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Macroeconomics 2 AssignmentMacroeconomic Forecasting and AnalysisDue dates: 8 August 2016 (7pm) e-submission via BlackboardWeight:This assignment makes up 25% of the total marks for the course.General outline and Instructions:In this assignment you will be asked to do two things.In Part A you need to forecast certain macroeconomic variables prior to their officialrelease.In Part B you need to discuss your forecasts, the significance of the data for theeconomy and develop an opinion and commentate about certain economic issues.Please take note of the due dates for each part of the assignment.1.Part A: Macroeconomic ForecastingProvide forecasts for the variables listed below by inserting a number in the grey boxes. Insubmitting Part A of the assignment you must submit the entire document. Note that Part A of theassignment will be marked in conjunction with Part B.DataData source or where thedata can be foundRelease orforecast dateForecastCPI (% change from a year earlier inJuly 2016)SingStat(www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#1)23 Aug 2016Real GDP (Final, % change from ayear earlier in 2016Q2)SingStat(www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#1)25 Aug 2016(or earlier)Straits Times Share Index(www.bloomberg.com/quote/FSSTI:IND)25 Aug 2016Singapore Dollar vs US Dollar(www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSGD:CUR)25 Aug 2016
2.Part B: Macroeconomic AnalysisYour task for Part B of the assignment is to write a commentary and discussion piece on theeconomy similar in nature to that which would be written by a macroeconomist from a major bankor consultancy. I would like you to outline your opinion on the state of the economy. Pleasecomplete your assignment by writing in the grey box provided below. Some instructions on how togo about completing Part B of the assignment are list below. Please follow these instructions.General advice:Please have a look at the marking rubric below with regard to how the assignment will beassessed. The idea of the assignment is for you to outline your views regarding the state ofthe global and domestic economy and use economic reasoning to justify these views. Thefocus is primarily on the reasoning path you follow.This is a written assignment. No diagrams, charts, graphs or pictures should be included.Marks will be deducted for their inclusion.Note that the word limit for the assignment is 750 words. You are asked to include yourword count at the end of the assignment. This must be strictly adhered to. Marks will bededucted if you exceed the word limit. Part of the challenge of the assignment is to writeclearly and succinctly in getting your point across.Specific advice:In your commentary piece I would like you to addressfour specificissues in each of four sections.The topics of each section are discussed in below:1. Recent data and developments: Discuss how your forecasts for the CPI and GDP comparedwith the actual numbers. You may want to outline why there were errors, if any, in yourforecasts. Outline the implications of the data for fiscal and monetary policy makers.2. The global context: Outline what you think are some of the key recent global economicevents which have impacted, or are impacting, on the domestic economy. These could beevents which occurred up to 5 years ago but are still influencing the domestic economy.3. Risks to the economy: Here discuss the most significant risks that the domestic economyfaces. Outline one risk that would move aggregate demand (AD) to the left and one thatwould move aggregate supply (AS) to the left. Also, discuss your assessment of theprobability of each event occurring.4. Long-run outlook: Provide a forecast for Real GDP growth over the period 2016-2036 forthe economy. Outline your reasons for such a forecast with regard to the long run growthdrivers and the key factors which you think will influence growth in future. The tablecontains some historical data on the economy which might be useful in your discussion.
1.Recent data and developments2.The global context3.Risks to the economy4.Long-run outlookTable: Historical Growth Statistics for the Singaporean EconomyAnnual Average GrowthRate:1980-19992001-2011Real GDP8.1%7.9%Population2.4%2.6%Employment3.7%4.1%Human Capital1.4%0.7%Physical Capital9.2%10.3%Proportion:Employment/Population49.0%54.4%Source: Penn World Tables 8.0 (Feenstra, Inklaar and Timmer, 2013)Word Count (all words above this line including data in the table): ___ words (max 750)ReferencesFeenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2013), "The Next Generation of the PennWorld Table" available for download at:www.ggdc.net/pwt.