2 Executive Summary The underlying report is developed for carrying out financial comparison of the two selected ASX listed entities operating within the same sector of Australia. The companies selected for evaluation purpose are AGL and Origin energy operating within the energy sector of Australia. This is done by evaluation of their liquidity and profitability position which has revealed that AGL has maintained better profitability and liquidity in comparison to Origin Energy. Also, it has better weighted average cost of capital and also has maintained better capital structure in comparison to Origin Energy. As such, it is recommend to the investors to invest within AGL Energy as it has lower operational and financial risk and is expected to produce higher financial results in the coming period of time.
3 Contents Executive Summary.........................................................................................................................2 Introduction......................................................................................................................................4 Part 1: Description of the Companies (Discussion on operation and comparative advantages of the two chosen companies)..............................................................................................................4 AGL Energy Limited...................................................................................................................4 Origin Energy Limited.................................................................................................................5 Part 2: Analysis and Comparison of the Liquidity and Profitability of the Selected Companies. . .5 Part 2.1: Profitability Analysis.....................................................................................................6 Part 2.2: Liquidity Analysis.........................................................................................................7 Part 3: Share price movement analysis............................................................................................8 Part 3.1: Movements in the monthly share price of both companies over the last three years....8 Part 3.2: Report..........................................................................................................................11 Part 4: Calculation and Analysis of WACC..................................................................................11 Part 4.1: Calculation of current capital structure weights of both the companies.....................11 Part 4.2: Calculation of WACC of both the companies.............................................................12 Part 5: Capital Structure Policy.....................................................................................................14 Part 5.1: Identification and comparison of capital structure policy of two selected companies through using the capital structure ratios...................................................................................14 Part 5.2: Identification of favorable and unfavorable financial leverage position of both the companies and analysis of effect of fresh issue of equity capital on the firm’s capital structure and EPS of the both the companies............................................................................................15 Part 6: Recommendation Letter.....................................................................................................17 Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................17 References......................................................................................................................................18
4 Introduction The present report is developed for providing an understanding of the importance of financial analysis process for evaluation of the future growth prospects of a company. Financial analysis can be described as a process of carrying out evaluation of the business projects and other organizational activities for determining whether a company is profitable or not in the future contexts. As such, this report carries out the evaluation of the financial performance of two ASX listed entities for providing financial and investment advice to their investors. The overall financial analysis of the selected companies is carried out with the use of information presented within the financial statements of the selected companies. The companies selected for evaluation purpose are AGL and Origin Energy, operating within the energy sector of Australia. The financial analysis of both the companies is conducted by comparison of their liquidity and profitability position and examination of the monthly share prices movements of both the companies within 3 years. This is followed by calculation of their weighted average cost of capitalandprovidingacomparisonoftheircapitalstructurepolicy.Lastly,itprovides recommendation to the investors regarding the investment portfolio to be created by the selection of either of the company on the basis of their overall financial evaluation. Part 1: Description of the Companies (Discussion on operation and comparative advantages