoenix mission(Source: Phoenix Mars Lander Overview, 2018)

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Judgmental Forecasting with Structured Analogies