The Role of Overconfidence in Surgeon's Estimations

This presentation discusses the potential role of overconfidence in the surgeon's reported estimations. It explores the impact of overconfidence on decision making in medical practices, focusing on the tendency to overestimate and be excessively certain in their estimations. The presentation also highlights the negative consequences of overconfidence in surgical decision making.


Managerial
Decision Making
Discuss the potential role of
overconfidence in the surgeon’s
reported
estimations


 Decision making in medical practices
 Stakeholder Theory
 Importance of Decision making
MANAGERIAL DECISION
MAKING


 Report outlined under Health Technology
Assessment
 Adopting acceptance to implement required
results
 Reducing the stakes, Improving physicians
efficiency
PURPOSE


 Overconfidence can be a cause of diagnostic
error in medical practice.
 Physicians in general underappreciate
increase the likelihood of wrong diagnosis
 It focus on the tendency to overconfidence
based on both intrinsic and systemically
reinforced factors.
INTRODUCTION


 This can be defined is having excessive faith
regarding the person knowing the truth.
 Even the most trained and professional
individual face issue in predicting the 100%
outcome of his decision (Spatz, Krumholz, &
Moulton, 2016).
OVER PRECISION


 The influence determine refusal of having
different opinion or feedback especially after
taking the decision and proceed with the
process
 It focus on being excessively certain that their
determine estimating can be negative in their
future values.
INFLUENCE OF OVER PRECISION
AND OVERCONFIDENCE


 The most common perception about over
estimation include:
 Thinking about the person to perform better in
something that the actual situation is
 Thinking that every factor is in control
 Avoiding misconception about being well-
organized and overrating their efficiency levels.
OVER ESTIMATION


 The basic facts to be considered with over
estimation determine
 Self-enhancement – Positively as opposed to
accurately
 Hopefulness
 Self-defense
FACTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVER
ESTIMATION


 It take place on easy tasks and under place the
hard decision
 But in medical practices, surgeons are require
to make sure that they have consider the hard
decisions and take them relevantly
 It increases the wrong tendency to believe that
the individual is better than other and cannot
take a wrong decision
 It has negative consequences, it can also
increase the cost with the surgery
WHY OVER PLACEMENT?


 Removal of benign tumor
 Surgeon Recommendations
 The phrase “Good Luck” by nurse
THE CASE STUDY


Considering the case, the options include
 Desire for Patients’ happiness
 work in higher occupations
 Request greater expense to do the task.
 overestimate her relative aptitudes
ESTIMATION OF CASE STUDY
WITH OVER CONFIDENCE


1) 70% chance of severely affecting your mental
function within the next 10 years (Santema,
Stoffer, Kunneman, Koelemay & Ubbink, 2017).
2) She states also that her procedure has a 40%
chance of affecting your mental capacity
(anywhere from mild to severe) after the
operation
OPTIONS OF DECISION
MAKING IN THIS SITUATION


Santema, T. K., Stoffer, E. A., Kunneman, M.,
Koelemay, M. J., & Ubbink, D. T. (2017). What are the
decision-making preferences of patients in vascular
surgery? A mixed-methods study. BMJ open, Vol.
7(2), e013272.
Spatz, E., Krumholz, H. & Moulton, B., 2016.
The new era of informed consent: getting to a
reasonable-patient standard through shared decision
making. Jama, Vol. 315(19), pp. 2063-2064.
REFERENCES


 Weckbach, S., Kocak, T., Reichel, H. & Lattig, F.,
2016. A survey on patients’ knowledge and
expectations during informed consent for spinal
surgery: can we improve the shared decision-making
process?. Patient safety in surgery, Vol. 10(1), p. 15.
 Makridakis, S., Kirkham, R., Wakefield, A.,
Papadaki, M., Kirkham, J., & Long, L. (2019).
Forecasting, uncertainty and risk; perspectives on
clinical decision-making in preventive and curative
medicine. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2),
659-666.
REFERENCES (Cont.)