of the two chosen companies) AGL Energy Limited AGL Energy Ltd, is recognized to be a leading Australian listed company that is involved in production and retailing of electricity and gas. The company generates electricity both for residential and commercial purpose and is headquartered within Sydney, Australia. The company generates energy from variety of sources such as thermal power, natural gas, wind power, hydroelectricity, solar energy, and gas storage and steam resources. It is recognized to be one of the largest developers of renewable energy assets and is also largest private owner for supplying gas and electricity within Australia. It is categorized to conduct its operations mainly in the four segments that include customer markets, wholesale market, group operations and investment segments. The company strategic vision is to deliver affordable, reliable and sustainable energy solutions to the customers by developing innovative energy solutions. This can be regarded as
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5 the comparative advantage of the company over its competitors as it has maintained one of the largest electricity generation portfolios via investing in renewable energy sections for harnessing electricity without environment pollution (AGL Energy Limited, 2018). Origin Energy Limited Origin Energy, on the other hand, is regarded to be the main competitor of AGL Energy which is also involved in distribution of gas and electricity products to household and business sectors within Australia listed on ASX. The core business area of the company involves exploration of natural gas, retailing of energy and generation of electricity. The energy has developed an extensive upstream gas deposits. The gas deposits were stated to be a major part of the coals seam gas boom of Queensland and have lead to the development of 3 LNG processing facilities. These developments have lead to the evaluation of energy business of Origin and change its character from being a simply utility business to a heavily leveraged oil and gas company. The company has derived its competitive advantage from developing its strategic priorities of providing cleaner sources of energy by becoming a low cost operator within the energy sector of Australia (Origin Energy Limited, 2018). Part 2: Analysis and Comparison of the Liquidity and Profitability of the Selected Companies The comparison of the liquidity and profitability position of both the selected companies can be carried out with the use of ratio analysis technique. The technique of ratio analysis can be described as a most useful method of financial analysis that involves evaluation of the different operating and financial aspects of a company. The technique is used for evaluation of the relation between different financial aspects of a company. Financial Data of both companies for last 3 years Financial ItemsAGL EnergyOrigin Energy 201620172018201620172018 AUD in millionAUD in million Net profit $ (408.00) $ 539.00 $ 1,587.00 $ (589.00) $ (2,226.00) $ 218.00
6 Net Sales/Revenue $ 11,150.00 $ 12,359.00 $ 12,816.00 $ 11,923.00 $ 13,646.00 $ 14,604.00 Total Assets $ 14,604.00 $ 14,458.00 $ 14,639.00 $ 28,898.00 $ 25,199.00 $ 24,257.00 AverageTotal Assets $ 15,218.50 $ 14,531.00 $ 14,548.50 $ 31,132.50 $ 27,048.50 $ 24,728.00 Shareholder's Equity $ 7,915.00 $ 7,574.00 $ 8,390.00 $ 14,509.00 $ 11,396.00 $ 11,804.00 Average Shareholder Equity $ 8,360.50 $ 7,744.50 $ 7,982.00 $ 13,616.00 $ 12,952.50 $ 11,600.00 Current Assets $ 3,587.00 $ 3,625.00 $ 3,806.00 $ 3,571.00 $ 5,011.00 $ 3,766.00 Current Liabilities $ 2,553.00 $ 2,731.00 $ 2,308.00 $ 2,889.00 $ 3,854.00 $ 4,449.00 Inventory $ 414.00 $ 351.00 $ 370.00 $ 248.00 $ 138.00 $ 196.00 Quick Assets $ 3,173.00 $ 3,274.00 $ 3,436.00 $ 3,323.00 $ 4,873.00 $ 3,570.00 (AGL Annual Report, 2017-2018) & (Origin Annual Report, 2017-2018). Part 2.1: Profitability Analysis This type of quantitative analysis is mainly used for evaluation of the financial wealth of a company for evaluationof the efficiencygeneratingrevenuefor itsshareholders. The profitability position of both the companies can be carried out by the calculation of following ratios: Profitability Ratios of Both Companies for last three years RatiosAGL EnergyOrigin Energy 201620172018201620172018 Net profit Ratio-3.66%4.36%12.38%-4.94%-16.31%1.49% Return on assets-2.68%3.71%10.91%-1.89%-8.23%0.88%
7 Return on Equity-4.88%6.96%19.88%-4.33%-17.19%1.88% ï‚·Net Profit Ratio:The ratio depicts the profitability realized by the companies after meeting all the operational expenses and income tax. It can be stated on the basis of above table, that the ratio for AGL Energy has depicted a larger increase as compared with that of Origin Energy. The ratio for AGL has increased from -3.66% to 12.38% whereas for Origin energy has only gradually reduced from -4.94% to 1.49%. Thus, it can be said that AGL has realized higher net profitability in comparison to Origin Energy over the financial period of 2016-2018 (Krantz, 2016). ï‚·Return on Assets (ROA):The ratio depicts the efficiency of a company to generate earnings through the use of its asset base. The ratio for AGL Energy is