Macroeconomics: Brexit and Fiscal Policy, Factors Affecting Interest Rate Decision
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This article discusses the impact of Brexit on the UK economy and the effectiveness of fiscal policy. It also explores the factors that influence interest rate decisions, including monetary stability, economic growth, and spare capacity.
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Running Head: MACROECONOMICS Macroeconomics Name of the Student Name of the University Course ID
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1MACROECONOMICS Table of Contents Answer to question 1.......................................................................................................................2 Brexit referendum and effectiveness of fiscal policy..................................................................2 Answer to question 2.......................................................................................................................4 Factors affecting interest rate decision........................................................................................4 References list..................................................................................................................................8
2MACROECONOMICS Answer to question 1 Brexit referendum and effectiveness of fiscal policy Prior to Brexit in June, 2016 United Kingdom was one of the fastest growing nation across the world. However, after Brexit economic growth has significantly slowed down following internal and external changes in the economy. Slow economic growth in United Kingdom is representative of a material loss of Britain in the global market. Productivity growth has been slowed down with output per hour remained almost flat or declined. Another factor contributingtoasluggisheconomicgrowthisdepreciationofcurrency(Young2017). Depreciation of sterling results in an increase in price of exported item leading to a deficit in trade balance. The economy thus in a need of effective policy support from government and regulatory authority. Government in an economy can provide stimulus to the economy either through fiscal policy or through monetary policy. The policymakers are facing problem in formulating suitable policies in a phase of uncertainty about future productivity growth.The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assumed productivity growth to be increased from a current rate of 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent but 2021. Despite the slow productivity growth, policy maker still remains optimistic about economic recovery as experienced after global financial crisis in 2008. Based upon these assumptions government announced no change in spending plans and hoped to maintain a balanced budget (Johnson and Mitchell 2017). However, there remain substantial risk regarding the assumption of productivity growth and hence, design and effectiveness of fiscal policy. If weak productivity is continued for a very long period, then government might experience a net borrowing of substantial size.
3MACROECONOMICS On the front of fiscal policy government then has three option to cut the net borrowing. First is to maintain a tight policy regarding government spending. Second is to increase tax rate and third is to accept that it is not possible to achieve a balanced budget in the next few years. People have less tendency to accept a tighter government spending (Sinn 2018). United Kingdomâs current government is not at all high and a further reduction might report in an austerity fatigue. This indicates higher taxes to be a more preferable option. Given current economic and political environment, increasing taxes might prove unpalatable. United Kingdom government therefore seeks to utilize full fiscal space in line with existing rules to accommodate post-Brexit economic scenario. In this regards, government aims to reduce net borrowing of the public sector below 2 percent and a gradual decline of net debt of public sector as a percentage of GDP. The focus of United Kingdom government to reduces public debt as a percentage of GDP is however misplaced. A portion of public debt is going to the service sector which is unlikely to undergo sudden change (Thompson 2017). Fiscal policy is able to provide necessary stimulus to the economy in the form of rising government expenditure or reducing tax rate. Fallacy of fiscal policy is that it might end up with huge public debt. The Increased net borrowing has a detrimental effect on the economy. In order to recover public borrowing government needs to take a tight fiscal policy (Miles, Scott and Breedon 2012). The contractionary fiscal policy tends to create resentment in the economy. In a phase of uncertain economic and political environment, people are unlikely to accept either a decline in government spending or an increase in the tax rate (Gudginet al.2018). Fiscal policy thus can make short term recovery but at the cost of reducing long term growth prospects. United Kingdom needs a more comprehensive approach to make quick recovery from post-Brexit shock. More preciously, the strategic version of Abenomics is now more suitable in
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4MACROECONOMICS context of United Kingdom economy. The strategy of Abenomics as proposed by Japanâs prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has three components monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reform. The monetary policy in United Kingdom is designed by Bank of England. BOE controls economic activity by influencing borrowing cost, exchanging securities through open market operation, changing supply of money or through different lending and funding program. The monetary policy has the advantage that it can stimulate economic activity in the quickest possible ways. This is reason why monetary policy is considered as the first escape route from recession in the post-Brexit period (theguardian.com 2018). Structural reform involve change in the structure of the economy to make it work more effectively. This include reform in health and education system and infrastructural development. The economy needs to understand that Brexit has a long term implication for the economy that cannot be healed with short term policy measures. Rather it needs a combination to sustainable policies to bring back the economy to the previous path of growth and development. Answer to question 2 Factors affecting interest rate decision In the phase of sudden economic shocks, macroeconomic stability of an economy gets disturbed. Such sudden shocks are unlikely to be overcome in the hands of free market forces. Instead, it needs government intervention to overcome the shock and restore economic stability. Monetary policy is a demand side policy to control economic activity. Central bank of a nation has the responsibility of designing monetary policy (Goodwinet al. 2015). The common tool used by the central bank is interest rate. Interest rate is the cost of borrowing fund. A change in interest rate by changing borrowing cost affects consumption and investment decision. An
6MACROECONOMICS (Source: Bernanke, Antonovics and Frank 2015) Given below are some factors that influence whether central bank will raise the interest rate Monetary Stability One primary objective of central bank is to ensure stability in price level and confidence of domestic currency. Price level is considered to be under control as long as it is within the targeted inflation rate as set by the central bank. The target is to maintain a low to moderate inflation rate in the economy (Kiley and Roberts 2017). Once the inflation exceeds the targeted inflation rate, it is rational for the central bank to raise the interest rate. Inflation rate thus has a key role to play in determining movement of the interest rate within the economy. The policy of raising interest rate is also supported on the ground of boosting confidence of domestic currency. With a lower interest currency foreign investors withdraw their fund from the nation. The outflow of foreign capital causes a depreciation of currency reducing value of the domestic currency in the world market. In order to revamp the value of currency central bank then raises the interest rate. With a higher interest rate, investors abroad are interested to invest in the nation following a higher return from the investment (GalĂ 2015). This raises the demand for concerned currency along with an increase in relative price. Economic growth and underlying unemployment rate In the phase of economic contraction, due to lack of demand many production unit closes down. As output fall, there is a decline in employment opportunity causing unemployment and job losses to rise in the economy (Miles, Scott and Breedon 2012). During this time, central banks considers a downward revision in the interest rate. The lower borrowing cost then encourage investors to make more investment. With increase in productive investment new
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7MACROECONOMICS employment opportunities are created causing a decline in unemployment (CĂșrdia and Woodford 2016). With productive expansion aggregate output in the economy increases and so is the economic growth. Spare capacity The spare capacity of a nation is measured in terms of output gap. Output gap measures the difference between actual and potential GDP. The presence of higher output gap indicates that the economy fails to achieve full extent of growth. Additional stimulus needs to be provided to explore the unutilized capacity. This can be done through a decline in interest rate. On the other hand, if the economy operates beyond the level of potential output then that cannot be sustained for a long period of time (Bernanke, Antonovics and Frank 2015). In order to make a contraction in volatile economic activity the central bank raises interest rate.
9MACROECONOMICS Miles, D., Scott, A. and Breedon, F., 2012.Macroeconomics: understanding the global economy. John Wiley & Sons. Sinn, H. W., 2018.The ECB's Fiscal Policy(No. w24613). National Bureau of Economic Research. Thompson, H., 2017. Inevitability and contingency: The political economy of Brexit.The British journal of politics and international relations,19(3), 434-449. Young,G.,2017.Commentary:MonetaryandFiscalPolicyNormalisationasBrexitis Negotiated.National Institute Economic Review,242(1), F4-F9.