better than that of Origin Energy as depicted in the above table over the financial period 2016-2018. The ratio has shown a larger increasing trend from -2.68 to 10.91% whereas for that of Origin Energy it is much lower and also shown a small increasing trend from -1.89% to 0.88%, ï‚·Return on Equity (ROE):The ratio is used for measuring the financial performance of a company by assessing its effectiveness to generate earnings with the use of shareholder investments. The ratio for AGL Energy is far better and has increased largely from - 4.88% to 19.88% whereas for that of Origin Energy has depicted only a slight increase in trend from -4.33 to 1.88% only over the financial period 2016-2018 (Jones, 2015). The overall analysis has concluded that profitability position of AGL Energy is far better than Origin Energy and it is able to realize higher revenue from its sales. Part 2.2: Liquidity Analysis The analysis is carried out for analyzing the ability of a company to meet its financial obligations in a timely manner. The liquidity position of both the companies can be assessed by calculation of following ratios: Liquidity Ratios of Both Companies for last three years RatiosAGL EnergyOrigin Energy 201620172018201620172018 Current Ratio1.411.331.651.241.300.85 Quick Ratio1.241.201.491.151.260.80
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8 ï‚·Current Ratio:It is a liquidity ratio that measures the ability of a company to meet its financial obligations with its current basset base. The current ratio for AGL Energy has shown an increasing trend from the year 2016-2018. The ratio has increased from 1.41 to 1.65 whereas for that of Origin Energy has depicted a decreasing trend from 1.24 to 0.85 over the financial year 2016-2018. Thus, it can be said that there is more risk in case of Origin Energy for not meeting its financial obligations in the future context. ï‚·Quick Ratio:The ratio measures the ability of a company to meet its short-term financial obligations with its most liquid assets such as cash resources (Damodaran, 2011). The ratio for AGL has improved from 1.24 to 1.49 over the financial period 2016-2018 whereas for that of Origin Energy has been decreased from 1.15 to 0.80. This means that Origin Energy need to improve the inflow of its cash resources to effectively meet its short-term financial obligations. It can be said on the basis of liquidity analysis that AGL Energy Limited liquidity position is fare better than Origin Energy. Part 3: Share price movement analysis Part 3.1: Movements in the monthly share price of both companies over the last three years It has been decided to plot the share price movement from 01/01/2016 to 31/12/2018 (3 Years). Note: For convenience purpose it has been decided to scale the share price value of all ordinaries to $ 100 so that it is easy to made the graph
9 01/12/2015 01/02/2016 01/04/2016 01/06/2016 01/08/2016 01/10/2016 01/12/2016 01/02/2017 01/04/2017 01/06/2017 01/08/2017 01/10/2017 01/12/2017 01/02/2018 01/04/2018 01/06/2018 01/08/2018 01/10/2018 01/12/2018$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 Share Price Movement AGL Energy Origin Energy All Ordinaries
11 Part 3.2: Report On the basis of above graph it can be said that shares prices of AGL Energy and Origin Energy are not moving in same trend as when share of AGL Energy moves share price of Origin Energy moves down. Share prices of Origin Energy are highly correlated to each other due to similar trend in their graph as compare to AGL Energy. Share prices of AGL Energy are more volatile in nature as compare to Origin Energy due to high standard deviation (Calculated in Excel sheet). There are number of factors that impact the movements of share price such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, change in economic policies etc. Part 4: Calculation and Analysis of WACC The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) provides an analysis of the cost of capital of a firm by assessing the proportion of each category of capital that is debt and equity within the capital structure of a firm. WACC is required for calculation of the firm value as it is stated to be minimum rate of return on the basis of which a project is accepted. Part 4.1: Calculation of current capital structure weights of both the companies On the basis of analysis of financial statements of both the companies it has been found that they are financed with debt and equity capital with no use of preference share capital. Current capital structure weight refers to the proportion of debt and equity capital in relation of total capital. In making the calculation market value of equity capital will be considered and book value of debt capital will be considered. Calculation will be performed as on 31 December, 2018 as market value of equity shares and debt value will be taken on this date. Calculation of market value of equity capital Calculation of Market value of equity capital AGL EnergyOrigin Energy Market value of Share price (As on 31 Dec, 18) $ 20.60(Yahoo Finance:AGL, 2019) $ 6.47(Yahoo Finance:Origin Energy, 2019) Weighted average number of shares issued in the market655825043.001757442268.00
12 Market Value of Equity Capital (As on 31 Dec, 18) $ 13,509,995,885.80 $ 11,370,651,473.96 Calculation of book value of debt capital Calculation of Book value of Debt capital AGL EnergyOrigin Energy Short Term Debt Capital$19,000,000.00$1,089,000,000.00 Long Term Debt Capital$2,822,000,000.00$6,350,000,000.00 Total Debt Capital$2,841,000,000.00$7,439,000,000.00 Weights of Both the capitals Calculation of Weights of both the capital ParticularsEquity CapitalDebt CapitalTotal Capital AGL Energy$ 13,509,995,885.80$2,841,000,000.00$ 16,350,995,885.80 Weights82.62%17.38%100.00% Origin Energy$ 11,370,651,473.96$7,439,000,000.00$ 18,809,651,473.96 Weights60.45%39.55%100.00% (AGL Annual Report, 2017-2018) & (Origin Annual Report, 2017-2018). Part 4.2: Calculation of WACC of both the companies Formula: WACC =E V* Re +D V* Rd * (1-Tc) Where: ï‚·E: Value of Equity capital (Market Value) ï‚·D: Market value or book value of debt capital ï‚·V: (E+D) Sum of equity and debt capital employed by the company in the respective year
13 ï‚·E/V: Proportion of equity capital in the capital structure of company ï‚·D/V: Proportion of Debt capital in the capital structure of the company ï‚·Re: Rate of cost of Equity capital ï‚·Rd: Rate of cost of Debt capital ï‚·Tc: Tax rate Calculation of WACC (As on 31 Dec, 2018) ParticularsAGL EnergyOrigin Energy Value of Equity capital (Market Value)$ 13,509,995,885.80$ 11,370,651,473.96 Book value of debt capital$2,841,000,000.00$7,439,000,000.00 Weight of Equity Capital82.62%60.45% Weight of debt capital17.38%39.55% Cost of Equity15.00%15.00% Cost of Debt7.00%7.00% Tax Rate29.50%30.00% Weighted Average Cost of Capital13.25%11.01% On the basis of calculation it has been found that WACC of AGL Energy was greater than Origin Energy and it implies that AGL Energy has to pay more for financing its assets as compare to AGL Energy. But it is also important to consider the proportion of equity capital in both the companies. Origin Energy uses more of debt capital as compare to AGL Energy that indicates that Origin Energy depends more on leverage capital which that higher risk as compare to equity capital. Overall it can be said that Origin has better WACC as compare to AGL Energy Limited (Krantz, 2016). Part 5: Capital Structure Policy Part 5.1: Identification and comparison of capital structure policy of two selected companies through using the capital structure ratios The capital structure policy refers to the policy adopted by a firm to indicate the proportion of debt and equity used for financing the asset base. The capital structure policy of both the companies can be analyzed by the calculation of the following capital structure ratios:
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14 Financial Data of both companies for last 3 years Financial ItemsAGL EnergyOrigin Energy 201620172018201620172018 AUD in millionAUD in million EBIT $ 521.00 $ 1,319.00 $ 1,619.00 $ (177.00) $ (1,522.00) $ 702.00 Finance Cost $ 236.00 $ 237.00 $ 223.00 $ 560.00 $ 553.00 $ 500.00 Total Liabilities $ 6,689.00 $ 6,884.00 $ 6,249.00 $ 14,389.00 $ 13,803.00 $ 12,453.00 Shareholder's Equity $ 7,915.00 $ 7,574.00 $ 8,390.00 $ 14,509.00 $ 11,396.00 $ 11,804.00 Total Assets $ 14,604.00 $ 14,458.00 $ 14,639.00 $ 28,898.00 $ 25,199.00 $ 24,257.00 Capital Structure Ratios of Both Companies for last three years RatiosAGL EnergyOrigin Energy 201620172018201620172018 Debt Ratio45.80%47.61%42.69%49.79%54.78%51.34% Debt to Equity ratio84.51%90.89%74.48%99.17%121.12%105.50% Interest Coverage Ratio2.215.577.26-0.32-2.751.40 (AGL Annual Report, 2017-2018) & (Origin Annual Report, 2017-2018). Debt Ratio The ratio is used for measuring the extent of financial leverage possesses by a company by depicting the relation between total debts with total assets. It provides a depiction of the proportion of assets of a company that are financed by the debt resources. The ratio for AGL Energy has depicted a decreasing trend from the year 2016-2018 which shows that it has reduced the proportion of debt in its capital structure. On the contrary, Origin Energy has depicted an increasing trend over the selected financial period as depicted above. This shows that the
15 company has increased the proportion of debt in its capital structure which indicates a financial risk for the future growth of the company (Brigham & Michael, 2013). Debt to Enterprise Ratio The ratio provides a measure of the overall capital structure of a company by providing an assessment of the overall debt to its total capital. The debt to equity ratio has also depicted that the proportion of debt in comparison to equity ahs decreased over the selected financial period whereas for Origin Energy has depicted an increasing trend. This states that Origin Energy is using more debt in comparison to equity for funding its capital indicating less profitability for shareholders due to higher interest payments. Interest Coverage Ratio The ratio is used for determining the effectiveness of a company to pay interest on its outstanding debt in a timely manner. It is calculated by depicting the relation of the company earnings before interest and taxes with that of its interest expenses for a respective financial period. The ratio has depicted an increasing trend for AGL Energy whereas for origin energy has only shown a gradual increase form 2016-2018. The ratio for the year 2016-2017 is negative for Origin Energy depicting that it is not able to meet its interest obligations on time which can prove to be a major financial risk for its future financial growth (Damodaran, 2011). Part 5.2: Identification of favorable and unfavorable financial leverage position of both the companies and analysis of effect of fresh issue of equity capital on the firm’s capital structure and EPS of the both the companies Impact of fresh issue of equity shares EPS and Capital Structure of both companies ParticularsAGL EnergyOrigin Energy 20182018 AUS $'000AUS $'000 Debt Capital (Total Liabilities) $ 6,249.00 $ 12,453.00
16 Equity Capital $ 8,390.00 $ 11,804.00 Profit $ 1,587.00 $ 218.00 WANS (in millions)655.83 $ 1,757.44 Debt to Equity Ratio (Before The fresh Issue of Equity Capital)74.48%105.50% EPS(BeforeThefreshIssueof Equity Capital)$2.420$0.1240 Addition in value of equity capital (in millions) $ 10.00 $ 10.00 Par value of each equity share $ 10.00 $ 10.00 Increase in equity shares1.001.00 New WANS (in thousands)656.831,758.44 New values equity capital $ 8,400.00 $ 11,814.00 Profit $ 1,587.00 $ 218.00 Debt Capital (Total Liabilities) $ 6,249.00 $ 12,453.00 New debt to equity ratio74.39%105.41% New EPS$2.416$0.1240
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17 Part 6: Recommendation Letter It is recommended to the investors on the basis of financial analysis of AGL and Origin Energy operating within the energy sector of Australia that they should invest in AGL Energy. This can be stated on the basis of liquidity and profitability analysis of the two selected companies which are far better for AGL Energy as compared with Origin Energy. AGL Energy has realized higher profitability and also maintained adequate asset resources over the financial period 2016-2018 and as such has less financial risk. Also, the capital structure policy for AGL energy is better as it has maintained an optimum mi of debt and equity. Origin energy is using more debt in its capital structure nada los have financial risk of not meeting its interest obligations in timely manner. Also, WACC for AGL Energy is higher than Origin Energy and therefore it is recommended to the client for investing within AGL Energy, However, they should analyse the future performance for Origin Energy before taking final investment decision for investing within this company (Madura, 2014). Conclusion It is summarized on the basis of overall report analysis that AGL and Origin Energy both are leading energy companies within Australia. However, the financial performance of Origin Energy is much better than AGL Energy as analyzed over the selected financial period 2016- 2018.Theanalysisisbasedontheuseofratioanalysis,examinationofWACCand determination of their capital structure.
18 References AGL Annual Report. 2017. Annual Report and Financial results. [Online]. Available on: https://www.agl.com.au/-/media/agl/about-agl/documents/media-center/asx-and-media- releases/2017/170825-agl-207-annual-report-asx.pdf? la=en&hash=5ED3160547B1054044D524FC89664E52[Accessed on: 23 January, 2019]. AGL Annual Report. 2018. Annual Report and Financial results. [Online]. Available on: https://www.2018annualreport.agl.com.au/xmlpages/resources/TXP/agl_energy/finrep/pdf/ AGL_Energy_Annual_Report_2018.pdf[Accessed on: 23 January, 2019]. AGL Energy Limited. 2018.OurCompany.[Online].Availableat: https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/who-we-are/our-company[Accessed on: 22 January 2019]. Brigham, F., & Michael C. 2013.Financial management: Theory & practice. Boston, USA: Cengage Learning. Damodaran, A, 2011.Applied corporate finance. USA: John Wiley & sons. Davies, T. & Crawford, I., 2011.Business accounting and finance. London: Pearson. Jones, S. 2015.The Routledge Companion to Financial Accounting Theory. London: Routledge. Krantz, M. 2016.Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. USA: John Wiley & Sons. Madura, J. 2014.Financial Markets and Institutions. USA: Cengage Learning. Origin Annual Report. 2017. Annual Report and Financial results. [Online]. Available on: https://www.originenergy.com.au/content/dam/origin/about/investors-media/annual%20review %202017/AnnualReport_FY2017.pdf[Accessed on: 23 January, 2019]. Origin Annual Report. 2018. Annual Report and Financial results. [Online]. Available on: https://www.originenergy.com.au/content/dam/origin/about/investors-media/documents/ Origin_2018_Annual_Report.pdf[Accessed on: 23 January, 2019]. OriginEnergy.2018.Whoweare.[Online].Availableat: https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/who-we-are.html[Accessed on: 22 January 2019].
19 YahooFinance:AGL.2019.HistoricalPrices.[Online].Availableon: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGL.AX/history?p=AGL.AX[Accessed on: 23 January, 2019]. YahooFinance:OriginEnergy.2019.HistoricalPrices.[Online].Availableon: https://in.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORG.AX/history?p=ORG.AX[Accessedon:23January, 2019].